Raging Bull
Soccer:
Metz/Dijon FCO over 2 (France Ligue 2)
St. Pauli/Hansa Rostock over 2.5 (German 2 Bundesliga)
Sparta Rotterdam/Willem II Tilburg over 2.5 (Dutch Eredivisie)
AGOVV Apeldoorn/FC Emmen VV over 3 (Dutch Eerste Divisie)
VERNON CROY
NBA Conference Game of the Month
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls -6.5
20 Units, Take Chicago ATS, This pick falls into one of my top NBA systems and the Bulls have been dominating teams at home lately. The Bulls have won their last 4 homes games by an average of 15 ppg against a lot better team than the Bucks (Denver, Houston, Orlando and Golden State). The Bulls beat the Bucks in their last meeting back on Feb.18 by 9 points in Milwaukee and yet the Bulls have struggled on the road so I look for them to blow out the Bucks at home Friday night. The Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and the favorite is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between these two teams. The Bucks are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and they are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against a Central division opponent. The Bulls have owned the Bucks in Chicago with a 17-8 ATS record and 19-6 SU record against them in their last 25 home games. Take Chicago as my NBA Conference Game of the Month.
Maddux Sports
Basketball
3 units on Phoenix +6.5
3 units on Denver +9.5
3 units on Drexel -7
3 units on Illinois State -5
3 units on College of Charleston -12
3 units on Tennessee Martin -4
3 units on Murray State -3
Free Pick Orlando -9
Blade,
I know you don't like people asking for plays, but Chris Jordan has his 400* Conference Tourney Odds Error of the Year play on the Southern Illinois/Bradley game which starts early at 2:30pm central time. Please post this if you find it. Thanks and Happy Friday to everyone!
Anyone seen any other picks? Games start in less than an hour. Thought the plays would be coming out quicker today...
RAS
GA St. +2.5
Jimmy Mad -2.5
Towson +7
All for 1 Unit
Drew Gordon
100,000♦ Celtics
50,000♦ Jazz
Jeff Benton
15 Dime: BOBCATS
10 Dime: NOTRE DAME
5 Dime: JAZZ
Bobcats
Don’t look now, but the Charlotte Bobcats – yes, the Charlotte Bobcats – are making a push for the playoffs. Despite being nine games under .500, this once lowly franchise is just 1½ games out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Charlotte comes into tonight playing its best basketball of the season, winning four straight games, the longest such streak since the Bobcats took five in a row to start March last year.
Granted, the four wins have come against the Kings, Warriors, Clippers and Bulls – in other words, not exactly the Lakers, Spurs, Cavs and Celtics. However, the first three of those victories came on the road on the West Coast, and the latter was Tuesday’s 96-80 romp over Chicago as a 1½-point home chalk.
The Bobcats have cashed in all four games during their four-game winning streak, going 3-0 ATS as a small favorite, too. And going back to Feb. 8, Charlotte has cashed in nine of its last 12 contests, going 4-1 ATS at home. In fact, the Bobcats – who have played 12 of their last 17 games on the highway – are 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.
Admittedly, one of those three losses came against the Hawks, who have actually taken the first three meetings in this rivalry this season (2-1 ATS). However, those three contests were decided by margins of 6, 4 and 5 points. And prior to the Feb. 6 loss to the Hawks in Charlotte, the Bobcats had covered four straight and seven of nine against Atlanta. Furthermore, before last month’s meeting, the home team had won eight in a row SU between these teams, with the Bobcats going 4-0 SU and ATS at home!
Finally, while the Bobcats enter this game on a roll, the same absolutely cannot be said for the Hawks, who are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS in their last nine games, including 2-5 SU and ATS on the road (the two SU road wins came at Washington and Sacramento – the two worst teams in the NBA!).
Look, I know Charlotte guard Raja Bell is questionable tonight with a biceps injury, and he’s certainly a key to the Bobcats’ recent offensive surge (over the last five games, they’re averaging 101.6 ppg on 49.1 percent shooting overall and 47.6 percent shooting from 3-point range). But Charlotte has been contributions up and down the bench during its recent run, and I expect the same tonight. You throw in the fact that this is Atlanta’s ninth road game in its last 12 contests – all since Feb. 11 – and I’ll gladly lay this cheap number with rapidly improving Charlotte.
Notre Dame
Two nights ago, I told you the oddsmakers were setting a trap when they made Pitt, which had failed to cover in six of eight games against Marquette, a 10-point home favorite against the No. 13 Golden Eagles and said the Panthers would cover the number with ease. They did.
