Stephen Nover,
Boston at CLEVELAND (+3')
For my Wednesday free selection I'm going with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Cavaliers open their post LeBron James era at home against Boston. The Cavaliers will be sky-high for this matchup. Full-throttle Cavaliers owner Dan Gilbert wants his team to show well in this first game without James.
Cleveland catches Boston in a vulnerable spot.
The Celtics are off their own huge victory, knocking off Miami and James at home last night. This was an emotional and highly satisfying victory for Boston. Many were touting the Heat as a super team, potentially one of the greatest of all-time.
Now the Celtics have to travel to face a down Cavaliers squad that no one is respecting. But will the Cavaliers really be that horrendous?
No, they aren't that bad. The Cavaliers are going to be playing with a chip on their shoulder all season. They have a couple of All-Stars in Antawn Jamison and Mo Williams. Byron Scott is a proven coach.
Cleveland is not in the class of the lower Eastern Conference teams such as the Nets, Wizards, 76ers and Raptors. The Cavaliers are more in the mid-level range battling for a bottom-end playoff spot.
The key in this matchup, though, is the situation. The Celtics are going to be vulnerable in back-to-back games when their star players and veterans play major minutes. That was the case on Tuesday night as Paul Pierce went 41 minutes, Rajon Rondo logged 41 minutes, Ray Allen played 39 minutes and Kevin Garnett was on the court for 35 minutes
1♦ CLEVELAND
Derek Mancini
NY Knicks at TORONTO (-1)
With the beginning of the NBA season finally here, we see oddsmakers and bettors still trying to feel eachother out. Tonight's Knicks/Raptors game is a perfect example, as it would seem ridiculous for the Raptors to be favored against Stoudemire's Knicks, right? WRONG!
First of all, its no secret the Raptors swept this series last season, as coach Triano's defensive-minded schemes had no problem matching up vs D'Antoni's offense first system. This is a fundemental problem for New York, which is a fun team to watch, but can be easily frustrated by a solid defensive group. Granted, the Raptors weren't exactly a top defense last year, but as players buy into the system, they will show marked improvement this year.
From a match up standpoint, everyone is asking how the Raptors replace Bosh and Turkoglu. Well, forget Turkoglu, because: A. he doesn't play any defense. And B. he was a disruption for most the season. It's addition by subtraction with Turkoglu. As far as Bosh is concerned, his departure makes room for Bargnani, who can be one of the more talented bigmen in league, at least offensively, given the oppurtunity. Bettors are also discounting the Raps backcourt, which has plenty of punch with DeRozan, Jack, Calderon and Barbosa.
Finally, I say this all the time, and I'll keep saying it: oddsmakers aren't stupid. They know bettors are going to be all over the Knicks in anticipation of Amare's debut (just like they were on the Heat last night - and my clients got a 10 Dime paid play winner on the Celtics). Don't be a sucker, look past all the hype and realize that the Knicks have a lot to prove before we can trust them on the road against a team that swept them last season. Lay it with Toronto over the NY Knicks Wednesday.
2♦ TORONTO
Joel Tyson,
Atlanta (+3) at MEMPHIS
No issue grabbing a few points with the Hawks this Wednesday night, as I believe Atlanta to be the better of the two teams on the court, and they have a history of dominating this Memphis team.
This will be new coach Larry Drew's season debut for the Hawks, and word is the new motio-based offense the Hawks have installed looks like it will pay dividends for a team that is fresh off a run to the conference semi-finals last season.
Atlanta took both season series meetings last year, and they have won 7 of the last 8 series meetings both straight up and against the spread.
Memphis is hoping to be an improved team this season, but they are also going to have to contend with the fact center Marc Gasol sprained his ankle over the weekend, and is listed as doubtful for the season opener.
All things considered, the proven product on the court tonight is Atlanta, and with the added incentive of a new coach's debut, I look for the Hawks to soar in this road opener.
Take any points available with the Hawks.
2♦ ATLANTA
Karl Garrett
Milwaukee at NEW ORLEANS
G-Man playing a total this Wednesday night in the NBA, as I have a feeling the Bucks and Hornets will do what they usually do when they get together, and that is go over the posted total.
Last year both season series meetings between the teams played over the total, and in 9 of the last 11 overall meetings between the teams have also played high.
