Tom Stryker
5* Xavier
Triple Crown
5* Missouri
Young Gun
5* Fla St
SMTM Sports Picks
2* Oklahoma State +3
2* N. Dakota St. +10
CALIFORNIA SPORTS
4* ROCKETS UNDER
4* AUBURN
4* MISSOURI
4* TEMPLE UNDER
3* Southern California
3* Michigan State
3* Arizona Under
Al DeMarco
10 Dime - Temple
If you consulted my brackets, you saw I thought there were only a couple of legitimate first-round upsets by lower seeds: Western Kentucky, who upset Illinois as forecasted on Thursday, plus Temple and Arizona (who I used as a free pick today).
The Owls closed the season strong, winning 10 of their last 12, going 9-3 ATS. They carry a five-game winning streak both on the floor and versus the oddsmakers into this first-round game. Last year, as a 12 seed, many thought Temple had a chance to make a little noise, but it was bounced immediately from the tournament by Michigan State. That experience will pay dividends today.
Arizona State is not a physical team with 6-9 center Jeff Pendegraph providing its lone interior presence. Temple, conversely, can hammer foes down low and hit the boards hard with a deep rotation led by 7-1 Sergio Olmos and 6-9 Lavoy Allen, both of whom have played exceptional ball down the stretch.
The Sun Devils and Owls each have strong scorers in James Harden (20.8 ppg) and Dionte Christmas (19.8 ppg), respectively. While Harden is the better all-around player, he will be facing a Temple defense holding foes to 40 percent shooing from the field. Christmas must contend with Arizona State's matchup zone defense, which is different than the one former Temple coach John Chaney employed so successfully for years, but it is similar to that used by fellow Atlantic-10 member Richmond. Christmas broke out of a recent shooting slump by pumping in 29 points in the A-10 title game against Duquesne and 20 versus Xavier in the semifinals.
In last year's tournament, Temple had to travel across two time zones; this year it's Arizona State making the long distance journey from Tempe to Miami. And while the Owls have the 2008 Big Dance experience under their belts, this marks the Sun Devils first postseason outing in six years.
SPORTS UNLIMITED
7* MARQUETTE
3* Dayton
3* Arizona State
SCORE
400 MISSOURI
300 Oklahoma State
300 Temple
Chris James Sports
1* Marquette -5
Big Al
At 3 pm, our 1st Round Shocker of the Year is on the Cornell Big Red plus the points over Missouri, as Cornell falls into 29-1, 33-13, 35-7, and 59-22 ATS systems of mine. Let's take a look at our 33-13 ATS angle. Since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985 (now, currently 65 teams) the worst-seeded teams' performances have correlated with whether their foe was off a win or loss to end the regular season. For purposes of our study, we'll discard the #1 vs. #16 games, as a #1 team has never lost SU to a #16 seed (and probably never will), since those games aren't very competitive. So, we'll just look at the teams seeded #13, #14, and #15. If the higher ranked team checked in off a win (as Missouri does today), then our lesser teams have excelled against the spread, but if our higher-ranked teams happened to lose their final regular season game, they've tended to snap back with a decent performance in Round 1. Indeed, if we look at the data going back to 1991, we find that teams seeded #13, #14 and #15 are a solid 33-13 ATS vs. a foe off a win, provided our 13-15 seeded team is also off a win. This is a great letdown spot for Missouri after it won the Big 12 Conference championship. That was the first time the Tigers won a post-season tournament since Norm Stewart's men won the Big Eight Tourney in 1993. So, even though today's game means a lot, we've seen throughout the years that teams -- especially those that were not favored to win their conference tourney from the outset (Missouri finished 3rd in the Big 12 Conference's regular season) -- do have letdowns in the opening round of the Tournament. I expect big things from Missouri later on (and wouldn't be surprised if it makes the Final Four), but just not today. NCAA 1st Round Shocker of the Year on Cornell.