Last night, I told you the oddsmakers were setting a trap when they made Xavier, which lost by 12 points at Dayton last month, a 10-point home favorite against the Flyers, stressing that the Musketeers would be out to prove a point and would blow Dayton out of the water. They did.
Tonight, I’m telling you once again that the oddsmakers are setting a trap with this Notre Dame-St. John’s pointspread. You’ve got the Irish in a 4-10 SU slump and they’ve failed to cover in 12 of their last 15 games, going 3-11 ATS in Big East play during this rut. At the same time, St. John’s has cashed in five of its last six games, including five straight as an underdog, and the Red Storm have evened their season record by winning three of their last four outright. Oh yeah, and St. John’s upset Notre Dame 71-65 as an 8½-point ‘dog on Jan. 3.
And yet despite all this, Vegas has made Notre Dame, which is coming off a 17-point home loss to Villanova in its most important game of the season, an 11½-point favorite? Gotta be a reason, right? Indeed there is. This is the Irish’s last home game of the season, and don’t think for a second that doesn’t mean something – just look at Pitt and Xavier, who posted double-digit routs on Senior Night the last two days.
Also, there’s the simple fact that, despite the result when these teams met two months ago and despite both squads’ recent performances, Notre Dame still had a massive edge in talent. Don’t forget, this is the same Irish team that beat Texas in Maui back in November and hammered Louisville 90-57 at home to halt an eight-game losing skid 2½ weeks ago. At the same time, St. John’s lost its first eight road games of the season (1-7 ATS), including its first seven Big East road contests before breaking through against DePaul on Saturday – that would be the same DePaul that hasn’t won a game in conference play!
The Red Storm’s seven Big East losses were by margins of 21 (Providence), 23 (Pitt), 19 (Villanova), 23 (West Virginia), 10 (Seton Hall) and 14 (Marquette), and they also fell at Boston College by 12 points in their first road game. I’m telling you guys, Notre Dame and its seniors will come to play tonight and the Irish will be motivated to end a most disappointing regular season – and carry SOME kind of momentum in next week’s Big East tournament – with an empathic victory. Play the Fighting Irish minus the points.
Jazz
Speaking of “trap” lines, the Jazz are 38-23 on the season, but still 1½ games behind first-place Denver in the Northwest Division … and yet, Utah is a near double-digit chalk tonight against the Nuggets. Gee, Denver seems almost too easy here, doesn’t it? Hey, you know the old saying: If something looks too good to be true, it probably is, and that cliché definitely applies here.
For one thing, Utah has won nine straight games overall, going 7-2 ATS. The Jazz have also taken 10 in a row at home, and prior to not covering in its last two home wins over the Kings and Rockets (by a combined six points, mind you), it had covered in eight consecutive contests in Salt Lake City. And get this: The Jazz have scored at least 100 points in six straight overall, eight of nine and 14 of 16.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets have lost four straight road games both SU and ATS, and despite last night’s impressive home win over Portland, they’re just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests. Also, Denver is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog, 16-37-1 ATS in their last 54 as a pup of 5 to 10½ points, and they haven’t cashed in four of their last five back-to-back spots
On the other hand, Utah has been money in the bank as a favorite (10-3 ATS last 13), at home (59-29-2 last 90), on Friday (7-1 last eight) and when playing after a day’s respite (4-0 last four). Add it all up, and it’s easy to understand this big number. Lay it!
Karl Garrett
20 DIMER - PHOENIX SUNS
10 DIMER - TOWSON STATE TIGERS
Points work tonight, as Phoenix is 0-for-2 on their current 4-game road swing which still has a stop in San Antonio to go!
Look for the Suns to come out strong, as they do have a "payback" issue on the docket, losing by a dozen at home to the Rockets in the middle of November.
Yes, Houston has been the hotter team of late, but the Rockets are still just .500 at home this year, where they are 15-15-1 against the math.
G-Man can't back this play up with any more statistical copy, as much of it is negative for my play on the Suns, but I can tell you my "spider sense" says that if the Suns losing streak hits 3 in a row, it is going to be in heartbreaking fashion.
Take the points, as this one stays close.
10 DIMER - TOWSON STATE TIGERS
On a neutral floor, can't see Drexel blowing out this Towson team.
Drexel comes into the Colonial Tournament off of losses in their last pair of games, and 5 of their last 8 overall. The Dragons have also failed in 4 of their last 6 when laying points.
The Tigers suffered the season series sweep at the hands of the Dragons both straight up, and against the spread, as the series losing streak is now at 3 in a row for Towson. Still, I like the Tigers in this neutral court battle to take it down to the wire, as Towson has shown some spunk of late, covering their last 2 games of the regular season, both in the dog role, and the Tigers are also 4-2 their last 6 when catching points.
