Computer Crushers Guaranteed Selections
NCAA TOURNAMENT ROUND ONE PLAY OF THE YEAR
Michigan St -15.5
Seabass
Early
20 Temple under
30 ETSU
100 Mizzou
Steam (100*) USC/BC under
JIM HURLEY
ADD
2* Boston College (+2½) over USC
2* Tulsa (+6) over Auburn
2* Wisconsin (+2½) over Florida State
2* San Diego St (-5) over Kansas State
STU FEINER
Cornell (+12') vs Missouri (146') @ Boise
Cornell is back in the Big Dance for a second straight year after bowing to Stanford in the opening round in 2008. Meanwhile, Missouri is dancing for the first time in six years and the Big Red will draw upon their experience from a year ago to control tempo in this one and stay inside this big number. Look for Cornell to frustrate the Tigers, who did not play their best basketball outside of Columbia this season. I like DeMarre Carroll’s game, but I see the Tigers getting flustered by Cornell’s patient and deliberate attack. This is a good Ivy League team that with Ryan Wittman (son of former NBA player and coach Randy Wittman) can drain some treys. The Big Red are 16-8 ATS as a dog and have covered 12 of their last 19 non-conference games. Coach Steve Donahue and the Big Red were happy to make it to the party last year, this time they want to move on. They won’t claim the outright, but Cornell will prove to be a pesky thorn as no way Missouri covers this sizeable spread.
CORNELL (+12') 2500 Dime High Roller
Portland State (+10') vs Xavier (135) @ Boise
The Big Sky Conference champs have won at Gonzaga and lost by just one at Washington this year and Portland State will stay inside this number against an Xavier club that dropped two of its last three and went just 5-5 SU in its last 10. The Muskateers are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven away from home and while they’re a nice club, they’re missing a key componant as they don’t have a reliable point guard to orchestrate the team’s offense. The same cannot be said of the Vikings with senior floor general Jeremiah Dominguez, one of four serious three-point threats on the team. Andre Murray can also drain the trey and Portland State made 309 from behind the arc this year. They’ve won six straight overall and are 3-0 ATS this year on seven or more days rest. The Vikings will give Xavier all it can handle in staying inside this price tonight.
PORTLAND STATE (+10') 2500 Dime High Roller
Roert Morris (+16') vs Michigan State (132) @ Minneapolis
Quite frankly this is too many points for this erratic Michigan State offense to cover and Robert Morris will stay inside this bloated number. Michigan State just hasn’t been the same since leader Raymar Morgan went down with walking pneumonia in mid-January. He’s scored seven or fewer points in six of his eight games since back and clearly is not the player he was before he got sick. MSU is just 4-10 ATS when laying more than 12 ½ points on a neutral court and this guard-oriented Colonial team has won five straight on the scoreboard and has held eight straight foes to 64 points or less. Senior do-everything guard Jeremy Chappell will bring his best to this one and the 24-win Colonials will keep this one close.
ROBERT MORRIS (+16') 2500 Dime High Roller
C-Stars Sports
1000 Units Top Play Florida St over Wisconsin
1000 Units Southern California vs Boston College under the total
1000 Units Top Play Siena vs Ohio St. over the total
Kelso
25 San Diego St
10 Miami Fl
5 OSU
5 Ariz
5 Boston College
NBA
5 Spurs
4 Jazz
3 Bobcats
RON RAYMOND
5* Wake Forest -7.5
Scott Rickenbach
2* (Top Play) Wisconsin Badgers (+) vs Florida State
In a 12 vs 5 match-up, you would not expect to see a line this low. Also, Florida State won 25 games this season while the Badgers won just 19. Additionally, the ACC is held in higher regard than the Big Ten. So, what’s with this line? It’s all about the match-ups! Wisconsin, under Coach Bo Ryan is very difficult to prepare for when you’re not use to seeing them. That is the concern for Florida State in this match-up. No matter how much you try to emulate what their offense does – in practice – it’s still not the same as dealing with it in live game action. We have a strong feeling here that the Badgers offense is going to give Florida State a lot of trouble. So, both defenses come in, deservedly, receiving a lot of respect. However, only one, Wisconsin, is likely to be successful in their match-ups here. The Seminoles defense is going to get thrown out of whack by the unusual way in which the Badgers offense operates. It’s unconventional and it can be a headache for opponents. Wisconsin has built up some nice momentum heading into the Big Dance. After an ugly 2-6 run in January, they rebounded nicely and ended up in fourth place in the Big Ten. They play a very stingy man-to-man defense and they ended up with some of the top defensive numbers in the country. Their defense is absolutely going to frustrate the Noles in this match-up. Note that the Badgers went 14-1 this season when they limited their opponents to 60 points or less and we can honestly see that coming here. Even though the Seminoles have good size, Marcus Landry is a very strong post defender. Also, on the perimeter, the Badgers have frustrated opponents into making just 32% of their shots from three point land this season. We look for Coach Ryan to hold a significant “X’s and O’s edge” over Florida State Coach Leonard Hamilton. Also, this is the Noles first trip to the Big Dance in over ten years and they just don’t have true “tournament experience” under their belts. Also, guard Toney Douglas is a senior and a fantastic scorer but, other than Douglas and Uche Echefu, the Seminoles rely very heavily on freshman and sophomores. This is a weakness as they face a Badgers team that went to the Sweet Sixteen last season. The Badgers have two juniors, Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon, as well as two seniors, Joe Krabbenhoft and Landry, that they rely heavily on. There is a wealth of experience with these players and their sophomore players also gained valuable experience with last year’s post-season run. The Noles will be the “trendy choice” here but when you factor in tactical match-ups as well as experience, Florida State is very likely to get frustrated here and we foresee a “traditional” 12 vs 5 upset here! Play Wisconsin plus the points as a Top Play selection.
