Thursday 3/24/22 thread for free handicapping service plays and expert predictions for NCAAB, NBA & NHL games
Dave Essler
3* TOM
Arizona Under 145
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Potato Kmish
Texas Tech ML
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Gianni the Greek
5% BIG MOVE 623) Houston +2 (-120)
5% = Up to HOUSTON PK
4% = Up to HOUSTON -1.5
3% = Up to HOUSTON -2
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Ziti sports
COLLEGE HOOPS
Gonzaga -9.5 -110 Arkansas (7:09 PM)
Houston +1.5 -110 Arizona (9:59 PM)
NHL
Vancouver Canucks vs. Minnesota Wild OVER 6 -105 (8:05 PM)
Nashville Predators +100 Vegas Golden Knights (10:05 PM)
SOCCER UNDER SYSTEM
FIFA - World Cup Qualifiers Asia- Lebanon vs. Syria UNDER 2 -107 (8:00 AM)
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The Prez
4% Florida Panthers -1.5 (+100)
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CleInsiderSports
NBA
Bulls/Pelicans O227.5
CBB
Texas Tech/Duke U137
NHL
Stars/Hurricanes U6
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Greg Peterson
Arizona -1.5 vs Houston
Villanova -5 vs Michigan
Michigan vs Villanova Under 135.5
Arkansas vs Gonzaga Under 155
Texas Tech -1 vs Duke
Updated Record 339-293-14
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VIP Sports
Houston +1.5
Duke +1.5
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Root
Chairman — Houston +1.5
Reserve— Arkansas +10
Gold Standard— Texas Tech -1.5
Pinnacle— Villanova-5.5
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Larry Hartstein
ARKANSAS @ GONZAGA | 03/24 | 7:09 PM EDT
ARKANSAS +9
ANALYSIS: Arkansas leading scorer JD Notae is 10 for 34 in the NCAA Tournament, and as a team the Razorbacks are 10 for 37 from beyond the arc. They've yet to play their best game. I think it comes Thursday in the underdog role. Arkansas has covered four straight as a dog while Gonzaga has failed to cover its last four NCAA Tournament games. The Razorbacks rank 14th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and will be well-prepared thanks to Eric Musselman. While the Zags allowed just 14.8 free-throw attempts per game during the season, they've allowed an average of 22.5 in the NCAA Tournament. Look for Arkansas (44 of 50 on FTs in the tournament) to hang around and cover.
MICHIGAN @ VILLANOVA | 03/24 | 7:29 PM EDT
MICHIGAN +5
ANALYSIS: Villanova is experienced, fundamentally sound and lethal from beyond the arc. But Michigan is much better than its 19-14 record. The Wolverines' talent earned them a preseason No. 6 ranking. DeVante' Jones should be back at full capacity, and in his absence guys like Frankie Collins and Terrance Williams got more chances to shine. Michigan will have a size advantage; I'm looking for another huge game from Hunter Dickinson, who's 16 for 23 with 48 points, 17 boards and five blocks in two NCAA Tournament games. Back Michigan to improve to 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 neutral-site games as an underdog.
+1893 86-61-3 IN LAST 150 CBB ATS PICKS
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Micah Roberts
HOUSTON @ ARIZONA | 03/24 | 9:59 PM EDT
HOUSTON +1.5
ANALYSIS: Imagine losing four starters from the team that played in last season's Final Four and had the No. 1 defense in the nation (37.8 percent shooting allowed), and the replacements the following year play even stingier defense (37.5 percent) and make it to the Sweet 16 again. I'm talking about Houston. I believe in what Cougars coach Kelvin Sampson has implemented more than I do Arizona's first-year coach, Tommy Lloyd, who has done an amazing job so quickly. I’m on Houston.
ARKANSAS @ GONZAGA | 03/24 | 7:09 PM EDT
OVER 155
ANALYSIS: I think both teams will have some success setting a fast pace just as Alabama and Duke did in early-season meetings with the Bulldogs. The Zags' last three have gone Over the total and seven of the Razorbacks' last eight have gone Over. Just the Over.
