John Ryan
St. Bonaventure at Ohio University
Prediction: St. Bonaventure
The simulator shows a high probability that St. Bonaventure (STB) will lose this game by 10 or fewer points. The pace of this game will be significantly slower than the average College game and this heavily favor STB to get the cover. The sim shows a high probability that STB will attempt between 46 and 53 shots, will attempt between four and nine more free throws, will have nine to 13 offensive boards and will win the battle of the boards by a margin of at least four boards. In past games, STB is a solid 21-9 ATS in slower paced games where they attempt 46 to 53 shots over the last 3 seasons; 27-13 ATS in road games when they attempt 4 to 9 more free throws than opponents in a game since 1997; 13-5 ATS when they grab 9 to 13 offensive rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons; 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in road games when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1997. STB is coming off a 80-75 win over Niagara and solid free throw shooting was a major reason they held on to earn the win. STB is a solid 14-5 ATS after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better over the last 3 seasons. Take St. Bonaventure.
Jesse Schule
Michigan St vs. Miami-Florida
Pick: Michigan St
Michigan State has not played the type of basketball that coach Tom Izzo would like to see from his team this season. The Spartans have turned the ball over 67 times in their last four games, and they have had a few close calls against teams that they should have beaten easily. That being said, since the Spartans lost to UCONN in their season opener in Germany, they have won five straight games>>
Michigan State has not played the type of basketball that coach Tom Izzo would like to see from his team this season. The Spartans have turned the ball over 67 times in their last four games, and they have had a few close calls against teams that they should have beaten easily.
That being said, since the Spartans lost to UCONN in their season opener in Germany, they have won five straight games, including a 67-64 victory over #7 ranked Kansas.
Michigan State has been missing a few key players from the lineup, with Travis Trice and Garry Harris unavailable due to injury. Coach Izzo doesn't want to use this as an excuse, and he acknowledges that the turnovers are an issue that needs to be resolved: "I don't like the way our team is at all," Izzo said. "I'm just trying to figure how much of it is due to our preparation or lack thereof with the guys who are injured. But that doesn't have anything to do with some of my key guys turning it over four or five times."
While the Spartans have had their issues, I still think they are by far the better team here tonight. Michigan State is an underdog, despite the fact that they come in as the #13 ranked team, off five straight victories. They certainly have the talent, and I wouldn't count on them continuing to turn the ball over for the remainder of the season, this is an area where they will improve.
I like the Spartans to win outright,
But take Michigan State + the points.
Joe Gavazzi
Clemson -4
Massive rebuilding job for 8th year Purdue head man Matt Painter! He lost the heart and soul of his team in Hummel, Moore and Johnson. Losses to the only 3 quality opponents he has faced, Bucknell, Villanova and Oregon State (by 29 points to the spread) speak volumes. Now he must make his first true road trip to a LittleJohn Coliseum which is never easy for visitors. Third year Clemson HC Brownell has gotten positive early returns from a group of mostly his recruits who have bought in to his philosophy of defense, rebounding and tempo. His Tigers enter on a 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS run in which they have covered by 29 points including a 21 point victory vs. UTEP and giving Gonzaga their closest contest of the year. No one has scored more than 59 points against the defense that's allowing just 52 PPG.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Houston/ Oklahoma City Over 207.5: Google News Play The Rockets play a very up tempo game and it has resulted in some high scoring games for them. 4 of Houston's last 6 games have put up at least 218 points, averaging 215 ppg over that stretch. their defense has been very bad of late, allowing 105.3 ppg in their last 8 games and will be facing a very hot Oklahoma City offense tonight. The Thunder come in having hit 110+ points in 5 of their last 6 games, averaging 112.7 ppg over that stretch. At home the Thunder have averaged 107.4 ppg, while the Rockets have allowed 105.2 ppg on the road. The Thunder defense is middle of the pack, allowing 96.3 ppg, but I do see a Rockets offense that has averaged 108 ppg in their last 5 games putting up at least 100 points in this one, while the Thunder may eclipse 110 points once again. I look for at least 215 points in this one.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Virginia/ Wisconsin Over 113: Google News Play The Badgers usually play solid defense but they have been a bit inconsistent at that end of the floor, allowing 70+ points 3 times so far. Overall they come in allowing 59.7 ppg, while the Cavaliers have put up 65.3 ppg on the year, so I fully expect Virginia to hit at least 57 points in this one. The Badgers have been a solid offensive club this year as they have averaged a healthy 75.8 ppg on the year. This is a good shooting team that hits 44.4% of their shots (138th) and that includes 35.3% from long range (123rd). Virginia is also a good shooting team, hitting 45.2% of their shots (108th), while also hitting 37.4% from long ranges (76th). Defensively the Cavs have been solid, but the Badger offense has been very good and should be able to notch at least 60 points tonight. Both teams do slow the pace, but both also take allot of 3's and have been good from behind the arc, plus this could be a physical game with a lot of fouls and both teams are very good from the line. Look for this one to finish in the 120's.