No reason to look for anything different, especially with Milwaukee center Andrew Bogut now back from injury, and New Orleans guard Chris Paul dealing at full strength as well.
New Orleans closed the regular season last year with 6 of their final 9 in the over column, while Milwaukee went over the total at a 7-3-1 clip to close their last 11 regular season affairs.
The points add up in the Big Easy on Wednesday.
Take Milwaukee-New Orleans to go over the total.
4♦ OVER
Bobby Maxwell
Utah at DENVER (-4)
For my comp selection, this is a revenge game and I’m looking for the Nuggets to get their revenge when the Jazz visit the Pepsi Center in Denver on opening night. Lay the points with Denver as they’ll win this one by 10.
Utah knocked the Nuggets out of the playoffs last year in a thrilling six-game series, but there have been some changes to both rosters since that final game last year. The biggest loss was for the Jazz with the departure of Carlos Boozer. He is gone as is the Jazz’s Kyle Korver and Wesley Matthews. What it does is place even more burden on point guard Deron Williams.
Utah did sign Al Jefferson, Raja Bell and Earl Watson, but they will also begin without center Mehmet Okur who tore his Achilles tendon during that playoff series with the Nuggets last year.
Denver has the same pieces to the puzzle as last year, with the addition of Al Harrington, who averaged 17.7 points and 5.6 rebounds per game last season with the Knicks. The Nuggets will begin the season without the services of Chris Andersen and Kenyon Martin who are both recovering from knee surgery.
But back – at least for now – is Carmelo Anthony who is looking forward to getting some revenge on the Jazz. Also back is coach George Karl who missed that playoff series as he was battling with cancer.
These teams opened the regular season last year with the Nuggets taking a 114-105 win with Anthony pouring in 30 points. Including the playoff series, the home team won eight of the 10 meetings between these two last year (6-2-2 ATS). Denver covered as five-point home favorites in the season-opener last year and I expect them to do the same tonight.
The favorite is 28-11-3 ATS in the last 42 series clashes and the Nuggets finished 5-1 ATS at home as a favorite of up to 4 ½ points.
I’ll lay the chalk and play the Nuggets as they come out and deliver at home.
4♦ DENVER
Chuck O'Brien
Utah at DENVER (-4)
My first NBA free play of the season was a winner Tuesday as the Blazers used a big fourth quarter to roll over Phoenix, pushing me to 6-2 with my last eight complimentary selections. For Wednesday, take the Nuggets minus the points at home against Utah.
We’ll see how much longer Denver holds onto disgruntled All-Star forward Carmelo Anthony, but as long as he’s with the team, the Nuggets will remain a force in the Western Conference. The dude is THAT good, and he has a solid supporting cast around him with Chauncey Billups, Ty Lawson, Nene, J.R. Smith and – when healthy – Kenyon Martin.
Granted, Martin and fellow big man Chris Anderson won’t see action till after New Year’s. Additionally, another forward (Al Harrington) along with Smith, Nene and Lawson are dealing with injuries that have them labeled anywhere from probable to questionable tonight. That said, Utah is missing its own big men in center Mehmet Okur (injured out till late December) and power forward Carlos Boozer (free-agent signing with the Bulls). So the playing field is pretty much leveled in the injury/availability department.
You have to respect the home team’s success in this rivalry, as the host went 8-2 SU and 6-3-2 ATS last year, including a playoff series that went to Utah in six games. Only one of the 10 meetings was decided by fewer than seven points, with six of the 10 being double-digit blowouts. Also, the SU winner went 8-0-2 ATS last year; the favorite is 28-11-3 ATS in the last 42 series battles; the home team won and covered the final four playoff contests last year; and Utah is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven visits to the Pepsi Center.
2♦ DENVER
Michael Cannon
Portland at LA CLIPPERS (+3)
Take the points with the Clippers at home over the Trail Blazers.
Portland has all the numbers in this series, but the Clippers are a different looking team this year.
For starters, Blake Griffin will finally make his Clippers debut after missing all of his rookie season with a knee injury. His presence alone already gives the Clippers the advantage inside because Portland is still without Greg Oden, Jeff Pendergraph and Joel Przybilla.
The Clippers backcourt is healthy also, with Baron Davis and Eric Gordon.
Take the points with the Clippers as they get it done at home over the Trail Blazers.
