Tom Scott
South Alabama vs Butler
Play ON: BUTLER minus the points
I made this point in another publication for which I write after speaking with friends close to the Butler program: "Butler's players are insulted. They have 29 wins (only four other teams in this tourney have more and those are the four number one seeds!), went 12-2 against a decent non-conference schedule, won both their conference regular season and tournament, and own an RPI of 14. Yet they are seeded SEVENTH, meaning that 20 teams with worse records and at least TEN with worst RPI ratings are ahead of them. Not only that, they got sent to a site that definitely favors their opponent." South Alabama has nice numbers too but all of them fall short of Butler's figures. With the Bulldogs at 7-2 ATS in their last nine NCAA tourney games and South Alabama playing here for only their third game since 1990 (lost and failed to cover both), We'll take the team on a mission.
PREDICTION: BUTLER 76 - South Alabama 62
James Patrick Sports
St. Joseph’s vs. Oklahoma
The Sooners are a low scoring team that counts on their defense to keep them in games. With only (1) ATS win in their previous (11) tournament appearances we are not going to lay any points with a team that scores (60) ppg. Phil Martelli’s Hawks have enough offensive versatility to win a close game round one. Our Friday NCAA Tournament selection is St. Joseph’s Hawks.
Great Lakes
Austin Peay vs Texas
Play on: Texas Longhornes
The Longhornes are 16-12 ATS this year, and are 8-4 ATS when the total is between 140 to 149.5 this year. The Longhornes are also 3-1 |ATS in all tournament games this year while Austin Peay is a terrible 1-6 ATS as an underdog this year. We look for the Texas Longhornes to destroy Austin Peay for the ATS Win & cover today.
Vegas Sports Pics
Arkansas Razorbacks + 2 over Indiana Hoosiers
No.22 Indiana (25-7) is 1-3 last four games including a 68-64 loss at (15-16) Penn State. The Hoosiers are 2-5 ATS last seven games vs. the SEC. Arkansas (22-11) is 3-1 last four games including a 92-91 win over No.4 Tennessee in the SEC tournament.
Texas Longhorns - 16 over Austin Peay Governors
Austin Peay (24-10) is in the NCAAs for the first time since a first round loss to then No.5 Louisville 86-64 in 2003. No.6 Texas (28-6) which beat two No.1 ranked teams this season is shooting 52.7 percent allowing 40.9 percent shooting over its last five games.
St. Joseph's Hawks + 2 over Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma (22-11) is 1-4 ATS last five NCAA games off losing to Wisc-Milw 82-74 in the 2006 first round. Saint Joseph's (21-12) is 3-1 last four games including a 61-53 A-10 tourney win over No.10 Xavier. Hawks are in the NCAAs for the first time since making the Elite Eight in 2004
The Prez
Texas -15.5
Texas vs. Austin Peay: There is a reason that the Longhorns are the sexy pick to reach the Final Four this April… They play in the strongest conference, the Big 12, and with two terrific early tournament matchups, figure to play the second weekend of games in Houston (home away from home, per se). After destroying Austin Peay on Friday, the talented squad will get the winner of the Miami-St. Mary’s game, after beating either, or both squads combined for that matter, they head to Houston for the regionals.
Texas is the strongest No. 2 seed without question, have the best balance from their backcourt to the paint, and once they reach the Sweet Sixteen and then the Elite Eight, they have a possible two games at the Alamodome in San Antonio.
First and foremost the team must get over their hard fought and physical defeat to Kansas in the Big 12 Championship game. Peay, who is balanced and offensive minded, can’t matchup with the quicker and bigger Longhorns. Peay has as much chance of winning on Friday as you do of hitting the lottery.
The Govs are seriously undersized in the post and must stay out of half court sets on the offensive end of the court; and the strength of their team, their guard play by Derek Wright (11.7 ppg) and Todd Babington (11.6 ppg), is neutralized by D.J. Augustin and A.J. Abrams.
The Longhorns are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite.
The Friday action play is on Texas minus the points over Peay.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Houston Rockets
Note: Rockets look to regain their winning ways off a pair of 20-point losses when they invade Golden State here tonight. According to our database, Houston responds well in this role as they are 4-0 ATS in games off back-to-back defeats of 20 or more points. They are also 15-2 SU and 14-3 ATS in this series as a dog or favorite of less than two points. Look for the Rockets to fire up tonight.
Jack Clayton
Villanova
MATTY O'SHEA
Matty O'Shea
Clemson / Villanova Over 142
Analysis: Both of these teams have played very well offensively on neutral courts this season, with Clemson averaging 82.6 points per game and Villanova averaging nearly 75. The Wildcats have also averaged 72.5 points in their last four games compared to almost 78 for the Tigers. In addition, the OVER is 11-3 in Clemson's last 14 non-conference games. Both teams feature strong guard play and should be rested enough to turn this game into a shootout. That's why I'm betting the OVER as my Single Dime NCAA Tournament Total Play O' the Day for Friday
RIGHT ANGLE SPORTS ( RAS)
FRIDAY
St. Mary's (+1) vs Miami Fla - 9:30am Pacific - Game #843-844
Everything fell together perfectly for the Gaels this season. With six key returners it was known they would be a good team, but no one had any idea how big of an impact late blooming Australian recruit Patrick Mills would make. Mills not only emerged as a consistent double digit scorer but led the team in assists and steals. Most importantly he made everyone on the team better. SMC has good size for a mid major, F Simpson and C Samhan are capable of playing with the big boys, and depth is solid with little dropoff in talent from 1 through 8. The Gaels are well coached, fundamentally sound, and can be successful playing different styles of basketball. SMC has beaten five different teams in the NCAA tournament field, are 11-5 in games away from home, and even played respectably at Texas. Miami has only beaten three NCAA tournament teams and are 8-8 in games away from home. The Hurricanes finished just .500 in a mediocre ACC and their two biggest wins came by just 1 and 3 points, both on their home court. After a 14-1 start, they are just 8-9 in last 17 games. Canes star guard McClinton went just 6-for-23 in two ACC tournament games. After shooting over 50% in November & December he is only .386 since. Expect the Gaels to get their first tournament win since 1959.