3 UNIT PLAYS
CREIGHTON -13.5 over Boise State: These Blue Jays are for real as they are ranked 11th in the country with a 6-0 record. Of Creighton's 6 wins, 5 have been by at least 14 points and they have outscored their opponents by 28.5 ppg at home. Their last 2 games were vs Power 6 conferences (Arizona State and Wisconsin) and they had little trouble in those games winning by DD in each. Creighton comes in shooting 53.4% on the year, while holding teams to just 38.5% shooting from the floor, so they have been very good at both ends of the floor. Boise State has had a good start, going 4-1 in the early going but all 4 wins were at home and in 2 of those home wins (UL-Lafayette & Oakland) they failed to cover the spread, shooting a combined 41.1% in the 2 games. They are an average shooting team (44.3%), but at they defensive end not so hot, as they allow teams to hit 45.1% of their shots, which is 276th in the country. Not good when your about to face the 4th ranked shooting team in the Nation. Boise State is picked by most for 7th in the MWC, Creighton is one of those teams with the tools to make a serious run in the Big Dance. Creighton flexes it's muscles again.
Temple -6 over BUFFALO: This owls team has a chance to have a special year. Fran Dunphy has done a great job in getting Temple back to being one of the better Mid-major programs in the country. This year they are off to a solid 3-1 start, which includes a 14 point win at a very good Kansas State squad. Buffalo was to challenge in the MAC this year, but that may be hard especially the way they have been playing to start the year. The Bulls are just 2-5 on the year and they have had some bad losses, losing to Canisius and Yale away from home and Western Illinois at home. Well Temple is head and shoulders better than those 3 teams. Really don't see how the Owls don't win this one by DD. KEY TREND--- The Owls are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 vs the MAC.
Michigan State/ Miami Over 133: I know that Michigan state is a very good defense as they allow just 58.8 ppg , but this Miami offense has been very good this year as they have averaged 72 ppg on a very nice 47.4% shooting. The Spartan offense has been average at best this year, but they have put up 69 ppg in their last 3 games and should have some good success vs a Miami team that just hasn't been tested defensively just yet. Miami has allowed 65.2 ppg, but all vs creampuffs and should an underrated Spartans offense but up some good points in this one. Both teams like the uptempo game and that should allow both teams to score at least 67 points each. This one may hit 140+. KEY TREND--- Miami is 6-1 OVER in their last 7 non-conference games.
Wyoming -2.5 over UCSB: The Cowboys are off to a solid 6-0 start and they have done it like always, at the defensive end of the floor. Wyoming comes in 16th in the nation in points allowed (53.7 ppg) and 33rd in defensive FG%, allowing just 36.8% shooting. This defense is a bad matchup for a UCSB offense that is 228th in scoring (65.6 ppg) and 200th in shooting (42.9%). UCSB has really struggled to score in their last 2 games, putting up just 56.5 ppg over that stretch. The Gaucho defense has struggled this year as well as they come in allowing 69.6 ppg (242nd) on 43.6% shooting (233rd). Offensive the Cowboys are led by Washington (15.0 ppg, 9.5 rpg) who has really excelled in the paint for the Cowboys. He is a threat to post a double-double every night and can step back and hit shots from the outside as well. The Gauchos don't really have an inside presence that can slow him down. Overall the Cowboys average 67.5 ppg on 43% shooting. Wyoming has a few more scoring options than the Gauchos do. but in the end it will be their lock down defense that will win this one for them. Cowboys by 7+ here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Weber State +14 -106 over DAYTON
The Dayton Flyers are an A-10 team that has won 20 games or more in each of the past five years. However, its win total has declined progressively over that span with last year’s 20 wins being the fewest in that time frame. They may decline even further this season with just one proven scorer in Kevin Dillard and center Matt Kavanaugh being suspended. Kavanaugh was the teams’ second leading rebounder and fifth leading scorer. The Flyers come in with a 4-1 record but none of the wins against weak completion have been by more than the points offered here. They also lost by 10 to Colorado on a neutral floor.
