Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday May, 9

Marc Lawrence

St Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks host the Cardinals in the finale of this three-game series when rookie surprise Wade Miley matches serves with Kyle Lohse in Arizona this evening. Miley takes the hill having cashed in 8 of his 10 MLB career team starts, including a perfect 4-0 at home. On the flip side Lohse, who has dropped 9 of his last 12 road team starts in May, is 0-4 in his last four team starts in this park. Make the Snakes a live home dog here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Arizona.

Rob Vinciletti

Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Boston Red Sox

The Redsox fit a nice system that plays on certain road favorites that lost as a road favorite by 2 or more runs and scored 4 or less runs on 5 or more hits with 5 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a home dog win by 2 or more runs and scored 5 or more runs with 4 or less men left on base. These road favorites have won 23 of the last 29 times. The Redsox are 4-1 on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5. KC is 3-13 at home including 0-7 when the total is 8 to 8.5. Boston send lefty John Lester to the mound and he has been solid this season so far with a 2.79 era. He is 5-1 vs KC with a 1.30 era. The Royals have journeyman lefty B. Chen on the mound and he has an 8.26 era his last 3 starts and a 2-7 record and a 6.65 era vs Boston. The Redsox have been solid vs leftys and are averaging over 7 runs against them. KC Struggles vs Left handers and is 0-5 this year. Look for Boston to bounce back here tonight.

Ben Burns

Nationals @ Pirates
PICK: Under 7

Yesterday's game finished above the total; the Pirates won 5-4. This evening's "all southpaw" affair looks like it could easily prove lower scoring.

Bedard has been excellent. He's got a 2.65 ERA through six starts, including a stellar 1.93 ERA in two starts here at home. He averaged seven innings in those two home starts and didn't give up a home run in either of them. In fact, he's only given up one home run in his 34 innings overall, striking out an impressive 37 during that span.

Not surprisingly, the "under" is 5-1 in Bedard's six starts overall, including 2-0 at home.

Note that Bedard has a 1.42 ERA in three starts vs. Washington. Each of those finished below the total, including a 2-1 game in the his lone 2011 start vs. the Nationals.

Detwiler has arguably been even better than Bedard. Through five starts, he's got an outstanding 1.59 ERA and 0.988 WHIP. His last three starts have finished with scores of 2-1, 2-3 and 2-0.

Neither team has hit well vs. left-handers. The Pirates are hitting .234 and averaging 3.3 runs per game in games against southpaw starters. The Nats are worse. They're averaging a mere 2.6 runs per game vs. southpaw starters, hitting a dismal .197 in those games. Each team has seen the "under" go 5-2 in games against left-handers.

Even including yesterday's result, the Nats have seen the "under" go 8-5 on the road while the Pirates have seen the "under" go 9-3-1 at home. Consider the Under.

Freddy Wills

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Cincinnati Reds

Johny Cueto has been on fire this year and has a 0.90 WHIP and 0.81 ERA over his last three starts. He'll make the day start and he and the Reds have been money during the day games this year and even going back to last year. Cueto over the last three years has a 2.73 ERA during day starts and a 2.22 ERA during his May starts. So May and Day are two positive things for Cueto. Now he has struggled vs. the Brewers and at Miller Park and that's why we are seeing him as an under dog today, but to me it's worth the risk considering the Brewers have really struggled.

The Brewers offense that gave Cueto struggles is not the same offense. For one they are ranked 22nd with a .685 OPS vs. RHP and they are 26th with a .615 OPS during day games where they are just 3-11 while the Reds are 9th with a .744 OPS during day games and also carry a 2.83 ERA and are 11-4. Zack Greinke goes for the Brewers and he's been dominant at times but just not as impressive as Cueto as he carries a 3.60 ERA over the last 3 years during day games. He also has a 3.12 ERA with a red flag of a WHIP at 1.67. Reds are 18-6 in their last 24 games with Cueto on the mound and 20-8 in their last 28 on 4 days rest.

