Tom Styker
5* Louisville -9
Donnie Black
TWolves / Cavs Under 190
Maddux Sports
Basketball
3 units on Michigan State -1
4 units on Gonzaga +8.5
3 units on Oklahoma -1
Hockey
3 units on Edmonton +145
Larry Ness
Eastern Conference GOW on the Atl Hawks (7*)
The Hawks snuck into the postseason last year with the worst record of any of the 16 playoff participants but then took the Celtics (who would go on to win the title) to seven games in the first round (home team won all seven games). The Hawks won't have to worry about sneaking into this year's playoff field, as they enter this game at 42-30 (No. 4 seed) and four games clear of Miami and Philly, which are tied for the 5th-best record. Atlanta's headed for an opening round series in which the Hawks will own home court advantage. The Celtics are 54-19 on the season, a full five games behind the Cavs for the East's best record and after an 84-82 loss at Orlando on Wednesday, find themselves percentage points behind the Magic in the race for the East's second-best record. Pierce (20.2-5.8-3.7) and Ray Allen (18.4-3.5-2.8) have remained healthy all season, posting similar numbers to last year. However, KG's (15.8-8.5) production is slightly down and he's missed 16 games. He was limited to 17 minutes on Wednesday, as he works his way back from a knee injury. Rondo (11.9-5.3-8.5) continues to be bothered by his ankle (probable here but maybe limited minutes as well) plus the Celtics continue to play without reserves Tony Allen (7.8), Leon Powe (7.5-4.8) and , Brian Scalabrine (3.5). Then of course there is the "Curious Case of Stephon Marbury." Marbury joined the team at the beginning of March, with Boston sitting at 47-12. Now it's not all Marbury's fault but as Rivers tries to "work him into the rotation," the Celtics have gone 7-7 SU and 4-10 ATS. Marbury is averaging 2.7 PPG, while shooting 27.9 percent (2-of-13 on threes) and can't even spell the words defense or desire. The Hawks are led by the terrific backcourt duo of Johnson (21.7-4.4-5.9) and Bibby (14.9-3.6-5.0), with Flip Murray (11.7) becoming one of the league's most solid backcourt reserves. Williams (14.0-6.4) is still out at the small forward position but Evans (6.9) is playing well in his stead (has averaged 10.3 PPG over the last seven games), joining Smith (15.0-7.2) and Horford (11.5-9.2) in the starting frontcourt. The Hawks took advantage of a seven-game homestand from 3/7-19 to go 7-0 SU and ATS, before losing 102-96 at Cleveland. The team returned home after that one-game trip to beat the T-wolves and then Wednesday, lost at home to the Spurs, 102-92. This game vs Boston is pretty big, as the Hawks have lost two close ones to Boston this year, 103-102 in Boston on Nov 12 and 88-85 here in Atlanta on Dec 17. The Hawks were able to beat the Celtics in all three home playoff games last year and this Celtic team is not playing at anywhere near the same level as it was last April (plus is far from 100 percent healthy). A word to the Hawks. If not now, when? Eastern Conference GOW on the Atl Hawks (7*)
Revenge Game of the Month on the Dal Mavericks (9*)
The Mavs got some help last night from the Blazers, who beat the Suns. That gives Dallas a four-game lead over the Suns in the loss column (3 1/2 overall) for the eighth and final playoff spot in the West. The 43-28 Mavs are still capable of moving up from that No. 8 seed though, as Denver, Houston and New Orleans all have 26 losses, while Portland and Utah have 27. Speaking of the Nuggets, they are 46-26 and one game ahead of the Blazers and 1 1/2 up on the Jazz, in the Northwest Division. Denver grabbed an important road win at New Orleans on Wednesday, winning 101-88, despite Nene (14.6-7.8) not palying. The undersized center is likely to miss again tonight (he's appealing his two-game suspension) and that's not good news, as Denver's road win on Wednesday was just the team's SECOND road win in nine games (since Feb 20). Anthony (22.3-6.8) and Billups (18.4-6.3 APG) are the