Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, May 8

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

LA Angels at Houston
The Astros look to take advantage of an Angels team that is 0-5 in Joe Blanton's last 5 starts as a favorite. Houston is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120)

Game 951-952: Atlanta at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 16.187; Cincinnati (Leake) 14.990
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-110); Over

Game 953-954: St. Louis at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Westbrook) 16.577; Cubs (Villanueva) 15.294
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-115); Under

Game 955-956: Miami at San Diego (3:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Nolasco) 15.311; San Diego (Marquis) 15.051
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+130); Over

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at San Francisco (3:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Pettibone) 14.549; San Francisco (Zito) 15.539
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-155); Under

Game 959-960: Arizona at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 15.023; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.573
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-170); 6
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-170); Under

Game 961-962: Oakland at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Griffin) 16.119; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.282
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110); Over

Game 963-964: Kansas City at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Mendoza) 16.356; Baltimore (Tillman) 15.250
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+130); Over

Game 965-966: Minnesota at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hernandez) 15.360; Boston (Webster) 15.756
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 967-968: Toronto at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.210; Tampa Bay (Moore) 16.545
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-180); Under

Game 969-970: LA Angels at Houston (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Blanton) 12.444; Houston (Norris) 13.467
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120); Over

Game 971-972: Seattle at Pittsburgh (12:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 14.720; Pittsburgh (Burnett) 15.416
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-110); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-110); Under

Game 973-974: Detroit at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Sanchez) 17.202; Washington (Zimmermann) 16.087
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-105); Over

Game 975-976: Chicago White Sox at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Peavy) 14.427; NY Mets (Hefner) 14.977
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+100); Over

Game 977-978: Texas at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 14.445; Milwaukee (Lohse) 14.910
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-110); Under

Game 979-980: NY Yankees at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Phelps) 14.467; Colorado (Nicasio) 15.541
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-130); Under

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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White Sox/Mets Over 7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Jake Peavy may have a history of success against the Mets but there is also a history of going over the total in his 10 career games against them. In their three interleague games the White Sox have a .300 batting average and a .325 on base percentage. Those numbers coupled in with the Mets 4.9 runs per game make the over an easy value play in this game.
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Jeremy Hefner will get the start for the Mets and he brings with him an 0-3 record on the season. He is 3-2 to the over and has given up 7 home runs this season. His ERA is 4.34 but in his last three starts the Mets have lost all three games and Hefner received a losing decision in one of them. He may be in for a short outing today as I expect the White Sox bats to remain hot in interleague play.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers vs. Washington NationalsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Washington NationalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Tigers fit a negative system that has cashed 10 of times playing against certain road teams off a road favored win by 5 or more runs at 140 or higher, vs an opponent like the Nationals who return home off a road win. Washington has tore up American League teams scoring over 8 runs per game and hitting .352 During Inter league play. They are 4-1 in May and take on a Detroit team that has lost both times as a short road dog. Zimmerman makes the start for Washington and he has slightly better numbers this year that his Counter part Annibal Sanchez. The Nationals have the 3rd Best Home era in the league. Look for Washington to take the Opener.

