Ross Benjamin
Austin Peay vs. Texas
Pick: Texas -15.5
Any NCAA Tournament 1st round favorite that is off a neutral site underdog ATS loss, and has a win percentage of .794 or better is 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS since 1990. The favorite has won these 6 games by an average of 21.0 points per game. If they are a favorite of 15.0 or more then the system improves to 3-0 SU and ATS. The favorite wins those 3 games by an average of 26.7 points per game. Play on Texas minus the big number.
Sportsbettingstats
Arkansas Razorbacks (22-11) vs. #24 Indiana Hoosiers (25-7)
Arkansas comes into the Big Dance after losing their last game of the season in the finals of the SEC Tournament to the how Georgia Bulldogs 66-57, while Indiana lost to Minnesota 59-58 in the Big 10 Tournament. The Razorbacks had a good end to their season, as they reached the SEC Conference Tournament final beating 2 top 20 teams in the process. Indiana has not played well since their head coach resigned in a scandal. The Hoosiers lost 3 of their last 4 games. Arkansas is a well-balanced team having all three position players average over 11 ppg. In their loss against Georgia in the finals of the SEC Tournament Forward Sonny Weems and Darian Townes were the high scorers with 17 points each. In that game the Razorbacks shot 23/52 for a field goal percentage of 44.2%. Arkansas was out rebounded in that game 37-31. On defense the Razorbacks played well in the loss only allowing Georgia to shoot only 23/59 for a field goal percentage of 39%. Guard Eric Gordon, who against Minnesota scored 16 points but only shot 4/13 from the field, leads Indiana. In that game the Hoosiers did not shoot well shooting 16/50 for a dismal field goal percentage of 32%. In the game Indiana out rebounded Minnesota 35-30. On defense Indiana played well holding Minnesota to 19/56 shooting for a field goal percentage of 33.9%.
Staff Pick: The winner of this game gets the unenviable task of playing #1 North Carolina in the second round. Both these teams have won National Championships, but in the last couple of years neither team has been a title contender. It is interesting how the Hoosiers are the better offensive team, while the Razorbacks are the better defensive team, which is switch from past years. Even though this is the case the Razorbacks are playing like they did when they shot to national prominence in the early 90's, as they play in a fast paced style. The Razorbacks need to keep their momentum alive and keep the scorers from Indiana in check. The Razorbacks can score from anywhere, being a very well balanced team. Look for a close game but for the Razorbacks win, as they are playing better at the moment and defense wins in the NCAA Tournament.
Razorbacks 59 Hoosiers 56
Lee Kostroski top rated 6 unit play Arkansas
Dr Bob
I don't have any Best Bets on Friday, as you'll find out below that the teams in favorable situations also had negative line value. I do have some strong opinions and other leans though. I'll release Saturday's Round 2 games on Saturday morning at 8:15 am Pacific on my Best Bets Release page.
Villanova (+6) over Clemson
My ratings favor Clemson by 6 ½ points but Villanova is at their best under coach Jay Wright as an underdog or pick (50-30-2 ATS), in non-conference games (44-30-2 ATS) and when Wright has had 3 or more days off to prepare for a game (58-38-1 ATS). All 3 of those positives apply to this game and the Wildcats are 22-10-1 ATS as a dog or pick with 3 or more days off and 16-6-1 ATS as a dog or pick against non-conference opponents (6-1 ATS with 3 or more days off). Wright’s team is 2-0 ATS as a dog in NCAA tournament play and I’ll lean slightly with Villanova at +6 points or more.
Vanderbilt (-6 ½) versus Siena
Vanderbilt is the worst #4 seed I can ever remember and my ratings favor the Commodores by only 4 ½ points against a solid Siena team that was good enough to beat Stanford earlier in the season (although Stanford was without star Brook Lopez for that game). While the line value favors the Saints, but situation favors Vandy, who applies to a 76- 27-3 ATS first round situation. I’ll pass this one.
