Black Magic Sports
1 Unit on Portland -1.5
Portland will crush a lowly Pepperdine team in the opening round of the WCC Tournament. Portland has won 5 of their last 6 meetings with Pepperdine over the last 3 seasons. Pepperdine is giving up a ridiculous 82 points per game on the road this season. This kind of defensive effort won’t get it done tonight as Portland continues their dominance in this series. Pepperdine is 5-16 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing less than 14 turnovers/game. Pepperdine is 20-35 ATS after 2 straight games with 12 or less assists since 1997. Pepperdine is not sharing the ball and Portland’s team basketball philosophy will prevail tonight. Cash in with Portland as the favorite.
Black Widow Sports
1* on Toronto Raptors -5
We have to favor the Raptors tonight at home despite playing without Chris Bosh. The Washington Wizards are hurting even more in the injury department with Caron Butler and Gilbert Arenas still out with nagging injuries. The Raptors can play small ball and light it up from outside to come away with another blowout home victory. Toronto is 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with the Wizards. Their last home meeting back on January 30th resulted in a 39-point blowout by the Raptors over the Wizards with a final of 122-83. Toronto is 48-25 ATS after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. The Raptors always seem to play their best when returning home from a road trip. Take Toronto and lay the points.
Info Plays
3* on Northeastern -3.5
James Madison is just 4-11 in road games giving up 77 points per game. James Madison and Northeastern split their earlier meetings this season, paving the way for the grudge match tonight. We have to give the edge to Northeastern with them playing in revenge mode tonight following a 3-point loss at James Madison the last time these teams met up. James Madison is 2-12 ATS after 2 consecutive conference games this season. Northeastern is 17-4 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. They have saved their best ball for the end of the season in the last couple years. Bet Northeastern in the Colonial Tournament tonight.
Tony Karpinski
San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Under
PLAY THE UNDER Here is why Over the past few seasons, every game between these two teams has played under the total. San Antonio knows that they cannot let Denver play their style of fast paced basketball and win the game. They are one of the top three defensive teams in the league, and they will prove it tonight. The last game between these two teams featured a very low scoring game, with the total finishing in the 160’s. In addition, San Antonio offense does not play well on the road. Kenyon Martin and Marcus Camby have enough size to limit Tim Duncan’s scoring as well. The Spurs have a tendency to slow games down against high scoring teams like Phoenix, Denver, and Golden State. They are very good about imposing their style of play on other opponents. In addition, Denver’s offense is high scoring against teams with weaker defenses, but they really struggle against good defensive squads, such as Boston and Detroit. This game will slower paced and become a defensive battle with every basket counting.
Marco D´Angelo
Atlanta vs. Charlotte
Pick: ATLANTA
Just like I said yesterday and it worked to perfection this line looks very fishy as Charlotte is a small favorite at home after winning 3 in a row with the last win being a Blowout over Golden St who just crushed Atlanta 2 Games ago. So if Atlanta couldn't beat Golden St and Charlotte beat the snot out of Golden St should they do the same to Atlanta. Well that's what Vegas wants you to think but we ain't buying it. Atlanta getting just 1' Vegas wants us to take Charlotte so that's why we are not. Atlanta wins in an Upset. TAKE ATLANTA
David Malinsky
REASON FOR PICK: 4* PORTLAND over PEPPERDINE
Getting these two in a pick’em range right now tells us a couple of things – those misleading scores in recent Portland games has kept the betting markets from realizing how much the young Pilots have improved this season, and that there is also not a full appreciation as to just what Rico Tucker means to the limited Waves. That opens the door for us to play, and we will.
With only one senior in the playing rotation, Eric Reveno knew that this was going to be a building season at Portland, and we credit him for the way that they developed. By the end of the season significant strides had been made, but the scoreboards could not show it. In a three-game home stand to close out the campaign there was a solid win over Santa Clara, and then what appeared to be blowout losses to NCAA-bound Gonzaga and St. Mary’s. But note that they led Mark Few’s squad in the second half, and also played the Gaels much closer than that final score can indicate. It all works in our favor here.
Meanwhile what has been a tumultuous season for the Waves can come to a close tonight, with only seven scholarship players on the roster. Tucker was second on the team in scoring and first in assists in conference games, and the first time that they took the floor without him they were crushed 88-63 vs. a punchless San Francisco team. There just are not enough pieces left to build any kind of chemistry without him, and given the roller coaster the players and coaches have been through, we are not sure how hard they will be trying anyway.
Now consider the price range. How often will we find a pick’em category when there is such a major gap in defense (Pepperdine allowed 50.0 shooting in WCC play; Portland 46.4) and rebounding (Pepperdine was -7.4 in league games; Portland +.3)? And the Pilots can bring a special focus to this one – after winning at Pepperdine the first time around they suffered a stunning collapse at home in the rematch, leading by 18 points in the second half, and still 66-61 with 2:15 left before a 10-0 closeout by the Waves. That leaves a bitter memory that they can erase tonight, and having dominated the boards to an 82-56 tune in those earlier meetings their inside play controls this one.
