Free Premium Service Plays For Thursday 3/18/21

Matt Severance

11:05 AM
UCLA @ MICHIGAN ST. | 03/18 | 9:57 PM EDT
UCLA +1.5
ANALYSIS: This is certainly the most "marquee" First Four matchup in NCAA Tournament history. Most were shocked that Sparty ended up in it with quality wins over two NCAA Tournament No. 1 seeds (Illinois and Michigan) and another against a No. 2 (Ohio State). UCLA closed the season on a four-game skid but should have won the latter two. I'm a Sparty fan and well aware that Tom Izzo is Mr. March, but this is one of his least-talented teams in years and MSU doesn't have any great wins outside of East Lansing.
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Micah Roberts

DRAKE @ WICHITA ST. | 03/18 | 6:27 PM EDT
DRAKE +1
ANALYSIS: I was leaning Drake from the moment I saw the matchup and then I heard a rumor that leading scorer Tank Hemphill might be back. He had foot surgery on Feb. 11, so he’s probably not going to play. But maybe he’s an inspiration boost by just being in uniform. Drake is a polished squad even without Hemphill, shooting 49.8% from selective text-book shots. Disciplined. The Bulldogs went 20-6-1 ATS. An 11 seed, right. It’s an upperclassmen-led squad, they have the moment. Drake is the better team, I bet the Bulldogs.
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DWAYNE BRYANT

Game: (717) UCLA at (718) Michigan State
Date/Time: Mar 18 2021 9:57 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Under 136.0 (-110)

My college hoops totals system comprises relevant statistical data from KenPom.com, history involving similar games (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data. A play is made when enough of these factors align. The play's size is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Trends & Angles Supporting This Play:

• Michigan State is 13-5 (72%) UNDER against teams with a winning record this season.
• Michigan State is 11-3 (79%) UNDER this season against teams that are making at least 45% of their shots on the season.
• The UNDER is 20-8 (71%) in games UCLA's Mick Cronin has coached in his career as a neutral court underdog or pick.
• UCLA is 18-9 UNDER (67%) after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons
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Dave Cokin

4% Appalachian State -3
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Matt Severance

DRAKE @ WICHITA ST. | 03/18 | 6:27 PM EDT
DRAKE +1
ANALYSIS: I'll agree with Larry Hartstein and Micah Roberts now that Jon Rothstein of CBS Sports is reporting that Drake star ShanQuan Hemphill (foot) "is on track to play" in the First Four. He led the team in scoring (14.1 ppg) and rebounding (6.3 rpg) this season. Drake lost four times all year and Hemphill missed three of those.
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Stephen Oh

APP. ST. @ NORFOLK ST. | 03/18 | 8:40 PM EDT
NORFOLK ST. +3
ANALYSIS: The other all-16 matchup in Thursday's First Four, with the winner facing No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga in the West Region. While Norfolk State winning the MEAC Tournament was not an upset, App State doing so in the Sun Belt was as the Mountaineers were just 7-8 in regular-season league play. My model believes oddsmakers are a bit off here as it forecasts Norfolk State to win outright in 55 percent of simulations and cover the spread in 65 percent.

TEXAS SO. @ MT ST MARY'S | 03/18 | 5:10 PM EDT
MT ST MARY'S PK
ANALYSIS: This is the first game of the First Four and the winner between the No. 16 seeds gets a date with East Region No. 1 Michigan. Neither Texas Southern nor Mount St. Mary's won its conference's regular-season title but took the tourney title in upsets. My model has the Mountaineers winning on this pick'em in 58 percent of simulations.
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Joe Williams

Vegasinsider College Basketball
Best Bet - Norfolk State +3

Play #2
Vegasinsider College Basketball
Best Bet - Texas Southern pk
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Tim Wilkinson

Vegasinsider College Basketball
Best Bet- Wichita State +1

Vegasinsider College Basketball
Best Bet- Michigan State -2
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Vegasinsider College Basketball
Totals Club

CBB
Norfolk State/Appalachian State Over 133.5
Drake/Wichita State Over 140
Mount St Mary's/Texas Southern Over 133
UCLA/Michigan State Over 135.5
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Larry Hartstein

MILWAUKEE @ PHILADELPHIA | 03/17 | 7:00 PM EDT
MILWAUKEE -5.5
ANALYSIS: The 76ers have been winning without Joel Embiid, but I think his absence will catch up to them tonight. Philly had a tough battle with the Knicks last night, while Milwaukee was resting. The Bucks have won four straight and nine of 10. Look for the 76ers to fall to 1-6 ATS in their last seven games on zero rest.
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Dr. Bob
Thursday, March 18

Opinion – (713) Drake (-1) over Wichita State at -1.5 or better (Thursday)

My ratings favor Drake by 2.5 points with their shorter rotation, which includes Hemphill coming back (Penn is still out though, but I’ve already adjusted for that).
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Pickswise Sports

College Basketball - 3* Best Bet Michigan State -135 (Moneyline)