+2346 48-22 IN LAST 70 CBB PICKS
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Matt Severance
TEXAS TECH @ DUKE | 03/24 | 9:39 PM EDT
DUKE +1
ANALYSIS: My pick here was all about Duke freshman AJ Griffin (10.3 ppg, 3.8 ppg). He injured his ankle in Sunday's win over Michigan State. If Griffin was out, I would have taken TTU, but he's playing. And why do I think the Blue Devils will get all the calls so that Mike Krzyzewski's farewell tour continues? Texas Tech is 0-5 ATS in its past five after a win and 2-6 ATS in its past eight overall. Amazing defensive team, but I simply don't trust TTU to make the key shots when they matter. Perhaps Duke will be able to use its two games vs. Virginia this year as a bit of a template against that TTU defense.
+2299 99-69-4 IN LAST 172 CBB ATS PICKS
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Matt Severance
CLEVELAND @ TORONTO | 03/24 | 7:30 PM EDT
TORONTO -170
ANALYSIS: This is starting to rise at some books, so I'm just going to grab it now and risk someone key being ruled out for Toronto -- I'm presuming oddsmakers know something. Both Gary Trent and OG Anunoby are questionable for the Raptors, but it sounds as if at least Trent will play. This is hugely important for both in potentially avoiding the East play-in tournament. Cleveland hasn't played on the road since March 12 and has lost six of its past seven away.
+2366 56-21 IN LAST 77 NBA ML PICKS
HOUSTON @ ARIZONA | 03/24 | 9:59 PM EDT
ARIZONA -1.5
ANALYSIS: I've been undervaluing Houston ever since the team lost arguably its two best players, Marcus Sasser and Tramon Mark, to season-ending injuries a few months ago. Houston is one of the elite offensive rebounding teams in the country, but Arizona is the second-tallest team in the nation per KenPom. UH hasn't seen a duo like Arizona's Christian Koloko and Azuolas Tubelis. Arizona leads the nation in total rebounds and set a school record for blocked shots. Guard Kerr Kriisa having few extra days to heal that sprained ankle can only help. Kriisa was just 1-of-10 shooting against TCU in the Round of 32 in his return from that injury, but Arizona outscored the Horned Frogs by 24 when he was on the court.
+2189 99-70-4 IN LAST 173 CBB ATS PICKS
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VSiN Hosts & Guests
Dr. Bob Stoll
Gonzaga -9 vs. Arkansas (good to -10)
Shaun King
Saint Peter's +12.5 vs. Purdue
Tim Murray
Miami ml vs. Iowa State
Gill Alexander
Aliaksandra Sasnovich -130 over Kastkina
Alison Riske -154 over Cornet (good to -165)
The Lookahead
Scott Seidenberg
Nuggets ML (-150) vs Suns
Gonzaga -9.5 vs Arkansas
Villanova -5 vs Michigan
Jeff Parles
Villanova -5 v Michigan
Will Hill
Arizona -1.5 v Houston
Duke +1 v Texas Tech
FOLLOW THE MONEY
Mitch Moss
Biggest Sweet 16 Margin of Victory OVER 17.5 Points
Pauly Howard
Largest lead Gonzaga/Arkansas Under 16.5 Points
Kings -120 to win in regulation
Islanders -125 to win in regulation
Jets -165 to win in regulation
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TMT Sports NBA
Yesterday Recap 2-1 +$1,800
(YTD NBA 43-12) (+$89,300) (79%)
4* Cleveland +4.5
2* Milwaukee -12.5
2* Indiana Over 236
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TMT Sports CBB
(March Madness 15-11) (+$7,900)
(Regular Season YTD CBB 210-164) (56%) (+$101,300)
4k Michigan +5
4k Arkansas +9.5
4k Duke Under 137
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XS Sports Picks
NBA: 177-129 (+1135.50 Units)
5* Denver -4
NHL: 156-136 (+902.40 UNITS)
5* Nashville -110
3* Nashville -1.5 +210
5* LA Kings -1.5 +125
NCAA: 27-19 (+194.94 Units)
3* Houston +1.5
3* Houston ML +107
10* Texas Tech PK
7* Texas Tech Under 137
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Stephen Nover
3* CBB Dominator
Ariz ML
2* Pacers
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Strike Point Sports
College Basketball
8u Tournament Game of Year - Arizona -1.5
3u Michigan +5
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kelso
25 raptors
25 arkansas
25 michigan
25 duke
25 houston
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WWP
He takes Gonzaga, Michigan, Arizona
We take Arkansas, Villanova, Houston
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August Young
4* Texas Tech PK
3* Gonzaga Under 155
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Doug Upstone
5* Arizona -1.5
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IC
8* Gonzaga -9.5
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Ben Burns
1* LA Kings
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SPORTS BANK
500*Duke
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Matt Severance
ARKANSAS @ GONZAGA | 03/24 | 7:09 PM EDT
ARKANSAS +10
ANALYSIS: Now that this has risen to 10, I'm going to jump as I don't see it getting higher and in fact may go back down to -9.5. The Zags have looked very beatable in their first two games, and the Hogs have a big man who can potentially get Gonzaga freshman string bean Chet Holmgren (and/or Drew Timme) in foul trouble in sophomore forward Jaylin Williams, who has double-doubled in each NCAA Tournament game. Gonzaga has really struggled from the free-throw line in the Big Dance, while Arkansas is shooting 81.2 percent from the charity stripe over the past eight games. I'm definitely not saying Arkansas will win, but it's 4-1 vs. ranked teams this season, including a win over a No. 1 (Auburn).
