JEFF BENTON
Your Wednesday freebie is the Texas Rangers to win another as their four game series at Camden Yards continues against the Baltimore Orioles.
Last night it was the Josh Hamilton show, as the lefty exploded for four homers and a double as the Baltimore pitching staff crumbled once again.
The Rangers have now won the last seven series meetings against the O's, and in five of the seven Texas has come up with ten runs or better! That is domination, and I don't see it changing tonight against Wei-Yin Chen. Chen has been solid for Buck Showalter's club, going 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA in his five starts this year, but the Texas lineup has a few bats that can bloat a pitcher's ERA in a hurry.
Colby Lewis is off to a 3-1 start with an under three ERA, and with the kind of offensive support the Rangers are capable of giving him, there is little doubt that he can improve that mark to 4-1 with the win tonight.
Texas owns the best record in the majors, so lay it tonight with the road favorite as the Rangers make it a 3-0 mark versus the O's this year, and eight in a row overall versus Baltimore.
4♦ TEXAS
MATT RIVERS
Your free play for Wednesday is the Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals to combine for another over at Kauffman Stadium.
The first two games played this week between the clubs have both produced high-scoring overs, as Boston is now 19-9-1 over the total in the 29 games they have played this season.
The Sox enter having played five straight overs, while the Royals have played over the total in their last three, and six of their last ten overall.
The pitching matchup tonight shows Jon Lester and Bruce Chen, a couple of southpaws that have not been getting the job done this season.
Lester is 1-2 with a 4.62 ERA for the season, while Chen is 0-4 with an ERA of 4.98. Chen's ERA over his last three starts is over eight, so don't be surprised if the bullpens are called into action early again tonight.
Make it a clean sweep on the over tonight between the Red Sox and the Royals!
5♦ OVER
CHRIS JORDAN
I've always had a knack for winning totals, ever since my 900-number 'the Over/Under Hotline' led the industry in the 1990s with sports totals. And I see this game soaring over the posted number, as the Clippers are going to force an up-tempo game tonight, with hopes of taking the Memphis crowd out of the game and seizing control of the game early on.
Three of the four meetings in this series have gone Over, with the average final landing on 192.75 points. They've ranged between 173 points and 203 points, with that high number coming in the last game played in Memphis.
Knowing the top-seeded San Antonio Spurs are resting and waiting for the winner of this series, I know the Clippers will be pushing to end this series tonight, and the only way they can do that is to score points. Memphis' only way to stay alive is not to stop the Clippers, but to outrun, outgun and ultimately outscore them.
The Clippers roll into town on Over runs of 6-0 when installed as the underdog, 4-0 on the road, 5-1 when playing on one day's rest and 6-1 overall. With Memphis, the high number is on winning streaks of 6-1 in the Western Conference first round, 5-1 when hosting teams with a losing road record, 4-1 against the Pacific Division and 6-2 at home - all as the installed chalk.
This one will far surpass the 183-mark, getting into the 190s near the end of the game. Play the Over tonight in this playoff game.
2♦ CLIPPERS/GRIZZLIES OVER
Charlies Sports
Minnesota Twins +125
The (13-18) Los Angeles Angels of the MLB American League West division will take on the (8-21) Minnesota Twins also of the american League Central division in 2012 MLB action. The Angels will send Right handed Ervin Santana, who is (0-6) with a 5.59 era this season to the pitchers mound vs. Right Handed Carl Pavano (2-2) with a 4.62 era. The Angels have won the last 4 of the last 5 between the teams. Twins gets the home win+125.
Dave Price
Miami Marlins -148
After 7 straight wins the Marlins finally dropped a game last night. I expect them to waste no time finding the win column again with ace Josh Johnson on the hill. He hasn't pitched to his ability yet but is certainly the starter in this matchup that is more capable of delivering a gem. The Marlins have won 7 of their last 9 versus the Astros and are 9-3 in Johnson's last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Astros are just 1-4 in Harrell's last 5 starts as an underdog. Take Miami.