Rest of Card
2* Mount St Mary's/Texas Southern Under 133.5
2* Drake -123 (Moneyline)
1* Drake/Wichita State Over 140.5
1* Norfolk State +3.5
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Big Al

3* - Boise St
1* - Norfolk St
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Matt Blunt
Vegasinsider Golf Handicapper

The Honda Classic
Date - Thursday 3/18 - Sunday 3/21
Venue - PGA National (Champion Course)
Location - Palm Beach Gardens, Florida
Defending Champ - Sungjae Im
TV- Golf Channel & NBC

Honda Classic Contenders
Sungai Im +1300
Adam Scott +2500
Russell Henley +3000
Taylor Gooch +3500

Mid-Range Value - JT Poston +7000
Long Shot Pick - Adam Hadwin +9250

Best Bet: 72 Hole Match-up
Adam Scott -135 over Lee Westwood +105

Prop Wager:
Winner to play in final 1st tee grouping in round 4 (NO +200) Best Bet
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RAMNBA info

Washington Wizards - Utah Jazz

Utah Jazz -10
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OSKEIM SPORTS
Game: (717) UCLA at (718) Michigan State
Date/Time: Mar 18 2021 9:57 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: UCLA +2.5 (-110)

My math model favors UCLA by 1.15 points in this game and the Bruins are in their preferred role as underdogs where they are a 70% ATS winning proposition. Michigan State continues to be grossly overvalued by the betting market as the Spartans are a money-burning 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games overall, 2-10 ATS in their last twelve games as favorites, and 1-6 ATS in their previous seven neutral site affairs. Let's also note that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series.
The Spartans are 3-9 SU and ATS away from home this season where they are averaging just 63.5 points per game on 38.5% shooting from the field and 28.3% from beyond the arc. Michigan State had the second-worst offense in the Big Ten Conference this season. In contrast, head coach Mike Cronin's squad is loaded with talented shooters, beginning with Jaime Jaquez, Jules Bernard, and David Singleton. Jaquez is averaging 11.8 points per game (49.1% FG, 38.9% 3-PT), Bernard is averaging 10.0 points per game (39.4% 3-PT) and Singleton is making 47.8% of his three-point attempts in 2020-21.
Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang leads the team in scoring with 14.2 points per game. The Bruins led the Pac-12 in three-point field goal percentage (39%) and their deliberate pace is ideal for pulling the upset. Michigan State's No. 11 seed is the lowest in school history and the Spartans have never won an NCAA tournament game as a double-digit underdog (0-3 straight-up). Grab the points with UCLA and invest with confidence.
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Insider Sports Report

Premier Picks® For 03/18/21

4* Drake -1.5 over Wichita St. (NCAAB)
Range: +.5 to -4

3* Texas Southern -1 over Mount St. Mary's (NCAAB)
Range: +1.5 to -3

3* New Orleans +1 over Portland (NBA)
Range: +3 to -1
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Kenny White

WICHITA ST. +2

ANALYSIS: ShanQuan "Tank" Hemphill returns for Drake after he missed the last nine games, and he could be a step slow in his first game back. The Bulldogs are still without injured point guard Roman Penn, which is a five-point drop-off. Drake did beat Loyola (Chicago) in overtime by one point at home. The Bulldogs' other best win was over Missouri State, the 88th best team in the country. Wichita State beat Houston at home, beat Mississippi on the road and only lost by seven at Houston. Even with Hemphill back, my model has Wichita State by 4.5.
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Micah Roberts

DRAKE @ WICHITA ST. | 03/18 | 8:53 AM EDT
DRAKE +1

ANALYSIS: I was leaning Drake from the moment I saw the matchup and then I heard a rumor that leading scorer Tank Hemphill might be back. He had foot surgery on Feb. 11, so he’s probably not going to play. But maybe he’s an inspiration boost by just being in uniform. Drake is a polished squad even without Hemphill, shooting 49.8% from selective text-book shots. Disciplined. The Bulldogs went 20-6-1 ATS. An 11 seed, right. It’s an upperclassmen-led squad, they have the moment. Drake is the better team, I bet the Bulldogs.
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Larry Hartstein

DRAKE @ WICHITA ST. | 03/18 | 8:53 AM EDT
DRAKE -2
ANALYSIS: Drake played its final seven games without leading scorer ShanQuan Hemphill (14.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg) due to a foot injury. He's expected back for the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs still went 5-2 without him. Wichita State put together a remarkable season but was nothing close to dominant; the Shockers beat South Florida by one, UFC by one, Temple by three, Tulsa by four and so on. They got knocked out of the AAC Tournament by Cincinnati. Back the Bulldogs to improve to 21-6 ATS.