COLLEGE HOOPS HIGH ROLLER B-L-O-W-O-U-T
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons minus the points over Cleveland State
SportsKingz
MARQUETTE -4.5
ARIZONA ST. -5.5
FLORIDA ST. -3
OHIO ST. -3
PPP
4% Michigan State
4% Pittsburgh
4% Arizona state
4% Missouri
3% Utah State
Best Sports Picks
Utah State +5
Squarepicks
4* Minnesota +11.5
4* Utah/Oklahoma Over 200
4* Philadelphia/Golden State Over 225
DR BOB
2 Star Selection
**Michigan State (-16) over Robert Morris
Michigan State is 9-0 ATS after a loss recently, including 5-0 ATS this season, so I expect the Spartans to bounce-back from their upset loss to Ohio State and give a good effort in this game. My ratings favor Michigan State by 15 ½ points, but I’ll still lean with the Spartans at -17 or less and the Spartans would apply to a 42-13-4 ATS round 1 situation if they are a favorite of 16 points or less, so I’d make Michigan State a 2-Star Best Bet at -16 or less. My math model predicts 132 total points.
2 Star Selection
**Kansas (-9) over North Dakota State
I have some good reasons to bet Kansas in this game. The Jayhawks apply to an 82-29-3 ATS round 1 situation and they are likely to bounce back from their loss to Baylor with a good effort given their 11-1 ATS mark in recent years after a loss when not laying more than 12 points and 4-0 ATS record this season in all games after a loss (and they would have covered the other two had their been lines on those games). My ratings favor Kansas by 10 points, so the line is fair, but I’m not thrilled with the match-up, as the Jayhawks’ defense is designed to defend the paint (42% allowed on 2-point shots is among the best in the nation) more than it is designed to defend the 3-point arc (33.4% allowed is not much better than average). That could spell trouble against a good shooting North Dakota State team that has made 41.2% of their 3-point shots this season. The Bison also are among the nation’s best at taking care of the ball (just 11 turnovers per game) and a good shooting team that doesn’t turn the ball over isn’t easy to blowout. The Bison don’t play much defense though (45% FG allowed against a weak schedule) and they allowed a combined 54% shooting to the only two good teams they faced this season (Minnesota and USC). Kansas should score easily and I still like the Jayhawks based on the strong situation, but I’ll resist making them a Best Bet unless the line drops a little more. I’ll consider Kansas a Strong Opinion at -10 or less (a regular opinion at -10 ½ or -11) and I’d take the Jayhawks in a 2-Star Best Bet at -9 or less. My predicted total is 153 points, so I will lean with the Over.
Utah (pick) vs Arizona
It’s not unprecedented for a #12 seed to be a pick against a #5 seed, as there have actually been 3 #12 seeds that were favored in round 1 the last 10 years (they went 1-2 straight up). Arizona would have been favored by about 2 or 3 points over St. Mary’s, so any talk of the Wildcats not belonging here should be put to rest. Arizona is good enough to beat anyone if they play a little defense, as they have wins over Gonzaga, Kansas, UCLA, and Washington to their credit this year. Utah, however, also beat Gonzaga and they won 2 of 3 against a very good San Diego State team while splitting with BYU. Utah actually has a better record against the top 50 rated teams (5-5 straight up) than Arizona does (6-9) and my ratings favor Utah by 1 point. I have no opinion at pick, but I’d lean with Utah at +1 or more. My math model predicts 137 ½ total points.
Syracuse (-12) vs SF Austin
It’s possible that Syracuse could letdown for SF Austin after their emotional ride through the Big East tournament that featured 7 overtime periods, but their loss to Louisville in the finals should be enough to get the Orange refocused for this game. SF Austin played pretty well in two games against decent teams, losing by just 7 points at Texas A&M and beating a good North Dakota State team in 3 overtimes, and my ratings only favor Syracuse by 11.8 points. The opening line of 14 points was quickly pounded down to 12 points, which is about what it should be. I have no opinion on this game but I’d lean with SF Austin at +13 points or more and with Syracuse at -10 ½ or less. My predicted total is 130 points.
Louisville (-21) vs Morehead State
I mentioned in my analysis of the play in game how Morehead State has been underrated since Brandon Shingles took over the point guard duties in early January after playing sparingly in December after gaining eligibility. The Eagles won their Tuesday play in game rather easily to earn a rematch with Louisville, who beat Morehead 79-41 at home in November. Shingles did not play in that game and the Eagles were about 8 points worse on average then than they are now and they also made just 3 of their 19 3-point shots. I expect Morehead to be more competitive in this rematch, as my ratings favor Louisville by 18 ½ points, but #1 seeds are 11-1 ATS in round 1 when coming off a win and favored by 24 points or less. I have no opinion on this game, as the situation favors Louisville and the line value favors Morehead. My math model projects 129 total points.