Drake (-4) versus Western Kentucky
Drake is 28-4 straight up and 21-7 ATS and the Bulldogs are still underrated. My ratings favor Drake by 6 points in this game and the Bulldogs play their best when they need to play well to win. That characteristic is the reason that Drake is just 4-5 ATS when favored by 7 points or more and an incredible 17-2 ATS when not favored by more than 6 points (i.e. games in which they need to play well to win). Unfortunately Drake applies to a negative 5-28 ATS first round situation that will keep me from playing the Bulldogs in this game. I’ll pass.
Connecticut (-10 ½) versus San Diego
San Diego started the season with a 6-8 record, but the Toreros improved greatly when poor shooting guard Ray Murdock (33% shooting) was injured just before Christmas. In their first game without Murdock bringing their offense down the Toreros won by 9 points at Kentucky as a 13 point dog, which was the start of a 15-5 finish in which they were 14-5 ATS (8-1 ATS as an underdog) and included wins over Gonzaga and two wins against St. Mary’s. The oddsmakers are pricing San Diego based on their entire season instead of just in the games without Murdock and the Toreros are 3 points better in their final 20 games than they are for the entire season. My ratings favor U Conn by only 8 points in this game, so the line value continues to favor San Diego. Unfortunately, the Toreros apply to a negative 3-20-1 ATS subset of a 28-73-2 ATS situation while the Huskies apply to a 23-3 ATS first round angle. I will be forced to pass on this game with the situations going one way and the line value significantly favoring the other side.
North Carolina (-25) versus Mount St. Mary’s
My ratings favor North Carolina by 25 points playing here in Raleigh, which is an advantage, and the line is 25 points. There are no situations favoring either side, but #1 seeds coming off a win are 11-1 ATS in first round games when favored by 24 points or less (including Kansas on Thursday), so I’d lean with North Carolina at -24 points or less.
Indiana (-2) over Arkansas
This game would have been a Best Bet if Indiana hadn’t played so much worse under interim coach Dan Dakich down the stretch after Kelvin Sampson resigned. After all my ratings favor the Hoosiers by 3 points using all games this season and IU applies to a decent 29-6 ATS first round situation while Arkansas applies to a negative 6-30-1 ATS situation. I decided to pass on Indiana because they are just 1-5 ATS since Sampson resigned and the players haven’t played with as much intensity. That should change with this being the NCAA Tournament, but I decided not to take that chance. I’ll consider Indiana a Strong Opinion at -2 or less and I’ll lean with the Hoosiers at -2 ½ or -3 points.
Maryland Baltimore County (+17) over Georgetown
My ratings favor Georgetown by 16 points in this game, so there was certainly a good reason for the line on this game to plummet from the opening number of 19 points down to 17 points. I’ll lean slightly with UMBC at +17 points or more.
Davidson (-2) versus Gonzaga
Davidson is a very good team that played competitively with North Carolina, Duke and UCLA this season, so facing the Zags will certainly not be intimidating for them – especially with the advantage of playing this game in nearby Raleigh. My ratings favor Davidson by 3 ½ points but Gonzaga applies to a solid 57-17-1 ATS first round situation so I will be forced to pass on this game.
Memphis (-24 ½) over Texas Arlington
Texas Arlington was good enough to win the lowly Southland Conference, but the Mavericks are likely to get blown out by a Memphis squad that destroyed bad teams this season. Arlington isn’t as good now as they were early in the season, as the loss of starting guard Brandon Long (12.3 ppg, 36.4% 3-pointers) after 9 games dropped their level of play for the rest of the season. Texas Arlington is also at a disadvantage as a big underdog as a team that likes to play at a faster than normal pace, as the more possessions per game the more opportunities the much better team has of extending the margin of victory. Using only Arlington’s games without Long and adjusting for the fast pace of this game results in a fair line of Memphis by 27 points and I’ll lean with Memphis at -25 points or less.
Oregon (+2 ½) over Mississippi State
Miss State and Oregon State are about the same in level of play for the season and the only reason the Bulldogs have a better record than the Ducks is because they played the 78th toughest schedule in the nation while Oregon played the nation’s 4th toughest schedule. Miss State didn’t play quite as well against better competition and my ratings favor Oregon by ½ a point in this game. I’ll lean with Oregon plus the points.