team leaders but Denver's depth is a big reason the team's 46-26 mark is its best record through 72 games since joining the NBA back in the mid 70s. Smith (14.5-3.8), Jones (5.5) and Carter (5.3-4.7 APG) have all contributed in the backcourt, while Kleiza (9.7-3.9), Andersen (6.4-5.9) and Balkman (5.5-4.2) have done fine jobs in the frontcourt. Andersen, in particular has been very good as of late, averaging 10.0 PPG and 7.1 RPG over the last seven games.The Mavs got Terry (19.9-3.6 APG) back sooner than expected from his broken hand (missed just eight games) but then lost Howard (18.0-4.9) to that bothersome ankle problem (return unknown). Dampier (5.6-7.1) missed two games with a knee injury but was back on the court Wednesday, playing 23 minutes (eight points and 10 boards) in the team's 128-106 home win over the Warriors. Dallas opened 0-4 at home but Wednesday's win gave them 26 wins in their last 30 home games. Nowitzki (25.5-8.3) continues to produce night in and night out, while Kidd (9.2-6.3-8.3), Bass (8.6-4.5) and Wright (7.8) have all been pretty good. Wright is stepping up with Howard out, as he's averaged 11.6 PPG over his last nine games. The Nuggets are 3-0 vs the Mavs this year, winning three-point and two-point decisions in Denver plus winning by 10 in Dallas, back on Dec 15. The Nuggets will attempt to sweep the season series from the Mavs tonight, for the first time since the Dallas franchise began play in 1980. As Lee Corso loves to say, "not so fast!" Revenge Game of the Month on the Dal Mavericks (9*)
Weekly Wipeout Winner Kansas (7.5*)
Michigan St was the Big 10's best team this year (at 15-3, the Spartans won the regular season title by a four-game margin) but how much does that really mean? Purdue (Big 10 tourney champ) was no match for U Conn last night and I see the Spartans bowing out tonight vs Kansas. Kansas can claim to be the defending champ but with all five starters gone from last year's team (plus Sasha Kaun), it's in name only! However, Bill Self's team accomplished quite a bit this year, winning its FIFTH straight Big 12 regular season title, with a 14-2 league mark. Collins (18.9-5.0 APG) has been brilliant all season (averaged just 9.3-3.1 LY) and the improvement of the 6-11 Aldrich (14.8-11.0) is nothing short of remarkable (2.8-3.0 LY). Three freshman have been major contributors, guard Taylor (9.8) plus the Morris twins. The 6-8 Marcus averages 7.5-4.8 and the 6-9 Markieff, 4.7-4.4. Sophomore guards Reed (6.6) and Morningstar (6.6) have been solid, while 6-5 JUCO swingman Little (4.8-3.3) has been a good addition since getting on the court in January. There's no denying Tom Izzo's tourney record but I don't think his team is all that good. Lucas (14.6-4.5 APG) is a talented guard by he's no Collins. The 6-7 Morgan (10.7-5.5) should have been the team's best player this year but he's been less than 100 percent, almost the entire year. The 6-10 Suton (9.4-8.0) is a decent player but again, he's no Aldrich. The 6-8 Roe (6.0-5.3), the 6-8 Gray (3.4-3.1) and the 6-6 Green (2.8-3.1) round out the frontcourt contributors. Joining Lucas in the backcourt is fellow starter Walton (5.3-2.3-3.2) plus Allen (9.0) and Summers (8.3-3.2). Michigan St easily handled Kansas back on Jan 10, jumping out to a 37-18 halftime lead in a 72-60 win. However, that game was at The Palace of Auburn Hills, hardly a neutral site. Lucas had 22 points in that game, while Morgan had 13-8 but note that Collins countered with 25 points (despite shooting 2-of-8 on threes), while Aldrich had 14-11. Kansas is a much better team now and all year, MSU has been known to throw in some 'clunkers.' The Spartans lost at home to Northwestern (?) and Penn St plus was embarrassed by a mediocre Ohio St team (just ask Siena) in the Big 10 tourney, losing 82-70. The Buckeyes shot 53.2 percent and scored 82 points in that game, vs a Michigan St team known for its defense (63.1 PPG allowed / 41.4 FG percentage). Moragn had just six points against the Buckeyes but did open with 16 points vs Robert Morris. However, in MSU's second round win over USC, Morgan shot 0-for-4 in 17 minutes (three points / two rebounds). Kansas can score (76.8 PPG) and its defense is pretty darn good, allowing opponents to make just 38.2 percent (5th-best in the nation). Collins has scored 57 points and handed out 10 assists in the first two games of this year's tourney, while Aldrich has 36 points and 33 rebounds. That duo plus a solid supporting cast will be too much for the overrated Big 10 regular season champs. Weekly Wipeout Winner Kansas (7.5*)
