Free Picks: Service Plays for Wednesday, October 27,2010

Tom Freese

Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Denver Nuggets

Could this be the year that Denver gets to the NBA Finals. Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups are a dynamic duo. Forward J.R. Smith can light it up with anyone in the NBA. The Nuggets are 18-7-1 ATS when playing with 3 or more days of rest. George Karl is back as coach of the Nuggets. Utah has several players hurt. Head Coach Jerry Sloan begins his 20th year as coach of the Jazz. Utah is 2-7 their last 9 games as underdogs and they are 2-7 ATS their 9 games as road underdogs. Utah is 1-5-1 ATS their last 7 games in Denver.

Charlie Scott

Rangers vs. Giants
Play: Over 5.5

Pitching Pitching Pitching. However, when the oddsmaker makes a total this low, the only way to play is OVER. There's no guarantee that both pitchers will be on, in a big stage like the World Series nerves could set in and anything can happen. Plus Texas offense is loaded and could score enough to go Over by themselves. Play the percentages,

BIG AL

Texas Rangers @ Giants
PICK: Texas Rangers

Forget about the "beasts of the easts" (the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies) and make way for the "bests of the wests." The two defending American and National League Champions were each beaten by two teams which could best described as "upstarts" in the Texas Rangers and San Francisco Giants, neither of whom has won a World Series in their history. Neither victory was a fluke however and both the Rangers and Giants deserve to be here with superior pitching and timely hitting that has carried them, not only through the playoffs, but also throughout the regular season as well. We have to give the edge to the Rangers tonight, primarily on the strength of their starter, lefthander Cliff Lee. These two teams don't play each other very often, but Lee has a stellar record both against the Giants and at their home park where this series will begin. In three starts in his career against San Francisco, Lee is 3-0 with an incredible 1.13 ERA and 0.71 WHIP and two of those games were pitched at AT&T Park where he is 2-0 with the exact same ERA. One bad bit of news that came out of the Giants' huge Game 6 NLCS win over the Phillies was that lead-off hitter and sparkplug, outfielder Andres Torres injured himself running out a bunt in his last at bat and will probably see limited time in this game as a result. Take the Rangers.

Scott Spreitzer

New York @ Toronto
PICK: New York +2

The Big Apple didn't get their man when Lebron James took his game to South Beach. But they couldn't have asked for a better "consolation" when they signed Amare Stoudemire away from Phoenix. Once again paired with Coach Mike D'Antoni, I expect Stoudemire to turn the Knicks in the right direction. D'Antoni couldn't have been happier with the signing of the athletic, high scoring big man. Stoudemire averaged over 23 ppg and 9 rpg when he played under the coach in Phoenix. But it wasn't just about Stoudemire. D'Antoni also got Anthony Randolph and Raymond Felton, while dumping David Lee and Al Harrington. No disrespect to the two former Knicks, but D'Antoni finally has his type of players in New York. Randolph, out of LSU is listed as doubtful tonight, but I expect him to pay off and continue an upward trend with his scoring when he returns. Felton is a strong PG for this type of system and he will play alongside Toney Douglas and Landry Fields, who will both share time at the two spot. Douglas, center Timofey Mozgov, and Danilo Gallinari have all been upgraded and are expected to play in the opener. The favorite in this one, Toronto, is a mess as they start the new season. They lose over 35 ppg and over 15 rpg with the departure of Chris Bosh and Hedo Turkoglu. The team's best big man (Andrea Bargnani) is a perimeter player, and Bosh's replacesment (Ed Davis) is out for a few more weeks with a torn meniscus in his right knee. The team is in for a long season and the losing starts tonight. I'm taking the points with the Knicks on Wednesday.

Teddy Covers

Boston @ Cleveland
PICK: Over 182.5

Cavs new head coach Byron Scott has a definitive plan for how to beat the Celtics this evening with his new-look, undersized roster. “The only way you counter size is with speed. One of my messages to our guys is we do ourselves a disservice if we don't run after every miss, every turnover, every loose ball, every make. We want to see if we can get up and down the floor and put them in a running game for 48 minutes.”

The Celtics played an ultra-intense defensive contest last night that stayed 20 points below the closing total. No surprise that bettors have been taking the Under in this contest, respecting Boston’s defensive acumen. But there’s no reason to expect the Celtics defense to be anywhere near as good as it was last night on the second of back-2-backs. Tired legs exist, even at this early stage of the season, and they tend to show most in transition, and on the defensive end of the court.

