Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 23

VEGAS EXPERTS

Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres

The defending Stanley Cup champs have gotten hot in the month of November with nine straight victories, including back to back shutouts posted over the Islanders and Montreal. Buffalo has been off since Saturday, having alternated wins and losses over their last six games, including a 4-2 home loss to Phoenix last time out. That does not set the Sabres up well here considering their poor 1-9 SU mark at home off a non-conference game. Included in both teams' recent streaks is a 6-2 Bruins win over Buffalo in Boston. Look for these teams to continue to head in opposite directions.

Play on: Boston

David Chan

Canucks @ Avalanche
PICK: Under 5.5
Offered at: 5.5 Pinnacle

The 10-9-1 Vancouver Canucks crash into Colorado to take on the 9-11-1 Avalanche.

Cory Schneider is set to square off against Semyon Varlamov between the pipes.

Vancouver continues its unpredictable start to the year; it's once again one of the top scoring teams in the league, but its tallied just three goals over its last two games, in which its gone 1 and 1.

Schneider made some big saves in the Canucks 2-1 win over the Sens on Sunday (note that as of writing this, there is a small chance that Roberto Luongo could return to play in this game; and note that Luongo is 6-0-2 with a 2.58 GAA in his last eight starts vs. Colorado).

The Avs have been poor at home this year, scoring just 18-goals while posting a 3-7-0 record in front of the home town crowd; they are coming off a 4-1 setback to San Jose on Sunday:

“We played a decent game, had all kinds of shots, we’re just not scoring goals,” captain Milan Hejduk said.

I think you'll agree with me, that when you take the factors I listed above into consideration, that all signs point to a low-scoring affair!

Jim Feist

Virginia Tech vs Syracuse
Pick: Syracuse

Syracuse returns most of its core from last year’s team, and is sitting at No. 5 in the nation. They’re also expected to win a share of the Big East, according to the preseason coach’s poll. This team is loaded with depth and talent, both inside and out. They take on a Virginia Tech Hokies squad that is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games and 1-6 ATS against a team with a winning record. Meanwhile the Orange is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Play Syracuse!

SPORTS WAGERS

Winnipeg +180 over WASHINGTON

Get used to seeing the Capitals in this space because as long as they’re overpriced, we’ll keep fading them. Washington is coming off a 4-3 win over the Coyotes in a game they trailed 2-0 by allowing two shorthanded goals. A fluke goal to tie it and a 5 on 3 power-play contributed to that win against a Phoenix team playing its fifth road game in a row and that looked exhausted out there. Prior to that the Caps had one win in eight games and that’s the Capital team we expect to see a lot more of. The Caps second, third and fourth lines might be the weakest in the NHL and the first line isn’t playing too good either. Defensively, this team is better than nobody. The Caps 11-7-1 record combined with its past history has them grossly overvalued. This is a non-playoff team this season and they’ll remain an extremely profitable fade. The Jets are coming on with three wins in a row over Tampa, these same Caps and Philadelphia. They scored 15 goals over that stretch and although all three games were at home, they’re feeling a whole lot better with a whole lot more confidence and momentum. Regardless of the outcome, the Jets offer up some tremendous value here in a game in which they have every bit as good a chance of winning. Play: Winnipeg +180 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Rangers +101 over FLORIDA

It’s hard not to root for a Panther team that plays their hearts out every game and that nobody gave much of a chance to before the season started. They’re a tough out every time they take the ice, they’re third in the East behind Pittsburgh and Toronto with games in hand and they’re leading the Southeast division. However, this one is all about playing against the situation. Florida is coming off a 4-3 win over New Jersey and their former coach, Peter DeBoer. The players openly talked about how they did not like playing for DeBoer. They said that when you played for him you were petrified of making a mistake because he didn’t let it go. They wanted that game more than any this year and rallied from a 3-0 deficit to get it. When the final buzzer went off it was a celebration like none other this year. Don’t be surprised to see the Panthers come out a little flat, as it’s doubtful they’ll maintain or bring that intensity to the start of this one. The Rangers are coming off a 4-0 loss on Saturday in Montreal and have been off since. They were flat and badly outplayed in that game and after a performance like that teams like to get right back into action. Expect a completely different Rangers team here. The Blue Shirts had won seven in a row prior to that and outscored their opponents 27-11 over that span but this one is all about playing against the Panthers after a hugely emotional win. Play: N.Y. Rangers +101 (Risking 2 units).

SEAN MURPHY

Austin Peay @ Detroit
PICK: Detroit -5

Detroit has been a major disappointment in this tournament, suffering a blowout loss against George Washington in its opener before falling by six points against Bowling Green yesterday.

The good news is, the Titans will take a significant step down in class today as they face Austin Peay. The Governors are 0-5 SU and 1-3 ATS so far this season, and I question how much they'll have in the tank after a hard-fought 54-52 loss against George Washington yesterday.

Keep in mind, both teams are playing for the third time in three days, but Austin Peay is actually playing its fourth game in the last five days. With that in mind, depth becomes an issue, and in that department, I'll certainly side with Detroit.