TEXAS SO. @ MT ST MARY'S | 03/18 | 9:06 AM EDT
MT ST MARY'S PK

ANALYSIS: Wish I had jumped on this sooner, but I'll still back the Mountaineers at pick-'em. Mt. St. Mary's plays the second-slowest pace in the nation and will slow down the Tigers, who rank 26th in pace and led the SWAC in scoring at 78.5 points. The Mountaineers have the size to contain Michael Weathers, and they have a 5-8 point guard in Damian Chong Qui who will control tempo. In Mt. St. Mary's NEC championship game upset of Bryant, Chong Qui had 21 points, eight rebounds and five assists.
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Steven Oh

TEXAS SO. @ MT ST MARY'S | 03/18 | 9:07 AM EDT
MT ST MARY'S PK

ANALYSIS: This is the first game of the First Four and the winner between the No. 16 seeds gets a date with East Region No. 1 Michigan. Neither Texas Southern nor Mount St. Mary's won its conference's regular-season title but took the tourney title in upsets. My model has the Mountaineers winning on this pick'em in 58 percent of simulations.
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Matt Severance

PHILADELPHIA @ N.Y. ISLANDERS | 03/18 | 7:00 PM EDT
N.Y. ISLANDERS -140
ANALYSIS: Pretty low price on the very good Islanders at home considering the Flyers are on the second of a back-to-back and were obliterated 9-0 at the Rangers on Wednesday -- although at least Philly didn't have to travel. Both teams figure to be a bit ornery; the Flyers because of Wednesday and the Isles for their nine-game winning streak and 12-game points streak ending in fairly lopsided fashion Tuesday at Washington. The Isles still remain the only team in the NHL to have not suffered a regulation loss on home ice (12-0-2), and they will welcome some fans for the first time at the Nassau Coliseum. Philly is 0-7 in its past seven as a dog.
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Kenny White

UCLA @ MICHIGAN ST. | 03/18 | 9:57 PM EDT
MICHIGAN ST. -2
ANALYSIS: Michigan State is the worst team ATS in the NCAA Tournament at 9-18. However, the Spartans are 5-3 ATS in their last eight games. Michigan State has played the eighth most difficult schedule in the nation. The Spartans beat Illinois, Ohio State and Michigan, all Top 10 teams. UCLA is just the fourth best team from a mediocre Pac-12. The Bruins lost their best player, Chris Smith, after just eight games this season. UCLA's best win this year was over No. 43 Arizona. The Bruins' strength of schedule was 55th.
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Mike Barner

NEW ORLEANS @ PORTLAND | 03/18 | 10:00 PM EDT
PORTLAND -1
ANALYSIS: It took a late comeback and a monster performance from Damian Lillard for the Blazers to pull off a one-point win when these two teams met in Portland on Tuesday. That also marked the first time that CJ McCollum had played in two months. He struggled in the game, scoring just 10 points on 3-for-11 shooting from the field. As he continues to round back into shape, this is a favorable spot for the Blazers to get another win against the Pelicans, who are a dreadful 5-13 on the road.
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Mike Barner

NEW ORLEANS @ PORTLAND | 03/18 | 10:00 PM EDT
PORTLAND -1
ANALYSIS: It took a late comeback and a monster performance from Damian Lillard for the Blazers to pull off a one-point win when these two teams met in Portland on Tuesday. That also marked the first time that CJ McCollum had played in two months. He struggled in the game, scoring just 10 points on 3-for-11 shooting from the field. As he continues to round back into shape, this is a favorable spot for the Blazers to get another win against the Pelicans, who are a dreadful 5-13 on the road.
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Kyle Akins

ORLANDO @ NEW YORK | 03/18 | 7:30 PM EDT
OVER 206.5
ANALYSIS: New York was winning early in the season, primarily due to its opponents' shooting success. But that has not been the case of late. In the Knicks' last nine outings, they are both scoring and allowing 110 points per contest, and their victories primarily have come in high-scoring games. Orlando is coming off a 102-97 loss to Miami on Sunday in which the Magic committed 23 turnovers. They are 10-0 O/U (16.7 ppg) with more than two days of rest after committing at least 20 turnovers in their previous game.
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Dave Essler

3* Davidson
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Larry Ness

CBB 10* First Four Game of the Year Michigan st

CBB Situational Stunner: Wichita st+2
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IC
Rangers to Qualify -145 (3U)
Kirk/Moore (4U)
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Scott Spreitzer

AFC Ajax (3U)
Norfolk St. +3.5 (3U)
Boise St. -1 (6U)
Penguins (3U)
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World Worst Picker

Michigan State

We Play: UCLA
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John Ryan Sports

UCLA
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Scott Spreitzer

Pelicans +1 (5U
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IC
5 - Mount St. Mary's -1
4 - Utah over 235.5
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AL McMordie

NHL Selections for Thursday, Mar. 18
1* Penguins -163, 7:05 pm

NBA Selections for Thursday, Mar. 18
We will pass in the NBA on Thursday

NCAA Basketball Selections for Thursday, Mar. 18
3*Boise St. -1, 9 pm
1* Norfolk St. +3, 8:40 pm
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John Morrison Tony Chau Champ NBA System
Charlotte 2nd wager
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