Scott: “They're one of the better defensive teams in this league. We've got to be smart. We've got to do what we've been doing all preseason and training camp long -- run.” 2* Take the Over.

Jim Feist

Jazz vs. Nuggets
Take: Over 205

Utah had a perfect preseason under demanding coach Jerry Sloan, an 8-0 record while averaging almost 100 ppg. They have a physical young frontcourt with Paul Millsap being joined by Al Jefferson. There are plenty of young guns on this team and they face an even more uptempo team in Denver, one that averaged 109 ppg in preseason. The Nuggets play in the thin Denver mountain air and love to run at opponents at home, where they won all three preseason battles. Look for an uptempo game with little defense, play the Jazz/Nuggets Over the total.

Jimmy Moore

New Jersey @ San Jose
Pick: San Jose

The Devils are a mess right now with the signing of Kovalchuk totally screwing up their roster. They now have to go into San Jose with the Sharks coming off of a shutout loss. Also the Sharks have not yet won at home so you know they will be very fired up about getting a win at home.

Matt Fargo

Boston Celtics vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5

To no surprise, the public is already all over the Celtics as Boston took out Miami last night. That game was a big one for both sides as the anticipation leading up to it was sickening and now we can go with a great situation coming from it and that is the day two letdown. While Miami clearly had a lack of early season chemistry, the Celtics still played with a lot of energy, especially on the defensive side of the ball, so matching anything close to that tonight will be a challenge. Cleveland is picked by many to go from first to worst in the NBA Central and while that could happen, I don’t see that big of a dropoff. Sure the Cavaliers lost a ton of players and their head coach but they will be out to prove there is life after LeBron. With James out of the way, Cleveland players can now actually show they can play basketball instead of giving the ball to LeBron and letting him take over. There is to be a team basketball concept in Cleveland and believe it or not, that actually does work. The starting five does not have the same star power that it once had but that is not necessarily a bad thing. Cleveland is solid at all five positions and has a coach with a track record of overachieving. This team is still big and they can knock down three-pointers which will create space, something that would have been there in the past if James had distributed the ball more. On top of it, the defense will still be the strength and that helps with the matchup tonight. It is pretty well known that the Cavaliers lost 13 of 14 games that James was absent from since 2007 but this is a completely different situation as they knew for months they were not going to be banking on him. “We see what people are saying,” Daniel Gibson said. “You better believe every night we step on the floor we're looking to do something about it.” This is exactly the attitude Cleveland needs and while it is in question whether it will last all season, you can bet the opening game will be highly energized. Last season, Cleveland was favored between five and seven points against the Celtics on its home floor, so taking six as the average, we are seeing a 10-point swing going into this game. That is a huge swing and one that I think it simply too much based on this situation with Boston playing at home last night in the NBA opener. Don’t be surprised to see Paul Pierce see very limited minutes tonight after his back injury last night and it will be even worse today. 3* Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Ness

Boston @ Cleveland
PICK: Cleveland +4

I was "all over" the Celtics last night (part of my 3-0 NBA sweep on Opening Night), as I expected the veteran Celtics would be primed for a HUGE effort against "the Boys from South Beach." I don't know about you, but after my first look at "the greatest team in NBA history," I think the anticipated five or six titles expected of this group of "proven winners" may be over-reaching just a bit. Then again, that's just me. After all, I'm the guy that thinks Tim Tebow has as much of a chance at becoming an NFL quarterback as I do of getting a "return call" from Halle Berry (wait, my cell is ringing now). Back to the business at hand. To say it's been a rough off-season for the Cavs would be vastly understating the case. Popular coach Mike Brown was fired and GM Danny Ferry "opted" to leave the organization. Those moves were thought to be orchestrated by owner Dan Gilbert in an effort to re-sign LBJ. Gilbert was first turned down by Michigan State coach Tom Izzo but then hired former Nets and Hornets coach Byron Scott on July 2. Just six days later came "The Decision," with LBJ uttering that now infamous phrase, "I'm taking my talents to South Beach." That prompted Cavs owner Dan Gilbert to "lose his mind" (my words), lashing out in an open letter to Cavaliers fans, "guaranteeing that Cleveland will win a championship before the self-titled former King wins one." (his words). Cleveland has won the most games in the NBA the previous two regular seasons (127) but this year owns a roster headed for "nowhere fast." Fortunately for Cleveland fans, Gilbert doesn't coach the team. Expectations are far lower now and here's what Byron Scott has said. "I love the underdog theory. Being a guy who came in and was put in the same situation, I can relate to it. I know it’s a very motivating factor for a lot of players. As much as possible, I’m going to keep bringing it up. I don’t want them to forget what people are saying and writing about them. If that’s the thing to keep them motivated and playing at a high level, I’ll say it every single day." The cupboard is not completely bare, as Mo Williams and Antwan Jamison are former All Stars, every tem would LOVE to have Anderson Varejao plus expect third-year forward JJ Hickson to have a "breakout" season. This is a terrific spot for the Cavs. They catch Boston off its win over "Miami Vice" last night. How much would do you think a win over Boston (right after the Celtics beat LBJ and Co.) would mean to the Cleveland players, its coach, its owner and its fans? Let the celebrating begin. For one night, the Cavs will sit atop the NBA world. Take the points.