EZ Winners
Late card
5* Wisconsin +2.5
3* Cleveland State +8
3* Boston College +2.5
THE GOLD SHEET'S HOOP LATE PHONE SERVICE
NBA:
CHARLOTTE +1½ over Toronto
OKLAHOMA CITY +5over Utah
College:
CLEVELAND STATE +8 over Wake Forest
FLORIDA STATE -3 over Wisconsin
PORTLAND STATE +10½ over Xavier
Scott Spreitzer
Arizona at Utah
Play: Arizona
Many argued this week that Arizona's resume does not deserve a Big Dance Invite. That may be true. But now that they're here, the only thing that matters is the task at hand. Arizona is a bad matchup for the Utah Utes. First of all, for Utah to win against decent competition, they have to hit from the perimeter. While they ranked 45th in the nation from behind the arc, overall, the Utes were nothing special in this category in games played away from home, hitting 33.8%, which would have them ranked 176th. This is troublesome for Utah because I do believe 7'2 senior center Luke Nevill is in for a battle tonight. Nevill takes up a lot of space and he is a decent talent, but he is not the quickest or most athletic big man. The problem is, he'll have to matchup with Arizona forward Jordan Hill. At 6'10, Hill is at least in Nevill's neighborhood. But Hill is much quicker and can harrass Nevill on both ends of the court with his quickness advantage. Hill and fellow forward Chase Budinger will both be playing for pay next season. But that's not the whole story. The Wildcats are led by a highly underrated PG in junior Nic Wise. He's outstanding on the perimeter and he's a tenacious defender who can give the Utah ball-handlers fits. And instead of saying the U of A doesn't belong, let's take a look at some of the teams they have BEATEN this season. The list includes: UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State, Houston, Kansas, and Gonzaga, all of which are playing in the postseason. The 'Cats will not be intimidated one bit in this one and I believe they're set to deliver a public shocker. The Wildcats are my opening round SHOCKER GOM.
John Ryan
Buffalo Sabres
Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Buffalo as they host Philadelphia slated to start at 7:35 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 125-88 making 35.4 units since 1996. Play on any team against the money line off a road loss against a division rival and with the game taking place on Friday nights. Buffalo is in a solid role noting they are 91-68 against the money line (+27.3 Units) against explosive offensive teams scoring 3+ goals/game in the 2nd half of the season since 1996. Philadelphia in a miserable role noting they are 106-111 against the money line (-52.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive unders since 1996. Buffalo HC Lindy Ruff is a solid 139-100 against the money line (+40.0 Units) against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game in the 2nd half of the season. Most dominant is the fact that the AiS shows a 90% probability that Buffalo will get 32 to 36 shots on goal. Note that Philadelphia is 21-47 losing 28.6 units over the past 3 seasons when they allow their opponents to get 32 to 36 SOG. Philly is fading a bit having lost 3 of the last 4 and the most recent hated divisional rival Rangers by a 4-1 blowout. Take Buffalo.
