Friday 3/19/21 thread for handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NCAAB games
Matt Severance
WINTHROP @ VILLANOVA | 03/19 | 11:11 AM EDT
WINTHROP +6.5
ANALYSIS: South Region game between the No. 5 Wildcats and No. 12 Eagles. I believe this line is completely out of whack and will not be the least bit surprised if Winthrop, which is 23-1 and won the Big South regular season and conference tournament titles, takes this outright. Villanova just isn't the same since losing star point guard Collin Gillespie to a season-ending knee injury on March 3. The Cats dropped their final two without him and those were to teams (Providence, Georgetown) that aren't as good as Winthrop is.
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Matt Severance
SYRACUSE @ SAN DIEGO ST | 03/19 | 9:40 PM EDT
SAN DIEGO ST -2.5
ANALYSIS: Midwest Region game between No. 11 Orange and No. 6 Aztecs. Have you seen Syracuse play away from the Carrier Dome this season? Just awful. It's always better to face the Orange on the first game of a weekend instead of the second -- i.e. Round 1 instead of Round 2. Why? You get all week to prepare for that unusual zone defense instead of just 24 hours. San Diego State enters on a 14-game winning streak and is an excellent defensive club itself. The Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their past five NCAA Tournament games.
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Matt Severance
COLGATE @ ARKANSAS | 03/19 | 12:45 PM EDT
COLGATE +10
ANALYSIS: No. 14 Colgate vs. No. 3 Arkansas from South Region. This might be the most "off" spread of the first round as the Raiders are an excellent team and have an NCAA NET ranking of No. 9 nationally -- the Razorbacks are 14th. I'm not saying the Patriot League Tournament champions will knock off the Hogs, but it certainly won't surprise me and I can't imagine Colgate loses by double digits. This might be the most entertaining first-round matchup in terms of styles as both play super-fast and score a ton of points.
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Larry Hartstein
HARTFORD @ BAYLOR | 03/19 | 3:30 PM EDT
HARTFORD +26
ANALYSIS: Baylor knows it has a difficult matchup on deck, against the winner of North Carolina and Wisconsin. The Bears should be happy to win by 20 and preserve themselves a bit for that bigtime matchup. Hartford comes in on a 5-0 SU and ATS win streak, and the America East winner has covered its last three NCAA Tournament games. Grab the points.
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Larry Hartstein
ORAL ROBERTS @ OHIO ST. | 03/19 | 3:00 PM EDT
ORAL ROBERTS +16.5
ANALYSIS: Oral Roberts played a tough nonconference schedule so the Golden Eagles won't be awed by Ohio State. Max Abmas leads Oral Roberts with 24.2 points and 3.7 assists per game and shoots 43.3 percent from deep; there aren't many better guards in the nation. The Buckeyes are not elite defensively. Oral Roberts, which ranks 20th nationally in scoring, can put up enough points to cover.
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VA. TECH @ FLORIDA | 03/19 | 12:15 PM EDT
FLORIDA PK
ANALYSIS: No. 7 Gators vs. No. 10 Hokies in South Region first-round play. Maybe no Power 5 school had its season more disrupted by COVID than Tech, which has played only three games since Feb. 7. In addition, the team remains without a key rotation guy in Jalen Cone. The guard averaged 9.2 points off the bench (started four games), hitting 34.9% of his 3-point attempts. Florida, meanwhile, at least enters having played a mostly normal schedule if not playing great of late. KenPom ranks the Gators No. 37 nationally and the Hokies 50th. That's enough for me in a pick'em.
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Micah Roberts
VA. TECH @ FLORIDA | 03/19 | 12:15 PM EDT
VA. TECH PK
ANALYSIS: Florida has failed to cover its last four games, losing three, and barely beating Vanderbilt (+8.5). The Gators somehow beat West Virginia in Morgantown but came back in their next game to lose at home to South Carolina (+7.5). That is my immediate thought about the Gators: inconsistency. Virginia Tech had COVID-19 issues to deal with that slowed momentum from a great season, but I think another week of practice does the Hokies well in this spot. I bet Virginia Tech.