Craig Trapp

Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: New Orleans Hornets -3

These two teams split last year both winning their home games. West has had some huge games against MIL including 27 in the home win last year. Look for West to have great game as he has huge advantage over his defender Gooden. Paul is back after injury filled '09 and from what I hear he is better than ever. Look for Paul to have this NO team hitting on all cylinders. MIL was solid team in '09 but think a regression will happen early in this 2010 season.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Cleveland Cavaliers +4

This is a tough spot for a veteran Boston team coming off an exhausting defensive performance in a win against LeBron James and the Miami Heat last night. Cleveland will be out to prove that it can still be a force to be reckoned with without James, and it will especially go after the Celtics here after its former teammate couldn't get the job done last night. The Celtics are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 trips to Cleveland, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll take the points.

Rocketman

Houston @ Golden State
Play: Houston +3.5

Houston is 39-13 SU overall vs Golden State since 1996 including 22-5 SU at Golden State. Houston is 7-0 SU overall vs Golden State the past 3 years. I'm seeing where Yao Ming is going to rest tonight but keep in mind this is a team that had a winning record last year without Yao. Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Rockets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Rockets are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Underdog is 22-10 ATS in the last 32 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!

Sam Martin

Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Boston Celtics

The knee-jerk reaction might be to fade the Celtics as a small road favorite here just one day after dispatching the Big Three and the Miami Heat in the season opener last night. But we don't believe playing without rest will be a factor this early in the season, and the Cavs will need some time to adjust to life without LeBron James on the floor namely where will they get their points from Boston beat Cleveland in their season opener each of the last two years, and we think they'll come out on top again here tonight! 5* Play on Boston.

SPORTS WAGERS

San Francisco +1.13 over TEXAS

The Rangers will turn to Cliff Lee (aka Superman) for Game 1. Lee hasn't pitched since Game 3 of the ALCS, way back on October 18. Will he be rusty? Well, he faced a similar situation in last year's World Series, starting Game 1 on nine days rest. All he did in that game was go the distance, giving up one unearned run on six hits, striking out 10 and walking none. Thus far in the playoffs, he is 3-0 with a 0.58 ERA in 24 IP. He's generated 34 K and one walk and he’s been simply flawless. If not for Lee, Tim Lincecum would be the Superman in this matchup. He's almost matched Lee's mastery, with a 1.93 ERA. He'll be starting on a more normal five days rest, which bodes well for him. He's pitched his best on five days rest in his career, with a 2.74 ERA and .566 OPS, versus a 3.21 ERA and .655 OPS when starting after more or less than five days. So, we have two great pitchers and both have an outstanding shot at going very deep into this game. The Rangers bats are more dangerous but this isn’t Texas or the Bronx they’re playing at, this is a venue where runs are difficult to come by and in that respect we trust Bruce Bochy to out-manage Ron Washington. Washington will make some wrong moves with NL rules and he’s already done so before this game has even started. The most intriguing decision facing AL managers in the World Series is always whether to play their regular DH in the field or forego what is usually one of their best bats Washington has opted for going with Vlad Guerrero in RF. Really? Vlad is a giant 1-for-1 in his career against Lincecum, but has not fared well in the postseason, with a .283 OBA, no home runs, and only four RBI’s. More than that however is that Guerrero is a big defensive liability and he absolutely could cost the Rangers a crucial run or two with poor defense. Lincecum at home plus a price with NL rules can’t be considered a bad play. Play: San Francisco +1.13 (Risking 2 units).

