Ted Servansky
Underdog Game of the Year
West Virginia at Georgetown
PICK: West Virginia
REASON FOR PICK: We backed West Virginia yesterday as they pulled the surprisingly easy upset over UConn. Expect more of the same when the Mountaineers face off against #1 seed Georgetown on Friday Night. We still haven’t seen anything resembling West Virginia’s ‘A’ game, despite their 2-0 mark in the tournament so far. On Wednesday, West Virginia survived and advanced despite a pretty lousy performance: 3 of 15 from three point range, 9 of 14 from the free throw line, 17 turnovers. Star perimeter shooter and second leading scorer Alex Rouff was only 2 for 8 from the floor, scoring only five points.
Yesterday’s win wasn’t all that much better:v5-17 from three point range, Ruoff hitting only one shot from the field, 16 turnovers, foul problems throughout. But Bob Huggins team played with such passion, such energy and such defensive intensity that the stats didn’t matter – this team simply wanted it more. Opposing coach Jim Calhoun: “Some games are very complex and you mull over them, why you won and why lost, it’s difficult. This one is very easy. They came out and kicked our butt.”
Playing in a venue where they’ve won 10 of their last 13 games in SU fashion, including a run to the NIT title last March, West Virginia has an enormous sense of confidence on this floor right now. Combine that with the unbelievable shooting run from junior forward Joe Alexander, who’s scored 32, 32, 29, 22 and 34 points in his last five games, and there’s no reason to think that West Virginia isn’t going to be this year’s Cinderella in the Big East Tournament.
Georgetown won the regular season Big East title, one hell of an accomplishment in this rugged league. And the Hoyas were unstoppable yesterday, having ‘one of those days’ from three point land, hitting a season high 17-27 from beyond the arc and 55% from the field overall, with 25 assists on their 28 made baskets. Quite frankly, that isn’t going to happen two days in a row, and it’s certainly not going to happen the way that West Virginia is playing defense right now.
The first meeting between these two teams was a true buzzer beater. West Virginia struggled from the free throw line, an uncharacteristic 52% from the line. Georgetown’s Jessie Sapp hit a three with six seconds left, then Patrick Ewing Jr blocked a controversial shot at the buzzer as Georgetown won by a single point. Bob Huggins went ballistic, arguing for a goaltending call: “I’m not allowed to make a comment. I think it’s pretty obvious.” Let’s not forget that Alexander was limited with a bad groin in that game, forced to come off the bench, and making only two shots.
While the public goes nuts betting the Hoyas on the theory that they’ve never lost a Big East tournament game as a #1 seed (forgetting that the last FOUR times Georgetown was the #1 seed were in the 1980’s, with absolutely no relevance for this team this year), we can wait until the hour before tip-off and get an even better price on West Virginia as an underdog in a game worthy of Big Ticket status. Big Ticket:
Take West Virginia.
THE SPORTS REPORTER
*BOSTON over UTAH by 7
BOSTON 97-90
*ATLANTA over L.A. CLIPPERS by 9
ATLANTA 96-87
ORLANDO over *MIAMI by 12
ORLANDO 106-94
SAN ANTONIO over * DETROIT by 2
SAN ANTONIO 90-88
BEST BET
L.A. LAKERS over *NEW ORLEANS by 9
L.A. LAKERS 110-101
*HOUSTON over CHARLOTTE by 12
HOUSTON 112-100
PHILADELPHIA over *CHICAGO by 7
PHILADELPHIA 96-89
*DALLAS over INDIANA by 11
DALLAS 107-96
*DENVER over TORONTO by 11
DENVER 122-111
MINNESOTA over *SEATTLE by 4
MINNESOTA 105-101
WINNING POINTS
*Boston over Utah by 7
BOSTON 102-95.
*Atlanta over Los Angeles Clippers by 9
ATLANTA 101-92.
***BEST BET
*Miami over Orlando by 7
MIAMI 110-103.
*Detroit over San Antonio by 3
DETROIT 91-88.
*New Orleans over Los Angeles Lakers by 1
NEW ORLEANS 104-103.
*Houston over Charlotte by 15
HOUSTON 103-88.
***BEST BET
*Chicago over Philadelphia by 15
CHICAGO 111-96.
*Dallas over Indiana by 14
DALLAS 109-95.
*Denver over Toronto by 7
DENVER 108-101.
*Seattle over Minnesota by 2
SEATTLE 96-94.