Play: St. Mary's +1 1 UNIT
Connecticut (-11) vs San Diego - 12:00pm Pacific - Game #827-828
Few teams enter the tournament as hot as the Huskies. UConn won 13 of their final 15 regular season games and if the Big East was not competitive enough, they added in a quality road win at Indiana in late January and a 12 point win over Georgia Tech in early February. All of this with third leading scorer Dyson (returned for last five games) missing nine games due to suspension. The Huskies lead the nation in blocked shots per game. Their superior size, strength, and athleticism figure to give San Diego fits. The Toreros have no business being in the dance, but parlayed home court advantage and a miracle comeback win in 2OT over St Mary's to upset Gonzaga in the WCC final. Before the WCC tournament USD went 2-8 (avg loss by 11.25 points) vs teams playing in the postseason, with one of those wins coming at Kentucky when the Wildcats were struggling and San Diego got four 3's from a walk-on freshman. San Diego lost starting guard Murdock (left team) midseason and returning rotation forward Fleming (injury redshirt) before the season. They have no seniors playing and only have 3 upperclassmen in the rotation. UConn will be the best team they have played all season and I do not expect a competitive game. The Huskies are still hungry from missing the tournament last year and will be focused. Give the points.
Play: Connecticut -11 1 UNIT
Fairway Jay
20* Underdog 1st Rd GOY: Saint Joes
Jimmy The Moose
Game: Toronto Maple Leafs at Buffalo Sabres
Prediction: over
Reason: The Maple Leafs are a beat up bunch that is having trouble scoring goals but tonight expect them to surrender a few. The Sabres have scored 20 goals in their last 3 games and that includes a 6-2 win vs. Toronto on March 15. The over is 13-3-1 in Buffalo's last 17 games overall. Buffalo has played over the total in 8 of their last 10 home games. The over is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games vs. a team with a losing record. Play the over.
EZ WINNERS
NBA
5 STAR: (820) GOLDEN STATE (-2) over Houston
(Risking $550 to win $500)
NCAA
2 STAR: (836) GONZAGA (+2) over Davidson
(Risking $220 to win $100)
2 STAR: (825) WESTERN KENTUCKY (+4) over Drake
(Risking $220 to win $200)
2 STAR: (843) ST. MARYS (+1) over Miami-Florida
(Risking $220 to win $200)
1 STAR: (847) SOUTH ALABAMA (+5) over Butler
(Risking $110 to win $100)
1 STAR: (851) OKLAHOMA (-1) over St. Josephs
(Risking $110 to win $100)
1 STAR: (823) SIENA (+6.5) over Vanderbilt
(Risking $110 to win $100)
Drew Gordon
1. 300,000* Mississippi State
2. 50,000* Arkansas
3. 50,000* Boise State
4. 50,000* Magic
Matt Fargo
St Joseph's vs. Oklahoma
Play: Oklahoma
St. Joseph’s is a very sexy pick right now to not only win this game but make a possible run in the tournament. After all, the Hawks beat Xavier twice over the last two weeks and almost won the Atlantic Ten Tournament. This is a solid team with a lot of veteran players that shoot good and do not turn the ball over but St. Joseph’s got a very tough draw in the first game. The majority of the public are eyeing a Hawks advancement but this matchup is not in their favor one bit.
Oklahoma is a team that is under the radar right now. The Sooners went 22-11 with a 10-8 mark in the Big XII yet no one seems to be talking about them. Maybe part of the reason is the fact that they were blown out against Texas in the Big XII Tournament, the third loss to the Longhorns this season. Prior to the last loss, Oklahoma had won four straight games and the makeup of this team is perfect for this first round game against an opponent that is at a disadvantage from the start.
This is the year of the freshman as talk about Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo and Derrick Rose are in all the headlines but one freshman is not getting the same press and that is Blake Griffin from Oklahoma. Listed at 6’10” and 245, Griffin is averaging 14.8 ppg and 9.2 rpg and is shooting 56.1 percent. He is third in the Big Twelve in shooting and fourth in rebounds. Joining him is 6’11” Longar Longar, making an Oklahoma frontcourt that the Hawks simply cannot matchup against.
Griffin may be a freshman but he picks it up in these types of games. He has 10 double/doubles and his last seven have come against NCAA Tournament teams, averaging 20.3 ppg and 14.7 rpg. The Sooners will have a big edge on the glass and winning that battle usually equates to a victory as Oklahoma is 16-4 when outrebounding their opponent. Defense has been strong of late as the Sooners have allowed 57 ppg on 38.6 percent shooting including 27.3 percent from long range over their last five games.
St. Joseph’s shoots well as mentioned and including long-range shooting. The Hawks rely heavily on their three-point shooting, with Pat Calathes hitting 40.3 percent and Rob Ferguson hitting 43.8 percent. Oklahoma has very quick defenders and it is allowing just 31.9 percent shooting from beyond the arc which is 29th in the country. St. Joseph’s allows 37 percent from long range which is not good as in its 22 wins, Oklahoma is shooting 39.8 percent from three-point range but just 25.9 percent in its 11 losses. Play Oklahoma Sooners 1 Unit
Greg Daraban
Creighton at Florida
Creighton beat Rhode Island 74-73 Tuesday.Florida crushed San Diego St 73-49.
Creighton very capable of staying close to Florida.The Blue Jays pull the upset.
Take Creighton