Atlanta +1.23 over MEMPHIS

The key to early season NBA betting is finding undervalued squads who didn’t make major changes in the offseason. Last night’s results proved that betting the unknown isn’t smart handicapping, as Miami and Phoenix both looked completely out of sync while Boston and Portland, teams that have the same core and chemistry as last year won and covered easily. The Hawks return every starter from last season’s 50-win campaign and axed coach Mike Woodson, replacing him with assistant Larry Drew who is undoubtedly an upgrade over Woodson and his .419 career winning percentage. Atlanta plays a solid brand of basketball that relies heavily on guard Joe Johnson, a player who has averaged at least 20 points a game every season he’s played for the Hawks and a man who just signed a six-year, 119 million dollar contract. Johnson is complimented by Josh Smith and Al Horford, two of the most athletic players in the Eastern Conference and players who know how to protect the rim. Smith averaged two blocks a game last season and Horford scooped up 10 rebounds, allowing the Hawks to finish 9th in the league defense. We believe Memphis can contend for one of the last Western Conference playoff spots. Their starting five is solid and their home record last season was quite good, however, this wager isn’t about the Grizzlies; rather it’s about betting a known entity that on paper, one through nine, simply has more talent than the Grizzlies. Add the sweet price and it becomes an automatic early season play. Play: Atlanta +1.23 (Risking 2 units).

Atlanta +1.33 over N.Y. RANGERS

Classic situation for the chalk to come up lame. The Rangers have reeled off three in a row when everyone had written them off for dead. They not only won three in a row but they beat the then red-hot Bruins in Boston and followed that up with a win over the reeling Devils. Now the Rangers stock has soared and now is the time to go against them. Fact is, this is still a team with very little offensive power and a team that’s a huge risk laying juice. The Thrashers stock has sunk big time with three consecutive losses. However, they lost to some quality clubs (Buffalo, Tampa and Washington) and they’re not the inferior squad here. The Thrashers have played a very difficult schedule yet they still have wins in San Jose and Anaheim, not to mention a win to open the season against the Caps. Thus far, they’ve played the Bolts twice, the Caps twice, the Sabres, Sharks, Ducks and the Kings. Ouch. This is by far its easiest assignment of the year and after three straight losses you can be damn sure they’ll be ready to go tonight. Without question, the beatable Rangers are overpriced here. Play: Atlanta +1.33 (Risking 2 units).

NY Islanders +1.55 over MONTREAL

Have no idea which team is going to win here but how can you pass up on the Islanders @ +1.55? Montreal is playing ok hockey but c’mon now, this team should not be favored over anyone by this much. The Habs have won four of its last five games but they’ve played Ottawa twice, Phoenix and Buffalo and three of the four games were decided late and by one goal. The Habs are winning but they’re certainly not dominating play or even carrying the play to the opposition. This is not a 5-2 team. It’s not like the Islanders are a weak team either. They’ve won three of its last four and have been in every single game they’ve played. In fact, four of the Islanders eight games have gone to OT and three of its four losses came in OT. Its other loss was a 2-1 defeat in Washington. The bottom line is that the Islanders are just as good as the Canadiens and perhaps better and its chances of winning here are equal to the Habs chances. Definite overlay. Play: N.Y. Islanders +1.55 (Risking 2 units).

CAROLINA +1.21 over Washington

The Caps have one road win in three attempts and that lone victory came in Nashville is a game they were losing 2-0 going to the third period. Even in their wins at home the Caps are barely getting by. A close look reveals a team that beat the Islanders at home 2-1. They beat Ottawa at home in OT, 3-2. They dropped a home and home series against the Bruins and followed that up with yet another OT win at home against the Thrashers. It would appear that the loss they suffered at the hands of the Canadiens in last year’s first round is having a hangover effect. No longer are the Caps dominating play and every time they let in a softie, it’s like a collective “here we go again”. They simply do not look like the same team that has dominated play in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Canes will be the last team in the NHL to finally open at home. They absolutely have an edge in net with Cam Ward, as he’s playing as good as he’s ever played. Carolina is 4-3 after opening the year in Europe and then playing games in Ottawa, Vancouver, San Jose, Los Angeles and Phoenix. The joint will be absolutely rocking tonight and the Canes are well rested now after being idle since Saturday. Sure, there’s a chance they’ll be flat but that is more likely to occur when they host the Rangers on Friday. The Canes always play the Caps tough and even last year they beat them five times in eight tries, including three out of four in Raleigh. This season the Canes are improved while the Caps look more vulnerable than they’ve been in a long, long time. Play: Carolina +1.21 (Risking 2 units).