Las Vegas Sport Picks
NBA:
2* Raptors -1
3* Wolves/Rockets under 193
5* Kings/Knicks over 225
NCAA:
3* Tenn/Ok State over 156
5* AZ/Utah under 134
6* USC -2.5
6* WVU -9
7* FSU -2 -120
9* Stephen F Austin/Cuse over 130
Scott Rickenbach
1* (regular play) Temple Owls (+) vs Arizona State
We have watched this line climb all the way from 4.5 up to a 6 and this is giving some big value to the underdog Owls. The Sun Devils have trouble creating separation from teams because they’re not a big scoring team. They rely heavily on their defense. Their only truly big scorer is James Harden as Jeff Pendergraph is quite inconsistent (four field goals or less in four of their last eight games). Also, we love the fact that everybody is siding with the big Pac Ten team here while a dangerous Atlantic Ten team is essentially getting no respect. Keep in mind, Temple knocked off Xavier and Tennessee this season and they do a very good job of harassing opponents and disrupting their offensive flow. They are a solid rebounding club thanks in particular to the big contributions of 6’9 Lavoy Allen. Also, Dionte Christmas is definitely capable of matching the Sun Devils Harden point for point. While the Sun Devils are relatively young, the Owls are loaded with veteran leadership and are looking for redemption after getting bumped in the first round by Michigan State last season. For Arizona State, they have not been to the Big Dance in six years! The Owls veteran leadership is a big reason why Temple won all four of their overtime games this season. They do have a knack for winning the close ones and they also finished the season with a ton of momentum. Temple is 17-5 in their last 22 games and all five losses came by a single digit margin. The Sun Devils are simply going to struggle to build any type of margin here. Arizona State also has had the wind taken out of their sails twice lately. They lost three straight games very late in the regular season. Then they blew their game against USC in the Pac Ten Tournament Championship Game. Herb Sendek is an excellent coach but his team’s confidence is a little shaken at this point while the Owls come in flying high! Grab the line value and the momentum with the boys from Philly here. Play Temple plus the points as a regular selection
EZ Winners
2* Oklahoma State +2
2* North Dakota State +9.5
DOC
5 units ARIZONA STATE
4 units Kansas
GAME DAY
Syracuse
Missouri
Dayton
Utah State
Michael Cannon
30 Dime – OKLAHOMA STATE
Take Oklahoma State as the small dog over Tennessee in the first round of the East Regional.
I haven’t trusted the Vols all season long and I’m not about to hop on their bandwagon now. Tennessee simply hasn’t lived up to its potential and they’re going to be in for a huge surprise today against an Oklahoma State team that was red-hot down the stretch.
The Cowboys won six of their last seven to close out the regular season, going 7-0 ATS. They reached the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament before losing to Missouri.
I love the tempo Oklahoma State plays and they are also a very dangerous perimeter team. If they’re able to extend the Vols defense that will help neutralize the frontcourt combination of Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism.
Tennessee is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against the Big 12, 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine as an NCAA tournament chalk and 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference games. The Cowboys are on ATS runs of 9-1 in their last 10 overall and 16-7-2 in their last 25 neutral-site games.
Take the points with Oklahoma State as they get it done over Tennessee.
5 Dime – UTAH STATE
Take the points with Utah State in the West Regional over Marquette.
Much has been made of Marquette’s struggles down the stretch after losing senior point guard Dominic James. His absence has left a glaring hole in the Golden Eagles lineup and I expect Utah State to give Marquette a serious run here as a result.
It’s not like the Aggies are some overmatched little school here. They won 30 games this season and knocked off host Nevada in the Western Athletic Conference title game.
Utah State enters this game on a 4-0 SU run, and five of its last six wins were double-digit routs in WAC play.
Marquette is on ATS slides of 4-7 overall, 1-4 as a chalk and 1-4-1 in non-conference play. Utah State is on positive ATS runs of 10-4 in non-conference action, 9-3 at neutral sites, 6-1 as an underdog and 6-1 as a neutral-site dog.
Give the Aggies the venue edge as well, as this game is being played in Boise.
Take the points with Utah State as they have a good chance at pulling off the outright win.
Executive
300%Tennessee -2
300% Arizona St -5'
Eddie Mush
4* L'ville -21
4* Port St +10.5
4* Utah St. +5
6* TN -2
6* AZ +1.5
8* Mizzu -13
Dave Malinsky
4* Marquette -4.5
4* Pitt -19.5
4* Day/WVirg Under 128
5* Michigan State -16.5
5* Miami Florida +5.5
4* Phily -1
Big Al
At 3 pm, our 1st Round Shocker of the Year is on the Cornell Big Red plus the points over Missouri, as Cornell falls into 29-1, 33-13, 35-7, and 59-22 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 33-13 ATS angle. Since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985 (now, currently 65 teams) the worst-seeded teams' performances have correlated with whether their foe was off a win or loss to end the regular season. For purposes of our study, we'll discard the #1 vs. #16 games, as a #1 team has never lost SU to a #16 seed (and probably never will), since those games aren't very competitive. So, we'll just look at the teams seeded #13, #14, and #15. If the higher ranked team checked in off a win (as Missouri does today), then our lesser teams have excelled against the spread, but if our higher-ranked teams happened to lose their final regular season game, they've tended to snap back with a decent performance in Round 1. Indeed, if we look at the data going back to 1991, we find that teams seeded #13, #14 and #15 are a solid 33-13 ATS vs. a foe off a win, provided our 13-15 seeded team is also off a win. This is a great letdown spot for Missouri after it won the Big 12 Conference championship. That was the first time the Tigers won a post-season tournament since Norm Stewart's men won the Big Eight Tourney in 1993. So, even though today's game means a lot, we've seen throughout the years that teams -- especially those that were not favored to win their conference tourney from the outset (Missouri finished 3rd in the Big 12 Conference's regular season) -- do have letdowns in the opening round of the Tournament. I expect big things from Missouri later on (and wouldn't be surprised if it makes the Final Four), but just not today. NCAA 1st Round Shocker of the Year on Cornell.
Raging Bull
NBA:
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Houston Rockets under 193
Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder over 200
New York Knicks vs. Sacramento Kings over 225
Helmut
BC/USC over 137
Red Dog
4* USC OVER
Special K
20* Portland St.
Chris Jordan
1,000♦ UTAH UTES
200♦ WISCONSIN