Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, November 30

Hollywood Sports

Canadiens at Ducks
Prediction: Under

The Canadiens (10-10-2-2) lost their second game in a row after their 4-3 loss in overtime to Pittsburgh on Saturday. Now Montreal travels across the continent to Anaheim and they have played 4 of their last 5 games Under the Total against teams with a losing record. The Ducks (6-13-1-3) have lost seven games in a row themselves after their 5-2 loss to Toronto on Sunday -- and Anaheim has played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total after failing to score more than two goals in their last contest. The Canadiens, in contrast, have seen the Under go 3-1-1 in their last 5 games against a team that did not score at least three goals in their last game. These team trends that help to identify their respective personalities regarding how they handle situations like this complements the fact that the Ducks own a decisive 30-10-3 with the Under in their last 43 home games where they were a small favorite in the -110 to -150 price range. Not surprisingly, 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams have gone Under the Total. Take the Under again for this contest.

Jim Feist

UNLV at UC Santa Barbara
Play: UC Santa Barbara +4

First game for UNLV since that huge 90-80 upset of top ranked North Carolina. This is their first road game, too, and a big left down spot. The Runnin' Rebels are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS win. Cal Santa Barbara is a strong team (4-1), off their first loss, taking SDSU to overtime before losing by a point. This team is 21st in the nation in rebounding and shoots 47% as a team. The Gauchos are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall and match up well. Play Cal State Santa

JR O'Donnell

Tampa Bay Lightning +150

Ring up the 11-10 Tampa Bay Lightning tonight as a members move as we will stand in front on the High Flying Redwings tonight.... Value all over the Tb Lightning tonight guys as the Visitor has the moxy and matches up well vs the Joe Louis Arena home town crew..... Public will ride the home town hype as the Jimmy Howard lead Wings are 24-5 last 29 vs the Lightning.. Dangerous bunch of Visitors tonight as we have this power rated tonight as a Wings - 122 favorite.. We will play the Lightning to shock the Wings.

DAVID BANKS

Wisconsin / North Carolina Under

The ACC/Big Ten Challenge ramps back up with a good one Wednesday night in Chapel Hill where the North Carolina Tar Heels (5-1, 3-2 ATS) will look to bounce back from their first loss of the season against the undefeated Wisconsin Badgers (60-, 3-0 ATS); tip-off from the Dean Smith Center is set to go live on ESPN & ESPN.com at 9:30 ET.

Once again, Head coach Bo Ryan’s Badgers have gotten off to a great start to their current campaign winning all six of their games played to date while covering all three of their lined tussles. No, the opposition hasn’t been the toughest, but great teams destroy lesser competition when given the chance, and that’s exactly what Wiscy has done heading into its toughest match-up of the season. Last we saw the Badgers, they won the Chicago Invitational Challenge by disposing of the BYU Cougars 73-56 in the title game. Ben Brust came off the bench to knock down seven of his 10 shots from beyond the arc, while the Badgers limited the Cougars to just 43.1 percent shooting en route to the neutral court win and pointspread cover. Wisconsin won just five of their 11 true road games played last season; this will be its first true road game of the 2011-12 season.

North Carolina went into its regular season campaign ranked 1st in the country with Harrison Barnes, John Henson, and Tyler Zeller all back for another go round at a national championship. Head Coach Roy Williams’ kids parlayed the nation’s top ranking into five straight wins to start the year which included a win atop the USS Carl Vinson’s deck over the Michigan State Spartans. The pointspread cover was the first of three for the Heels in their first four lined games. Then came the championship game of the Las Vegas Invitational against UNLV whom UNC had defeated in the previous three clashes. The Heels were bombarded from beyond the arc, and poor execution at the charity stripe led to the team’s first loss of the season. The Tar Heels possess a pair of blowout over Mississippi Valley State and Tennessee State at home to date, and haven’t fallen at home in their L/16 tries.

These teams last met back in 2005 when UNC scored the 88-82 win but Wiscy cashed as 9.5-point underdogs. The Badgers invade the Dean Dome 5-1 ATS their L/6 non-conference tussles and an impressive 11-1 ATS versus ACC opposition. They do however stand just 2-5 ATS their L/7 games away from Madison. North Carolina is 8-2 ATS its L/10 clashes against the Big 10, but might be without the services of Harrison Barnes for this one who rolled his ankle against UNLV.

Matt Fargo

Florida State vs. Michigan State
Play: Florida State +5½

Florida St. is coming off two losses in the Bahamas in back-to-back nights but we can expect a bounceback tonight. The Seminoles were held in check against a very strong Harvard team as they actually outshot the Crimson but made 13 fewer free throws which ended up being the difference. They were taken to overtime the next night against Connecticut after the Huskies hit three clutch free throws at the end of regulation to tie the score and Florida St. missed several opportunities late in overtime.