Texas (-15 ½) versus Austin Peay
Texas applies to a decent 65-35-2 ATS situation, but the Longhorns don’t play as well against lesser teams and they’re just 13-27-1 ATS as a favorite of more than 13 points against teams with a win percentage of greater than .334 under coach Rick Barnes. My ratings favor Texas by 16 points, so the line is about right. I’ll pass this game.
St. Mary’s Cal (+1) over Miami-Florida
St. Mary’s applies to a 22-2-1 ATS situation while Miami applies to a negative 0-14-1 ATS subset of a 6-30-1 ATS first round situation. While the technical analysis clearly favors the Gaels, I decided to pass on making this game a Best Bet. St. Mary’s doesn’t play as well away from home against other good teams and my NCAA tournament ratings, which take that into account, favor Miami by 2.3 points. The situation is more significant than the line value going against the Gaels, so I’ll still lean with St. Mary’s at +1 or more.
American (+19 ½) over Tennessee
One ingredient that is advantageous in a big underdog is playing at a slow pace, which is something that American University certainly does. The Eagles averaged only 61 possessions per game this season, which is much lower than the national average of 67 possessions and those 6 possessions per game result in about 1 ½ points when the difference between the two teams is as much as it is in this game. Tennessee plays at a fast pace (73 possessions per game) and this game should be played right around the national average of 67 possessions, but that’s 6 possessions fewer than the Vols normally have. Tennessee won their games by an average of 11.5 points this season and they would have won by an average of 10.6 points had they played at a pace of 67 possessions per game. Every point in college basketball is worth nearly 4% in your chance of covering the spread, so paying attention to pace in games involving big spreads is worthwhile. My ratings favor Tennessee by only 17 points after adjusting for pace and I’ll lean with American at +18 points or more.
South Alabama (+5) over Butler
South Alabama applies to a 34-5 ATS subset of a 92-33-3 ATS first round situation, but Butler is a much better team when they are motivated by good competition and the Bulldogs have a history of playing much better against non-conference opponents (51-27-1 ATS) than they do against Horizon League foes that are accustomed to their style of play (54-67-6 ATS in conference games). Butler is 5-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament in recent years and my ratings favor the Bulldogs by 5 ½ points. South Alabama is still the side to be on here given the strong general situation but I’ll resist making the Jaguars a Best Bet given Butler’s ability to turn up their level of play when they need to (they dominated the Horizon Conference Tournament after sleep walking through the regular season conference schedule). I’ll consider South Alabama a Strong Opinion at +5 or more and I’ll lean with the Jags at +4 ½ or +4.
Louisville (-13) over Boise State
Louisville applies to a solid 45-14 ATS first round situation and my ratings favor the Cardinals by 14 ½ points in this game. Boise State, however, is a good shooting team (51% FG, 42% 3-pointers) and teams that shoot that well are usually better as underdogs since good outside shooting isn’t affected as much by the talent level of the opponents. It’s no surprise that Boise is 7-2 ATS as an underdog or pick this season and the Broncos are also 50-28 ATS under their current coach when facing a team coming off a straight up loss. I’m not going to put too much stock in that trend, but it one more thing that kept me from playing Louisville as a Best Bet in this game. The Cardinals are still the side to play and I’ll consider Louisville a Strong Opinion at -13 or less and I’ll lean with the Cardinals are -13 ½ or -14 points.
Oklahoma (-1) versus St. Joseph’s
St. Joseph’s played their best this season against better teams and they were certainly underrated heading into the Atlantic 10 Tournament, which they won by beating Xavier and Temple. Oklahoma has been pretty inconsistent this season but the Sooners are a solid team when healthy, as they are now. My ratings favor Oklahoma by 1 point in this game and the line has already come down from 2 ½ to 1, so there is no line value favoring either side now. I have no opinion on this game, although I did take St. Joe’s in my pool.
Josh Dean
300* S. Alabama
100* Miss. St.
100* Nets
Free Pick: Hou/GS UNDER
Bobby Maxwell
Villanova +6 vs. Clemson
After splitting with our FREE college plays Thursday we've got a second winner coming tonight as we go with Villanova and grab the points against Clemson.
