Mike Rose
Dallas Desperados -9.0
This is a game Dallas has had circled on its ’08 schedule ever since last year’s shocking Divisional Round post-season loss to the division rival Destroyers. In case you forgot, Dallas held a 14-point lead at the half and looked all but sure of cruising to the home win and cover in the second half. It didn’t exactly happen that way as Columbus recovered back-to-back kick-offs that rattled off the uprights, and had the game tied up with less than a minute expired in the 3rd quarter. The enormous swing of momentum deflated Dallas’ balloon in a blink of an eye, and they were never able to recover from it the rest of the way. Columbus’ win was one of the biggest upsets in AFL history.
Even though the Destroyers captured the National Conference crown last season, the front office decided to make wholesale changes up and down the roster. The defense has been completely revamped, and none of QB Matt Nagy’s receivers remain on the roster. Instead, they brought in WR Derek Lee from Georgia who once played with Nagy when he was a member of the Force. They picked up right where they left off last week at Colorado as Nagy found him 11 times for 95 yards, and threw 3 of his 4 TD passes his way. They held a 40-37 lead against the Crush heading into the 4th quarter, but couldn’t hold on and eventually lost by a 50-47 final count. They did however cover the 5-point spread and the combined score fell a half point Under the closing ‘total’ of 97.5.
Dallas picked up a big road win and cover at Georgia to avenge their only regular season loss from last year, but in the process, lost stud QB Clint Dolezel to a separated shoulder that will keep him on the shelf for 4-6 weeks. This is a big blow to the Despo’s plans of going undefeated this season, but QB Chris Sanders is a proven commodity in this league that will be working with one of the best offensive units the league has to offer.
These clubs played in some very memorable games last season. The Playoff battle has already been mentioned up above, but Dallas also stormed back from a 23 point deficit at home to upend the Destroyers by a 53-51 final count in their first meeting last season. Columbus covered as 15-point road dawgs then, and the combined 104 points fell Under the closing ‘total’ of 114. The rematch in Columbus saw Dallas win again, but this time, they pulled off a wire-to-wire job and managed to cover the 6-point spread in the 56-47 road victory.
Bottom line here is that Dallas will dominate this game defensively, and not allow the Destroyers new look offense much breathing room. Look for now OC Dolezel to call a fantastic game and for the Despo's to turn the page on that excruciating loss they suffered in the playoffs once and for all....
Sunday
Utah Blaze @ Cleveland Gladiators u109.0
The AFL kicked off in fine fashion last week in Cleveland when the franchise won its first game of the season over the NY Dragons in a game that saw 17,000+ pack the Quicken Loans Center to get a glimpse of Cleveland icon Bernie Kosar’s new team. The Gladiators franchise came over from Las Vegas where they turned into one of the worst franchises in the league the last couple seasons. Kosar wanted experienced vets to lead his team in its first year of existence in Cleveland, and that’s exactly what he got. He couldn’t have made a better choice at the QB position when he decided to bring in Raymond Philyaw who had a monster season in KC last year to help lead the Brigade to the post-season in just the franchises second year of existence. He also stacked the D-Line with AFL vets Silas Demary and Joe Minucci who made names for themselves while playing for Los Angeles and Nashville.
The Gladiators proved to be more of a smashmouth team last week when they gained 308 yards overall, but gained 68 of them on the ground. FB/LB Marlion Jackson set the pace on the ground, while QB Philyaw kept the Dragons defense honest by completing 18-of-23 passes for 248 yards and 5 TDs with 1 INT. They won the turnover battle 3:2 and outscored NY 21-14 to pull away for the 61-49 home win and cover.
Head coach Danny White’s Utah Blaze were one of the more entertaining teams to watch in the league last season. Their offense was simply sensational led by QB Joe Germaine who passed for a league record 5,005 yards last season. He picked right back where he left off last week against Arizona when he completed 19-of-31 passes for 236 yards and 5 TDs with 1 INT. The Blaze lost however by a 63-62 final count when K Steve Videtich’s last second FG attempt sailed wide left.
Oddsmakers installed the Gladiators as short 1-point home favorites, but the betting public has bought into Kosar’s team and the line now sits at (-3.5) with the ‘total’ set at 109. Utah failed to cover the spread in both of their meetings with the Gladiators last season. They won by a 57-47 final tally in “Sin City” as 10.5-point road chalks, and shockingly lost SU to the Glads at home in the rematch as 17-point favorites. The Under has cashed in 4 of Utah’s L/5 road games, and it’s also cashed in 6 of the Gladiators L/9 home games. Look for Cleveland to look to the control the clock with its ground attack while keeping the potent Blaze offense on the sideline in the process. The ‘Under’ looks to be an awfully tasty proposition.