Weber State returns two starters in 6-2 senior swingman Scott Bamforth and 6-10 junior center Kyle Tresnak. Frank Otis, a 2011 mid-season transfer, gives Weber's front line an additional boost. Otis is a 6’-6” senior and was the starting power forward before getting hurt. The Wildcats have only played three games so far and with a 1-2 record, they remain undervalued here. This is a well-coached team that has established itself as one of the most consistent programs in the Big Sky and they will not be a pushover in this contest.
Georgia Tech +9 -106 over ILLINOIS
The Illini went from being unranked to begin the year all the way up to #7 on the current polls. That dramatic rise was due to their championship run in the Maui Invitational tournament and easy wins over Butler and USC. That performance has this 7-0 team grossly overvalued, allowing us to take advantage. Those lopsided victories over USC and Butler were more a case of both those squads being lethargic than the Illini’s dominance. Don’t dismiss the Illini’s struggles against Hawaii and Gardiner Webb in which they won both by a single point, the former in OT when the Rainbows turned the ball over 16 times and shot 39% from the field.
Georgia Tech is coming off an 11-20 season but is confident it can turn things around this year with seven key players returning, including all five starters. Brian Gregory will be coaching for his second year at Georgia Tech. The Jackets are off to a solid 4-1 start and that includes a tidy win over the Gaels of St Mary’s. This ascending guest should be primed and ready to give the Illini a run for their money.
SPORTS WAGERS
Brooklyn +4 +100 over BOSTON
The Celtics have yet to show they can defend and that makes them risky spotting points to a dangerous intruder. Boston has allowed 100 points or more in four straight and in five of its last six. Orlando and Detroit, who rank 28th and 25th respectively in points scored, both went over the century mark on Boston over that span. The Nets rank 15th in PPG but they rank 3rd in offensive proficiency, meaning they score on a high percentage of their possessions. They’re also a strong defensive club that has allowed 89, 85 and 76 points against over their last three.
Brooklyn comes in off that big game against the Knicks and there’s a letdown factor looming here. However, they’ve been in some letdown spots already this season and have not fell victim to it. This team is clicking on all cylinders, both offensively and defensively. Boston is more vulnerable this year than they’ve been in some time. The Nets are too focused and determined to ignore against a club they should defeat.
Jack Jones
Michigan State Spartans +1.5
Michigan State plays a tough non-conference schedule early every year to prepare it for big games like this and bigger ones down the road. They split their first two contests, losing to Connecticut 62-66 while beating Kansas 67-64. Those two games have them battle-tested going forward.
While the Spartans have won five straight, head coach Tom Izzo has not been happy with his team turning the ball over 20 times in back-to-back games. "I think our guys are going to be great citizens when they get done with basketball, because the Christmas season is lasting all year," Izzo said. "They're giving gifts away."
"I don't like the way our team is at all," Izzo said. "I'm just trying to figure how much of it is due to our preparation or lack thereof with the guys who are injured. But that doesn't have anything to do with some of my key guys turning it over four or five times."
Izzo always has a way of calling out his players and getting them to respond. I look for the Spartans to put forth their most dominant effort of the season Wednesday at Miami. They'll be up against a Hurricanes' team that is only forcing 14.3 turnovers/game.
Miami will not be battle-tested at all coming into this contest as it has played a very weak schedule en route to a 3-1 start. It has home wins over Stetson, Jacksonville and Detroit, and a road loss at Florida Gulf Coast by a final of 51-63. That loss shows that the Hurricanes have a lot of work to do, and this will be by far their stiffest test of the season.