Jesse SchuleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies +1.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Phillies have won back to back games in San Francisco, and they can complete the sweep with a win on Wednesday. Once again they find themselves as the underdog against the defending champion Giants, but they appear to have a good matchup on the mound today.
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The Giants send veteran Barry Zito to the hill, coming off back to back poor performances. Zito (3-1, 3.06 ERA) went five innings allowing a single on run on six hits in a 2-1 win over the Dodgers his last time out. While that doesn't sound too bad, it's the season high four walks and six hits that are reason for concern. He really struggled to throw strikes, using 95 pitches through five frames.
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Prior to that he was torched for six runs on six hits over 3 2/3 innings in an 8-7 loss at San Diego. He hasn't had any luck against the Phillies, going 0-2 with a 6.16 ERA in his last three starts against them. John Mayberry Jr. has really rocked Zito, going 4-for-6 lifetime, with three of those four hits being home runs. Chase Utley and Delmon Young have also feasted on the lefty, both hitting above .400 against him in their respective careers.
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The Phillies hand the ball to Jonathan Pettibone, who at age 22 is 2-0 as a starter so far in his career. He allowed one run on five hits over 6 1/3 innings in a 4-1 win over Miami his last time out. It's a relatively small sample size given he's only got three career starts under his belt, but the kid gives us plenty of reason to be optimistic, and he should do just fine at pitcher friendly AT&T Park.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oakland vs. ClevelandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 8½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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AJ Griffin (3-2, 3.79 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Griffin got back on track in his last outing vs. the Yanks on Friday, holding New York to just six hits over seven frames of work to go along with four K's and one walk (note that Griffin was 4-1 with a 2.90 ERA on the road last season). Griffin will be opposed by Justin Masterson (4-2, 3.64 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off eight hits with two walks over 6 2/3's innings of work vs. Minnesota on Friday, striking out five (note that Masterson finished with a very respectable 3.62 ERA in front of the home town crowd last year). After losing eight straight in this series, the Indians have taken the first two games of this four-game set including yesterday's contest 1-0: "When you pitch you have a chance to win the game,'' Indians' manager Terry Francona said last night. "We didn't do a whole lot offensively." Cleveland has won eight of its last nine by allowing an average of 2.3 runs and recording three shutouts in that span; Masterson has a big opportunity to get untracked tonight vs. this struggling Oakland team. After a quick start the A's have stumbled offensively of late; while they did take two of three from the Yanks over the weekend, they've plated 16 total runs while losing four of six since scoring 29 runs during a three-game win streak. I believe the table is set for a classic pitchers duel tonight and look for these two competent starters to battle each other into the latter frames and for this one to fall below the posted number in the end.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati RedsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Cincinnati RedsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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My main emphasis always starts with the pitching. But that certainly doesn't mean I'll ignore other factors that can be of tremendous importance in the overall analysis of any contest. Today's Braves-Reds hookup is a good example of that methodology.
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Atlanta lefty Mike Minor certainly rates the overall advantage over Mike Leake. But the edges on the overall get offset by the splits, as Minor is a guy with some serious differentials between his home starts and those on the road. Fcct is, Minor is not very good away from Atlanta, and I can see him having some trouble today. On the flip side, I'm not really bullish at all on Leake. He's mostly mediocre, but Leake has enjoyed some success against this opponent.
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If there's no real advantage either way on the starting pitchers, there are some substantial edges elsewhere for the Reds today. They should have the much fresher bullpen, especially at the end of the game if it's close. The Braves will probably have to bypass O'Flaherty, their primary setup guy, and I'm not sure that Kimbrel would be available either, based on his workload the last couple nights. The fact this is a day game lessens the likelhood either of those guys throws today. That's a very significant detail should the Braves head into the stretch trying to protect a slim lead.
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I'm also shading the Reds because of the way Tuesday's game finished. Atlanta jumped out to a 3-0 first inning lead following a rain delay that appeared to impact Homer Bailey. Atlanta did little after the initial explosion, but they were still just one strike away from a 4-3 win when lightning struck. Devin Mesoraco tied it with a stunning liner that got into the stands, and the amazing Shin-Soo Choo then blasted one into orbit for the win. That's an awesome win for the Reds and a major downer for the Braves. Coming back roughly 14 hours later off a swing like that should be a plus for the hosts. Add everything up and I think a good case gets made the Reds to score another win today.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros
Pick: Los Angeles Angels

A pair of struggling teams, but only one has offensive talent. The Angels are 11th in baseball in batting average and 13th in slugging. Starter Joe Blanton likes facing Houston with a 2-0 record and a 2.57 ERA against them. The Astros are 15-38 in their last 53 home games and 1-10 in Bud Norris' last 11 starts with 4 days of rest. Play the LA Angels.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay RaysSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Tampa Bay RaysFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It is becoming apparent that Tampa Bay's bullpen is a mess, with the staff depleted somewhat, partially from offseason moves that sent James Shields and Wade Davis to Kansas City. And Joe Maddon's bullpen imploded again last night at The Trop when allowing the Blue Jays to rally for a 6-4 win. The best elixir for those relief corps woes might be an effort deep into the game by a starting pitcher, and who better to count upon in that role than young lefty Matt Moore, already 5-0 and almost untouchable in the early going at St. Pete, where his ERA is 0.64 and OBA .089 entering tonight's game. that's a far cry from Toronto starter Ricky Romero, who recently returned to the rotation but unable to get beyond the 4th inning last Friday vs. the Mariners and taking the loss vs. Seattle. Romero has also won just once in his last fifteen decisions.