+2189 99-70-4 IN LAST 173 CBB ATS PICKS
WASHINGTON @ MILWAUKEE | 03/24 | 8:00 PM EDT
WASHINGTON +13
ANALYSIS: The Wizards stink, but we'll take nearly two TDs with the Bucks ruling out both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. Sounds like a punt game for Milwaukee -- which probably still wins by about 10. This spread will drop.
+1966 74-41-1 IN LAST 116 NBA PICKS
DALLAS @ CAROLINA | 03/24 | 7:00 PM EDT
CAROLINA -220
ANALYSIS: Here's another one where the price is silly, but the Stars are giving newly acquired Scott Wedgewood the start in net, and he's just not good. Dallas can't play Jake Oettinger every single game and backup Braden Holtby is injured. Max Domi is expected to make his Carolina debut. He posted 32 points in 53 games with the Blue Jackets before the trade. I'll probably play this with the Islanders.
FLORIDA @ MONTREAL | 03/24 | 7:00 PM EDT
MONTREAL +1.5
ANALYSIS: Have to take the Habs at plus-money (+110) on the puckline at home. The team is 1-2 since netminder Jake Allen returned from injury but both losses were in overtime and that would be just fine here. Cats backup Spencer Knight goaltender has been better of late than he was early in the season but still is more than capable of a terrible game. Anton Lundell (28 points) and Aaron Ekblad (57 points) are both out for Florida.
DETROIT @ N.Y. ISLANDERS | 03/24 | 7:30 PM EDT
N.Y. ISLANDERS -220
ANALYSIS: I'm really getting tired of betting the NHL because the books just aren't giving us any value. I've been obliterated the past two nights on home losses as massive favorites by Calgary and Colorado, but what am I supposed to do with limited options? I do usually back the Isles at home when Ilya Sorokin is in net, and he is here. He's 11-3-3 with a 1.81 GAA at home. The Wings have just ruled out Filip Zadina (20 points) and Givani Smith (seven points).
+944 25-9 IN LAST 34 NHL PICKS
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Micah Roberts
TEXAS TECH @ DUKE | 03/24 | 9:39 PM EDT
OVER 137
ANALYSIS: Duke has gone Over the total in 12 of its last 15 games, and while Texas Tech has one of the best defenses in the nation, the Blue Devils' defense will allow the Red Raiders to reach their season average of 72 points. Duke averages an 80-66 score. Texas Tech will try and slow down the Blue Devils, but they have been dictating pace terms lately. Take the Over.
MICHIGAN @ VILLANOVA | 03/24 | 7:29 PM EDT
OVER 135
ANALYSIS: Michigan plays its best when it sets a faster tempo, and the Wolverines have everything cooking right now. They're playing well, playing fast, and it’s how they’ve been able to take control against better teams – they've gone over the total in the last five games as underdogs. They’ve gone over in the last four overall and eight of the last 11. Villanova can play any style, and the Wildcats play along and they’re also No. 1 in the nation making free throws (82.5%). Every point counts. Just the over.
+2346 48-22 IN LAST 70 CBB PICKS
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Jeff Hochman
HOUSTON @ ARIZONA | 03/24 | 9:59 PM EDT
ARIZONA -1.5
ANALYSIS: The Wildcats played the tougher schedule and I think that matters more in the Sweet 16. I see numerous advantages for the Wildcats. Arizona has a lot of experience against really good defensive teams this season. The Wildcats are 9-1 against teams that allow 64 points or less. Houston has very little experience against good offensive teams this season. Houston is 1-1 against teams that average 77 or more points. Take Arizona.