Tony Karpinski
Valparaiso vs. Wright State Premium Play
Pick on VALPO.
Utah Jazz vs. Phoenix Suns Premium Play
Pick on the Phoenix Suns
San Antonio Spurs vs. Denver Nuggets Free Play
PLAY THE UNDER
Great Lakes
5* Toronto (GOY)
4* Boston
3* Denver
4* S. Ill
3* Ill Chic
3* Murray St
Accu-Picks
4* IllChic
4* S.Ill
3* Delaware
3* Murray St
4* Seattle
3* Phoenix
WILL SYKES
GS WARRIORS vs MIAMI HEAT
SYKE-O-ANALYSIS: First I'd like to say what beauty trends I have for this play. A good friend of mine got me into a habit at looking for referee trends, and I came across this UNDEFEATED REF TREND. This ref (Phil Robinson) has gone over 12-0 times this year when refereeing a game when the O/U line is set at 205+. Along with that beautiful trend, when Golden State plays home/away, versus a southeast team, they're a wonderful 20-5 OVER (that's 80%) I even broke it down a little further to a 100% trend; when Golden State plays on the road as a favorite against a southeast division team, they're an astonishing 5-0 OVER. Don't get psyched out here by the oddsmakers in making this total look unreachable, remember the Heat just picked up Marion on a trade, and have been picking up the pace. Take this UNRATED play and stick with Sykes so you won't be psyched.
WARRIORS vs HEAT OVER 221.5
Larry Ness
Golden State Warriors @ Miami Heat
PICK: Golden State Warriors
REASON FOR PICK: Talk about teams heading in opposite directions? The Warriors have battled back from an 0-6 start to the year (remember Stephen Jackson was suspended for the season's first seven games) to get themselves back into playoff position again. Golden State had missed the playoffs every year since the 1993-94 season but ended that drought last year in a big way, by beating the 67-15 Mavericks, in the first round. Meanwhile, the Heat have lost 29 of their last 32 games, going a sad 7-24-1 ATS, proving they haven't exactly been very competitive in those losses, either. The Warriors are one of the league's deepest teams, as well as being the highest scoring team (108.0 PPG). In fact, Golden Sate has reached triple digits in 24 consecutive games, going 17-7 during that stretch. The Warriors are hoping that their 6-11 center, Andris Biedrins (10.3-9.7), whio averages nearly a double-double, will soon return to the court and late word has him upgraded to questionable for tonight's game. Either way, it shouldn't much matter as the Warriors are coming off a loss to the Bobcats on Wednesday night and don't figure to make the same mistake here with the Heat. It should also be noted that Miami's last victory over a winning team came back on December 22, when the Heat beat the Jazz. Lay the points (actually very reasonable) with the Warriors.
Steven Nover
San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets
PICK: under
REASON FOR PICK: Denver is capable of scoring 125 points on many teams - but not San Antonio. The Spurs are the one team that knows how to defend the Nuggets.
San Antonio has held Denver to less than 100 points during nine of the past 10 meetings. When the teams last met in Denver on Jan. 3, the Nuggets won 80-77. The average combined score between these two clubs in the last 10 matchups has been 179 points. The 'under' is 23-5-1 in the last 29 games between the Spurs and Nuggets.
San Antonio is playing outstanding defense, holding foes to 87.1 points during its past 11 games. The 'under' has cashed 71 percent of the time during the Spurs' past 21 road contests.
The Nuggets just played the Suns on Wednesday and racked up 126 points. Now they draw the Spurs, a complete contrast.
Ben Burns
Portland Trail Blazers @ Milwaukee Bucks
PICK: Milwaukee Bucks
REASON FOR PICK: Homecourt means a great deal to both these teams. The Blazers are an excellent 22-9 at home. However, they're just 9-21 on the road, including losses in eight of their last nine. The Bucks can relate. They've lost four straight and 11 of 12 on the road. Conversely, they've won four of their last five games here, going a perfect 6-0 ATS their last six. That includes outright victories over the likes of Cleveland, Denver and Detroit. For the season, the Bucks are now a respectable 17-12 at home. Most recently, they scored a season-high 118 points en route to a double-digit win over the Sonics. Charlie Villanueva, who went off for a season-high 32 points, expressed the confidence the Bucks are currently playing with, stating: "We definitely got it done. We're a tough team to beat when we're passing the ball like that. Guys did a tremendous job of finding the open man and guys made big shots. It was a good feeling." Not surprisingly, the Blazers "held serve" when they hosted the Bucks back in December, protecting their homecourt with a four point (overtime) victory. Look for the Bucks to return the favor this evening, building off Wednesday's victory and improving to 12-4 ATS after having scored 105 or more points in their previous game.