Sean MurphyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami vs. San DiegoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: MiamiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Marlins have dropped the first two games of this series - not a big surprise when you consider the Padres were priced at -190 and -175 in those two contests.
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I think we'll see a far more evenly-matched affair this afternoon, as Miami looks to avoid the sweep, and turns to its 'staff ace by default', Ricky Nolasco.
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Nolasco hasn't been anything special this season, but he certainly hasn't been awful either. He's worked at least six innings in five of his seven starts, and has given up more than three earned runs only twice. While he has been tagged for six home runs, he's managed to limit the damage by limiting the number of free passes handed out (only 10 walks in 41 1/3 innings). Note that Nolasco faced the Padres once last season, right here in San Diego, allowing only five hits and two earned runs over seven innings in a 6-3 Marlins victory.
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Jason Marquis will counter for the Padres. After pitching well in his first three starts this season, we've seen some considerable regression from Marquis over his last three outings. That's not to say he's given up a ton of runs, in fact, he's allowed only five earned runs in his last two starts, however his walk totals have been creeping up, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio now stands at a miserable 23:19 in 36 innings pitched this season. He hasn't been a great fit here at Petco Park, posting a 5.64 ERA in 22 1/3 innings of work.
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After getting outscored 10-1 in the first two games of this series, it's easy to forget that the Marlins had won back-to-back games heading in, outscoring the Phillies by a combined 16-2 score last Saturday and Sunday. They've actually played .500 ball over their last 10 games (5-5).
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The Padres are rolling along nicely right now, but they're far from invincible here at home, having gone just 9-8 on the season. Look for the Marlins to find a way to avoid the sweep on Wednesday afternoon.

Matt FargoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Texas Rangers vs. Milwaukee BrewersSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Texas RangersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We won with Milwaukee last night but admittedly, the Brewers were outplayed for eight innings after scoring five runs in the bottom of the first inning against Justin Grimm who eventually settled down. The Rangers fell to 9-9 on the road with the loss but I feel they are in a very good position to get back over .500 on the highway tonight. Derek Holland takes the mound for Texas and he has been very solid this season. He allowed six runs in 5.2 innings against the Angels which was not a surprise as he has struggled mightily against Los Angeles throughout his career. In his other five starts, he has tossed five quality outings and even with that one blowup, the has a 2.74 ERA and 0.94 WHIP on the season. He has never faced Milwaukee which puts him at an advantage against the Brewers bats. Milwaukee snapped a five-game losing streak with the loss last night and while the offense has been potent at home, the starting pitching has a 5.61 ERA at Miller Park this year. Kyle Lohse hasn't been horrible there but he does have a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in three home starts including his worst one last time out against his former team the Cardinals. While he has not faced the Rangers much of late, he has a 10.04 ERA in his last seven starts against them including a rough outing in the 2011 World Series. The Rangers are 69-27 in their last 96 games following a loss.

Steve MerrilFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle vs. PittsburghFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 6½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pirates and Mariners will be up bright and early on Wednesday afternoon as the two teams wrap up a short 2-game series. AJ Burnett is 3-2 with a 2.57 ERA this season leading the National League with 57 strikeouts. He has allowed just 7 runs and 18 hits in four home starts with three of those games going Under the total. Burnett faced Seattle twice back in 2011 giving up just 4 runs and eight hits in two starts while striking out 17 batters. Seattle has scored just 3 runs in their last two games and they haven’t put up double digit hits yet in any of their four games on their current road trip. They are hitting .223 in day games and not much better versus right-handed starters this season. The Pirates’ bullpen has an ERA under 3.00 on the season and they continue to be a strength.
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Felix Hernandez is 4-2 with a 1.60 ERA giving up just 1 earned run in his last three starts. The righty has struck out 51 while walking only seven with five of his seven starts going Under the total. Brandon Inge (4-22), Russell Martin (3-17) and Travis Snider (1-9) have seen Hernandez the most and have had the least success. Pittsburgh is hitting .248 in the daytime as a team, and they’ve scored just 13 total runs so far in their mini homestand. These two teams played a low-scoring game on Tuesday, and we expect that to happen again on Wednesday afternoon.