Michigan St has won four straight games after starting the season with back-to-back losses against North Carolina and Duke. The Spartans have played no one of significance since then so this is their first real test since that tough opening. They are coming off a 32-point win on the road at Eastern Michigan and while the last four games have been blowouts, the Spartans are not shooting the ball well, hitting just 42.2 percent of their shots. That is not a sign coming into this game.

Florida St. is known for defense and that is certainly the case again here as it has held each of its seven opponents this season below 50 percent shooting and going back further it has held 105 of its last 108 opponents below 50 percent shooting from the field. This season the Seminoles are 10th in shooting defense, allowing just 33.7 percent from the floor. This defense, along with balance, will keep them around in nearly every game this season which makes points a premium, favoring the underdog.

The Spartans used to be one of the best free throw shooting teams in the nation but dipped to 142nd in the country last year and this season they are hitting just 63.9 percent from the stripe, which is good for 246th. Michigan St. is just above 60 percent at home. This is the first true road game for Florida St. but it has had winning road records in each of the last three years so it is not a concern. The Spartans are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games following a win by 30 or more points.

Jeffrey James

North Carolina -8

Very tough spot here for Wisconsin since they have to take on the Tar Heels coming off of an upset loss to UNLV and they have to do it on the road. Wisconsin is a solid team but they have played nobody so far which will really hurt them stepping up this much in class.

SPORTS WAGERS

New Jersey +145 over COLORADO (3-way betting line)

Lots of reasons to go against the Avalanche here and we’ll start with their current form. Colorado has four wins in 13 home games and overall they’ve lost six of its last eight games. The Av’s will play their sixth straight of an eight game home stand at the Pepsi Center and that’s not beneficial to a struggling team, as they don’t get the benefit of “bonding” on the road. The Av’s have nothing but difficulties against physical teams, as they are small up front and they don’t like to play tough in the dirty areas in front of the net. They’re a team that can be pushed around and that’s why they’re an easy target. The Devils are physically tough. They play hard every night and they play a methodical style that allows them to wear down and frustrate the opposition. There isn’t a more frustrated team on the circuit right now than these Av’s and we expect these systematic Devils to take care of business. Play: New Jersey +145 (Risking 2 units).

DUQUENSE +6/+231 over Pittsburgh

We’re going to split this up and play a unit on both the money line and points. At the moment the Panthers are ranked #17 in the land but that’s going to change, as this year’s edition of the Panthers is not close to being a top-25 team. They’ve played nothing but cupcakes all season and have posted a 5-1 record with narrow wins over LaSalle and Rider and a home loss shocker to Long Beach State. This is Pittsburgh’s toughest test of the season thus far and they may not be prepared to face a quality team. The Dukes can keep pace with the Panthers. They’re loaded with scorers and already have four players averaging better than double digits per game. They play in a tough A-10 conference and they appear ready to compete for a top spot in the conference. This is a defining game for the Dukes and one they have to come up big in to be taken seriously. An outright win is a distinct possibility. Play: #756 Duquesne +6 (Risking 1.1 units to win 1) Play: #756 Duquesne +231 (Risking 1 unit).

Florida St +7½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

UC Riverside +151 (Risking 2 units).

Rocketman

Florida Atlantic @ Kansas
Play: Florida Atlantic +21

Florida Atlantic is 7-1 ATS since 1997 as a road underdog of 18 1/2 to 24 points. Kansas is 0-6 ATS last 3 years when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Hopefully Kansas will come out rusty off a long lay off here tonight. Kansas is only 3-2 SU this year as they have lost to Duke and Kentucky in the early going. Florida Atlantic has covered 4 of their last 5 non-conference games. Kansas is 2-8 ATS last 10 games against a team with a losing record. Kansas are 1-4 ATS last 5 games as a favorite of 13 points or greater. We'll recommend a small play on Florida Atlantic tonight!