The Titans should have a decided edge on the glass in this one, and it's also worth noting that they're the vastly superior free throw shooting team (76.9% compared to 59%).

We're getting a fairly short line to work with thanks to Detroit's struggles so far in this tournament, but I look for the Titans to take out their frustrations on an overmatched Governors squad on Wednesday.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Denver +7

The first road game of the season is rarely easy. The Gaels likely won't have it easy in their road opener in Denver, where the Pioneers are 32-20 ATS under coach Joe Scott. As I just noted, Denver has typically been good on its home floor, and it won't be lacking any motivation after getting whacked by 30 at Saint Mary's last season. The Gaels return 4 starters but lost their most important piece - Mickey McConnell, who led the team in scoring and assists and took every big shot in critical moments. Denver returns 4 starters, who also happen to be their top 4 returning scorers. Top returning scorer, Brian Stafford, is really cooking early with a 20.0 ppg average. The Pioneers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog. The Gaels are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.Because Saint Mary's has received some national attention in recent years, and because of last year's convincing win over Denver, odds makers have overvalued the Gaels in order to trap the public. We won't bite. We'll take the home team in this revenge spot.

Jack Jones

Michigan -5½

The Michigan Wolverines should have no problem making easy work of UCLA tonight. The Bruins are working with one of their worst teams in school history, while the Wolverines are clearly a team on the rise this season.

UCLA is off to a 1-3 start this year. They lost at home to Loyola-Marymount 58-69 and again at home to Middle Tennessee State 66-86. Those two results alone show that this squad is in rebuilding mode. The Bruins' lone win came against Chaminade, and they lost to Kansas last night 56-72.

Michigan is off to a 4-1 start this season, with their only loss coming against Duke last night by a final of 82-75. They beat a solid Memphis team 73-61 in the opening round of this Maui Invitational, and I look for a similar beat down of the Bruins here tonight.

UCLA is only shooting 42.1 percent from the field this season, while allowing their opposition to shoot 48.6 percent from the floor. Michigan is cashing in on 46.8 percent of their shots, and allowing opponents to shoot just 41.1 percent from the field.

Michigan is only turning the ball over 11 times per game, and they are 18-4 ATS after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Wolverines are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Bet Michigan Wednesday.

Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia Flyers vs. NY Islanders
Play: Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers soar into New York for a divisional match up with the New York Islanders boast the leagues #1 scoring unit. The Islanders have the 29th ranked defense and will have a tough time slowing down a vaunted Philly offense. The Flyers have won all 3 vs the East and 11 of the last 12 here vs the Islanders. New York is in the midst of a slump which has seen them drop op 9 of their last 11 and 11 of 14 as a dog this season. They have also dropped 6 of 7 after allowing 4 or more goals. The Islanders don't figure to put too much of a scare into the Flyers as they are 30 the in the league in scoring. Look for the Flyers to bag another win vs a struggling Islander team.

WUNDERDOG

Calgary at Detroit
Pick: Under 5.5

Over the years the Detroit Red Wings have been a nasty team to face on home ice, especially when they have things going on the defensive end of the ice which is the case now. Just one team in their last eight games has topped the 2-goal mark. In their last four at home opponents have amassed a measly 4 goals, or 1 per contest. The Fames have had a lot of problems getting the offense going, and in their last 16 games they have managed to top the 2-goal mark just five times. When coming off a single day of rest they are now 6-0-1 to the UNDER in their last seven games. The Red Wings have played four straight to the UNDER vs. a losing team at home. The UNDER gets the call in this one.

NHL Predictions

Columbus Blue Jackets +163

Columbus has enjoyed the return of their big off season acquisition, Jeff Carter, to the lineup. Columbus has gone 2-0-1 in their last three games, with the only loss being a shutout loss in Boston against the red hot Bruins. The Blue Jackets got their first road win of the season in Nashville on Saturday and then won at home against Calgary 4-1 on Monday. Steve Mason’s injury may have been a lose-win situation for the Blue Jackets, as Curtis Sanford has been great in his place. Sanford has started all three of their past games going 2-0-1 with a 1.46 GAA and .943 SV%. New Jersey returns home after a 5 game road trip that started November 12th in Washington and finished on Monday in Florida. The Devils beat Washington, Buffalo and Tampa Bay, and lost to Boston and Monday against Florida. On the year New Jersey is 10-8-1 and 4-3-1 at home. Martin Brodeur gets the start tonight, and he is 4-4 on the season with a 3.02 GAA and .888 SV%. Many people have written off the Blue Jackets, but they’ve looked strong since the return of Jeff Carter and Sanford has been giving them the opportunity to win games. Columbus is undervalued here tonight, and they are a very live underdog at a good price. Take Columbus moneyline.