+90 2-1-1 IN LAST 4 CBB PICKS
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Max Gorenstein
ARKANSAS @ GONZAGA | 03/24 | 7:09 PM EDT
ARKANSAS +9.5
ANALYSIS: Yes, this line is skewed because of the Bulldogs struggles in the first two rounds. I still think the line is too high. The Razorbacks also struggled in their first two games, both against slow paced teams. The Bulldogs play at one of the fastest paces in the nation. The Razorbacks are comfortable playing at a fast pace. They should keep this game close enough to cover this spread.
+180 4-2 IN LAST 6 CBB ATS PICKS
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Mario Rojas
624 Arizona over 145
10 St. Louis -1.5 +100
627 Arkansas +9.5
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Dionne D'Amico
5* Sweet 16 High Roller
Houston +1.5 (#623)
Winning games certainly shows how good you are. But if you look very closely it can also show your flaws. In their overtime win and no cover against TCU on Sunday, Arizona certainly had issues on the offensive boards. Houston is one of the best in the nation on the glass at both ends of the court. On the defensive side, they rank 20th in college basketball. They have the size, the strength, and the speed to not just frustrate the Wildcats, but also dominate on the boards. Furthermore, they also have a ton of experience come the month of March. If you recall they went to the Final Four just last year. Forwards, White Jr. and Carlton match up well with big men, Tubelis and Koloko. They are just as big and just as strong. But they also are significantly quicker. This poses a big problem for the Wildcats.
Houston won’t be intimidated here at all as they have stepped out of their conference this season, playing and beating some very big-name foes. And in those matchups against bigger conference opponents, their defense swarmed, frustrated, and overcame many talented offenses. They enter this matchup knowing they have won all five of their postseason games. And for our purposes, have also covered all five of those post-season matchups. The Wildcats are 4-11 against the spread the last 15 games played on neutral sites and 0-4 against spread the last four NCAA Tournament games. The Cougars are 12-3 against the spread the last 15 games played as an underdog and 25-9 against the spread the last 34 games played on neutral sites.
Play Houston.
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Paul Stone
Arkansas
Michigan
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WUnderdog
NCAA
Michigan/Villanova 135.5 Under
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Goodfella
3* Houston +2 -115
EDIT: This is his Free pick
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Matt Severance
WASHINGTON @ MILWAUKEE | 03/24 | 8:00 PM EDT
WASHINGTON +13
ANALYSIS: The Wizards stink, but we'll take nearly two TDs with the Bucks ruling out both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. Sounds like a punt game for Milwaukee -- which probably still wins by about 10. This spread will drop.
INDIANA @ MEMPHIS | 03/24 | 8:00 PM EDT
INDIANA +12.5
ANALYSIS: Indiana lost in the final seconds at home on Wednesday vs. Sacramento, which crushed me betting-wise, and would have no shot normally in Memphis ... but the Grizzlies are semi-punting with Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke all taking a seat in the second of a B2B for the Grizz as well. Probably a trap game anyways for Memphis off the big win over Brooklyn. The Pacers will have Malcolm Brogdon tonight after he sat Wednesday. UPDATE: Indiana is now sitting guys left and right so I'd just steer clear of this game completely at this point.
+1966 74-41-1 IN LAST 116 NBA PICKS
DALLAS @ CAROLINA | 03/24 | 7:00 PM EDT
CAROLINA -220
ANALYSIS: Here's another one where the price is silly, but the Stars are giving newly acquired Scott Wedgewood the start in net, and he's just not good. Dallas can't play Jake Oettinger every single game and backup Braden Holtby is injured. Max Domi is expected to make his Carolina debut. He posted 32 points in 53 games with the Blue Jackets before the trade. I'll probably play this with the Islanders.
FLORIDA @ MONTREAL | 03/24 | 7:00 PM EDT
MONTREAL +1.5
ANALYSIS: Have to take the Habs at plus-money (+110) on the puckline at home. The team is 1-2 since netminder Jake Allen returned from injury but both losses were in overtime and that would be just fine here. Cats backup Spencer Knight goaltender has been better of late than he was early in the season but still is more than capable of a terrible game. Anton Lundell (28 points) and Aaron Ekblad (57 points) are both out for Florida.