Ohio State (-3) over Siena
Ohio State has the benefit of playing this game in Dayton and teams playing an NCAA Tournament game in their home state are a profitable 115-76 ATS over the years. Siena is a solid team, but their most impressive win of the season (determined by opponent rating and site) was at St. Joseph’s and the best team the Saints beat this season was Niagara – so Siena is not too much of a threat to beat Ohio State. Ohio State won 10 games against teams that are better than Siena and my ratings favor the Buckeyes by 5 points after giving them a few points for the site advantage. The Buckeyes also match up well with Siena, who doesn’t appear able to exploit Ohio State’s weakness, which is perimeter defense. The Buckeyes are good overall defensively (40.9% FG allowed), but they have allowed 35.2% 3-point shooting and 22 3-point attempts per game. Siena doesn’t look to take many 3-pointers (just 15 per game) and the Saints don’t make many either (just 33.6%), so Ohio State’s defense should be relatively better against a team like Siena that depends more on interior scoring – which the Buckeyes defend well. I’ll consider Ohio State a Strong Opinion in this game and I’ll also consider Over 143 points or less as a Strong Opinion since my math model predicts 148 total points in this game. Update Ohio State to a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 or less.
Pittsburgh (-20) vs East Tennessee State
Pittsburgh may be in a nasty mood after losing their first game in the Big East Tournament, but the Panthers were just 2-4 ATS as a favorite of 17 points or more this season (15-5 ATS in other games) and my ratings only favor them by just 18 ½ points. There are situations favoring both sides in this game so I’ll pass. My predicted total is 152 ½ points.
Tennessee (-2) vs Oklahoma State
Tennessee applies to a 47-13 ATS first round situation while Oklahoma State applies to a negative 9-31-1 ATS situation. Despite the technical analysis favoring the Vols, I don’t like the idea of going against a hot Oklahoma State team that is 8-2 straight up and 9-1 ATS since sharp-shooter Keiton Page (41% 3-pointers) joined the starting lineup, including a win over Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament. My ratings favor Oklahoma State by a point and the line value favoring the Cowboys cancels out the situations favoring the Volunteers. I have no opinion on this game and my math model predicts 157 total points.
Boston College (+2 ½) over Usc
USC finally played up to their potential in winning the Pac-10 tournament and now the Trojans are rightfully favored in a first round game when it didn’t look like they were going to make the tournament a week ago. USC is indeed better than Boston College, but the Trojans apply to a negative 4-22-1 ATS subset of a 42-70-1 ATS first round situation while Boston College applies to a 24-3 ATS situation. When BC plays well they are good enough to win at North Carolina and beat Duke, so they will win this game if Tyrese Rice plays his best. But, Trojans’ coach Tim Floyd is good at devising defensive schemes to defend star players and he has some very good defenders to make those schemes work. My ratings favor USC by 3 points and I certainly don’t want to give up any line value, so I’ll consider Boston College a strong opinion at +2 ½ and a regular opinion at +2 and I’ll take BC as a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 or more.
West Virginia (-9) vs Dayton
Dayton is good enough to beat Marquette 89-75 and to beat Xavier 71-58 and the Flyers only lost 7 games all season, but 5 of those 7 losses were by 11 points or more and West Virginia has a tendency to win big when they win (20 of their 23 wins were by 10 points or more). The Mountaineers can also be upset, as they lost as a favorite 7 times this season, although all of those losses were to teams that are better than Dayton (except perhaps Cincinnati). My ratings favor West Virginia by 9 ½ points in this game, but Dayton applies to a 99-36-3 ATS situation that is better than a 94-49-4 ATS situation that applies to West Virginia. This one is too tough to call, as it could be another West Virginia blowout win or another Dayton upset. My predicted total is 123 ½ points, so I will lean with the under.
