LT Profits
The Tampa Bay Lightning may be undefeated in regulation time at home, where they are 5-0-4, but the Toronto Maple Leafs have played much better than their record and they probably have their best goaltender in net tonight.
The Leafs are 4-11-7, but their record would obviously be much better if they had better luck in those seven overtime and shootout losses, and they are coming off of a 4-3 overtime loss to the New York Islanders on Monday where they got off an incredible 61 shots on goal. These factors have served to make the Leafs an underrated club right now, and they are worth following as decided underdogs in the short term.
The other significant occurrence in that Islanders game was the departure of goaltender Vesa Toskala in the second period with a groin injury, prompting his placement on injured reserve. Given the play if Toskala this season and the wrath he has incurred from Toronto fans, this a may actually not be a bad thing. Jonas Gustavsson should now get the start tonight, and he has the lowest GAA (3.18) and best save percentage (.900) of the Leafs goalies this year.
Besides, the Lightning are not really an elite NHL team, so we see their home record as a negative since they are nor nearly that good, meaning a return to normalcy is imminent. In fact, the visiting teams are 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings including a 4-3 Leafs victory in their last trip to Tampa last March.
Look for a repeat performance tonight as Toronto pulls the upset.
Pick: Maple Leafs +125
MTI Sports
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: Over
The Warriors are 7-0 OU (10.4 ppg) after a win on the road in which Monta Ellis played more than 40 minutes and 9-0 OU (11.8 ppg) since on the road with no rest after a game in which they committed at least twenty turnovers. . The Spurs are 4-0 OU (12.9 ppg) at home with at least a day of rest after a win in which Tim Duncan had a double double. Consider these two OVER.
Matt Fargo
Tenn Martin at Arkansas State
Prediction: Tenn Martin
This line is based on early season records and that should not be the case. Tennessee-Martin is 1-2 but it has played two tough road games at Missouri and Southern Illinois so it has already been tested. The Skyhawks had a great season last year and they likely are not going to duplicate it as they have to replace two-time OVC Player of the Year Lester Hudson as well as head coach Bret Campbell. It won?t be easy but there is some good experience remaining. They bring back both starting guards and there is a lot of experience down low which helps in this matchup. Arkansas St. meanwhile has faced UTEP and SE Missouri St. and while the former is going to be good, the Red Wolves were blasted by 26 points. They were pretty bad last season and return just two starters heading into this season after disciplinary action cut two other starters loose. Making matters worse is that one of two returning starters, Donald Boone, is lost for the season after a knee injury in the first game of the season. He was supposed to be the go to guy after averaging 13.6 ppg last season. His loss hurts an already thin backcourt. Arkansas St. is starting three freshmen and a sophomore along with JeJuan Brown, one of only two remaining seniors on the roster after the loss of Boone. Tennessee-Martin is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog while the Red Wolves are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite. 3* Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Bucks/Hornets UNDER 202
Bottom Line: The Under is 17-5 in the Hornets last 22 home games period and the Under has been the play when New Orleans tackles strong competition. In fact, New Orleans is 14-4 Under in home games versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ points per game over the last 2 seasons. The average total score in these games is just 185.3 points. I know Brandon Jennings has helped boost the Milwaukee offense, but the Bucks haven't been nearly as explosive on the road, averaging just 91.0 ppg. I'll bet the Under for 1 Unit.
Dave Price
1 Unit on NY Knicks +4.5
Sacramento is 4-2 at home this season because it is able to force its will on its opponents, making them play an uptempo style they are comfortable with. Well, the Knicks are an uptempo team and I expect them to be able to trade hoops with the Kings all night long. The Knicks have covered the spread in 4 straight and have just played two of the NBA's best teams, the Celtics and Lakers, very tough. I expect the Knicks to gain confidence from those two close losses and to give the Kings all they want and more tonight. Here's the key: NY is 15-3 ATS in road games versus good offensive teams scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.