Clemson hasn't been in the Big Dance for 10 years so look for some nerves from the Tigers in this one and we like how Villanova closed the season. Look for this game to come down to the wire so take the points and the underdog Wildcats.
Villanova finished the season 6-3 and they are in the tourney for the fourth straight year. And this teams knows how to step up on a neutral site, going 13-4 ATS the last 17 times they've been 'dogs on a neutral court.
The Wildcats are tourney tested and their Big East schedule was brutal, playing the likes of Georgetown, Pitt, West Virginia and Louisville seemingly night in and night out.
Clemson didn't have a cakewalk in the ACC but this team relies on an up-and-down game too much and tries to get the game at a hectic pace and we all know NCAA games tend to slow down and become more of a halfcourt affair. The Tigers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight when favored on a neutral court.
Go ahead and grab the points and play Wildcats in this one.
3* VILLANOVA
Michael Cannon
Villanova vs. Clemson -6
A 1-1 split on my freebies yesterday as Pitt rolls but Byu fails to cash in.
Lay the points with Clemson tonight when they take on Villanova.
I didn't think Villanova deserved an invite to the Big Dance and you're going to see why after Clemson gets done with them.
The Tigers bring a lot of experience to the table, plus they get a big boost from their quick point guard Demontez Stitt and the sharp-shooting Terrence Oglesby.
Their presence has allowed the rest of the lineup to do their own things.
Clemson has also put forth a much better effort on defense this season, including a press that can wear down Villanova.
Villanova is 0-5 ATS in its last five appearances in the tournament. They are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after a SU defeat.
Clemson is a solid 10-4 ATS in its last 14 non-conference tilts.
Lay the points as Clemson grabs the win and cover.
2* CLEMSON
Arkansas +2 vs.Indiana
A split with my freebies yesterday as Pitt rolls to the easy win and cover but Byu comes up short.
Take Arkansas as the small dog in the East Regional over Indiana.
I know Indiana possesses the talent that could have led them to a higher seeding, but the forced resignation of coach Kelvin Sampson led to the Hoosiers undoing down the stretch. They lost three of their last four games, and covered only one of the six since Sampson stepped down.
Arkansas seemed to hit its stride down the stretch in the up tempo system of coach John Pelphrey.
Indiana forward D. J. White figures to have a tough time against the big frontcourt of Arkansas, which rolls out four players at least 6-10.
That will put more pressure on guard Eric Gordon to provide the offense from the perimeter, and the freshman struggled down the stretch, shooting just 34 percent with 31 turnovers in the last seven games
Take Arkansas as the small dog as their defense carries them tonight and they stay within the number.
3* ARKANSAS
Joel Tyson
Western Kentucky +4 vs Drake
Take the points and back the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers as they make their first tournament appearance in five years. Should be a great match up for this WKU team, as Drake likes to play a similar style of up and down, and shoot the three. Drake makes the tournament for the first time since 1971 after being picked to finish 9th in the preseason. Western comes in 12th in the country in scoring at 77 ppg, and features a very athletic bunch. The Toppers worse loss of the year came against Southern Illinois, which was a 10-point defeat. As for the Toppers other five losses, they came by a total of 21 points. As I stated Drake like to shoot the three, but WKU does pretty well against the three only allowing the opposition to make 33% of their attempts. What often makes the difference however in these tournament games is a team’s depth, and WKU holds this advantage. The WKU bench is averaging 26 ppg, and the Toppers feature two big men over 6-7 in the paint that will bottle up Drakes one big threat inside. Take the points and play WKU to stay tight.
2* WKU
St. Marys +1 vs Miami-Florida
Take the small point and lts play with the Gaels today when they take of the ACC’s Miami Hurricanes. St. Marys stumbled slightly down the stretch, but this does not deter me away from looking for them to pick this win and cover up here today. Miami after all has been one of the most inconsistent teams I have seen all year, and their stretch run was nothing impressive either as the Canes dropped three of their last six. Despite St Marys stumbles they still managed to post up an average of 73.0 ppg over their last five games, while Miami put up an average of 66.5 over the same span. St Marys likes to spread the court and if they are successful in doing this today they will be successful in the outcome as well. The Gaels are bigger overall, and more consistent I feel, and will win this game while covering.