Notable Hot Starters:
Paul Maholm (3-0, 0.82 WHIP, 1.47 ERA)
Brandon Morrow (3-0, 0.74 WHIP, 0.42 ERA)
Ross Detwiler (2-1, 0.93 WHIP, 1.96 ERA)
Cliff Lee (0-3, 0.70 WHIP, 1.96 ERA)
Wade Miley (3-0, 0.82 WHIP, 1.96 ERA)
Tim Lincecum (2-1, 1.22 WHIP, 2.00 ERA)
Jake Peavy (1-2, 0.70 WHIP, 1.40 ERA)
Wei-Yin Chen (3-0, 1.31 WHIP, 2.45 ERA)
Drew Smyly (2-1, 1.00 WHIP, 2.00 ERA)

Cold Starter Of The Day:
Chad Billingsley has got to have the best shot at winning as he pitches home against the Giants who he has good numbers against 181 AB .696 OPS. He does oppose Tim Lincecum, however the Giants are now hit hard by injuries and they don't have the same reliable bullpen to help them out so they almost have to play a perfect game to win.

Notable Cold Starters:
Dillon Gee (1-2, 1.70 WHIP, 5.49 ERA)
Josh Johnson (1-2, 1.70 WHIP, 7.36 ERA)
Lucas Harrell (1-2, 1.65 WHIP, 7.16 ERA)
Bruce Chen (0-3, 1.59 WHIP, 8.27 ERA)

Dave Cokin

Toronto Blue Jays vs Oakland Athletics
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays

Brandon Morrow has found his form in a big way for the Blue Jays. On the other hand, this could be the final shot for Tyson Ross as word is Brad Peacock will be plugged into his slot shortly. Look for the Blue Jays to roll here.

Jim Feist

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks

St. Louis is a long way from home and finishing up a 6-game road trip. And it's been a grueling grind, including a 3-game skid. They face an Arizona team that is home and hungry for some wins after a grueling 10-game trip of their own. The Diamondbacks are 20-8 in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Arizona starter Wade Miley is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA and the Cardinals have never faced him before. Play the Diamondbacks.

SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis/ARIZONA over 9½

30 games in and pitchers are beginning to establish some stability in their numbers. ERA’s are not fluctuating as much from start to start but there are still some corrections forthcoming. One of those corrections belongs to Wade Miley. The lefty is 3-0 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a BAA of .172. Miley is serviceable with a decent sinker but he’s not nearly as good as his current stats suggest. He was quite hittable in the spring with a 5.94 ERA and a .316 BAA. Expect his numbers to start heading south and the Cardinals are just the team to jumpstart them. St. Louis is first or second in every major offensive category in the NL. They’ve won three in a row, including the first two in this set, where they’ve scored 15 times. Kyle Lohse is another pitcher who has unsustainable numbers. His 2.11 ERA is the direct result of a 82.5% strand rate but this park is unforgiving to fly-ball pitchers like Lohse. Current D-Back hitters are batting .292 against Lohse and given his history of arm trouble and lack of other skills (strikeout rate, groundball rate), Lohse is not someone to count on to keep throwing gems. With elite ERA’s and WHIP’s, this total appears high and that’s exactly what the odds makers want you to think. Play: St. Louis/Arizona over 9½ +101Play: St. Louis/Arizona over 9½ +101 (Risking 2 units).

CLEVELAND -105 over Chicago

The White Sox could very well be the sucker play of the day. Jeanmar Gomez, a complete unknown, is favored over Jake Peavy, a well-established pitcher that is off to a tremendous start and you can be sure that the South Side will take plenty of money here. In 45.1 innings, Peavy has allowed 28 hits, has struck out 39, while issuing just six walks. He also has a 1.99 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP and a BAA of .177. Those are CY Young numbers and he’s certainly an early season candidate for that award. Why then, is he a pooch against Gomez and the Indians? If Cleveland and Gomez were facing Justin Verlander, Brandon Morrow, Jon Lester or a number of other established strong starters in the AL they would not be favored. Gomez has very good numbers this season but he’s had 25 career starts with a 4.37 career ERA and a career BAA against of .292. Something smells awfully fishy about this one and that has us fading the popular choice. Play: Cleveland -105 (Risking 2.1 units).