Tom Scott
Michigan State vs Ohio State
Play ON:MICHIGAN STATE minus the points
The fact that Michigan State is off a loss makes the Spartans appealing in this game. Sparty is 81-22 since 1990 and 20-2 of late off a loss when not playing on an opponents home court. Making the situation more appealing is the fact that the loss came to these Buckeyes in a game where Michigan State led with less than three minutes to play only to watch Ohio State score the last ten points and steal the win. Ohio State will have trouble winning this one. The Buckeyes are a perfect 0-6 SU away from home against NCAA tourney caliber teams this season, a record that sets up these incredible numbers: Ohio State is 0-14 ATS in its last 14 post season losses; Michigan State is 15-0 ATS in its last 15 SU wins off a loss vs an opponent off back-to-back wins and 9-0 ATS away from home in its last nine SU revenge wins. Izzo gets even today.
PREDICTION: MICHIGAN STATE 75 - Ohio State 60
Jim Feist
IND Pacers - DAL Mavericks
Take "Over"
Jason Kidd has certainly brought his offensive wizardry to the Mavs, on a 7-1 run over the total. It’s going to be even easier for this Dallas offense to score on this terrible Indiana defense, one giving up 105 ppg, third most in the league, and 39% shooting from three-point land – that’s dead last in the NBA. Indiana is on a 6-1 run over the total. Look for a run-and-gun game in Texas, play the Pacers/Mavs over the total!! - Click Here for more free picks
IND Pacers - ORL Magic
Take "ORL Magic"
Both teams had to play Friday, so it’s the second of a back to back spot. But which one will be more tired? Orlando had to play the punchless Miami Heat, the worst team in the league. Defenseless Indiana had to play at Dallas, knock heads with the Mavericks and then fly to Orlando for another road game. Indiana has no interiors defense, so the Magic will have a field day in the low post. And Orlando is 19-12 SU, 18-13 ATS at home. Play the Orlando Magic!
Big Al
At 10:35 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Golden State Warriors plus the points over the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix checks into this game off back to back SU/ATS wins (over the Spurs and Grizzlies), but the Suns are a horrid 15-36 off two ATS wins, dating back to January 2006. And if Phoenix is matched up against a foe off a straight-up win, then our 15-36 stat moves to an even worse 4-21 ATS. With GSW in off a 117-106 victory last night, we'll play on the Warriors to pull the upset.
atslocks.com (not ats lock club)
10 units Michigan State -4.5
8 units Western Michigan +2
Alex Smart
Tennessee -12.0
Tennessee (28-3) enters into this contest against South Carolina(13-7) head and shoulders above their competition, already beating them this season by a lopsided 89-56 count, and than subsequently going 12-1 since than. The Volunteers have a tremendous team, and have their best chance at a conference championship in 30 years , and will come out here gunning behind the SECs top offense (82.5 PPG) for conclusive win , as they leave nothing to chance. Tennessee Vols
Scott Rickenbach
Colorado @ Oklahoma
PICK: Oklahoma
REASON FOR PICK: NCAAB Game #540 - 1* (regular play) Oklahoma Sooners (-) vs Colorado @ 3:00 ET - The Buffaloes are not known for their offense as that was one of their key concerns coming into this season. The question was how Colorado was going to be able to generate enough on the offensive end to remain competitive in a talented Big Twelve. As it turns out the concerns about the Buffaloes were warranted and this was especially true away from home. When Colorado wasn't playing in Boulder they had a number of very ugly performances. So that brings us the point of how did the Buffs manage to defeat Baylor yesterday? The answers to that lead us to a very solid play today.
The Bears simply underestimated the Buffaloes yesterday and they paid for it. The other key was that Colorado enjoyed some surprising offensive success yesterday. That is not likely to be repeated. It's a wake-up call that Oklahoma is now well aware of. In other words, look for the Sooners to defend the Buffs with much more intensity than Baylor did yesterday. Additionally, Oklahoma will take advantage of a Colorado team that had to go to double overtime to notch that win yesterday. This will result in some tired legs for the Buffs showing up at least by the second half of this afternoon's game. The Sooners may not have impressed with their full season performance but note how well they play when their health is intact. This shows just how capable this team is and they have a talented frontcourt along with some dangerous scorers on the perimeter. The Buffs, unlike yesterday, simply won't be able to keep up and this one turns into a rout. Play Oklahoma minus the points as a regular selection.
Brandon Lang
40 DIME - UTAH ST
10 DIME - TULSA
5 DIME - INDIANA
5 DIME - OHIO ST
Free pick - Vanderbilt, Lakers
ATS Basketball Lock Club
6 units St Joes
5 units Indiana
5 units Ok St
4 units Utah St
4 units W.Michigan
Here are the touts that killed us all. Bet with caution
Drew Gordon
Today's Games...