2♦ LA CLIPPERS
Craig Davis
Texas at SAN FRANCISCO
Today's free play is on the Giants/Rangers UNDER the total. I don't care how good the Rangers bats were in the Yankees series, this is an entirely different pitching staff, and Tim Lincecum is still the two-time defending Cy Young Award winner in the National League. He may or may not be as good as Cliff Lee, but he's better than any pitcher on the Yankees staff right now and did a remarkable job so far in the post-season.
Cliff Lee, on the other hand, well, we know exactly what he's all about. We've seen him perform in the regular season, we've seen him perform in the post-season, and no matter how you slice it, he's one of the best in the game.
Lee is 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in eight lifetime post-season starts heading into tonight's matchup with Lincecum. He was 3-0 in the AL Playoffs, striking out an amazing 34 batters walking just one. Those are absolutely sickening numbers and only Lee seems to be able to do that.
No matter how you slice it, great pitching foils great hitting and these are two of the best in the game. I'll take the UNDER 5 1/2 as your free play of the day.
2♦ RANGERS-GIANTS UNDER
Black Widow
1* on Houston Rockets +3.5
The Houston Rockets are one of the deepest teams in the league, and that will be key tonight as they look to rebound from a 110-112 loss to the defending champion Los Angeles Lakers last night. Even in a losing effort, the Rockets showed they can play with anyone this season and we were very impressed with the way they played the Lakers. If not for Shannon Brown getting hot and hitting 4 consecutive 3-pointers, Houston likely would have pulled off the upset last night. The Golden State warriors went 26-56 last season and should not be favorites in their season-opener tonight. The Rockets are 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last 9 meetings with the Warriors. That's why this line makes no sense and it's clearly been set off the mark Wednesday as Houston likely wins this game outright. Take the Rockets and the points.
Wunderdog
Philadelphia 76ers +7½
It became very apparent last night that the Miami Heat's talented trio is going to take some time to define roles and get performance levels up to the level of talent they bring to the floor. That should mean some value on the other side early. Philadelphia has Andre Iguodala, Elton Brand and Evan Turner, who should become an immediate impact player, with a high ceiling. That should be enough to hang with the Heat, who is going to take some time to find their way and gel into a lethal combo. The Heat has been less than stellar in Philly where they are a meager 1-7 ATS in their last eight visits. I like Philadelphia in this one.
Jack Jones
New Orleans Hornets -2.5
Great value here with the New Orleans Hornets as just 2.5-point home favorites against the Milwaukee Bucks. I believe the betting public along with the odds makers are sleeping on New Orleans this season. That's because the Hornets went 37-45 last year and missed the playoffs after reaching the postseason the two years prior, falling one game short of the Western Conference Finals in 2008. But you have to remember that Chris Paul was limited to 45 games due to various injuries, including left knee surgery. He averaged 18.7 points and 10.7 assists when on the floor, though he wasn't healthy.
With a rejuvenated Paul and steady forward David West, who has averaged 20.2 points and 8.3 rebounds over the last 3 seasons, the Hornets will be back this year if they can stay healthy. That's because they added some nice pieces, including small forward Trevor Ariza, shooting guard Marco Belinelli and first-round pick Quincy Pondexter. The Milwaukee Bucks did nothing to improve their team this offseason. They snuck up on everyone last year, but that's not going to be the case this season. The Hornets have won 18 of their last 25 home meetings with the Bucks. Take New Orleans Wednesday.
Doug Upstone
Toronto Raptors +1-110
I look to possibly play home underdogs at less than three points and road underdogs also at three points or less. With travel no real issue to worry about given the season is fresh, any NBA home team should be a three-point favorite at home and if a road club is really that much better than opponent, they should be favored by more than three on the road. I look at all games the first two to 2 1/2 weeks of the season and over the years have record just under 60 percent. Last night Boston was a winner using this theory and expect Toronto to do the same tonight
Dave Price
1 Unit on Celtics/Cavs UNDER 183.5
The veteran Celtics will look to slow it down in the second game of a back-to-back to give themselves the best chance to win. Plus, Cleveland should struggle to score the basketball without LeBron James against one the premier defensive teams in the NBA. The Under is 8-1 in the Cavaliers' last 9 games as an underdog of 4.5 or fewer points and 6-0 in the Celtics' last 6 games as a favorite of 4.5 or less points. Bet the Under.