Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -140
The White Sox are underachieving early on, but I like them to rise to the occasion tonight after getting pounded by KC yesterday. I haven't been impressed by either of tonight's starters, but I have to side with Garcia because he has been pretty solid at home - 2.57 ERA, 0.857 WHIP. Plus, the White Sox are 9-4 in Garcia's last 13 home starts and 13-6 in his last 19 starts as a home favorite. Meanwhile, the Royals are just 6-18 in Bannister's last 24 starts, including 1-6 in his last 7 road starts. The Royals are just 17-41 in their last 58 meetings in this series in Chicago, and we'll fade them on the road here tonight.
Jack Jones
Florida Marlins +125
The Florida Marlins are showing excellent value at home Wednesday against the San Francisco Giants. They lost in extra innings to the Giants after coming from behind to take a 1-run lead into the 9th, only to blow the save. This team will come out with a chip on their shoulder and get after Barry Zito, who is certainly overachieving through the first month of the season and thus fading him makes for a solid value play. Florida is hitting .278 and scoring 5.9 RPG at home this season as one of the most explosive home teams in the league.
This play also falls under a system that is 29-9 (76%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against all teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (SAN FRANCISCO) - with a starting pitcher who is undefeated after 5 or more starts, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. Fading this undefeated starters has been very profitable as you can see because they are overvalued, and that's the case with Zito tonight. He hasn't just magically turned it around this season, he's just been hot through the first month. It won't last. Take the Marlins.
Black Widow
1* on Atlanta Braves -145
Atlanta cannot wait to run their best starter, Tommy Hanson, out to the mound Wednesday to put an end to their 8-game road losing streak. Hanson is 2-2 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in 5 starts this season, and he has been even better on the road posting a 0.82 ERA through 2 road starts. Hanson is 2-0 with a 2.28 ERA and 0.831 WHIP in 4 lifetime starts vs. Washington. With Hanson on the mound tonight, we have no problem laying this heavy juice. Atlanta puts an end to their dreadful road skid Wednesday. Take the Braves on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on Arizona Diamondbacks -103
Reasons the Diamondbacks win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Any team (HOUSTON) - with a team on base percentage .310 or worse on the season (NL), after scoring 2 runs or less 4 straight games. This is a 51-17 ML System hitting 75% since 1997. Houston is the worst offensive team in the league at 2.8 RPG, and as a result their record is 8-18. Arizona is hitting the ball with authority this year, batting .273 as a team and scoring 5.7 RPG.
2.) Houston has lost 8 straight games. They have scored 2 runs or less in 7 of those contests. It's hard for a team to win when they cannot score runs, obviously. The starting pitching match-up tonight is pretty much even, so we'll side with the team that can actually put runs on the board consistently. Bet Arizona on the road.
Roz Juarbe
Cardinals at Phillies
A pair of talented offenses meet in Philly, a great hitter’s park. The difference between the teams tonight is on the mound. Kyle Kendrick goes for the home team with a 7.61 ERA, a hurler with average stuff, at best. St. Louis goes with Brad Penny, who looks fully recovered from arm problems the last few years, throwing well with a 3-1 record and a 1.56 ERA. He’s 9-4 all time against the Phillies, too. Play the Cardinals.
O.C. Dooley
Phillies +110
Earlier this week Philadelphia announced that Kyle Kendrick (7.61 ERA) despite his troubles would remain in the starting rotation which speaks volumes. The last three times Kendrick has faced the Cardinals he has posted an undefeated record (3-0) together with an ERA (2.25) in the excellent range. The "big three" hitters from the St. Louis lineup (Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Ryan Ludwick) are a combined "3-for-22" when facing Kyle Kendrick who I feel will bounce back in a big way this evening in front of the ESPN cameras. I am fully aware that the St. Louis rotation has ripped off 13 consecutive QUALITY starts, but "history" is not on their side. The last time St. Louis had 14 consecutive quality starts was way back in 1973 when a guy named Bob Gibson was anchoring the staff. The last time Brad Penny was on the mound for St. Louis he was a bit wild issuing FIVE walks. Those 5 free-passes have opened the door to a 72-PERCENT SYSTEM (33-13 past five years) which plays AGAINST road teams like St. Louis with a starting pitcher who averages 6'+ innings per assignment, and is coming off a start where he issued at least FIVE WALKS