FRIDAY PREMIUM SERVICE PLAYS

RAS

Robert Morris/Michigan State (Over 129.5)
Rating: 1.50

Akron/Gonzaga (Over 131.5)
Rating: 1.00

Fairway Jay

20* Big Drive: Utah Pk

Big Drive: USC -2

Stephen F. Austin +12

North Dakota State +10.5

Cornell +13

Wisconsin +2.5

Portland State +10.5

THE GOLD SHEET'S HOOP LATE PHONE SERVICE

EARLY BASKETBALL LTS RELEASES FOR FRIDAY, MARCH 20:

Top Choice (1½ units) TEMPLE +5½ over Arizona State

TENNESSEE -2 over Oklahoma State

NORTH DAKOTA STATE +10 over Kansas

SIXTH SENSE

2% UTAH ST/MARQUETTE UNDER 142.5

2% SYRACUSE -12

2% MARQUETTE -4

3% E. TENNESSEE ST/PITTSBURGH UNDER 149

2% CORNELL/MISSOURI UNDER 146.5

2% ARIZONA/UTAH UNDER 134.5

2% USC/BOSTON COLLEGE OVER 136

2% SIENA/OHIO STATE UNDER 142.5

2% ROBERT MORRIS/MICHIGAN STATE UNDER 131.5

2% OHIO STATE -3

Dr. Bob

3 Star Selection
Wake Forest (-7 ½) over Cleveland State

I lost my Best Bet on Butler -6 over Cleveland State in the Horizon League Tournament Final, but that win by the Vikings gives me no hesitation in going against them again here. Cleveland State is still not as good in games without injured guard D’Aundray Brown (51% FG, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per game) and the only reason they were even close against Butler was due to a huge variance from the expected 3-point shooting of each team. Cleveland State has only made 31.7% of their 3-point shots this season, but the Vikings were 10 of 19 in that game against a good Butler defense (I expected 28.3% 3-point shooting) and a good shooting Butler team (35.2%) made just 4 of 19 3-point shots when they were expected to make 34.8% at home against a slightly better than average Cleveland State 3-point defense. Cleveland State managed to make 6 more 3-pointers on the same number of attempts as Butler in that game, rather than making less as expected, and the Vikings would have lost by about 15 points had the 3-point shooting not been so randomly variant. Beating Butler has made the Vikings a bit overrated while Wake’s loss to Maryland in the ACC tournament has resulted in less respect. Wake Forest may have lost to Maryland, but they are good enough to be 6-1 straight up against the best teams that they faced this season – winning at BYU, beating North Carolina in their only meeting, sweeping Clemson, beating Florida State by 23 points and splitting two games with Duke. My ratings favor Wake Forest by 8 ½ points with Brown out for Cleveland State and the Demon Deacons’ strong defense (I rate them 15th in the nation in adjusted points per possession allowed) should overwhelm a normally poor shooting Vikings squad (43% FG, 32% 3-pointers). Cleveland State does play good defense, but Wake Forest performed relatively better offensively against better defensive teams, as wins over Duke, Florida State, and North Carolina would attest. The reason for this play is a number of strong situations that favor Wake Forest, including a 15-0 ATS subset of an 82-29-3 ATS first round angle. Cleveland State, meanwhile, applies to a negative 9-33-1 ATS letdown situation. I’ll take Wake Forest in a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 or less and for 2-Stars at -8 ½ or -9 points. My math model predicts 140 total points.

3 Star Selection
Arizona State (-4 1/2) over Temple

Temple played great in winning the Atlantic 10 tournament, but the Owls are not good enough to beat Arizona State if both teams play their normal game. Temple and Arizona State both shoot a lot of 3-pointer (21 per game at 36.7% for Temple and 22 per game at 36.6% for ASU), but the Sun Devils have an advantage in this match-up because they defend the 3-point arc so much better. ASU allowed just 31.4% long range shooting to a schedule of teams that combine to average 35.5% from deep while Temple was just average defending the arc, giving up 34.3% 3-point shooting to teams that combine for 34.5%. Temple’s Dionte Christmas is getting a lot of pub for his good performance in the A 10 tournament, but Christmas is an inconsistent shooter that made just 41% of his shots while ASU star James Hardin in a top 5 NBA draft pick that made 50% of his shots while adding 4.2 assists and 1.7 steals per game. My ratings favor Arizona State by 6 ½ points and the Sun Devils are due to bounce-back from their loss to USC in the Pac-10 finals. Coach Herb Sendek’s team is 20-11 ATS after a point spread loss in his 3 seasons, including 12-2 ATS recently, so it’s not often the Sun Devils play poorly in consecutive games. Temple has accumulated a very good spread record the last two seasons (41-22-3 ATS), but the Owls don’t perform as well against motivated teams and they are just 3-10-1 ATS against a .500 or better team that is coming off a loss (1-6 ATS this season and 1-4 ATS as a dog). Temple also applies to a negative 2-17 ATS subset of a 42-70-1 ATS letdown situation while the Sun Devils apply to a 99-36-3 ATS round 1 angle. I’ll take Arizona State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -6 or less, for 4-Stars at -4 or less, and for 2-Stars at -6 ½ or -7 points. My predicted total is 121 ½ points.