John Ryan
Chicago Cubs +105
10* graded play on the Chicago Cubs as they host the Atlanta Braves set to start in a matinee at 2:20 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that the Cubs will earn this win. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 168-139 making 64.4 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play on any NL team with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season and with a team batting average of .245 or worse on the season. This system has averaged a dog play of +121 which matches the current line for this game and adds a touch more strength and validity to this play. Moreover, the Cubs are a solid 21-12 making 11.1 units per one unit wagered using the money line in home games after batting .250 or worse over a 20 game span encompassing the last two seasons. Maholm has dominated opponents in his starts and has allowed one earned run exact in each of his last three starts. He is not a power pitcher, but has strong command and movement on his pitches, which keeps batters off balance and mostly guessing. In six career starts against the Braves he has posted a solid 1.58 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Take the Cubs.
Rocketman
San Francisco @ LA Dodgers
Play: LA Dodgers -121
San Francisco meets up with the Dodgers in Los Angeles here tonight in Game 3 of this 3 game series. These teams have split out in the first two games. LA Dodgers are 10-2 this year at home when the total is 7 or less. San Francisco is scoring only 2.9 runs per game their past 7 games overall. LA Dodgers are allowing only 2.5 runs per game at home this year where they have a solid 11-3 record this season. Tim Lincecum is 2-2 with a 5.69 ERA overall this year and 1-1 with an 8.53 ERA on the road this season. Chad Billingsley is 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA at home this season. LA Dodgers are 22-4 last 26 games as a home favorite. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Dodgers tonight!
Jeff Alexander
LA Dodgers -122
The Dodgers are 11-3 at home on the season and 25-8 in their last 33 home games. They are are 22-4 in their last 26 games as a home favorite and 7-0 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. The time to fade Lincecum has been on the road as the Giants are only 1-5 in his last 6 road starts. They are also 1-4 in his last 5 starts vs. the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 5-1 in Billingsley's last 6 starts as a home favorite and 7-2 in his last 9 home starts vs. the Giants. Take LA at a nice price.
John Ryan
New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
5* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on the Mets set to start at 7:05 PM ET. Yes, I am getting concerned for Philly fans as their team continues to sputter and just can?t the complete game together on any given night. They are missing two perennial starts in second baseman Chase Utley and first baseman Ryan Howard, but their return is not going to fix other problem areas.
The bullpen was supposed to be a superior strength, but has been nothing short of the biggest failure this season. They have posted a 2-7 record with a 4.95 ERA with a 1.541 WHIP and have blown five of 14 save opportunities on the season. All nine saves, though, have been earned by closer Jonathan Papelbon and he has not blown a save yet this season. He was roughed up in his appearance Tuesday giving up a three-run home run in a 2-2 tied game. The setup hurlers are the issue right now for the Phillies.
Although, as a group, they have not been lights out, they are still one of the best and most feared in baseball. The lack of consistent run support is a big problem and manager Charlie Manuel has attempted to blend his team to find the most effective lineup to produce runs. Rookie second baseman, Galvis, is an elite defensive player, but is bat is barely AA quality. Manuel is at the point in the season, where he cannot ride Galvis, as hoped, until Utley returns and has platooned Galvis to try and minimize his poor hitting. Galvis ranks seventh worst in MLB in OPS among all players with 80 at-bats or more.
It could have been much better for the Phillies and at the same time it could have been far worse if there were additional injuries or the long-term loss of one of their aces. Bottom line is that they are the best team in the National League and once the starters all return, and after an adjustment that occurs with their return, they will resume their NL dominance.
Lee is on the nul and the left-handed ace makes his first start in three weeks after going on the DL with a precautionary rest and recovery period. That is the luxury the Phillies enjoy. That they can rest and prevent player injuries given the depth of the starting rotation.
Lee is off to a mighty fine start posting a 1.96 ERA and a 0.696 WHIP in three starts spanning 23 innings of work. He has allowed just 14 hits, two walks, and record 23 strikeouts. This would have been a possible 20 star play had it not been for him coming off the DL.
He has allowed a paltry .235 batting average to the current members of the Mets in their respective careers. Lee has posted a 2-1 record in four starts with a 1.61 ERA and a 0.964 WHIP against the Mets in his career.