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Rob Veno NCAA Hoops
5% Cleveland State +20
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Micah Roberts
GEORGIA TECH @ LOYOLA-CHI. | 03/19 | 4:00 PM EDT
LOYOLA-CHI. -3
ANALYSIS: Loyola-Chicago went 16-9 ATS and 24-4 straight-up. Georgia Tech has won eight straight and covered eight of its last nine. Loyola has the No. 1 scoring defense in the nation at 55 ppg and allows only 40 percent shooting. The Ramblers also shoot 50 percent from the field from the field, good for fifth-best in the nation. Loyola is one of the most polished teams in the Tournament and it gets the cover.
LIBERTY @ OKLAHOMA ST. | 03/19 | 6:25 PM EDT
OKLAHOMA ST. -7.5
ANALYSIS: Oklahoma State just had its eight-game cover streak snapped on Saturday by Texas. The Cowboys have been underdogs in their last eight games, and the last time they laid points was in a 76-58 win against Iowa State on Feb. 16. They beat West Virginia twice and split with Baylor (2-0 ATS) in the last two weeks. Liberty has won its last 12 games, but I perceive value with the Cowboys. Oklahoma State to win by double digits.
MOREHEAD ST. @ W. VIRGINIA | 03/19 | 9:50 PM EDT
MOREHEAD ST. +12.5
ANALYSIS: I believe the Ohio Valley Conference was good enough to warrant two invites. Morehead State (19-9 ATS) was the last team standing, but Belmont and Eastern Kentucky also could've done some damage in the Tournament. The Eagles have won 19 of their last 20 games and each of the last seven, including two meetings with Belmont and one with EKU. Defense (40 percent shooting allowed) is what will get them another cover on Friday. This is a possible upset special. I took the points with Morehead State for now.
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Micah Roberts
NORTH TEXAS @ PURDUE | 03/19 | 7:25 PM EDT
PURDUE -7.5
ANALYSIS: North Texas lost its final three games of the season before catching fire -- or getting lucky -- in its final four games of the C-USA Tournament. It was an awful display of shooting by the Mean Green in their last three, but their opponents just shot worse like Louisiana Tech in the semifinals shooting 17-of-53 and Western Kentucky in the final shooting 17-of-50. Good defense, but Purdue won’t be pushed around inside. Purdue wins the game in the paint. Purdue gets the cover.
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Rocky Atkinson friday college
10* tennessee-7
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Matt Severance
NORTH TEXAS @ PURDUE | 03/19 | 7:25 PM EDT
PURDUE -7.5
ANALYSIS: No. 13 North Texas vs. No. 4 Purdue in South Region action. The Mean Green were moderately surprising winners of the Conference USA Tournament. They have a very good starting five but are incredibly thin otherwise now that Sixth Man Rubin Jones has been ruled out of this one. He missed the C-USA Tournament, too, but there's obviously a big step up in competition here. Purdue also has tons of size that North Texas can't match. The Boilers are 4-0 ATS in their past four as favorites.
LOUISIANA TECH @ OLE MISS | 03/19 | 9:00 PM EDT
LOUISIANA TECH +6.5
ANALYSIS: Why there are NIT games Friday opposite the Big Dance is beyond me, but this suddenly has value because Ole Miss -- which probably has no interest in the NIT regardless after being an NCAA Tournament snub -- will be without one key player for sure and perhaps its best one. Rebs forward KJ Buffen (8.4 ppg, 4.5 rpg) has opted out, while All-SEC guard Devontae Shuler is on personal leave -- he hasn't been 100 percent ruled out yet. Shuler leads Ole Miss in scoring (15.3 ppg) and assists (3.3 apg). Frankly, Louisiana Tech may have covered this number regardless but now definitely should (and may win outright).