1. 300,000♦ San Diego State
2. 50,000♦ Utah State
3. 50,000♦ Minnesota
4. 50,000♦ Nuggets
Back with your analysis by Noon ET.
Karl Garrett
50 DIMER - USC TROJANS....20 DIMER - ST. JOE'S HAWKS...10 DIMERS - PITT PANTHERS, & LA LAKERS
50 DIMER - USC TROJANS
Tim Floyd's team is peaking right now, as they closed the regular season with wins in 5 of their last 6, including a dominating home court victory over Top 10 Stanford.
I expect the Trojans to stay close to the Bruins in this cross-city rivalry tonight, as USC has already handed the Uclans 1 of their 3 losses this year, 72-63 - and in Westwood no less!
The schools did split the season series this year, as UCLA was able to stop a 4-game against the spread slide with the win in the most recent meeting back on February 17th.
Right now, the USC youngsters are playing above their heads, and I don't expect that to stop in this spot tonight. The Bruins may well win this game, but not by this impost.
Take the points!
20 DIMER - ST. JOSEPH'S HAWKS
St. Joe's home finale win over Xavier has seemed to give this team a boost, as the Hawks have ripped through the first two rounds of this tournament, and now must face the X-Men once again here in the semis. If Joey's can get by, I would say the chances of going to the Big Dance are 100%, so expect Martelli's crew to bring their A-game tonight.
Playing in nearby Atlantic City will also help, as the crowd should definitely be in the Hawks corner.
St. Joe's has covered the last 4 series meetings, all in the underdog role, and the Musketeers are just 6-8 against the spread on the road this year.
Have to take the points in this one.
10 DIMER - PITTSBURGH PANTHERS
Pitt really showed me something with yesterday's overtime win over Louisville, and I like them to make it to the finals of the Big East tournament once again this season with the win over Marquette.
The Golden Eagles played a strange game against the Irish yesterday, as they trailed by as many as 10, but did come off the deck to get the outright win as the small dog.
No such luck tonight, as Pittsburgh well remembers that Friday night on February 15th when they went into Wisconsin, and were drilled 72-54 as the 5-point dog. Last season in this very tourney, Pittsburgh won a 10-point decision over Marquette, and as Yogi Berra once said, tonight is "deja vu, all over again!"
The Panthers are in that New York city groove, and it is going to lead to tomorrow night's final.
Pitt is it!
10 DIMER - LA LAKERS
Hard to knock the Hornets, as New Orleans is as hot as any team out West, and they have won and covered 6 of their last 8. Still, the G-Man prefers Kobe and his band of merry-men in this one, as the Lakers are on a 17-3 straight up run, and this game is priced at a number they should have no trouble getting on top of.
These teams have split a pair of games this season, with the visitor winning and covering in both.
On the road, the Lake Show is on a 19-7-1 run their last 27, and while I am sure they are itching to get to Sunday's road game at Houston, they cannot afford to be looking ahead with the Hornets only a game behind in the loss column.
Think of this one as an early "playoff" type of a game. My money is on the Lakers as they continue to be "road warriors".
Michael Cannon
Friday's Plays...
15 Dime –
NORTH CAROLINA
Take the Tarheels minus the big number this afternoon over Florida State.
North Carolina is poised to make a run in the ACC tournament. Coach Roy Williams has successfully worked point guard Ty Lawson back into the lineup gradually, and the last few games have allowed him to get his legs back under him.
If Lawson is able to play more than the 23 minutes he played against Duke in their last game, North Carolina should easily be able to cover this number.
While Lawson was out of the lineup with his ankle injury, it allowed players like Marcus Ginyard and Danny Green to step up in his absence.
Of course, it also allowed Tyler Hansbrough to elevate his game to an even higher level.
Now that all the pieces are back in the puzzle, this Tarheel team is once again the class of the ACC.
Florida State relies too much on its perimeter game for them to stay close today. When they miss, it allows the Tarheels a chance to run and score easy buckets with their fast break offense.
Take North Carolina minus the big number as they grab the win and cover.
5 Dime –
PURDUE
Take Purdue minus the points over Illinois tonight in the Big Ten tournament.
I really like the way Purdue is playing right now. They are a team that never gets rattled, no matter how the game is going.
It’s this trait that will carry them past Illinois tonight.
Purdue is a smart team that executes its offense with efficiency. They have gone 8-2 SU in their last 10 games (8-1-1 ATS).
This medium number should be no problem for them against an Illinois team that’s failed to cover five of its last seven games. They narrowly escaped with a victory over an inferior Penn State team yesterday, and that does not bode well for them tonight.
Take Purdue as they grab the cash with the win and cover.