PERFECT STORM on Gonzaga (9*)
Roy Williams has been back in Carolina for six years, going 170-37 (.821). He enters this Sweet 16 game at 588-138 (.810) in his 21-years as a head coach. Not bad. Well how about Gonzaga's Mark Few? He's in his 10th year at Gonzaga and will enter tonight's game with a 10-year mark of 264-65 (.802), with the only school he's ever led. Carolina is college basketball 'royalty' but "the little school from Spokane" is in its 11th straight NCAA tourney (10 under Few) and 5th Sweet 16. The Tar Heels had an easy time with Radford, as PG Ty Lawson (16.1-2.7-6.5) rested his sore toe. Lawson returned to score 23 points and hand out six assist vs LSU, as North Carolina won, 84-70. However, Roy Williams' team led LSU only 67-63 at the seven-minute mark, before breaking the game open late. Lawson is expected to play again here but no one knows for sure the condition of his toe. Joining him in the backcourt is Ellington (15.7-4.8-2.7) and on the wing, it's the 6-6 Green (13.2-4.9). Last year's national p-o-y, the 6-9 Hansbough (21.2-8.1) is joined up front by the 6-9 Thompson (10.9-6.0). Carolina is not as deep as in years past, as right now, only 6-10 freshman Davis (6.7-6.7) and senior guard Frasor (2.7) are getting much playing time. The Bulldogs struggled early on vs Akron in round one but pulled away for an easy 13-point win (margin could have been greater). They then were life-and-death with Western Ky (won at the buzzer, 83-81) but as we've come to learn these last two years, those Hilltoppers can sure play. Gonzaga is not deep either but the team has quite a six-man rotation. PG Pargo (10.1-3.5-5.0) is a terrific leader and his three fellow guards are match up 'nightmares' for most teams. Bouldin (13.8-4.1-3.5) and Gray (9.2-3.3) are both 6-5, while Downs (9.5-4.6) checks in at 6-8. Two 6-11 players comprise the team's frontcourt, Heytvelt (14.9-6.7) and Daye (12.8-6.7). Carolina was the AP's preseason No. 1 team and spent more time atop that poll than any team in the nation, although Louisville took the nation's No. 1 ranking into the tourney. It should be noted though, that entering the tourney, North Carolina was just 11-19 ATS, before covering both of its first two NCAA games. The Tar Heels entered this year's "Big Dance" on a 2-9 ATS slide (since Feb 9) and on the year, were just 1-5 ATS as a single-digit favorite (lone cover was a win at Duke, as a two-point choice!). Meanwhile, Gonzaga has lost just one game the last two seasons (53-12 record) by more than 10 points! That was an 'ugly' 68-50 loss to Memphis on Feb 7, which by the way, is the team's ONLY loss since the calendar changed to 2009 (20-1). It may come as a surprise to some that North Carolina allows 72.3 PPG (the most of any ACC team), while Gonzaga has held its opponents to 61.9 PPG and to 37.2 percent on FG attempts (No. 2 in the nation!). These two schools met back in the 2006-07 season in the Preseason NIT tourney and Gonzaga won that game, 82-74. Think that game and result is not relevant? Think again. Bouldin, Heytvelt and Pargo all played on that Gonzaga team, each scoring in double digits while combining for 49 points. Participating in that game for Carolina were Ellington, Green, Hansbough, Lawson and Thompson. Those names sound familiar? They should, as the above group will be North Carolina's starting-five tonight! Take the points! PERFECT STORM on Gonzaga (9*).