Larry Ness
20* 1st Round Total GOY (12-5 or 70.6% run s/Mar 3)
My 20* 1st Round NCAA Total of the Year is on USC/BC Over at 7:20 ET. USC went into a "free-fall" this past February, losing SIX of seven games. That left Tim Floyd's team with just ONE path to the "Big Dance" and that was to win the Pac 10 tourney. That's EXACTLY what the Trojans did this past weekend in LA. The Trojans easily dispatched of Cal 79-65 on Thursday, upset UCLA 65-55 on Friday (had lost both regular season meetings to the Bruins) and then overcame a 15-point halftime deficit by outscoring ASU 42-24 in the second half of Saturday's championship game, for a 66-63 win. The 10th-seed Trojans (21-12) get a first round matchup with No. 7 seed Boston College, which went 22-11 this year, highlighted by notable upsets of then-No.1 North Carolina at Chapel Hill on Jan 4 (Eagles won 85-78 as three-TD underdogs!) and 80-74 at home over Duke on Feb 15. BC almost upset Duke a for a second time this year but fell 66-65 last Friday night in the ACC quarterfinals, after leading 29-22 at the half. Who knows how good USC may have been this year if OJ Mayo (20.7-4.5-3.3) had stayed and if fellow freshman Jefferson (12.1-6.3), who wasn't drafted, hadn't hired an agent which prevented his return? As is, the Trojans are not a deep team but their seven-man rotation is quite impressive. Lewis (14.1-3.2) and Hackett (12.5-5-4.2-4.7) are both 6-5 and form an outstanding guard duo. The 6-9 Gibson (14.3-9.4) has had his best season as a Trojan, while a pair of 6-7 freshman, DeRozan (13.6-5.7) and Washington (6.1-4.1) have had their moments. DeRozan 'EXPLODED' during the Pac 10 tourney, averaging 21.0 PPG and 9.0 RPG. Johnson (3.6) was playing regularly in the backcourt in the early going but Floyd's insertion of Simmons (2.0) into the staring lineup towards the end of the year, was credited with stabilizing the team, as Simmons' perimeter 'D' is outstanding. BC is generally a young team, although guard Rice (17.1-3.9-5.4) leads the way and has had a superb senior year. The rest of the starting lineup has great size, as 6-5 swingman Sanders (12.8-4.8) is joined by the 6-8 Trapani (13.5-6.6), the 6-6 Raji (9.8-6.1) and the 6-10 Southern (6.1-5.1). Joining the mix are freshman guard Jackson (7.1-3.2), the 6-7 Roche (3.6) and guard Paris (3.5), who came out of nowhere to score 15 points in last Friday's one-point loss to Duke. Both teams defend the perimeter pretty well, as BC allows opponents to make just 32.7 percent of its threes, with USC is allowing 33.7 percent. I was all set to make a big play on BC is this game (catching USC off its upset win of the Pac 10 tourney) but I believe the better play is to take the 'over.' Matchups often dictate how teams will play and while USC is said to have a tough 'D,' I see plenty of flaws, as this team is often caught "out of position." As for BC, I believe the Eagles will have more than a little trouble handling Gibson and DeRozan inside plus Lewis and Hackett's size could also be an issue on the perimeter. Note that in BC's two biggest wins this year, at North Carolina and home to Duke, the point totals in those games finished at 163 and 154 respectively. That's an average of 158.5 PPG, which is more than three TDs higher than the opening total on this game. 1st Round Total of the Year 20* USC/Bos Coll Over.
Las Vegas Insider-CBB (38-25 or 60.3% CBB run s/Mar 3)-Night
My Las Vegas Insider is on Arizona at 7:10 ET. This is the 49th meeting between Arizona and Utah but the first since 2005. Arizona HAD to be one of the last teams into the tournament, as the Wildcats somehow are 'dancing' for the 25th consecutive year. However, the team's at-large bid left a handful of other schools claiming they were more deserving. It's an easy argument to make. The Wildcats were just 9-9 in the Pac 10's regular season and the school's 68-56 loss to ASU in the Pac 10 tourney (Wildcats lost all three games with the Sun Devils TY) dropped Arizona to 19-13 overall, with FIVE losses in its last six games. However, the committee will point to non-conference wins over Gonzaga and Kansas plus Pac 10 wins over UCLA, USC and Washington to make its case. In the end, the Wildcats are 'in,' so where do we go from here? Utah was part of a three-way first-place tie in the MWC (with BYU and New Mexico) but it was the Utes who won the postseason tourney, edging SDSU 52-50 in the title game. The 7-2 Nevill (16.9-9.1) starts with the 6-10 Tiillie (3.1-4.5) up front but Tillie gives way early to the 6-8 Green (10.4.9). The backcourt is deep, with starters Borha (11.7-3.3), Brown (9.4-5.2-3.2) and Drca (7.8-3.5 APG). Kepkay (10.1) gets plenty of minutes off the bench. Utah is a solid club but the Wildcats own the three best players in this game. The 6-10 Hill (18.5-11.0) is an NBA-talent (Nevill really isn't), the 6-7 Budinger (17.9-6.3-3.4) is capping a terrific four-year career, plus junior PG Wise (15.1-2.4-4.6) is BY FAR, the best backcourt performer in this game! The 6-6 Horne (6.8-5.2) and freshman guard Fogg (6.2) round out the starting-five, while Johnson (6.2) is the only reserve of much note. I don't foresee the Wildcats going too far in this tourney but I do see them winning here and justifying their selection. Las Vegas Insider on Arizona.
RINKPLAY SPORTS
3* Chicago Blackhawks -195
2* New York Islanders/Carolina Hurricanes Over 5.5
Free Play: Philadelphia Flyers -110
SMTM Sports Picks
3* Arizona/Utah Under 135
3* Spurs -3
2* Ohio State -2
2* Wake Forest -7
2* Miami Florida +6