Cornell (+13) over Missouri
Teams that can shoot the ball from the outside are relatively better against superior teams since shooting the ball has very little to do with how big, fast, or strong a player is. If you can shoot, you can shoot regardless of the level of opposition. Missouri is a pressing team that swarms the ball and Cornell should be able to find some open outside shots when they don’t turn the ball over (Missouri forces 19 turnovers per game). The Big Red are average at taking care of the ball and they will turn it over against the Tigers’ pressure, but they will also be able to make their open 3-point shots (41.5% 3-point shooting as a team) and that could make it tough for the Tigers to pull away in a game in which they may not be completely focused on. Teams that win a major conference tournament tend to let up as a big favorite in round 1 of the NCAA, as they bask in the glow of their recent success and start thinking about who they are likely to play down the line in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, round 1 favorites of 9 points or more that are coming off a win and seeded #3 or worse are just 12-24 ATS over the years. My ratings favor Missouri by 13 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll consider Cornell a Strong Opinion in this game at +13 points or more and a regular opinion at +12 ½. My predicted total is 151 points and I’ll also lean over at 147 points or less.
Marquette (-4 ½) vs Utah State
Marquette is just 1-5 straight up since the season ending injury to point guard Dominic James (including the game against U Conn after getting hurt in the 5th minute), but those losses were to very good teams Connecticut, Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse and Villanova (on a last second shot). The public was certainly correct in betting the line on this game down from an opening number of 7 points to 4 ½ points, as my ratings (using Marquette’s games without James) favors the Eagles by 4 ½ points. Utah State is 30-4 straight up for the season, but they’ve only faced 3 good teams all season and they didn’t play very well in those games. The Aggies lost by 5 points on a neutral site against BYU (not a bad loss), only beat Utah by 2 points at home when the Utes were without their point guard (Utah was a few points worse without him this season) and lost 64-75 at St. Mary’s when the Gaels were without star guard Patti Mills. Marquette still has more talent than Utah State even without James and the Eagles’ compensated offensive efficiency has actually improved without James, who made just 42% of his shots and just 28% from 3-point range. New starting point guard Maurice Acker is an even worse shooter, but he doesn’t shoot much (4 or 5 shots per game) and his shooting percentage has improved to 43% since taking over for James. More importantly, the absence of James and Acker’s reluctance to shoot the ball means that more of the Eagles shots are taken by leading scorers McNeal, Matthews and Hayward – who are all better shooters than James was. There are situations favoring both sides in this game and I’ll pass. My predicted total is 138 ½ points.
Florida State (-2 ½) vs Wisconsin
Florida State is a slightly better team than Wisconsin, but the only team that Seminoles beat all season as good as Wisconsin in Clemson (not counting North Carolina playing without Ty Lawson since UNC without Lawson isn’t a great team). Wisconsin doesn’t have many impressive wins either, as their toughest game that they won was at Michigan (their wins over Illinois and Ohio State were both at home). These are two pretty evenly matched teams and my ratings favor Florida State by 2 points, which is too close to the line to favor either side. There are also tournament situations favoring both sides in this game, so I have no opinion. I would lean with Florida State at -1 or better and my predicted total is 121 ½ points.
Portland State (+10 ½) over Xavier
Portland State certainly won’t be intimidated by Xavier after losing at Washington by just 1 point and winning straight up at Gonzaga. The close loss at Washington is legit, but Gonzaga was coming off a crushing come-from-ahead loss to Connecticut and were in a huge letdown situation when they faced the Vikings. Using all games for each team I would favor Xavier by 11 ½ points in this game and I get the Musketeers by 10 points using only games against decent competition (which helps Portland State since the games against Washington and Gonzaga play a bigger role in that smaller sample of games). It looks like the a line of 10 ½ points is about right, but Portland State’s barrage of 3-point shooting (25 attempts per game at a good 38% success) matches up pretty well with a Xavier team that is very good overall defensively (38.9% FG allowed) but only a bit better than average defending the 3 point arc (33.2% allowed to teams that combine to average 34.1% for the season). I’ll lean slightly with Portland State at +10 points or more and my predicted total is 139 ½ points.
Erin Rynning
Playmaker TWolves/Rockets Under
Regular
Ok City
Jazz/Ok City Under
Michael Smiley
Washington - Siena
Lincoln - Dayton
Hamilton - Liousville
Jackson - Az State
Blazer
4* Marquette
3* Arizona
3* Tennessee
Fastbreak
4* Arizona State
3* Wake Forest
3* USC
3* Florida State
Roundball
4* Wake Forest
3* Kansas
3* Louisville
3* Clippers
3* Sixers
Evan Altemus
4* Port St
4* USC
Overthespread
40 Dimes on Utah
35 Dimes on Florida State
Teddy June
10* Cornell
10* Boston College
10* Utah Utes