Steven Budin
25 DIME - SYRACUSE
Dave Malinsky
5* Arizona / Louisville Under
4* Michigan St
4* Minn / Cleve Under
4* Milw / Orlando Under
ADAM MEYER
Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Nuggets will be gunning for their 7th win in 8 games tonight against Dallas. They have beaten the Mavericks in al 3 previous meetings this season and have averaged 101.7 PPG against them. Even without Nene (suspended) Denver still seems to have Dallas’ number . Dallas continues to lack the will to play tough defense against teams like Denver who can both run the floor and shoot well from the outside.
4' Units Denver Nuggets +5
Louisville vs. Arizona
6 Units Louisville -8.5
Steve Liebman
North Carolina vs. Gonzaga
Neither of these teams plays a slow-down brand of basketball. They combine to score 170 PPG-and a lot of those games each team played were against opponents who DID play a slower style of hoops hoping to keep the games close. Even if the ‘Heels’ Ty Lawson is not at 100% his presence still means UNC will push the ball up court even more than they have to date in the tournament. Both teams shoot 48% from the field. Look for a running and gunning type of game from these two teams tonight.
5 Units Over 162
Stephen Nover
New Orleans -5
Not only is there a huge talent gap between these two teams, but the spot is ripe for the Hornets.The Knicks are mentally down knowing that once again they won't be making the post-season. They have lost six in a row, with four coming at home. The Knicks are allowing an average of 115 points during this stretch.The Hornets rank among the top six in scoring defense and defensive field goal percentage. They have held their past 15 foes to an average of less than 92 points per game.Chris Paul should have a monster game. The Knicks are hurting at guard. Chris Duhon has disappeared and Nate Robinson suffered an ankle injury on Wednesday.
New Orleans at New York Under 207
Chris Paul gets all the attention when the subject of the New Orleans Hornets is brought up.But the Hornets are a pretty darn good defensive club. They rank fourth in scoring defense and sixth in defensive field goal percentage.The Hornets have held their last 15 opponents to an average of 91.8 points per game.The Knicks can score points, but they have point guard problems. Chris Duhon hit the wall weeks ago. He's not playing nearly as well as he did earlier this season and Nate Robinson suffered an ankle injury in the Knicks' previous game on Wednesday.The Hornets' offense is down minus Peja Stojakovic and Tyson Chandler. New Orleans is averaging only 90.7 points in its last seven games.
Milwaukee +12
The Bucks are clinging on life support for a playoff berth. So they should play hard, especially since Orlando embarrassed them at home, 106-80, in Milwaukee recently.That loss had to really bother Bucks hard-nosed coach Scott Skiles. The Bucks catch Orlando in a letdown spot.Orlando is off a huge victory against Boston on Wednesday, 84-82. That victory not only clinched the Southeast Division for the Magic, but also moved them into the No. 2 seed behind Cleveland, who they are not going to catch. The win also eclipsed Orlando's win mark from last season.The last time Orlando played Boston on March 8, the Magic lost at Detroit in its next game, 98-94. The time before that when the Magic played Boston, which was on Jan. 22, they lost in their next game at Miami, 103-97.I'm certainly not recommending a money-line play on the underdog Bucks. But Milwaukee is averaging 99.1 points this month and forcing more than 16 turnovers per game. Remember, the Magic don't have their regular point guard, Jameer Nelson.The Bucks have the motivation. They should be able to hang within this big number.
Oklahoma City +5.5
The Thunder usually can be counted on for a good effort when on the road where they have covered 63 percent of the time this season.Oklahoma City has covered the number in five of its past six road matchups. The Thunder should be primed for a strong effort having been idle since Tuesday.Toronto is off home wins versus the Clippers and Bucks. The last time Toronto won three games in a row was the beginning of the season.Chris Bosh has personal distractions and point guard Jose Calderon is dealing with a sore hamstring and a dislocated right ring finger.
The Consensus Group Guaranteed Selections
9000* NBA NON CONFERENCE PLAY OF THE YEAR
Toronto -5
HalfBets
7* Michigan St -1
Teddy Covers
Big Ticket: Gonzaga +8.5
Master Sports
4'* Hornets
Billy Coleman
5* Sac
4* Arizona Over
3* Mich St
Kelso
50 unit Michigan St