Matt Farrgo

**10** 1ST RND GAME OF THE YEAR *16-6 RUN*

Wisconsin comes into the NCAA Tournament as a number 12 seed meaning it along with Arizona was the last teams to get into the field of 65. It may come as a surprise to many that the Badgers were seeded so low but not me. I didn’t think they deserved to be here in the first place. The Badgers finished strong, going 7-2 over their last nine games but included in those seven wins were four victories against teams not making the tournament including two against Indiana. Wisconsin quietly bowed out of the Big Ten Tournament with a loss against Ohio St. which was its 9th loss this season when it had a lead with under six minutes remaining. Sure, that said the Badgers have hung around in their games this season but it also tells us that they do not have what it takes to win these games down the stretch. Solid defense has been the difference in year’s past but that is not the case this year. After leading the nation in scoring defense last year, the Badgers haven’t been nearly as efficient this year. When Indiana shot 54 percent against Wisconsin in Sunday’s regular-season finale, they hit the postseason allowing opponents to shoot 44.0 percent from the floor which was good for ninth place in the Big Ten. After the Buckeyes game, they are allowing 44.4 percent shooting and here is the real kicker. Wisconsin is one of only four teams in the entire tournament that is getting outshot on the season (Michigan, Tennessee-Chattanooga and Portland St. are the others). The schedule has been tough as it is ranked 11th in the nation but in comparison. The Seminoles have played the 13th ranked schedule and they have outshot opponents by +4.9 percent. Over the last five games, Florida St. is +10.5 percent in shooting margin while the Badgers are -5.7 percent in shooting margin. That is an enormous difference. Florida St. made a great run through the ACC Tournament and this is a dangerous NCAA Tournament team. The Seminoles are long and athletic and they are dangerous both up top and down low and a combination of the two is often the main ingredient for advancing in this tournament. Guard Toney Douglas finished the regular season by scoring in double figures in 19 straight games, including 19 or more points in his last 15 ACC games while averaging 23.5 ppg during that span. Center Solomon Alabi leads the ACC with 67 blocked shots, and the Seminoles finished the regular season with twice as many blocked shots (180) as their opponents (89). The Badgers will no doubt be keying on Douglas but as mentioned, the defense is far from what it used to be like as there is no lock down defender similar to Michael Flowers from last year. The Seminoles are allowing opponents to shoot 9.3 percent less than what the Badgers are allowing opponents to shoot over the last five games. Considering Florida St. has played Duke twice and North Carolina in that span, it is even more impressive. Wisconsin is just 3-10 ATS in the second half of this season when playing a team with a winning record. It has struggled against the better defensive teams, going 1-9 ATS in the second half of the year against teams allowing 42 percent shooting or better. Florida St. meanwhile is 7-1 ATS following a loss this season and it has won those games by nearly 10 ppg. If there is a team that matches up well with Pittsburgh in this bracket, it is the Seminoles, just look at the first meeting this season, and we could see a Sweet 16 rematch next weekend. 10* Florida St. Seminoles

Raging Bull

SOCCER:

HSC MONTPELLIER/STADE BRESTOIS 29 over 2 (France Ligue 2)

HANSA ROSTOCK/TUS KOBLENZ over 2.5 (German 2 Bundesliga)

VFL OSNABRUCK/ROT WEISS OBERHAUSEN over 2.5 (German 2 Bundesliga)

NCAA:

CORNELL vs. MISSOURI OVER 145

UTAH STATE +5

NORTH DAKOTA STATE +10

SIENA +3

FLORIDA STATE -2.5

FLORIDA -5

Karl Garrett

30 DIMER - WAKE FOREST
10 DIMER - FLORIDA STATE
10 DIMER - BOSTON COLLEGE

I will answer the question I posed on my home page...Wake Forest will blow this team out!

I know the Deacons haven't been anywhere near where they were earlier this season, but this is still a team that held down the #1 ranking in the land for a cup of coffee, and I think today's opponent is tailor-made for a game that may stay close for a while, but gets outta control late.

Cleveland State did take the Horizon Tournament, but the Horizon was most definitely in a down year this year, and it is likely the Vikings are going back home with a double-digit loss hung on them.

Wake has covered 5 of their last 7 when laying points, and they cover tonight, as the Demon Deacons show why they were once ranked #1 in the nation with the ringing win tonight.

10 DIMER - FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES

I saw enough of Wisconsin on TV this season to know they will not win this game against Florida State.

The Badgers simply don't have a reliable enough offense to avoid going into a 5-minute drought or so, which they seem to do at least twice a game.

Florida State served notice with a solid run in the ACC tournament that they can play with the best of them, and after tangling with mighty North Carolina, playing Wisconsin will seem like a walk in the park.

The Badgers did drop 3 of their final 5 games straight up, and 4 of those 5 against the spread.

Have to side with the Sems minus the small impost, as I have a feeling Florida State is sticking around for another dance.

10 DIMER - BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES

Yesterday the Cal Golden Bears of the Pacific 10 were a slight favorite over the ACC's Maryland Terrapins, and the Terps controlled that game for just about the full 40 minutes.

Today we have another slight Pac 10 favorite in USC going up against another team from the ACC.

You see where I am going with this?

Boston College has beaten Duke, and North Carolina already this season, and I am just not sure why they are getting no love against a team that I feel is the "chic" "it" team right now.

Yes, the Trojans did take the Pac 10 tourney, but they has lost 6 of 9 coming into that tournament, so the G-Man sure as shit ain't sold on Tim Floyd's crew.

The Prez

Oklahoma State +3 / 5 units

East Tennessee St +21 / 3 units

Cornell +14 / 5 units

Arizona / Utah Under 135.5 / 7 units

Florida State -2.5 / 4 units

igz1 sports

4* Syracuse -11.5
3* Kansas -10
3* Pittsburgh -19.5
3* Louisville -20.5

Maddux Sports

3 units on Stephen Austin +12
4 units on Cornell +13
3 units on Wisconsin +2.5
3 units on Wake Forest -8
3 units on Arizona State -5.5
3 units on Michigan State -16
3 units on Portland State +10.5

Free Pick Pittsburgh -19.5

Bob Valentino

25 DIME - UTAH UTES

Tim Sullivan

Boston College + 2.5

Ohio State -3

SmashYourBook

Tourney Lock # 1

Utah