Tom Freese
Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche
Play: Over 5½
Colorado is 4-0 OVER their last 4 home games and they are 4-1 OVER their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Avalanche is 5-2 OVER when playing with one day of rest and they are 5-2 OVER their last 7 Conference games. Nashville is 9-1-1 OVER on Wednesday and they are 5-2 OVER after allowing 2 goals or less in their last game. The Predators are 3-1-1 OVER vs. a team with a winning record and they are 4-1 UNDER vs. Northwest Division teams PLAY ON 'OVER'
John Ryan
Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic
Play:Orlando Magic -9
Ai Simulator 3* graded play UNDER Miami/Orlando set to start at 7:00 EST. AiS shows a 74% probability that 193 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 114-69 for 62% winners since 2004. Play under with any team after being beaten by the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games and with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. AiS reveals that Orlando will not shoot lights out from behind the arc. AiS shows a 90% probability that Orlando will shoot between 32 and 38% from behind the arc. Note that Orlando is 24-13 UNDER (+9.7 Units) when they make 32% to 38% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 2 seasons. Orlando is also 27-15 UNDER (+10.5 Units) versus good shooting teams making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Miami is a solid 14-4 UNDER (+9.6 Units) in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons. Take the UNDER.
Wunderdog
Atlanta Thrashers vs. Detroit Red Wings
Play: Detroit Red Wings -165
The Detroit Red Wings were credited with a home loss in a game against St. Louis early on, leaving them with just one home loss on the season and just nine a year ago. The bottom line is that you had better bring your "A" game if you want to win here, and even that may not be enough. They play tight and have allowed just 21 goals in their 10 games in Detroit on the season. Atlanta has played tough on the road this season, but like most other teams, they have yet to solve the Red Wings, winning just 2 of the last 11 meetings, and one of the last six in Detroit. I'm backing Detroit on the moneyline in this one.
Duquesne vs. Western Carolina
Play: Western Carolina +2
Something will give here as both of these teams are off to good starts to open the season. Duquesne owns an impressive win over Iowa, but really struggled their last time on the floor vs. little-known Arkansas-Monticello, needing overtime to steal a two-point win. The Catamounts have taken three of four and lost, as expected, to Texas. What might be noteworthy here is that the Dukes beat Binghamton by 18 points while the Catamounts blew them out by 30, a common opponent, with the results very appealing to the Catamounts. Melquan Bolding won't play for the Dukes as after scoring 25, he broke his wrist and will miss four weeks or so, leaving a hole in the offense. The Dukes are not very impressive off a straight-up win at just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 and without Bolding, they could be in trouble here. Im going with Western Carolina.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Cavs/Pistons UNDER 184
Detroit was supposed to become a more uptempo team this season, but so far its identity remains the same. Detroit is a rugged team, scoring just 88.8 ppg and allowing 84.4 ppg at home. With both teams coming into this one well-rested, I expect a very physical Central Division battle. The Under is a ridiculous 23-1 in the last 24 meetings between these two teams. In six games between these two teams at Detroit the last two seasons, we've seen the score going Under the total in all 6 of them. The average total number set in these games was 183.5 and the average total score of the game was 170 points. The Under is 4-0-1 in the Cavaliers last 5 vs. the NBA Central and 4-0 in the Pistons last 4 vs. the NBA Central. That's the nature of the division and we'll make the call for 1 unit tonight.
Tony George
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Cleveland -5.5
The Cavs OWN the Pistons, and will again tonight. With Prince and Rip Hamilton out, the Pistons simply do have the horses to run with a team like the Cavs. The Cavs have been the recipient of some very high lines from oddsmakers lately, double digits the last 3 out of 5 games, which are hard to cover for any team in the NBA. With their frontcourt in better health, and Shaq back tonight on the post, a short number for a far better team who is on 8-2 SU run, I doubt the Cavs overlook a winnable road game. They get the cover tonight. Remeber the Cavs swept the Pistons out of the playoffs last year without breaking a sweat, and Detroit was better then, than they are now!!