Michigan State is 8-0 ATS vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons. The Spartans are 24-7-2 ATS in their last 33 road games following three or more consecutive home games. The Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten opponents. Bet Michigan State Wednesday.
Steve Janus
New Orleans Hornets +3
The Jazz should simply not be favored on the road against any team in the league. Utah comes into this game with a respectable 8-7 overall record, but they are 6-0 at home and 2-7 on the road. They have already lost at New Orleans once this season and have lost their last four visits to New Orleans Arena.
The Hornets will be playing without rookie center Anthony Davis. NO question it's a big loss, but he played just 14 minutes in the Hornets win over the Jazz earlier this season. New Orleans didn't need Davis on Monday, as they went into Los Angeles and beat the Clippers 105-98 without him on the floor.
New Orleans is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs a team with a losing road record and are 12-3 ATS over their last 15 home games overall. Utah is 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 road games and are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Dave Price
Minnesota Timberwolves +9
The Clippers are getting a little too much respect from oddsmakers considering they have lost four in a row overall and three of their last four versus Minnesota. Since coach Adelman took over, the T-Wolves are an outstanding 14-3 ATS versus good teams like L.A. that outscore their opponents by 3.0 points or more per game. The Wolves have won these games by an average score of 100.5 to 100.3. Take the points.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Knicks -2
Motivated by Monday's loss at Brooklyn, expect the Knicks to bounce back strong tonight.
New York is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games following a loss. In addition, it is 27-13 ATS in all games under coach Woodson, including 16-5 ATS when listed as a favorite.
The Bucks enter off a win at Chicago, but they are on a 3-14 ATS slide following a win, a 4-16 ATS slide in home games off a road win and a 13-31 ATS skid off an upset win over a division rival. It is also worth noting that the Bucks are only 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games.
The Knicks have won their last two versus the Bucks, and I expect them to make it three straight in this bounce-back spot.
Jeff Alexander
Dallas Mavericks +6.5
The Bulls are just 3-10 ATS this season, including 0-7 ATS at home. The Mavs are an outstanding 36-15 ATS in road games in the first half of the season under coach Carlisle. Also, the underdog is on a 6-2 ATS run in the series. Take the points.
Timothy Black
OHIO STATE vs. DUKE
PLAY: OHIO STATE
The Buckeyes are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning % above .600 and they have covered in 4 straight games against ACC opponents. The Blue Devils are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games, including both games this season.
Scott Delaney
My free pick run is now at 40-21-2, and tonight out of the ACC/Big 10 Challenge I am taking the road underdog Boston College Eagles, plus the points in Happy Valley against the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Last season the Lions vame into Chestnut Hill and scored a 62-54 win, and I think the Eagles are going to be out for revenge in this one. I know B.C. has lost four of its last five games, including a 56-54 loss to Bryant at home on Sunday, but that was four days after knocking off SEC-foe Auburn, 50-49. Call it a letdow, or perhaps a lookahead to this game, but I don't think Bryant wins that game again.
After all, the Eagles seem to make a big deal of this annual series with the Big 10, sporting a 3-1 mark at home, and perfect 2-0 mark on the road. That only blemish - last year at home to Penn State.
Talk about incentive for revenge.
Boston College, which averaged just 59.3 points per game last season, has a bit more of an explosive offense, scoring 66.7 points per game as opposed to Penn State's 59. Both are being outscored by their opponents - B.C. by 2.8 and Penn State by 5.8. Overall, I think the Eagles have the better team, and create more scoring opportunities for themselves.
I'll take a shot with the road team here.
3♦ BOSTON COLLEGE
Another free winner for Hump Day, as I head into the Southern Conference, which opens its league schedule, and I like the Elon Phoenix getting points on the road from the Georgia Southern Eagles at Hanner Fieldhouse in Statesboro, Ga.
Elon, which is 4-4 all-time on the road against Georgia Southern, is off to a better start this season, sporting a 4-2 mark on the year. So even though Elon has a 4-5 record in league lid-lifters, I think this is a good spot for it to open the season right. The Phoenix have a junior-laden starting lineup - all four were starters last year - and boast four players who are averaging double digits in scoring.
Of all members of the Southern Conference, Elon has the best record, and is one of only three with a winning mark. The Citadel and College of Charleston are 3-2.