Gee has two years of MLB experience and has posted a somewhat steady 4.50 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP, but has allowed opponents to his .280 against him in five starts this season. Moreover, pitching against Philadelphia has not been one of his favorite tasks posting a 6.48 ERA and a 1.86 WHIP in three career starts. he has become predictive with his pitching sequences based on published reports I have reviewed. Pitching in the lower third and pitching low and away is common place in the majors. However, you can overdo that and then batters set up for those pitch sequences knowing that if anything is thrown inside there is a 90% probability he will throw low and away on the next pitch.
Twenty percent of all pitches thrown to right-handed batters are in the low-and-away quadrant of the strike zone. I strongly believe, that the Phillies lineup will look to bat opposite field tonight as that is the sure way to get an offensive attack against a pitcher like Gee. Even Hunter Pence, who is a dominant middle-in pull type of slugger will be looking to ?go with the pitch?.
MLB Predictions
Texas Rangers -121
The Texas Rangers will look to lock up this 4 game series against the Orioles by winning tonight’s game. This one follows a historic night where Josh Hamilton went 5 for 5 including 4 home runs for 18 total bases – an unbelievable performance. Texas is now 20-10 on the season, and 12-5 away from home. The Orioles are still an impressive 19-11 on the season and 8-6 at home. Texas has won 7 straight meetings between these two clubs and are looking for #8 tonight behind Colby Lewis. Lewis is 3-1 on the season with a 2.97 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and .267 opponents batting average. Lewis started the season with 5 straight quality starts before being roughed up a little in his last start at Cleveland (10 hits and 6 earned runs over 6.2 innings). Take away that last starts and Lewis has been stellar. Rookie southpaw Wei-Yin Chen takes the mound for the Orioles tonight. He is 2-0 with a 2.76 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, and .250 opponents batting average. Take note that the Rangers are hitting .308 against lefties with a .364 OBP. In comparison the Orioles are hitting .243 against righties with a .303 OBP. I look for Colby Lewis to return to his form and out pitch Chen who is facing a Texas team who has scored 24 runs in the past two nights and are averaging 5.67 runs per game. Take the Rangers.
Houston Astros +141
Both teams are looking for their third straight series victory tonight in the rubber match game. Miami won the first game 4-0 and the Astros took last night’s game 3-2 as big +155 underdogs. Tonight we will see Josh Johnson on the mound for Miami, who is having a lot of struggles returning to form after his injury last season. JJ is 0-3 on the year with a 6.61 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, and .359 opponents batting average. In his latest start he lasted just 2.2 innings allowing 6 hits and 6 earned runs against a Padres team who doesn’t hit well. Going up against Johnson tonight is Lucas Harrel who is 2-2 on the season with a 4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and .269 opponents batting average. Harrell has been a bit of a roller coaster ride this year with a few good starts and a few not so good starts. Take note that the Astros are scoring almost a full run more per game than the Marlins at 4.50 compared to 3.53. The Marlins are also scoring just 3.16 runs per game on the road. Houston is hitting .259 against righties while the Marlins are hitting just .235 against righties. Take note that Miami is just 4-9 in Johnson’s last 13 road starts. The Astros are 6-2 in their last 8 games overall and 7-2 in their last 9 home games. Johnson is still being overvalued, and I think the Astros have a good shot at winning tonight. Make a play on the Astros at a generous underdog price.
WUNDERDOG
Atlanta at Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs +110
The Chicago Cubs had a dreadful start to their season getting out of the gate at just 3-11 through their first 14 games. They have certainly done a much better job since as they are above .500 over their last 17 games. The Braves bullpen is shot as they have allowed 55 runs in their last nine games at over six per contest which means the pen is overworked. Paul Maholm was part of the Cubs struggles early on but he has pitched three straight gems, allowing just one run in each of them and has found the groove. Tim Hudson did not make his debut until the close of April and the early returns are not good as he has posted a 6.55 ERA and his last 11 road starts vs. a team with a losing record show a painful 3-8 mark. Play on Chicago.