Ted Sevransky Free AFL play:
Tampa Bay -5.5
Georgia declined markedly in the offseason, losing Chris Jackson and Derrick Lee (238 catches, 67 touchdowns) from their previously stellar receiving corps. Their offensive coordinator moved on. They lost their leading defensive back, Reggie Doster, the team’s interception leader. Hamin Milligan, the team’s leading tackler (by a wide margin) and #2 interception guy went on IR.
Things got even worse for the Force in Week 1. Doug Plank’s team managed only six touchdowns on their eleven possessions, a very poor ratio in AFL terms, losing by double digits at home. Kicker Carl Martinez missed a crucial late field goal that could have given them a shot at sending the game into overtime. Defensive back David Crocker, who had twice as many tackles as anyone else on the team in the game was carried off the field on a stretcher, placed on IR. In practice this week, their second leading receiver from Game 1, Brent Holmes (eight catches, 156 yards, three touchdowns) earned the ire of the coaching staff and was unceremoniously cut from the team due to his antics. This team is a long, long way from the squad that went 14-2 last year, and finished one victory shy of the Arena Bowl.
The Storm got off to an awful start last season, losing five straight to open the campaign, but they came on like a hurricane down the stretch after finally settling on an emerging quarterback. QB Brett Dietz guided Tampa Bay to eight wins in the last nine games of the regular season before a heartbreaking one point playoff loss to Columbus. They didn’t play particularly well in Week 1, stuffed on a pair of goal line opportunities that cost them two potential touchdowns, yet still came away with the road victory at KC.
We can expect a much better offensive showing from the Storm tonight. They added playmaking WR and return man Sedrick Robinson in the offseason, joining Terrell Shaw and Lawrence Samuels to form a formidable receiving corps, bad news for the banged up Force secondary. The Storm can be expected to put up points in bunches in 2008, the same way they did down the stretch last year when they scored 61, 69, 69, 55 and 55 points in their final five games. Expect a comfortable victory this evening.
Take Tampa Bay (Line as I post TB -5.5)
Wayne Root
Chairman - Milw Bucks
Millionaire - Iona
Marco D'Angelo
Upset shocker: PENN
Kelso
Chairmans 10 units Milw Bucks -2.5
Best Bet 5 units Cornell -6
March madness
10 units Ill St -2.5
5 units Ill-Chic -4.5
3 units Austin Peay -7.5
LT Profits
Loyola Chicago +4.5
The Loyola-Chicago Ramblers lost both regular season meetings to the Illinois-Chicago Flames, but the Ramblers are currently on a 10-3-1 run against the spread, and we give them a chance to pull the outright upset here.
The Ramblers already sprang one upset just to make it to Indianapolis, knocking of Wisconsin-Milwaukee on the Panthers’ home floor 57-51 on Tuesday. Most encouraging is the fact that Loyola-Chicago is 6-2 ATS on the road during this current streak, and in addition to that win at Milwaukee they also posted outright upsets at Valparaiso in conference and at William & Mary out of conference on Bracket Buster day.
Illinois-Chicago had a much easier first round match-up as they played at how vs. conference doormats Youngstown State, yet they failed to cover the spread in a 70-59 victory. The Flames had a rather uneven end to the regular season, as they are now just 3-4 both straight up and against the spread over their last seven games. Also, both encounters between these teams this season could have gone either way, as the 78-68 score in the game at UIC is very misleading as that game went into overtime.
We look for the Ramblers to stick around again in this game tonight at the very least, with a late basket deciding the outright outcome either way.
Pick: Loyola-Chicago +4.5
San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets u200.5
Although the Denver Nuggets like to play at a fast pace, this is an awfully high total for any game involving the San Antonio Spurs and we look for the Spurs to control the tempo here.
After all, the Spurs have always been able to slow down Carmello Anthony & Co., as the Under now an amazing 13-2 in the last 15 head-to-head meetings between these clubs including a perfect 10-0 in the last 10 encounters! Furthermore, none of those 15 meetings reached the 200-point plateau. San Antonio has now won 11 consecutive games, and as usual the Spurs are winning with defense, allowing just 87.1 points per game during this streak with the games averaging a combined 182.7 points, about 18 points less than this posted total.
Yes, the Nuggets are averaging 107.6 points per game overall this season including a whopping 109.7 points at home, and they are coming off of a 126-113 shootout win vs. the Phoenix Suns. Still, the last two times that the Nuggets have played teams that play any defense, they scored just 89 points at Houston and 93 points here at home vs. Detroit, and we have already mentioned their past difficulties scoring against the Spurs, including both games this season where they scored just 80 points here and 91 points at San Antonio.
We actually feel that these clubs will have a tough time reaching 190 points here, let alone going over 200.
Pick: Spurs, Nuggets Under 200.5