3* ST MARYS
Gambling Hotline
Maryland Baltimore County vs. GEORGETOWN -16'
Our overall comp play run stands at 120-99-4.
Afternoon action today in Raleigh, and while Maryland Baltimore and Georgetown are close in proximity, we feel that is about all they are close in.
Even though Georgetown is not known as a "blowout" team, the Hoyas will not want to give the Retrievers any kind of room for local "bragging" rights, so expect G-Town to bring it strong all afternoon long.
The Hoyas had won 7 in a row - covering 5 of those 7 - prior to their no-show against Pittsburgh in the Big East Championship Game. The matchups were all wrong for Georgetown in that one, as the Panthers are one of the few teams that can be physical with the Hoyas. That is not the case today.
In their lone meeting with a Big East school this season, the Retrievers were on the short-side of an 86-62 pasting at West Virginia. Georgetown just pasted West Virginia in the Big East Tourney.
This one will get ugly.
Play on Georgetown.
3* GEORGETOWN
Drew Gordon
St. Mary's +1 vs. Miami-Florida
While Miami and coach Haith were excited to earn the 7th seed in the South Bracket, that excitement will be short-lived, as they face off against a strong St. Mary's squad this afternoon. Fact of the matter is this is a bad match up for the 'Canes for several reasons:
While you'll hear a lot about the Hurricanes Jack McClinton, its the Gaels' sensational freshman PG Patrick Mills that you'll remember after this contest. He may not have McClinton's long range touch, but he can penetrate and score (or dish) with the best of them. Don't sleep on Gales' G Todd Golden either, as he's a 3-point specialist (45% on the season), who'll make Miami pay for any defensive lapses.
The biggest issue Miami has is matching up with the Gaels frontline. 'Canes forwards can be maddeningly inconsistent, especially Dwayne Collins, who scores 26 points against Duke, and then disappears for the rest of the season... And he's their best post player!
Gaels, on the other hand, have three solid options in the frontcourt between Diamon Simpson (13 ppg, 9 rpg, 53 swats), Omar Samhan (10 ppg, 7 rpg, 40 swats), and Ian O'Leary (7 ppg, 4 rpg). All three match up well with the 'Canes forwards, and with the help of their superior point guard play (led by Mills), and a dead-eye 3-point specialist to open up the floor (Todd Golden), this game is St. Mary's for the taking.
Bottom line, the Gaels may be the lower seed, but the match ups dictate a much different story here. McClinton is the best scorer on the floor, but he has the tendency to ball-hog, all while the rest of the 'Canes just stand by and watch. Gaels offense is far more balanced and consistent, and that'll be the difference in this contest.
Take St. Mary's plus the points over Miami-Florida in this NCAA Tournament First Round match up.
3* ST. MARY'S
Karl Garrett
St. Joseph's +1 vs. OKLAHOMA
The G-Man gave you a winner last night on Texas A&M to make it a 6-3 run the last 9 days with my free plays
#11 vs. #6 tonight, and the line on this St. Joseph's-Oklahoma game tells me all I need to know about who is going to win.
The Hawks are the easy call in this one, as St. Joseph's owns a decided edge at the point, and they have the size and versatility with Ferguson, and Calathes to do damage to the defensive-minded Sooners in this neutral site game.
Oklahoma was not a very lucrative play away from Norman this season, as they went just 6-9 against the spread on the highway this season.
St. Joe's counters with a money-making 13-6 spread mark on the road this year, and the fact the Hawks twice beat Xavier in the closing days of the season tells the G-Man they can hang with this OU team tonight.
Oklahoma has been held in the 40's three times in their last seven games!
Limited offense proves to be a bad mix at this time of the year.
Take the Hawks.
4* ST. JOSEPH'S
Bobby Maxwell
St. Joseph's +1' vs. Oklahoma
Split our two FREE plays in the opening round of the tourney Thursday as UNLV delivered a winner for us but Arizona went down in the nightcap. Today we've got a complimentary winner with St. Joseph's as the Hawks take on Oklahoma.