Larry Ness

Dayton -8.5

The Buffalo Bulls of the MAC are 3-1 but one most note that the three wins have come at home, while the loss is at 2-5 Princeton, a team which has lost to Wagner and Elon at home and whose only other win this year has come over West Alabama. I'm very wary of the Bulls, as they visit Dayton. The Flyers of the A-10 are 5-1 after capturing the Old Spice Classic in Orlando last weekend, routing Minnesota 86-70 in the final game. Buffalo is coming off a 20-14 season and four of five starters return (lost Mulkey, who averaged 13.1 PPG and 4.6 APG). That doesn't include the 6-6 McCrae, who came off the bench last year, but leads the team in scoring at 16.8-6.3 so far this season. Filzen (13.0) is the team's best guard and joining McCrae up front is the 6-10 Watt, who is averaging 14.0 PPG and 6.3 RPG. A trouble spot early is that Filzen (37.5%) and Oldham (26.1%), the team's starting guards, are both shooting poorly. Dayton lost the 6-8 Wright (13.2-8.4) from last year's team and was surprised when PG Staten (8.5-5.4 APG) transferred to West Va. However, Southern Illinois transfer Dillard has filled Staten's role, leading the team in scoring (13.3 PPG) and assists (5.5 per game). Williams (11.8) and Parker (8.20 are two veteran guards who join Dillard plus the Flyers are very solid up front. The 6-6 Johnson (11.3-6.2), the 6-9 Benson (11.2-5.2) and the 6-9 Kavanaugh (7.7-8.2) are solid and very experienced. The only reason I'm not making the Flyers a stronger play is I'm mildly concerned of a let down off the team's impressive tourney showing last weekend. Still, lay the points with Dayton.

Steve Janus

Creighton +2½

Both Creighton(5-0) and San Diego State(7-1) have got off to fast starts. There isn't a whole lot that separates these two teams, but tonight I will give the Blue Jays a slight edge to not only cover the spread but win the game outright.

San Diego State has played back-to-back tough games at Arizona and UC-Santa Barbara. Tonight's matchup against Creighton will be their third game in the last week. While it's still early in the season, they are going to have some tired legs, especially with all the traveling.

Creighton comes in averaging 89.6 ppg and are shooting over 54% from the field. They play an up-tempo style that I believe will wear down the Aztecs in the second half.

Creighton is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games,20-8 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Jack Jones

Notre Dame +11½

Notre Dame comes into this game undervalued after their "slow" 5-2 start. Meanwhile, 19th-ranked Gonzaga is certainly overvalued at this point in the season after their 4-0 start. I'll side with the double-digit dog Irish in this one.

Both of Notre Dame's losses have come against quality opponents in Missouri and Georgia. This tough early schedule will benefit the Irish going forward, especially here tonight.

The Bulldogs have yet to play a real quality opponent, yet two of their four wins have been by single-digits. This is a quality team, but they shouldn't be favored by double-digits against the Irish.

Even without Tim Abromaitis, who is lost for the season, Notre Dame still has a quality nucleus. The Irish have three players scoring in double-figures in G Eric Atkins (15.4 PPG, 4.2 APG), G Jerian Grant (13.4 PPG, 4.9 APG) and G Scott Martin (11.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG). Look for the Irish to go with five-guard lineups at times and to push the tempo.

Gonzaga is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after two straight wins by 15 points or more. The Bulldogs are 11-24 ATS in their last 35 home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game. Bet Notre Dame Wednesday.

Rob Vinciletti

Richmond vs. William Mary
Play: Richmond -7½

Richmond is a solid 7-1 straight up and ats vs teams who score 65 or less points per game. In games where the posted total is 120 to 130 they are a solid 12-4 ats, including 4-1 on the road in this situation. They have won the last 5 times as a road favorite from -6.5 to -9 covering the last two times. William and Mary has failed to cover in 3 of 4 non conference games and are an anemic 1-6 on the season. They have lost 17 of the last 21 times as home dog in this range and fit the profile of a team that will struggle this season. Look for Richmond to emerge with a win and cover here tonight.

Dave Price

1 Unit William & Mary +8

This is a huge revenge spot for William & Mary, who was crushed 73-49 at Richmond last season. The Tribe will be happy to play this year's meeting at home, where they have won the last two in the series. In fact, the home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings. The Spiders are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5 points and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 7.0-12.5 points. Take the Tribe.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Nebraska -12.5

The Huskers have been a very good home team in recent years, and the Demon Deacons are about to find out just how good this evening. This is Wake's first true road game of the season, and it has had very little time to prepare for it. It will also be feeling the effects of playing its 4th game in 7 days. Nebraska, meanwhile, has had three full days to rest up and prepare for this contest. It hasn't been wise to back the Demon Deacons when catching 10 points or more. In fact, they are just 18-34 ATS in their last 52 games as an underdog of 10 or more points. They are 12-25 ATS in their last 37 road games as an underdog of 10 or more points, losing these contests by an average of 17.5 points. The Demon Deacons are also a lousy 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog of 7.0-12.5 points and 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Take Nebraska.