Monday 3/29/21 free thread for handicapping and expert predictions for NBA, MLB & NCAAB games.
Matt Blunt - Vegasinsider
Monday NHL - Regular Plays
Los Angeles Kings +1.5 goals (-135)
Los Angeles Kings +200
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Vegasinsider College Basketball Totals Club
CBB
Baylor/Arkansas Over 148 (Best Bet)
Oregon State/Houston Over 129
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Ralph Michaels / Cal Sports
4% Houston/Oregon State 1H Total under 60
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bettingmartingale
WORLD: Friendly International
India - UAE
UAE -1.5 @ 2.00 / 1 units
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XS Sports Picks
Indiana -4.5 (7pm)
New York Under 207.5 (8pm)
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XS Sports Picks
$5000 Pittsburgh -105 (7pm)
$2000 Edmonton +140 (7pm)
$2000 Winnipeg +100 (10pm)
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Gus Augustine
Regional Final
Game of the Year
Arkansas +7.5
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Insider Sports Report
Premier Picks® For 03/29/21
4* Oregon St. +8 over Houston (NCAAB)
Range: +9.5 to +5.5
3* Arkansas/Baylor UNDER 148.5 (NCAAB)
Range: 150.5 to 146.5
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Matt Severance
ARKANSAS @ BAYLOR | 03/29 | 9:57 PM EDT
BAYLOR -7.5
ANALYSIS: No. 3 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Baylor from South Region. In my overall Monday Elite Eight preview for SportsLine, I picked the Bears at -7 and I'm not going to change now -- although if this got to 8.5, I would back Arkansas. And it might. My primary concern with the Hogs is that they have not been shooting it well from deep in the Big Dance and have been rather lucky (sometimes it's better to be lucky than good) in winning their past two games. Other than one half vs. Villanova, Baylor has looked dominant in this tournament.
OREGON ST. @ HOUSTON | 03/29 | 7:15 PM EDT
OREGON ST. +8
ANALYSIS: No. 12 Oregon State vs. No. 2 Houston in Midwest Region. The first game of the Elite Eight and if you aren't backing the Beavers at this point, you just aren't paying attention. OSU is 13-1 ATS in its past 14 games and has won its past six straight up dating to the Pac-12 Tournament all as an underdog of at least 5.5 points. I don't expect the Beavs to win here -- then again, I didn't in any other round, either, but at least won on them ATS vs. Loyola (Chicago) -- but do think it will be a close game. Houston has had a fairly easy road thus far and should have lost in Round 2 to Rutgers.
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Mike McClure
INDIANA @ WASHINGTON | 03/29 | 7:00 PM EDT
INDIANA -4.5
ANALYSIS: Typically I would look to avoid the road chalk here, but the Wizards traded some of their bench depth, Davis Bertans is still out, and now Bradley Beal is questionable to play. The Pacers are healthy enough that they should be able to create matchup problems for the Wizards, especially at their pace of play. I make the Pacers -5.9 in my simulations with Bradley Beal in, and that number balloons up to -8.3 if he's unable to play.
ARKANSAS @ BAYLOR | 03/29 | 9:57 PM EDT
BAYLOR -7.5
ANALYSIS: I would jump on this number as quickly as you can because I think it will close at -8 or -8.5 for Baylor. My simulations make the Bears -9.3 in this tournament format. Arkansas tries to play at a very quick pace, but they're outside of the top 50 in terms of offensive efficiency, and they've relied on their defense to barely get them to this point in the tournament. Baylor is the second best offensive, and a top 12 defense in my model ratings. The guard play will be the difference for the Bears who will try to make Arkansas beat them in half-court sets. Lay it.
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John Morrison Tony Chau ChampNBA System
Now, let's go onward to the today's official Champ NBA system bet(s):
Milwaukee Bucks {A** bet -
Plus: Remember that there is an official {B** bet the Chicago Bulls today as well.
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Mike Barner
NEW ORLEANS @ BOSTON | 03/29 | 7:30 PM EDT
BOSTON -3.5
ANALYSIS: The last time these teams met, the Pelicans pulled off a five-point win in overtime. However, that game was played in New Orleans, which is noteworthy since the Celtics are an abysmal 10-16 on the road. However, they are 13-7 at home, including 12-8 ATS. Add in having a healthy Marcus Smart for this rematch and I like the Celtics to cover.