What a run St. Joseph's made in the Atlantic-10 tourney, reaching the championship game by beating the likes of Fordham, Richmond and Xavier (3-0 ATS) before falling to Temple in the title game.
The Hawks went 4-1 on a neutral court this season and held the opposition to 59.4 points and 39.9 percent shooting on neutral courts. Meanwhile they shot 51.6 percent from the floor and averaged 70.4 points.
St. Joseph's also doesn't mind going on the highway, finishing this season 13-6 ATS away from home while Oklahoma was just 6-9 ATS in a strange environment.
The Sooners failed to cover either game in the Big 12 tourney, beating Colorado 54-49 but coming up short as nine-point favorites and then they got drilled by Texas 77-49 as a 5 1/2-point 'dog. They are just 3-5 ATS in their last eight overall.
Here comes your classic upset in the Big Dance. Go ahead and grab the points and play St. Joseph's in this one, but don't be surprised when the Hawks win this one outright.
4* ST. JOSEPH'S
Jim Feist
LA Clippers and POR Trail Blazers.
Take " POR Trail Blazers"
Portland had a great run early in the season, surprising for such a young team, but then cooled off. Well now this young team is offering value again, led by star guard Brandon Roy and fiery coach Nate McMillan. Portland is 4-0 Su/ATS the last 4 games as a favorite, and they are rested for this game. They take on an LA Clipper team that has packed in the season, on a 2-12 SU, 3-11 ATS run. The Blazers have sold out 19 games in a row at home and can give that crowd a blowout win over a very bad team.
Blazers
MIA Heat and CHA Bobcats.
Take " CHA Bobcats".
Charlotte is home after a long road trip. The Bobcats have been under the radar, going 8-3 ATS the last 11 games. They.5?re a young team that struggles on the road, but at home they have winning records, both SU and ATS. Miserable Miami is 6-27 on the road and comes into this one in a terrible situational handicapping spot, playing their 4th game in 5 nights, while Charlotte is rested.
Bobcats
THE GOLD SHEET
KEY RELEASES
ARKANSAS by 7 over Indiana
MISSISSIPPI STATE by 12 over Oregon
THE SPORTS REPORTER
(1) NORTH CAROLINA vs. (16) MOUNT ST. MARY’S
-- Tarheels were extended to win ACC tournament,staging second-half rallies to put
away Virginia Tech and Clemson. But sustained intensity’s lone question in this price
range, versus either possible play-in opponent, with Tyler Hansbrough operating inside,
Wayne Ellington sharpshooting, and a healthy Ty Lawson at the controls. Northeast
Conference tourney champs Mount St. Mary’s found way after beating Sacred Heart at
their place, but guards Jeremy Goode and Chris Vann were overwhelmed on the road
at Oklahoma (by 24), at American (by 19), at George Washington (by 15), and at James
Madison by a dozen! Play-in foe Coppin State won their four Mid-Eastern Athletic
Conference tourney games by a total of six points behind Tywain McKee, finishing with
12-1 run after opening 4-19! MEAC’s ATS history in Dance is >.500, though conference-
winning seventh seeds aren’t our preferred vehicles, baby.
NORTH CAROLINA 94 MOUNT ST. MARY’S 67
(8) INDIANA vs. (9) ARKANSAS -- The Hoosiers boast considerable core talent,
but shot-selection quality deteriorated after Dan Dakich took over, resulting in bad
losses to Michigan State, Penn State – and to Minnesota in the Hoosier’s one-and-done
tournament experience. Whether you’re going to see the best efforts of Eric Gordon, D.
J. White and Jordan Crawford in this spot seems problematic. John Pelphrey’s Hogs
overcame spotty guard play to make the SEC tournament finals, behind F Sonny
Weems, shooting guard Patrick Beverly, and C Darian Townes, taking out Tennessee and
Vanderbilt in the process. Their uptempo style can disconcert distracted Big 10 entry
with questionable focus.