Monday
San Jose SaberCats -10.5
The defending ArenaBowl Champions got off to a rough start last week in Chicago in a game that was a tail of two halves. Chicago busted out of the gates to grab a quick 14-0 lead, but the Sabercats stayed calm, cool, and collected and got themselves right back into the game. After Rodney Wright hauled in a 6-yard TD pass from QB Mark Grieb at the 10:50 mark of the second quarter, the Sabercats astonishingly found themselves up 21-14. The All State Arena seemed to be a more tranquil place after that, but the Rush weren’t going to go down quietly. The 2nd quarter expired when K AJ Haglund nailed a 45-yard FG, and the Sabercats went into the break down a point at 28-27. They were right in it, and Head Coach Darren Arbet demanded his men got more physical in the second half to allow them to steal a win.
It didn’t happen however as they were outscored 14-7 in the third quarter and 28-13 in the final quarter. There was a very questionable call made that went against the Sabercats on what was a perceived fumble by WR James Roe, but replay made it clearly apparent that his knee was down before he lost control of the pigskin. Thankfully for the Rush, there is no instant replay in this league. Mark Grieb completed 35-of-46 passes for 353 yards and 5 TDs, but Chicago’s relentless stop unit coaxed him into throwing some errant passes that were picked off three times. They lost the turnover battle 5:2 and only converted 2 of their 6 3rd down tries. All in all, the defending champs got beat up pretty bad and will no doubt take the field against Grand Rapids in search of atonement.
Tonight’s game will be the first of the season for Grand Rapids as they were the lone team off last week. The new look Rampage have a new leader at the helm that goes by the name of Steve Thonn. He was the offensive coordinator for the Georgia Force, who averaged a whopping 62.9 PPG in 2007. They rebuilt their roster through Nashville and Austin folding. The secondary looks rather impressive, headed up by Ahmad Hawkins, who broke the AFL record with 13 INTs in 2007. The offense seems patchwork, but if anyone can build an offense from the ground up, it’s Steve Thonn.
San Jose is an 11-point road chalk with the ‘total’ set at 106 for this match-up. In the eight games played between these two clubs, San Jose has won 7 of them SU and gone 6-2-1 ATS. The Sabercats have won 4 of its L/5 road games SU, and they’re a solid 9-3-1 ATS its L/13 road contests.
Lock Of The Day
Golden State-4.5
Sports investors
Denver
Armvin Sports
Manhattan
Dr Bob
2* Drake -9, 3* @ -8
Opinion
Drexel +1, 2* @ +2
SportsKingz
L.A. CLIPPERS +15.5 (10 UNITS)
PHOENIX -3.5 (5 UNITS)
Drew Gordon Writeups:
1. 200,000* 76ers
2. 50,000* Wright State
3. 50,000* Suns
1. 76ers- How can you possibly not like the 76ers at home in this one, being they've gone 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS over their last 9 at the Wachovia Center?! Underestimate them at your own risk, as they've found the right chemistry nd it shows, going 13-3-1 ATS over their last 17 games overall! Guys, the 76ers are more than capable of blowing the doors off this road-weary Sonics team tonight, and I'll prove to you.
First, let's talk match ups, as the two Andre's, Miller and Igoudala, are playing their best basketball of the season right now. But its not just them, as their unselfishness has become contagious, with players like Willie Green, Louis Williams, and Thaddeus Young all playing well above their averages. Besides Durant, the 76ers have edges at almost every position, and even Durant can be maddeningly inconsistent with his shot.
Seattle is absolutely atrocious on the defensive end, allowing 113 ppg on 49% shooting (43% from 3-point) over their last 5 games, and you better believe this resurgent 76ers offense will take advantage. Over their last 5 games, Philly is averaging 104 ppg on a scorching 49% shooting! When you add in the fact the 76ers have been off since Monday, all the extra rest and preparation time only makes it that much worse for Seattle tonight, playing their 4th road game in 6 nights.