Of their preseason games, I am most impressed by a 65-53 win over South Carolina, out fo the SEC back on Nov. 21. The Phoenix couldn't carry the momentum over to their next game, at Virginia Military, and I just think they might have been hung over from the win over the Gamecocks.
With time to focus, I'll take the better team in this clash, and look for a road win.
4♦ ELON
Chuck O'Brien
Here I am back on the court with another easy winner. Are you really going to ignore this double-digit winner, my One-and-Only 80 DIME Non-Conference Game of the Year?
My first freebie for Wednesday night is going to be on the Temple Owls, laying points on the road in Buffalo against the Bulls. Though I know the Bulls have played twice as many games as Temple already, I'm much more comfy with the traditional power out of the Big 5 in this clash, than I am a somewhat shaky and inconsistent team like Buffalo.
The Owls take the court with a perfect 3-0 mark after outlasting Delaware, 80-75, in a wild shootout that displayed plenty of sharpshooting by both teams. While the Fightin' Blue Hens had no problem finding the net with a 56.9 shooting clip, they were a rather bleak 4 of 12 from beyond the arc. The Owls, on the other hand, connected at a 48.1 percent clip but were 11 of 29 from downtown.
Temple impressively stayed balanced with its attack as four players scored in double figures, led by Scottie Randall's 18 points and eight rebounds, while Khaliff Wyatt also scored 18 with seven assists. The Owls just seem to have a talented enough roster that has a plethora of scorers, which helps if someone is having an off night.
Buffalo has lost its firepower from last season. A 76-57 win over Mansfield does not impress me. I'm more interested in the fact the Bulls are 2-5 on the year, not to mention they've gotten out of the 50s only three times - twice of which they lost. It's just quite noticeable the Bulls are missing talent from last season, lack an identity right now and still need time to gel.
Admittedly, both teams are not what they were a year ago. But Temple is always a force to reckon with, has the tradition and is in better shape right now. Lay the road chalk.
3♦ TEMPLE
My second free winner for Wednesday is going to be out of the ACC/Big 10 Challenge, and I'm taking a shot here with No. 4 Ohio State down in Durham, North Carolina, as I think the Buckeyes can give the second -ranked Duke Blue Devils a hard time.
I know the Devils are out for revenge from last season's dismantling on a night when then-No. 3 Duke played at then-No. 2 Ohio State, and the Buckeyes were near-flawless. The Buckeyes scored the game's first 11 points, led by 19 at halftime and went ahead by as many as 25 at one point, en route to an 85-63 rout.
And remember, that was an Ohio State team that went to the Final Four.
It almost seems as if the roles are reversed this season, after seeing what Duke has done to start the season, with impressive wins over Minnesota, Virginia Commonwealth and then-No. 2 Louisville last week to win the Battle for Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas. But I don't know if the Buckeyes are as tired and lethargic as the Devils were at this point last season.
Ohio State, which has won 16 of 22 games on opponents’ home courts the past two seasons, knows the challenge it is up against, as Duke has won 96 consecutive games in Cameron against nonconference opponents, a school record and the longest active streak in the country.
And the Buckeyes have to be just as geared up for this game, as they've yet to play a ranked opponent, and realize this Blue Devils team is already being compared to the group that won the championship in 2010.
So with all this working against the Bucks, how is it I could possibly take the points?
Though they lost two dependable scorers from a year ago in William Buford and Jared Sullinger, those who returned have done well for the Buckeyes on the whole.
Ohio State ranks No. 1 in 3-point field goal percentage among the 345 Division I teams in men's basketball. It ranks in the Top 10 in assist-to-turnover ratio (6th/+1.63) and fewest turnovers per game (5th/9.5 per game). Individually, junior Deshaun Thomas is sixth in scoring with 24.0 points per game, while teammate Aaron Craft is No. 5 in assist-to-turnover ratio at +7.0, while sophomore Shannon Scott shows no sign of inexperience and ranks 16th at +5.0.
The team ranks 33rd nationally with 79.8 points per game, and 12th in the nation with a 22.5 scoring margin against its four foes.
I think this will be a little more competitive than the revenge-minded folks believe it will be. Take the road underdog here.
1♦ OHIO STATE