ARKANSAS 71 INDIANA 70
(6) OKLAHOMA vs. (11) ST. JOSEPH’S – Power ratings have dictated Big
XII Sooners’ slight favoritism over A-10’s Hawks, but we beg to differ. Respect OU’s
road win at West Virginia, but St. Joe’s played most of their name opponents tough
before finally crashing over down the stretch to beat Xavier twice in eight days, including
in their conference tourney semis. “Bounce” losses to Dayton and Temple followed,
respectively, but loss to Owls was their fourth game in four days, and forgivable. 6’10”
Blake Griffin, 6’7” Taylor Griffin and 6’11” Longar Longar are formidable, but Hawks can
match up with 6’10” G/F Pat Calathes and 6’9” Ahmad Nivens. And I’ll take Phil Martelli
over Jeff Capel any day. Hawks’ stalwart man “D” keeps this tight, with points well
worth taking.
ST. JOSEPH’S 60 OKLAHOMA 56
(3) LOUISVILLE vs. (14) BOISE STATE – We’re looking at a pair of zonedefense
and 3-point-shooting adherents, here, and facing the Broncos, Rick Pitino’s
crew will be staring down a lesser defensive effectiveness. Earl Clark and David
Padgett can light it up, and if Jerry Smith and Edgar Sosa do their part, doubt senior
forwards Reggie Larry and Matt Nelson can keep pace, Larry and Nelson’s free-throw
shooting is below par, which may hinder their staying in touch. 3 OT struggle in WAC
final may have lingering effects. Boise lost to the Ville in their last Dance appearance,
in ’94. Once more, with feeling.
LOUISVILLE 81, BOISE STATE 65
BJCC, Birmingham, AL
(7) BUTLER vs. (10) SOUTH ALABAMA -- South Alabama is a team with
serious talent – specifically 20 ppg scorer Demetric Bennett. Unfortunately, they won’t
be able to stretch their collective legs against the methodical Butler Bulldogs, who play
as efficient a game as any team in the country. South Alabama can score well, but they
are prone to turnovers, which is a killer against the surgical fellas from Indianapolis. If
they can limit the empty possessions, it will be a solid battle, but this Butler squad hit
the Sweet 16 last year and are even more confident this year.
BUTLER 67-61
(2) TENNESSEE vs. (15) AMERICAN -- Bruce Pearl’s squad will be seeing
red after losing in the SEC tourney. The Vols are a balanced, athletic bunch that will
have their way with the turnover prone Eagles. For American to keep it respectable,
they’ll need to hit double-digit threes. 40% of their shot attempts are from behind the
arc and they do hit at a 41% clip – but their best shooter is 5’11 Garrisson Carr who
will have trouble against the bigger Vol defenders. This is a tune-up for the #2 seed,
one that could help them prepare for Butler should it fall that way.
Tennessee wants to play South Alabama in the second round – not ‘cause their
Southern folk – but because they like to get up and down the floor. That said, Pearl’s
bunch is too experienced and talented for this group.
TENNESSEE 81-59
(1) MEMPHIS vs. (16) TEXAS-ARLINGTON -- After back-to-back trips to
the Elite 8, it’s the Final Four or bust for Calipari’s bunch. Both of these teams play an
up-tempo style – trouble for the #16 seed is that they turn it over more, don’t play as
much defense, and are smaller than the #1 seed. The Tigers frontcourt of Dorsey and
Dozier will be there to pick up the infrequent misses from their backcourt mates.
MEMPHIS 84-57
(8) MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. (9) OREGON - Under-achieving athletic teams
square off on Friday in Little Rock. The point guards will tell the story of this one.
Mississippi St.’s Jamont Gordon is a 6’4 225 lb. linebacker playing the one-guard spot
SEC clubs forced other players to beat them, so we’ll see if Ernie Kent and his staff go
to school on that. As Tajuan Porter goes – so go the Ducks. Porter could have trouble if
matched against the much bigger Gordon. As a team, the Bulldogs play better defense,
limiting opponents to under 39% shooting on the season. Oregon will struggle keeping
Gordon out of the lane, meaning that he’ll be able to create and wreak havoc. Bulldogs
win it late.