MILWAUKEE @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 03/29 | 10:00 PM EDT
L.A. CLIPPERS -2.5
ANALYSIS: This is the first game of a back-to-back set for the Clippers, which should always be a little concerning given that Kawhi Leonard often misses at least one game in these situations. However, they are scheduled to face the rebuilding Magic on Tuesday, so that would likely be the game in which they rest players. With the likelihood that Leonard and Paul George play, combined with the Bucks posting a 6-13-1 record ATS on the road, look for the Clippers to cover this reasonable number.
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IC
Winnipeg Jets (4U)
Baylor -7.5 (4U)
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Scott Spreitzer
Arkansas +8 (3U)
Buffalo Sabres +170 (4U)
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BET THE PROP:
Reggie Jackson (LAC) U19.5 PRA, -113 DK, -125 B365/Pinnacle
U19, -112 PB is ok
Jackson has been starting for the short-handed Clippers, but in his last 5 he is averaging 16.1 PRA while only hitting this number once.
That one over came in a game against the Spurs where Kawhi sat. Jackson had 36 PRA in that game (37 minutes), but when Kawhi returned the following game, Jackson was reduced to 28 minutes and 16 PRA.
Kawhi is expected to play tonight, so if we take out that one explosion game, which isn't very relevant here, Jackson's averaging 12.8 PRA on 21.5 Minutes
Tough matchup too, with the Bucks forcing opposing PGs under at a 64% rate.
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ASA
NCAA Tourney Situational Slam
Houston -7.5
CBB THE TOTAL OF THE YEAR!
10* Arkansas vs Baylor Under 148.5
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Al McMordie
NCAAB
3 Arkansas +8
NBA
1 Grizzlies -5
NHL
1 Islanders -105
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Wayne Root
Reserve- Baylor
Gold Standard- Houston
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Micah Roberts
Baylor -7.5
NASCAR
Top-5 Finish Predictions
1) #3 Austin Dillon (16/1)
2) #5 Kyle Larson (2/1)
3) #14 Chase Briscoe (14/1)
4) #22 Joey Logano (30/1)
5) #20 Christopher Bell (7/1)
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VSI (NCAAB):
5U- Under 148.5 (Arkansas/Baylor)
NBA
4U- LA Clippers -2.5
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Spreitzer
Pacers -5 (4U)
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Matt Severance
PHILADELPHIA @ BUFFALO | 03/29 | 7:00 PM EDT
BUFFALO +1.5
ANALYSIS: Buffalo is comically bad on a 17-game losing streak, but obviously the Sabres have to end that at some point and it most likely will come at home. They also got No. 1 goaltender Lucas Ullmark back Saturday from a long injury absence and nearly won in Boston. The Flyers aren't all that great with just three wins in their past 10. They go with Brian Elliott in net, and he has been up-and-down all year -- and has a 3.35 GAA on the road. I'm not gutsy enough to call a Buffalo straight-up win, but getting -145 on the puckline is solid value. The Sabres will go all out to avoid tying the longest skid in league history, which is 18 by the 2003-04 Penguins.
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Master Sports
NBA
3* #559 Indiana -5
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Michael Crosson
Vegasinsider NBA
New Orleans Pelicans vs Boston Celtics
TV: NBA TV - Time 7:40pm
Best Bet - Boston Celtics -138 (Moneyline)
NBA Player Prop Best Bet; Zion Williamson Over 27.5 points (-116)
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Jonathan Willis
Vegasinsider NBA
Milwaukee Bucks vs Los Angeles Clippers
TV: NBA TV - Time 10:10pm
Best Bet - Milwaukee Bucks +2.5
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Vince Akins (Spotsbook Breakers)
NBA Big Plays 15-2 last 17..
NBA
Boston Celtics -135 (Moneyline) - (BIG PLAY)
Sacramento Kings +3
Sacramento Kings/San Antonio Spurs Over 229
Dallas Mavericks/OKC Thunder Under 221
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Matt Severance
LOS ANGELES @ VEGAS | 03/29 | 10:00 PM EDT
VEGAS -215
ANALYSIS: Vegas is 13-2-1 at home this season and won both in Sin City against the Kings last month. It looks to be Jonathan Quick in net for Los Angeles, and he's 3-4-0 with a 3.01 GAA on the road and 0-2-0 with a 6.05 GAA against the Golden Knights overall this season. Mark Stone is red-hot for Vegas with 22 points (8G, 14A) in his last 13 games. Robin Lehner gets the call in net for the Knights, and he's 2-0-0 with a 2.50 GAA this year vs. L.A.
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