Black Widow
Miami Marlins -141
The Miami Marlins send Ace Josh Johnson to the mound Wednesday looking to start a new winning streak. Miami had won seven straight before a loss to the Houston Astros last night, but I have no doubt they'll get back in the win column behind Johnson tonight. While Johnson hasn't been sharp in the early going, he remains one of the best starters in the game. I look for him to get on track against one of the worst line-ups in baseball tonight. Lucas Harrell has really been struggling for Houston, going 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.653 WHIP over his last three starts. The Marlins are 7-1 in their last 8 road games. Miami is 36-16 in Johnson's last 52 starts with 4 days of rest. The Marlins are 5-1 in Johnson's last 6 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Astros are 39-82 in their last 121 games vs. a right-handed starter. Take the Marlins on the Money Line.
Teddy Covers
Rangers @ Orioles
PICK: Under 9
Teddy is red hot right now, hitting 72% across sports over the past week. His baseball streak is starting to approach his legendary 2010 summer run: 5-0, 12-2 and 20-5 with his last 25. He's hitting 63% in NBA Playoff action this month! Go for the 3-0 Wednesday sweep riding Teddy's hot picks!
Bettors spent all kinds of time breaking down starting pitching matchups. We spend hours looking at how opposing lineups match up against these starters. But when it comes to valuing bullpens correctly, bettors tend to come up short. That gives us a prime opportunity to step in with an ‘Under’ bet this evening as the Rangers and Orioles battle in Baltimore.
Both starters here are absolutely trustworthy. Baltimore’s Wei-Yin Chen has lived up to all expectations, holding opposing batters to a combined total of nine earned runs in his first five major league starts. He’s already faced some truly potent lineups (the Yankees and Red Sox, for example), coming away with solid performances. He’s got a 2.13 ERA at Camden Yards; a ‘bet-on’ hurler right now.
The Rangers Colby Lewis has been every bit as good as Chen, holding foes to a combined total of seven earned runs in his first five starts before a rough outing last time out at Cleveland. Like Chen, Lewis has enjoyed success even against top notch lineups, shutting down the Tigers and Red Sox on the road, throwing seven full innings each time.
But the real key here is the two bullpens behind the starters. Baltimore and Texas rank #1-2 in the majors in bullpen ERA this season, allowing a combined 40 earned runs in 181 innings of work – these relievers slam the door shut in the latter stages of nearly every ballgame they’re in. Don’t expect another four home run night from Josh Hamilton this evening, in what should be a relatively low scoring ballgame. Take the Under.
Sean Murphy
Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
We have a nice spot to fade the Giants coming off a win over the Dodgers last night.
San Francisco won that game, but its offensive woes continued, as the Giants scored only two runs, both coming in the second inning. They've now plated a grand total of 21 runs over their last eight games, and are averaging just 3.75 runs per nine innings this season.
You can add Angel Pagan to the list of ailing Giants hitters after he suffered a hamstring injury last night. Remember, they also lost arguably their best hitter, Pablo Sandoval, to a broken hand last week.
The Dodgers have been scuffing their heels a little lately, but remain 19-11 on the season, and an exceptional 11-3 here at home. You can count their losing streaks on one hand, as they've dropped consecutive games only three times, and only once here at home.
Rarely have we been able to say that the Dodgers have the pitching edge with Chad Billingsley going against Tim Lincecum, but that is the case tonight.
Lincecum has really struggled here in 2012, going 2-2 with a 5.68 ERA. That ERA stretches north of eight on the road. He's having serious problems with his command, having issued 13 walks compared to only 17 strikeouts over his last three outings, and faces a Dodgers club that went 4-1 against him last season.
Billingsley labored through his most recent outing, an eventual 5-4 loss to the Cubs in Chicago. However, he's back in his element tonight, pitching under the lights in the tomb that is Dodger Stadium. The veteran right-hander has been outstanding at Chavez Ravine this season, posting a 1.38 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in two starts, both resulting in Dodger victories. L.A. is 3-1 in his last four home outings against the rival Giants.
Despite a sore hamstring, Matt Kemp has remained in the Dodgers lineup, and has continued to produce in this series, going 4-for-7 with two walks in the first two games. He's expected to be in the lineup again tonight, further strengthening our case for the boys in blue.