Let's call it a Drexel 4-point win, but NO COVER!
Take the points.
Sports Gambling Hotline
CHARLOTTE SERVICE
3♦ on Phoenix plus the points. Bonus
2♦ on Atlanta
2♦ on Wichita State plus the points.
Chris Jordan
400♦ BRADLEY and 100♦ OVER Bradley/Southern Illinois - We have the two hottest teams in the Missouri Valley Conference going at it tonight, and in believing this tournament is up for grabs, I also think the Braves are the team to reckon with right now. Trust me, this event is bound to see some surprises. I'm not going to get much into your total analysis, except to tell you the numbers I crunch daily are on a nice little 4-1 run when they fall into place as 100♦ releases. And I have this game getting over the posted number.
I admit the Salukis have learned to play without senior guard Bryan Mullins, who's been sidelined since being diagnosed with a stress fracture in his right foot last month, but this is still a team that forced to battle not only through injuries but also internal turmoil, which included player defections.
I think the Salukis - the preseason favorite to win this conference - will give Bradley a run for the victory in this one, which is where I see the total coming in, but the Braves are a scrappy bunch that pulled off a 17-13 mark overall and 10-8 record in conference play. And that was enduring some injuries of their own.
Looking insdie the betting numbers, Bradley comes into this one on ATS runs of 4-0 as the neutral-court chalk, 7-2 on Friday nights, 7-2 as the favorite and 8-3 when laying a number in this range. On the flipside, the Salukis are 2-5 ATS as an underdog, 3-9 when catching points in this range and 0-5 ATS on neutral courts.
With the total, the over has come in four straight times they've hooked up. The over is also on a 6-1 run with the Salukis, while the high number has come in five of the last six times Bradley has stepped on the wood.
100♦ PRINCETON - Under second-year coach Sydney Johnson, I sincerely like what I've seen from these Tigers. Princeton finished last in the Ivy League the season before Johnson’s arrival, and picked to finish once again this season, the Tigers roar into a three-game stretch tonight at Columbia and could very well come out of the jungle with their first Ivy title since 2004. Princeton enters these final three games of the regular-season campaign with a 7-4 Ivy record, trailing Cornell by 1-1/2 games, a margin it can slice into Saturday night when it visits Big Red.
But first up are the Lions, and Johnson admitted in one report that tonight is "our biggest game of the year. With all due respect to Cornell and Penn, nothing for us goes beyond Friday night and Columbia. We are prepared for a team that plays great at home, plays great defense. If we don’t have a good effort Friday, it’s going to be hard to keep that momentum going." Sometimes quotes say it best, and I take that one from the New York media because it sums it up best. I love the focus he's instilled, and love this number with Princeton.
Vegas Sports Experts
10* Take James Madison (-2) over William & Mary (NCAA Power Play)
James Madison
• 10-3 ATS coming off an OVER the total this season
• 10-1 ATS coming off a road game this season
• 8-2 ATS when the total posted is between 130 and 139.5 points
10* Take Orlando (-9) over New Jersey (NBA Power Play)
Orlando
• 10-1 ATS when playing with two days or more of rest
• 15-6 ATS when the total posted is greater than 200 points
• 18-8 ATS coming off a non-conference game this season
Bonus Pays
5* Take WI-Milwaukee (+4.5) over Wright State (NCAA)
5* Take Buffalo (-215) over Phoenix (NHL)
Winning Angle
NCAA
Play Austin Peay (+3) over Murray State* (Top NCAA Play)
Austin Peay has won 6 consecutive games coming off a home win by 3 points or less and they have also won 8 of the last 9 games after playing a game as a favorite. Austin Peay has won 6 of the last 7 conference tournament games.
Play Marist (+3.5) over Iona* (Bonus NCAA Play)
Iona has lost 8 of the last 9 games against the spread and they have also lost 8 of the last 9 games when playing on a neutral court. Iona has lost 29 of the last 35 games coming off an OVER the total.
NBA Hoops
Play Miami (-1) over Toronto* (NBA Top Play)
NHL
Play Calgary (-105) over Carolina* (NHL Bonus Play)
NevadaSharpshooter
400* shootout
Appalachian State-7
Best Bets
St Johns +12
Southern Illnois +2.5
BobbyClarkeSports
Georgia St +2.5 Wager 770 to win 700
Hofstra - 7.5 Wager 770 to win 700
Wisc-Milwaukee +4 Wager 770 to win 700
Drexel -7 Wager 770 to win 700
Austin Peay Wager 770 to win 700