GEORGIA TECH @ LOYOLA-CHI. | 03/19 | 4:00 PM EDT
LOYOLA-CHI. -5.5
ANALYSIS: No. 9 Georgia Tech vs. No. 8 Loyola (Chicago) from Midwest Region. I was going to bet the Ramblers most likely regardless but now wish I had gotten them as low as -2.5 at one point. The reason for the spike is that Georgia Tech star big man Moses Wright, the ACC Player of the Year, will miss it after testing positive for COVID. The senior averaged 17.4 points and 8.0 rebounds and had upped those numbers during Tech's eight-game winning streak on the way to the ACC Tournament title. He also would have been the primary defender on Loyola star, Missouri Valley Conference Player of the Year and third-team All-American center Cameron Krutwig.
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Larry Hartstein
LOUISIANA TECH @ OLE MISS | 03/19 | 9:00 PM EDT
LOUISIANA TECH +6.5
ANALYSIS: Ole Miss isn't excited to be in the NIT after its bubble burst. The Rebels face a tough defensive team in Louisiana Tech and shouldn't be laying so many points, given recent developments. Junior forward KJ Buffen just opted out of the NIT, and All-SEC point guard Devontae Shuler might miss the game as well due to a family situation. Grab the points.
VA. TECH @ FLORIDA | 03/19 | 12:15 PM EDT
VA. TECH PK
ANALYSIS: Outside of Tre Mann, the Gators have been slumping. They've covered just two of their last nine games. Virginia Tech is more balanced and should be able to hurt Florida on the boards. The Hokies beat Villanova and Virginia this season and should be higher than a No. 10 seed. Back Virginia Tech.
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Matt Severance
LIBERTY @ OKLAHOMA ST. | 03/19 | 6:25 PM EDT
LIBERTY +7.5
ANALYSIS: No. 13 Liberty vs. No. 4 Oklahoma State in Midwest Region. Hey, we get to see a future NBA No. 1 overall pick in the NCAA Tournament! Feels like that hasn't happened much lately. Of course, we speak of the Cowboys' Cade Cunningham. OSU is red hot, but the Pokes are likely to be incredibly frustrated by Liberty's pack-line defense that is modeled after Virginia's -- Coach Richie McKay used to be at UVA with Tony Bennett. The Flames won't be intimidated, either, as they played five Power 5 schools this year and won two (nearly a third vs. Big 12 school TCU). Liberty has covered its past four as a dog.
OREGON ST. @ TENNESSEE | 03/19 | 4:30 PM EDT
OREGON ST. +8.5
ANALYSIS: No. 12 Oregon State vs. No. 5 Tennessee from Midwest Region. While I give the surprise Pac-12 Tournament champion Beavers little shot of winning this game outright, I think they can keep it fairly close because the Vols are expected to be without senior forward John Fulkerson (9.5 ppg, 52.7 percent shooting, 5.5 rpg) due to facial injuries suffered in the SEC Tournament on a total cheap shot from a Florida player. Fulkerson is not UT's best player by any means but is an important glue/hustle guy and leader. Oregon State is 13-3 ATS in its past 16 as a dog.
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Stephen Oh
DREXEL @ ILLINOIS | 03/19 | 1:15 PM EDT
DREXEL +22.5
ANALYSIS: No. 16 Drexel vs. No. 1 Illinois from Midwest Region. The Illini could be a bit flat out of the gate off their highly-charged Big Ten Tournament title game win over Ohio State last Sunday. One thing the Dragons, CAA Tournament champions, do well is shoot free throws at nearly 78 percent -- Top 25 nationally. That can matter to cover a spread, and my model has Drexel covering that big number (quite comfortably) in 67 percent of simulations.