Montreal Canadiens +111

Montreal is coming off of a 1-0 home loss to Boston on Monday Night, and they are 4-2-1 in their last 7 games. Overall the Canadiens are 9-9-1-2, but have been playing pretty well since a very slow start to the season. Carolina has won two straight games coming into tonight against Toronto at home and Philadelphia on the road. Those two wins followed a stretch where they went 1-7. On the season the Hurricanes are 8-11-3 and 5-5-1 at home, making them second last in the Eastern Conference. Tonight’s game will be Carolina’s third game in four nights which includes some travel to Philadelphia, and they are just 3-7 in their last 10 in the 3rd of a 3 in 4 situation. These two teams met in Montreal last week with the Canadiens winning 4-0 as they controlled most of the game. Montreal also took three of their four meetings last season. The Canadiens have one of the leagues best penalty kills (ranked 4th) and are 100% in their last 5 games. Carolina sits near the bottom of the league in both powerplay and penalty kill. Take note that the Canadiens are 11-4-1 in their last 16 games vs Southeast divisional opponents, and are 6-2 in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. The Hurricanes are just 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win, and 1-5 in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Montreal gets Carolina in a good situation tonight and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them continue their recent winning ways against the Canes tonight. Take Montreal to win.

Sammy P

NY Rangers at Florida
Play: Under 5

The New York Rangers head to South Florida tonight to face the first place Southeast Division Florida Panthers. I have made no mistake in the early going of this 2011 NHL season of my love for both squads. They have been hot out of the gate and have what it takes to make a run at the Eastern Conference this season. The key has been superb defense as the Rangers are giving up just 2.12 goals a game while the Panthers aren't far behind giving up just 2.40 a game. Offense on the other hand can be limited at times, especially when they face one another. These teams have combined for just 36 regulation goals in their last 10 meetings. Needless to say, the under has been a money making machine standing at 8-1-1. Despite the recent success of the Florida Panthers, I do have one major concern with this team right now – lack of scoring from their depth players. Florida has seen tremendous production from its top line of Stephen Weiss, Kris Versteeg, and Tomas Fleischmann, but relatively nothing from the other nine forwards. In fact the top line has accounted for 41% of the team’s total points this year (defensemen included) and 64% of all the points by just forwards alone. To say that the Panthers live and die by this top line is an understatement and it could be a recipe for disaster if the other forwards do not pick it up, or worse the top line goes cold. I do not expect a barrage of goals tonight and scoring chances will be few and far between. If the Rangers can contain Florida’s top line tonight, this game will have no problem keeping the current string of unders alive.

Black Widow

1* Duke -4.5

With a 14-0 record and four tournament titles in the Maui Invitational, Duke (6-0) has dominated the event. The Blue Devils added to their tournament lore by shooting a blistering 56.5 percent (26 of 46) from the field in Tuesday's 82-75 semifinal win over No. 15 Michigan. Freshman guard Austin Rivers is averaging 18.3 PPG over his last three games. Seth Curry, the son of former NBA star Dell Curry and brother of current Golden State Warrior Stephen Curry, is 14 of 24 from 3-point range and averaging 16.2 points this season. This is a team loaded with firepower and experience, while Kansas is in somewhat of a transition year. That was evident in their 65-75 loss to Kentucky on November 15th as they shot just 33.9 percent from the floor, while allowing the Wildcats to hit 51.0 percent of their shots. Duke is the best team they have played yet, and the final score should reflect that. The Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less, and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral court games as a favorite of 6.0 or less. Take Duke and lay the points.

Steve Janus

Kansas +5

If this game were being played at Cameron Indoor Stadium I could see why the Blue Devils would be favored by 5 points, but this game is being played in Maui, Hawaii, where neither team has an edge when it comes to home court. To no surprise the betting public has jumped all over Duke and drove this line up, which has me siding with the Jayhawks and the 5-points. Duke is just 1-4-1 ATS the spread this season, so you can easily see they have been overvalued just about every time they take the floor.

A lot of people were down on the Jayhawks coming into the season after all the talent they lost, but the Blue Devils didn't exactly return their best players either. Kansas is better than they get credit for, and I expect this game to come down to the final possession. The Jayhawks already lost 65-75 to a very good Kentucky team, and will be motivated to not only win the Maui Invitational but show the nation they are still one of the best teams in the country.

Kansas is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games as an underdog, while Duke is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.

Hollywood Sports

Dartmouth at San Francisco
Prediction: San Francisco

The Dons (4-1) return all five starters from the team that finished 10-4 in the West Coast Conference as well as 19-14 overall before losing in the first round of the CIT postseason tournament. San Francisco does a very good job of forcing their opponents to take bad shots. Opponents took 37% of their shots from behind the arc against the Dons last season but only made 32% of these 3-point attempts. That is not a good sign for a Dartmouth team that takes 40.1% of their shots from behind the arc (60th highest in the nation) but hits only 27.0% of these 3-pointers (242nd in the nation). The Big Green have never produced a winning record in Ivy League play and have only two players on their roster who are taller than 6'5". Not surprisingly, Dartmouth has failed to cover the spread in 9 of their last 12 games against teams outside the Ivy. And they have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog in the 7-12.5 point range. San Francisco has covered 9 of their last 13 games against teams with a losing record so they should take care of business here. Lay the points with the Dons.