San Francisco +113 over LOS ANGELES

Tim Lincecum has a 5.68 ERA. His road ERA is 8.53 and that’s why we’ll gladly step in on this still brilliant pitcher. Lincecum has had nothing but pure bad luck. His strand rate of 61% is among the lowest in the majors and it is sure to take a significant rise. Lincecum’s base skills are still teriffic with a 49%/28% groundball/fly-ball ratio and a high strikeout rate of 33 k’s in 32 innings. Lincecum has issued more walks than is characteristic of him so expect that to correct too. Chad Billingsley is a compete wild card from game to game. He can be strong one start and dreadful the next but here’s what we do know. Billingsley is the inferior pitcher here. His skills are just about the average mark and he’s basically a .500 pitcher with very little chance of improving. He’s had an easy schedule this season facing San Diego, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Houston, Washington and the Cubs and his 3.18 ERA is a result of that easy slate. In the end, what we have here is true value on one of the game’s best and there’s no way we’re passing it up. Play: San Francisco +113 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Series: Washington +339 over N.Y. Rangers

The Capitals are -106 in tonight’s game but instead of playing them here and laying a bit of juice, we’ll take them in the series in the hopes of them forcing a game seven. At that point, we’ll have Washington at +339 in a one game showdown in which anything can happen. This series has been extremely close with each game being in question right down to the final minutes. The last four games have been decided by a goal with two of them going into OT. The Rangers are an offensively challenged club, Braden Holtby has been outstanding and if not for a goal with six seconds left in game five, the Rangers would be in big trouble. They’re still not out of the woods and the offering here remains one of value with a decent chance of paying off. Play: Washington +339 to win series (Risking 1 unit).

Tony George

Clippers +6

Memphis faces elimination tonight down 1-3 in the series and yet lay a big number here in what has been an epic battle of 2 teams evenly matched. Looks to good to be true, a home team who clearly needs the win to stay alive who should be motivated enough to pull away, but the Clippers are the better team and getting this many points in a playoff game with the other side of the coin here exposed, you win and you advance, so I feel LA equally motivated to get it done. The 4 games in this series have been decided by a total of 13 points and Memphis laying 6 in this one? The VALUE is in the line, grab the points.

Jimmy Boyd

Arizona Diamondbacks +105

Arizona, which has lost the first two games of this series, is a rock solid 6-2 in its last 8 games following losses in the first two games of a series. I like its chances tonight with Miley on the hill. The southpaw is 2-0 (3-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.96 on the season. He is 4-0 on the ML in his L4 and 8-1 on the ML in his L9 starts. I expect Miley to be effective versus a St. Louis lineup that isn't familiar with his stuff. Lohse is off to a strong start for the Red Birds but has struggled against the Snakes. He's just 2-2 (3-5 on the ML) with an ERA of 5.36 in eight career starts versus Arizona. The Cards have lost his last two starts versus the D-backs, during which he has given up 14 earned runs in just 9 2-3 innings. We'll take Arizona showing value in the underdog role.

Jack Jones

Los Angeles Angels -127

I'm backing the Los Angeles Angels as a small road favorite in Game 3 of this series with the Minnesota Twins. After getting shut out 5-0 last night by Minnesota, the Angels will be hungry to get their bats going tonight against the washed up Carl Pavano.

While Ervin Santana is winless on the season, he is still one of the most underrated starters in the game. The righty posted a 3.38 ERA and 1.220 WHIP in 33 starts in 2011. He's off to a slow start this year, but he's clearly coming around. Santana has allowed 5 earned runs and 15 base runners over 15 innings while striking out 13 batters in his last two starts.

Carl Pavano faced the Angels once this season, giving up 5 earned runs over 6 2/3 innings back on April 11th. In his last start against Minnesota, Santana pitched a complete game while allowing just 1 earned run over 9 innings in a 5-1 victory on August 2nd of 2011. I believe the Angels have the better starter and the better line-up in this one.

The Angels are 41-21 against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. The Twins are 14-37 in their last 51 home games. Minnesota is 13-41 in their last 54 games overall dating back to last season. The Twins are 4-22 in their last 26 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Angels Wednesday.

Steve Janus

St Louis Cardinals -110

The St Louis Cardinals are showing some great value against the Arizona Diamondbacks. St Louis is absolutely crushing the baseball. They have scored 23 runs over their last three games combined. They opened up this series with a 9-6 win and came back and dominated 6-1 last night.

I like the Cardinals chances of putting up another big number on Arizona lefty Wade Miley. The Cardinals are 5-1 against left-handed starters this season and are averaging 7.3 runs in those six games.

Miley comes in a respectable 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three starts, but is coming off his worst performance of the season. He allowed 4 runs on seven hits in just six innings of work against the Mets in his last start.

You also have to like the value you are getting with St Louis starter Kyle Lohse, who has looked sharp early in the season. Lohse is 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.939 WHIP in six starts. He faces an Arizona offense that that has scored just 11 runs over their last four games, and six of those runs came in one inning of a game in which the Diamondbacks were down 7-0.