ST. JOE’S
Take the points with St. Joe’s tonight when they take on rival Xavier in the A-10 Tournament.
These two teams split their season series with St. Joe’s grabbing the cash in both games.
Xavier has the experience edge, but St. Joe’s has been up to the challenge in each meeting.
St. Joe’s has been one of the better teams against the spread in the A-10, going 18-11 this year.
Xavier, on the other hand, may be the class of the conference but has failed to cover the number in three of its last four games.
St. Joe’s has cruised to wins over Fordham and Richland in the first two rounds, winning by a combined 32 points.
You can bet they will be focused and ready for the task on hand tonight.
Take the points with St. Joe’s as they battle Xavier down to the wire and grab the cash.
WEST VIRGINIA
Take the points with West Virginia tonight when they take on Georgetown.
I made the mistake of going against the Mountaineers with Connecticut yesterday, and I’m not about to do it again tonight.
That’s because Joe Alexander is a man possessed right now, and I don’t think there’s a player in the conference that can shut him down the way he’s playing right now.
Alexander is averaging a whopping 29.8 ppg over his last five games, and not even the vaunted Hoyas defense can slow him down.
Georgetown benefited from an uncharacteristically hot game from beyond the arc in its win over Villanova yesterday, but I don’t see them lighting it up again like that tonight.
Center Roy Hibbert failed to score in Georgetown’s 19-point win yesterday, which is absolutely embarrassing. The guy is 7-2 and he takes two shots from the field.
If Georgetown relies on its perimeter game again tonight, they’ll be lucky to win this game, let alone cover.
Take West Virginia as Alexander keeps shooting lights out and the Mountaineers stay within the number.
Larry Ness |
Michigan St. -4.0 vs Ohio St.
Ohio State lost in last year's championship game to Florida but all knew it would be tough going for Thad Matta's team this year after losing star freshman Oden (15.7-9.6), Conley (11.3-6.1 APG) and Cook (9.8-4.3), plus senior Ron Lewis (12.7). As for Michigan State, all five starters were back from Tom Izzo's 23-win team of last season, including guard Drew Neitzel (18.1-4.3 APG), who appeared on many preseason All-American teams. Michigan State was expected to be at the minimum, a top-10 team. OSU has struggled most of the year but has kept its at-large hopes alive by beating Purdue and this Mich St team in its final two home games of the regular season, entering this game at 19-12 (10-8 in the Big 10). As for MSU, the Spartans were rolling at the end of January at 19-2 and owned a top-10 ranking but lost road games at ranked teams like Purdue, Indiana and Wisconsin down the stretch, plus threw in a bad road loss at Penn St, before falling apart in the second half at Columbus in that loss to the Buckeyes. Neitzel (13.4-2.5-4.2) did not have an All-American season but joined by Lucas (9.8-3.9 APG), Allen (6.0). Summers (5.2) and Walton (3.7-4.4 APG), the Spartans have a good and very deep backcourt. The 6-7 Morgan (15.0-6.3) is the team's best player plus the two 6-10 guys, Suton (8.7-8.2) and Naymick (4.3-4.0), are solid. The 6-8 Gray (5.0-4.2) adds depth in the frontcourt. Getting back to the Buckeyes, four vets were joined by a new freshman class, which couldn't possibly match up with LY's group. Three seniors, guard Butler (14.6-3.2-6.), the 6-8 Hunter (9.6-6.2) and the 6-9 Terwilliger (3.2-2.5) plus 6-5 soph Lighty (8.6-3.7-2.3) are the veterans of note. The 7-0 Koufus (13.7-6.8) plus two 6-6 players, Turner (8.2-4.2-2,5) and Diebler (6.3-2.4), are the stars of the freshman class. I'm not even remotely sold on this group of Buckeyes. Their RPI top-50 record is still very suspect and the team's best non-conference wins came over Syracuse at Madison Square Garden and against Florida (at home), both of whom were embarrassed in their first conference tourney games and deserve to be left out come Selection Sunday. OSU also lost to Butler, North Carolina, Tennessee and Texas A&M! Mich St lost a close one in Kansas City to UCLA, beat an athletic Texas team in the Palace of Auburn Hills and made a nice comeback in Salt Lake City to beat BYU. The Spartans never lost at home this year and while they had two road hiccups in the Big 10 (at Iowa and Penn St), the team's other losses were excusable. Izzo's been an excellent tournament coach for over a decade now and getting this quick rematch with Ohio State, should be all the motivation his team needs. I believe Koufus is very overrated and after today's game, Ohio State (like LY's title game opponent Florida) will find itself "sweating out" Sunday's at-large announcements. Expect MSU to win handily. 24* on Michigan State.