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3 UNIT PLAYSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Seattle/ Pittsburgh Under 6.5: King Felix is on fire as he comes in with an 0.41 ERA in his last 3 starts. At home Felix always has great numbers thanks to the park being a pitcher's park and PNC Park is also a hitters park, so he should do just fine in this one. Still overall Feix has a 1.69 ERA and his starts have averaged 5.14 rpg on the year, while he has a 1.29 ERA on the road, with those games averaging just 5.25 rpg. AJ Burnett comes in pitching well as he has a 2.57 ERA overall, including a 2.45 ERA at home. AJ's games have been low scoring as well this year as 5.43 rpg have been scored in his starts overall, while 6 rpg have been scored in his home starts. Burnett has always pitched well here as his ERA is 2.90 in this park and the Under is 6-1 in his last 7 home starts, plus we note that the Under is 12-3-1 in his last 16 starts as a dog. THis should be a good pitcher's duel with about 5 runs scored at most.
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St Louis -115 over CHICAGO: Lost with the Cards last night, but I will come right back with them today. Jake Westbrook has been pitching light's out this year, as he comes in with a 2-1 mark and a 1.07 ERA. He shouldn't have much problems to day with a sputtering Chicago offense that is 24th in scoring and 23rd in hitting. Jake is also 3-1 with a 3.09 ERA in his last 5 starts vs Chicago. Carlos Villanueva Has pitched well with a 2.85 ERA, but low run support has saddled him with a 1-2 mark on the year. He is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA in his last 3 starts and could have a problem keep a good St Louis offense down as he has a 5.02 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them. THe Cardinals scored just 1 run last night, but that won't happen 2 days in a row as this team is 8th in scoring and 11th in hitting. St Louis should bounce back today, behind yet another big outing from Jake.

CRAIG DAVIS

What should have happened in Game 1 is going to happen in Game 2 as the Miami Heat aren't going to treat the Bulls nicely in this revenge matchup.

The Heat were completely surprised by the Bulls hanging around till the 2-minute mark of the 4th quarter, and then the Bulls ended the game on a 10-0 run to win by seven.

I was shocked. The Heat and their fans were shocked. Shoot, the Bulls were probably shocked.

But it's not the first time the Bulls won in Miami and it won't be the last. Having said that, the Heat have averaged beating the Bulls by 14 points per game at home in their last seven wins.

With no Luol Deng and Kirk Hinrich, there's no way the Bulls can "luck" their way to another win.

Sure, Jimmy Butler and Nate Robinson were terrific in the first game, but that's NOT the norm and it won't be tonight.

They might each have a few points, but overall the Bulls are going to need a better game from Carlos Boozer if they want to compte, and I don't see that happening.

Take the Heat in a blowout as your free play of the day.

3* MIAMI

CHRIS JORDAN

I couldn't believe the number I saw while writing up Playoff capsules, for Game 1, and once again I am shocked by the number I am seeing in Game 2. Yes, the Spurs own an astounding 30-game win streak over the Warriors in San Antonio since 1997. But that won't scare me from taking the rather big number against the one team I think could be trouble for the other three Western Conference finalists, in any matchup.

Seriously, is there anyone else thinking Stephen Curry was the MVP of the first round? His 3-point prowess and rise to franchise-player status might have single-handedly willed the Warriors past an agile and physical Denver Nuggets team in six games. And how about his performance in Game 1, and how he was pretty damn close to sending shockwaves throughout the league with an outright win.

And if you know his relationship with coach Mark Jackson - who has played in some of the fiercest playoff series in modern-day history - you know that's been the key in keeping this team focused.

Golden State rolls into the semis on a 7-0 ATS run in the postseason, as it covered every game versus Denver, and then Game 1 in San Antonio, to improve to 17-5 overall dating back to the regular season. The Warriors have also covered 11 of 12 in Western Conference play and are on a perfect 6-0 road run. Meanwhile, the Spurs have failed to cover 8 of their last 11 at home and are mired in a 4-11 betting slide after a straight-up win.

I'm taking a shot here, especially since I still like the Warriors to win this series. No time like Game 2 to finish what you started in Game 1. Take the underdog.

2* GOLDEN STATE