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AL McMordie
NCAA Basketball Selections for Friday, Mar. 19
1*Arkansas -8.5, 12:45 pm High Noon Hanging
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Micah Roberts
UTAH ST. @ TEXAS TECH | 03/19 | 1:45 PM EDT
UTAH ST. +4
ANALYSIS: Utah State won six straight games before losing to San Diego State in the Mountain West Conference championship game. An upgrade in defensive play has been the key, and the Aggies already were solid at that end of the court, allowing opponents to shoot only 39 percent from the field this season. Texas Tech has lost five of its last eight games, including its last two. I took the points with Utah State.
CLEV. ST. @ HOUSTON | 03/19 | 7:15 PM EDT
HOUSTON -20
ANALYSIS: Cleveland State has had a great season, but it sure was fortunate to not have faced Wright State in the Horizon Tournament. Wright State had beaten CSU, 85-49, in January. CSU also got blown out at Ohio, 101-46, when the Vikings started the season 0-3 against better competition. Houston (18-8 ATS) is on another class level, and it will show in this game. The Cougars averaged a 78-58 score and allow only 37.0 percent shooting, the best in the nation. Houston covers.
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Larry Hartstein
UTAH ST. @ TEXAS TECH | 03/19 | 1:45 PM EDT
TEXAS TECH -4
ANALYSIS: Chris Beard is 9-3 in the NCAA Tournament and has never lost in the first round. His Red Raiders played a much tougher schedule than Utah State, beating LSU and Texas twice. The Aggies are dominant at home, but they got blown out in neutral-site games versus VCU and San Diego State. Lay the points.
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Mid-American Sports - Raiderman
CBB
Colgate +8.5
Virginia Tech pk
Wisconsin +1.5
Oregon State +8.5
Loyola Chicago -5.5
Rutgers -1.5
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Kevin Rogers - Vegasinsider
CBB
San Diego State -3
Oregon State +8.5
Purdue -7.5
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Jeff Hochman
N.Y. RANGERS @ WASHINGTON | 03/19 | 7:00 PM EDT
WASHINGTON -140
ANALYSIS: The Capitals are 0-2 against the Rangers this season despite outshooting them in both games. They should be super focused while trying to win 10 of their past 11 games. Washington is scoring 3.7 goals per game, while allowing 2.3 per game during this hot streak. The Rangers scored seven goals in the second period of their 9-0 win against Philadelphia on Wednesday. Major fade bait. The Capitals 6-1 of late against New York in Washington, and I like them when playing with two days of rest.
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Larry Hartstein
OREGON ST. @ TENNESSEE | 03/19 | 4:30 PM EDT
OREGON ST. +8.5
ANALYSIS: The Beavers were 8.5-point underdogs in their last two games, and they won outright over Oregon and Colorado to take the Pac-12 Tournament. In fact, they've won outright as underdogs of at least five points five times in the past six games. Tennessee is an elite defensive team, but Oregon State has a balanced attack. The Vols also are likely to be without senior forward John Fulkerson. Grab the points.
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Kenny White
WISCONSIN @ N. CAROLINA | 03/19 | 7:10 PM EDT
WISCONSIN +1.5
ANALYSIS: At the beginning of the year, I had Wisconsin as the No. 5 team in college basketball. The Badgers have yet to live up to that billing. They still have everything it takes to make the Final Four. Wisconsin has six seniors among its top eight players. The Badgers are 12th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They are the 28th best free throw shooting team and are second in turnover percentage. Wisconsin has played the ninth most difficult schedule in the nation. UNC is very young, as seven of its top players are freshmen.