St Louis is 36-16 in their last 52 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game, 6-0 in Lohses last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game, and 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.

Matt Fargo

San Diego Padres -114

Matt is coming off a split on the diamond last night but he nailed his Supreme Annihilator on Milwaukee and carries that into Wednesday! Going back to last season Matt is on an AWESOME 68-49-1 short-term MLB run and extends it tonight with a HUGE OBLITERATION! His Annihilator was easy last night and it will be EVEN EASIER tonight! All of the info is just a click away!

The Padres have won the first two games of this series and they will be going for the sweep before heading out on the road for a five-game trip. The two wins over the Rockies snapped a three-game losing streak and San Diego will be out to hit double-digit wins at home with a victory today. The offense continues to struggle but the pitching has been very solid as San Diego has a 3.37 ERA on the season including 2.94 at home which is the eighth best home ERA in the league.

Colorado has really been struggling as it has lost five straight games as the bats have gone silent of late. The Rockies managed 17 runs in two games against the Braves but the pitching got rocked and since then they have scored only five runs over the last three games. The offense has really struggled on the road as Colorado is hitting only .213 which is tied for the third lowest average in baseball. Even worse is the fact it has scored only 32 runs in 11 games for an average of just 2.9 rpg.

Christian Friedrich will be making his Major League debut on Wednesday which is coming a lot later than expected. He was a first round draft pick in 2008 but he has not lived up to the billing so far. He went 3-6 with a 5.05 ERA in 18 starts in Tulsa in 2010 and 6-10 with a 5.00 ERA in 25 outings in 2011. He has been decent at the AAA level this year, going 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in five starts but this is a totally different ballgame. He has a bullpen behind him that has a 4.33 ERA on top of it.

The Padres counter with Anthony Bass who is pitching very well despite not getting the wins. He is just 1-3 but he has posted a 3.51 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in five starts despite coming off his worst outing of the season. He had allowed three runs or fewer in each of his first four starts but was hit hard against Miami, allowing six runs on six hits in six innings. He has faced the Rockies once already this season and three times in his career and has allowed only four total runs covering 15 innings.

CHUCK O'BRIEN

My complimentary pick run is now at 35-21-1 after last night's outright winner on the Denver Nuggets in Los Angeles, over the Lakers, to stay alive in their Western Conference quarterfinal clash. Tonight I'm staying in Los Angeles for my freebie, but will shift to East L.A., for the National League West showdown between classic rivals San Francisco and the Dodgers.

I'm playing the home team here, and I want you listing Los Angeles' Chad Billingsley over Giants ace Tim Lincecum. Both pitchers are 2-2 on the young season, while the Dodgers' right-hander has a much better ERA (3.69) than Lincecum (5.68).

I'm not sure what's gotten into Lincecum, either, as he doesn't look anything like a two-time National League Cy Young Award winner with that awfully high ERA. I know the season is young, and the fiery right-hander is capable of running off 10, 11, 12 stifling performances, but right now I'm not so sure. I will give him this, over his last three starts, he's allowed just four earned runs over 18 innings of work. A closer look reveals those trips to the hill were against the New York Mets, San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers.

In other words, a third-place team (Mets), a last-place team (Padres) and a second-to-last place team (Brewers). Today he not only faces one of the top two teams in the National League, but his team's arch-rival dating back to the late 19th century when both clubs were based in New York City.

In his first three starts of the season, he allowed 16 earned runs over 13-2/3 innings of work, resulting in a season-beginning ERA of 10.53 to go along with a 0-2 mark after losses to Arizona and Philadelphia.

The Dodgers are 19-11, tied with the defending World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals for the best record on the senior circuit. And even more impressive is an 11-3 home record the men in blue bring into this game. And one of those three losses came last night, as the Giants won the middle game of this three-game set, 2-1.

That should be plenty motivation for the Dodgers, not to mention Billingsley, who is 7-5 lifetime against the Giants, with a 3.24 ERA to go along with that record. This will only be the righty's third home start of the season, as he's 1-0 at Chavez Ravine, with a win over the Pittsburgh Pirates and a no-decision against the Washington Nationals. In those two starts, he's allowed just two earned runs over 13 innings of work (1.38 ERA), while scattering 10 hits, striking out 10 and walking just two.

Take the Dodgers tonight, lay the cheap price and list both pitchers.

4♦ L.A. DODGERS