Bottom line, the 76ers have been money at home over the last month or so, and there's little reason to believe a tired, road-weary Sonics team will do anything to reverse that trend tonight. Philly not only has a tremendous edge defensively, but with their offense firing on all cylinders, plus the extra prep time, look for the 76ers to get the lopsided home win and cover in this one. 76ers roll!
Take the 76ers BIG over the Sonics as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Wright State- Based on their last meeting (75-73 Valparaiso OT win, but Wright State cover) I can understand why oddsmakers would make this game a near pick'em situation. However, for those of us who follow the Horizon, tonight's match up clearly favors the Raiders and here's why:
First and foremost, there's double revenge, as the Crusaders won both meetings this season. Revenge is one of the best motivators in college sports, and I just don't see Valpo sticking it to Wright State 3 straight times.
In their last meeting, both Duggins (2 for 9 shooting) and Brown (4 for 13 shooting) shot poorly, but Wright State still managed to cover. Why? Two reasons: A. Their defense, which allowed Valpo to shoot only 40% on their home floor. And B. They take care of the basketball, committing only 6 turnovers all game (incl. OT)! Now on a neutral court, these differences become even more apparent, as the Raiders were excellent against Detroit in their last one (allowed a total 37 points on 33% shooting) and will be excellent once again here tonight!
Finally, one match up the Raiders are sure to key on is F Michael Rogers, who dropped 21 points and 12 rebounds in his best game of the season in their last meeting. This is a kid who usually averages 3 ppg and 3 boards/game, so there's no excuse for Wilson and Pleiman to allow him to go off again. Note, he scored only 2 points and grabbed 2 rebounds in the game following their win over Wright State... So don't tell me he can't be stopped!
Bottom line, Wright State gets their redemption, advances in the Horizon tourney, and grabs the cash all in one fell swoop tonight. They've got edge on defense, the edge in the backcourt, and this time around they won't allow a monster game from Rogers. Raiders take care of business in this one!
Take Wright State over Valparaiso in this Horizon League Quarterfinal match up.
3. Suns- I know there's been a lot of talk about the Shaq trade, and the Suns subsequent slide since he joined their team, but let's not get carried away. The Suns are still 21-9 SU at home, and for one of the few times this season, they're getting favorable odds at home. I can understand them being slight favorites over teams like Boston or Detroit, but the Jazz are not on their level, at least not on the road.
The Jazz are a team with a split personality, great at home, absolute garbage on the road. The line on this game is all about perception - People perceieve the Suns as struggling, but in reality, the Jazz's struggles on the road are well-documented and far more severe, having gone 13-19 SUATS away this season! Sure, the Suns are having issues incorporating Shaq in their run-and-gun system, but this just might be the game it start to pay off.
The Jazz usually have a signifcant size edge with their big frontcourt, that features Boozer, Kirilenko, and Okur. But Kirilenko is injured, and neither Boozer or Okur can cover O'Neal with any consistency. Not only that, but Shaq's presence has opened the door for Stoudemire, who's much more efficient in the power forward spot. Note that Shaq's 18 rebounds at Denver was one of his best efforts of the season (a good sign for Suns fans).
The biggest difference between the Jazz's home play and road play is defense, allowing 104 ppg on 46% shooting away this season. That's simply not good enough against a team like the Suns, that averages upwards of 110 ppg at home this season! Let's not forget Utah crushed the Suns in their last meeting, and Phoenix will be looking for redemption on their home court tonight.
Bottom line, Utah's road woes remerge tonight, as the Suns need to start winning, and a road-weary Jazz team is just what the doctor ordered. Match ups are solid across the board for Phoenix, including O'Neal. In the end, the Suns protect their house and grab the cash in the process!
Take the Suns comfortably over the Jazz in this NBA match up.