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Joe Williams- Vegasinsider
CBB
Virginia Tech pk
Illinois -22.5
Utah State +4
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Jonathan Willis Vegasinsider
CBB
Arkansas -8.5
Arkansas/Colgate Over 161.5
Drexel/Illinois Over 143
Ohio State -15.5
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David Schwab - Vegasinsider
College Basketball month of March hitting 66% Winners
CBB
Oregon State +8.5 (First Round BIG PLAY)
Baylor -25.5
Baylor/Hartford Over 140
Loyola-Chicago -5.5
Loyola-Chicago/Georgia Tech Under 126
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Vegasinsider College Basketball Totals Club
CBB
Virginia Tech/Florida Over 135
Utah State/Texas Tech Over 131
Oral Roberts/Ohio State Over 156.5
Tennessee/Oregon State Over 131
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Michael Crosson - Vegasinsider
Triple Pak of Underdogs
CBB
Utah State +4.5 (First Round BIG Play)
Morehead State +13.5
Syracuse +3.5
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Insider Sports Report
Premier Picks® For 03/19/21
4* North Carolina -1.5 over Wisconsin (NCAAB)
Range: PK to -4
3* Oregon St. +8.5 over Tennessee (NCAAB)
Range: +10 to +6
3* Mississippi -4.5 over Louisiana Tech (NCAAB)
Range: -2.5 to -6.5
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Kenny White
COLGATE @ ARKANSAS | 03/19 | 12:45 PM EDT
OVER 161.5
ANALYSIS: Both teams play at an extremely high pace. Arkansas plays at the 17th fastest pace in the nation. Colgate plays at the 25th fastest pace. The Raiders' offense is very efficient, and they are one of the best three-point shooting teams at 40 percent from the field. Colgate's offense ranks 44th in offensive efficiency and a mediocre 139th in defensive efficiency. Arkansas is 8-3 to the over away from home. Colgate is 5-2 to the over in its last seven games.
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XS Sports Picks Friday
Chicago +7.5 (9pm)
Orlando Over 224.5 (8pm)
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XS Sports Picks Friday
$2000 Montreal Under 6 -110 (7pm)
$3000 Washington Over 6.5 +102 (7pm)
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XS Sports Picks Friday
Utah State +4 (1:45pm)
Baylor Over 140 (3:30pm)
Loyola (IL) -5.5 (4pm)
Oregon State +8.5 (4:30pm)
Liberty +7 (6:25pm)
Rutgers -2 (9:20pm)
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Matt Severance
ORAL ROBERTS @ OHIO ST. | 03/19 | 3:00 PM EDT
ORAL ROBERTS +16
ANALYSIS: No. 15 Oral Roberts vs. No. 2 Ohio State in South Region action. Can a team have a trap game in the NCAA Tournament? I think this sets up as a bit of one for the Buckeyes off that incredible Big Ten title game loss to Illinois. It might be easy for OSU to overlook Summit League Tournament champion Oral Roberts. The Eagles have a guard who can get hot and upset anyone in Max Abrams, who leads the nation in scoring at 24.2 ppg. Also, the Buckeyes remain without important contributor Kyle Young (8.6 ppg, 5.5 rpg) in concussion protocols.
N.Y. RANGERS @ WASHINGTON | 03/19 | 7:00 PM EDT
WASHINGTON -135
ANALYSIS: Can't say I understand why Washington isn't a bigger home favorite here. The Caps lead the East Division with 42 points and are on a six-game winning streak, while the Rangers have only 28 points and remain without No. 1 netminder Igor Shesterkin (groin), although he could play Saturday when these clubs meet again. In their past 16 games, the Capitals have just two regulation losses and and rank among the league's top five in goals for, goals against and shots against during that span. The Rangers are the only team the Caps haven't defeated yet in 2021, but that's simply added motivation. Washington has won six of the past seven at home in this series.
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Kyle Akins
BROOKLYN @ ORLANDO | 03/19 | 8:00 PM EDT
BROOKLYN -10.5
ANALYSIS: When these teams played three weeks ago it was a brutal mismatch with Brooklyn winning by 37. While it would be silly to predict that kind of margin in any game, Orlando’s limited scoring options are just not built to compete with a team like Brooklyn. Brooklyn was also a road favorite Wednesday, defeating Indiana, 124-115. Brooklyn took control of that game by getting to the foul line, going 31-of-40. The Nets are 7-0 ATS coming off a win in which they scored at least 25 percent of their points on free throws.