DETROIT @ N.Y. ISLANDERS | 03/24 | 7:30 PM EDT
N.Y. ISLANDERS -220
ANALYSIS: I'm really getting tired of betting the NHL because the books just aren't giving us any value. I've been obliterated the past two nights on home losses as massive favorites by Calgary and Colorado, but what am I supposed to do with limited options? I do usually back the Isles at home when Ilya Sorokin is in net, and he is here. He's 11-3-3 with a 1.81 GAA at home. The Wings have just ruled out Filip Zadina (20 points) and Givani Smith (seven points).
+944 25-9 IN LAST 34 NHL PICKS
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Mike Barner
CHICAGO @ NEW ORLEANS | 03/24 | 8:00 PM EDT
NEW ORLEANS -3.5
ANALYSIS: The big news surrounding this game is that DeMar DeRozan is out for the Bulls. They have lost four of their last five games, so their MVP-candidate being sidelined will further complicate matters. All four of those losses came on the road, where they are 16-20 this season. They are also just 14-22 ATS on the road. Don’t expect them to exercise their demons away from home with arguably their best player out, and with Zach LaVine playing through a seemingly never-ending knee issue.
CLEVELAND @ TORONTO | 03/24 | 7:30 PM EDT
CLEVELAND +5
ANALYSIS: The Raptors have played eight of their last nine games on the road, and will now embark on a four-game homestand. They have not played well there, going just 16-17 ATS. They have lost three straight home games with those defeats coming at the hands of bad teams in the Lakers, Magic and Pistons. The Cavaliers are the healthiest that they have been in a while, and are 13-10 ATS as a road underdog. They are also 3-0 versus the Raptors this season. Give me the points.
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Zack Cimini
WASHINGTON @ MILWAUKEE | 03/24 | 8:00 PM EDT
WASHINGTON +9
ANALYSIS: The Wizards have been a completely different team without Bradley Beal, especially on the road. Overall, they’ve lost seven straight away from home by an average of 10 points. But we are evaluating the spread here, and the Bucks might be in a letdown spot. After a four-game road trip, Milwaukee hosted a Chicago team that was in a back-to-back spot. Look for the Bucks to have an off-quarter that impacts the spread enough for the underdog. Take the Wizards.
HOUSTON @ ARIZONA | 03/24 | 9:59 PM EDT
ARIZONA -1.5
ANALYSIS: In every NCAA Tournament, there is a top team that survives a game it should not have won. It typically creates great value against the spread in the team's next matchup. Houston has looked every bit as strong as it did last season, but Arizona is playing at a different caliber. Look for the Wildcats to make a big statement and come out as the new favorite among the Elite Eight teams.
MICHIGAN @ VILLANOVA | 03/24 | 7:29 PM EDT
MICHIGAN +5
ANALYSIS: Time and time again, we have seen a No. 11 seed get hot during March Madness. The time off between its first two wins actually helps the underdog believe even more. Michigan went through a roller-coaster season but has the size to give Villanova problems. Look for the Wolverines to have the better offense when it matters most and cover the spread.
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Justin Perri
MICHIGAN @ VILLANOVA | 03/24 | 7:29 PM EDT
VILLANOVA -5
ANALYSIS: This game is going to be a battle, but when it comes down to it I think Villanova has what it takes to beat Michigan and cover a 5 point line. Nova is one of the most complete and effective teams in the nation right now. They have the guard play, shooting and defensive metrics needed to methodically win a game against anyone. They are liable to keep a game below 120 points on any given night and close out a cover as the best free throw shooting team in the nation. In a game where every point matters and games come down to shooting performances behind the arc and at the line, Nova is the type of team you want to back. By my analysis, it would take a red hot shooting night for Michigan to compete. I'm laying the 5.
+690 30-21 IN LAST 51 CBB ATS PICKS
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Al McMordie
79% SWEET 16 GAME OF THE YEAR! - Texas Tech -1
NHL SLAPSHOT CLUB - Edmonton -240
NBA TRIPLE PACK! - Toronto -4.5 , Indiana +12.5 , Denver -4
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Delphi Sports
NBA
3* #574 Memphis -12
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Brian Bitler
9* NBA Thursday Executive Order
Toronto Raptors -5
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