Rocco Vincintore
Ohio Valley Conference Tourney
7 PM 1000* OHIO VALLEY TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR
Austin Peay
Horizon Conference Tourney
820 PM 500* HORIZON LEAGUE CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT WINNER
Illinois Chicago
Keith Martin Sports
Over Valpo 123.5
Free Play Over S Ill
ALATEX SUPER PLAY
Wright State
Balfe
HEAT +5
Drexel +1
Sunday Selections
MIAMI HEAT +5
INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY
UTAH vs PHOENIX
Play: PHOENIX SUNS -5 (POD)
Comments: INDIAN COWBOY'S PLAY OF THE DAY: Suns -5 (POD)
I like this game for several reasons. As you know I look for what I call a "tripod" of reasons as that is the final line in which I end every POD analysis with. As per this game, the Suns come off a tough loss to Denver on the road and they did respond well to the Sixers loss by going on the road and beating a decent Portland team in the Rose Garden, a very tough place to play. They actually lost by 20+ points to the Jazz on the road earlier this year back in January in a game that Steve Nash did not play as that spread was -7.5. In fact, I remember that game specifically as that was my POD and I hammered the Jazz the night before -5.5 in an early release for clients. Well, of course Nash is back and so is the addition of Shaq which has clearly not helped this team in the early going. This team has lost 4 of their last 5 ballgames and I'm sure they are feeling the heat. But, they did beat the Celtics at home fairly handily which is tough to do, they face a Jazz team that has shown an ability to hiccup on the road such as the road loss to the Clippers and Timberwolves. I like the fact the Jazz come off a blowout win over Minny at home and they did do well in their last road game at Minnesota bouncing back from a previous road loss they had to New Orleans (another POD that I had with the Hornets over the Jazz). My tripod of reasoning here is the fact the Suns have revenge from a 20+ blowout loss to the Jazz, they come back home after a tough loss to the Nuggets on the road and they have added pressure of showing that this team can win with this new framed lineup - not to mention Nash is playing this time around and the Jazz have shown weakness on the road. The Jazz are 1-7 ATS as an underdog by this margin of late and the Suns are 4-1 ATS following a straight up loss of late.
TEDDY COVERS
PORTLAND-MILWAUKEE
Recommendation: Blazers
The Blazers have finally snapped out of their extended funk. Portland was the hottest team in the NBA for a six week stretch through December and January, going on a remarkable 17-1 SU run. But the Blazers went 1-8 SU in the stretch immediately before
and after the All Star break, falling way behind the rest of the pack in the race for the final playoff spot in the West. But the Blazers seem re-energized in the last week, in large part due to a return to health. Brandon Roy had been sidelined with a bad ankle, but he had 20 points and 12 assists in the Blazers upset win over the Lakers this past week, snapping LA’s ten game winning streak. Key reserve James Jones had missed the previous dozen games prior to the Lakers win but he returned to the lineup for that contest as well. It’s surely worth noting that the Blazers are 23-12 SU when Jones plays; 8-16 without him. Milwaukee,too, has shown recent signs of an uptick, particularly at home. Since the All Star break, the Bucks have upset wins over Cleveland, Denver and Detroit at the Bradley Center, as well as a spread covering two point loss to the Spurs this past weekend.
But even in those relatively well played games, Milwaukee was able to emerge victorious ATS only because of their own good shooting – this is not a team playing any sort of consistent defense. That contrasts dramatically with the defensive minded
Blazers, making Portland the clear choice on Friday Night.
Wunderdog
Seattle at Philadelphia (7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Philadelphia -10.5 (-110)
The Sixers are 10-3 in their last 13 games, moving into the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race. They are rolling and need tocontinue to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Seattle comes in having lost 15 of their last 17 road games. This is a big number, but the Sixers on are on a mission right now, they are clicking, and they are motivated. We think they cover it. Seattle has allowed their last five opponents to average 113.4 ppg. Philly has put up 104.8 per game over their last five. This one should get out of hand early and stay that way. Philly has won seven straight home games ATS vs. teams with weak defenses(99+ ppg allowed) and they have covered the spread in their last eight home games overall.
Billy Coleman
5* Phoenix (GOM)
4* Hofstra,
3* Seattle, Ill-Chicago
Arena
Georgia
ATS Consultants
Golden State over Miami 108-90 Best Bet
Utah covers v. Phx 103-104 Preferred Play
Detroit over NY Knicks 103-85 Preferred Play
Over in the TB/NJ hockey game Preferred Play
Calgary over Nashville Preferred Play
AJ Apollo
NBA 3* Action Phoenix Suns
CBB 3* Action Missouri State
Frank Rosenthal
NBA HOOPS
701 HAWKS OVER 203
707 PISTONS-10
709 WARRIORS-4.5
UNDER 222.5
712 CELTICS-10.5
717 JAZZ+5.5
UNDER 223.5
721 SPURS+2.5
UNDER 201
724 LAKERS UNDER 227
725 BROWN-4.5
730 PRINCETON-1.5
749 VALPO UNDER 124
754 SF-9
ZEN GAMBLER
Utah +5.0
Doc NHL
4* Minnesota -135