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Balfe
Ark -8.5/colgate
Over 162
Ohio St -15.5/ORU
OVER 157
Wisc +1.5/nc
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Gus Augustine
100 Dime
+ MAX WAGER +
Loyola Chicago
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Pointwise phone selections
3 Oregon State
4 Loyola Chicago
5 Baylor
5 Colgate
5 Oral Roberts
6 Utah State
6 Florida
6 Drexel
Remember the lower the number the bigger the play
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Root
gold Standard- San Diego st
Pinnacle- Purdue
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Chris Jordan
600♦ Winner
Wisconsin
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Scott Delaney
60 Dime
Winner # 21 of 30
Opening Round Total of the Year
under Syracuse
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World's Worst Picker
Play the opposite.
Va. Tech
Colgate
Texas Tech
NC
SD ST
CLEMSON
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Brandon Lang
BIG TOURNEY
MONEY MAKER #2
75 DIME
MONEY MAKER
Oregon st
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Trace Adams
Raise The Bar
1500♦
Winner # 20 of 31
Opening Round Massacre
Illinois
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Al Demarco
Top-Rated 15-Dime Release
Oregon st
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Mitchell Newman
75 DIME
Winner # 25 of 36
(- and 20 of 28 -)
Daytime Bankroll Builder
Texas Tech
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Steve Budin
BROOKLYN COLLEGE BOYS
50 DIME
First-Round Line Error Lock
oral Robert's
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Bob Valentino
75 Dime
College Winner # 9 of 10
Opening Round Lock Part 2
rutgers
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Chuck O'Brien
15th Ever
100 DIME
College Hoops Release of my Career
San Diego st
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Tommy Brunson
75 DIME
Winner # 10 of 15
Opening Round Lock
Georgia Tech
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Kirby Maxwell
40 Dime
Colgate
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Sean Michaels
25 Dime Release
baylor
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Matt Severance
CALGARY @ TORONTO | 03/19 | 7:00 PM EDT
TORONTO -160
ANALYSIS: Calgary is playing much better under new coach Darryl Sutter, but those were all at home. The Flames are 2-6 in their past eight as road dogs. Toronto has lost five of six but hasn't played since Sunday and thus should be completely recharged. In addition, the Leafs will welcome back forward Wayne Simmonds. He hasn't suited up since Feb. 6 against the Canucks when he was struck by an Alex Edler clearing attempt above his glove. Simmonds had five goals in 12 games. Toronto will be really stacked at forward as it also will be the Leafs debut of Alex Galchenyuk. The No. 3 overall pick in the 2012 draft was acquired last month from Carolina but had been getting into game shape in the AHL since then.
Stephen Nover
Oklahoma st
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Aaa
Beat down
Texas tech
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Jesse Schule
Clemson
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Kyle Hunter
4 Houston
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Powers
Shocker
Utah st
9 smash
West virginia
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Bryan Leonard
Drexel
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Tim Michael
Rutgers ml
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Jim Feist
Dog of month
Winthrop
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Big al
Dog shocker
Utah st
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Teddy Davis
Liberty
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Scott Spreitzer
Purdue -7 (3U)
Arkansas -8.5 (6U)
Capitals -140 (3U)
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H&H Sports - Update #1
NCAA Tournament (4-2 overall)
NIT Tournament (4-0 overall)
CBB
Triple Dime - Arkansas -8 (-119)
Double Dime - Texas Tech -4
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Root
added
wis
Utah st
liberty
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Bondi
4* ARK -8.5
4* UNC -1.5
3* LIBERTY +7.5
3* SD ST -3.5
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digbets - breakfast special (9:15pm pst) 1 carat
cbb - vt -1
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