MISSISSIPPI STATE 74-70
Alltel Arena, Little Rock, AR
(7) MIAMI-FL over (10) ST. MARY’S - St. Mary’s boss Randy Bennett
learned a valuable lesson in a disgusting loss to USD in the WCC semi-final – his team
ain’t good playing half-court hoops. He’s in luck – Miami wants no part of a half-court
game either. The Gaels are flying a bit under the radar after their late season fold, but
make no mistake, they have talent. Frosh guard Patty Mills can handle, create, and
score (just ask Oregon, he hung 37 on them). The ‘Canes are just okay on D and would
rather expend their breath taking shots. With 44% of Miami’s points coming from their
guards, the guards need to be on. If they’re not – they’ll shoot their team right out of
the game. The Gaels play good defense, so backboards beware. Miami does crash the
offensive glass with force, but St. Mary’s frontcourt goes 6’11, 6’7, 6’7, so it won’t be
easy picking. It’s easy to take the ACC team over the west coasters who didn’t make
their conference tourney final. Resist the urge.
ST. MARY’S 73-65
(2) TEXAS vs. (15) AUSTIN PEAY - Texas’ guards are the engine that drives
this machine. The Governors will find that guarding Augustin and Abrams is really
tough. They had trouble playing defense in the Ohio Valley for goodness sakes. Austin
Peay also does not rebound well – a strength of Rick Barnes’ team. The Longhorns are
not big or deep – so for that reason the #15 seed could hang for a while. Remember –
Texas is coming off of a late Sunday game – so Barnes will look to play guys that only
see the floor in practice. Beware of the backdoor cover.
TEXAS 76-62
5) CLEMSON vs. (12) VILLANOVA -- Forged in the heat of the harshest
ACC fires, Tigers scarcely ready to toss in their Dance cards yet, after beating Duke
off 22 losses to the Blue Devils and subsequently giving the ‘Heels a giant headache
before yielding grudgingly. This tourney run was no fluke, as should be demonstrated,
here. ‘Cats are in, since Big East opening-rounder vs. the Cuse served as a playin
game, but guards Scottie Reynolds and Dante Cunningham are the heart of the
offense, and don’t expect those ‘Cats to survive the defensive onslaught Cliff
Hammonds, K. C. Rivers and James Mays will bring on. At the least, ‘Cats offensive
rhythm will be severely affected, to their detriment. Non-physical Big East team
knuckles under.
CLEMSON 77-68
(3) VANDERBILT vs. (13) SIENA -- Saints alive! Commodores have
enjoyed a quality campaign, but appeared to wear down a tad physically, in the late
going, and the pride of Loudonville, NY should be in this, throughout. You catch Vandy
away from that trick home court of theirs, and you have a shot, and with decent
guards like the Saints’ Edwin Ubiles and Kenny Hasbrouck, you have more than that.
The Metro Atlantic champs caught Stanford at the tail-end of an odd Eastern trip, and
rolled by 12, and traveled to Boise State and demolished them in Bracket Busters.
Some bad losses are evident, yes, but the near-term focus will be there for HC Fran
McCaffery, and with Vandy staring into the barrel of Clemson/Kansas should they get
past this, this spot for this dog is most-alluring, against a team which lives and dies
with the “3.”
VANDERBILT 78-74
RBC Center, Raleigh, NC
(7) GONZAGA vs. (10) DAVIDSON -- The Zags are a household name every
March – but you can live on your rep for only so long. Davidson was tourney ready
last year, but drew a tough match up against an ultra-athletic Maryland team. The
tourney committee was a bit nicer this year. Davidson sophomore guard Stephen
Curry is a scoring machine (25 ppg) who can get his shot at any time. His supporting
cast can play some ball as well and will give Mark Few’s team fits. As for the
Bulldogs – they simply are not as good as they have been in the past for two main
reasons – (1) lack of productive big men – Kuso looks lost in the low post and
Heytvelt would rather hang out at the top of the key; and (2) no pure shooter – several
guys can hit the three at times, but they can hit scoring droughts against more
athletic defenders. Point guard Pargo may have to expend his energy defending
Curry, leaving less for the offensive end.
DAVIDSON 75-66
(2) GEORGETOWN vs. (15) UMBC -- The Hoyas struggle against teams
that defend the perimeter and rebound well. Enter UMBC – a team that struggles on
the defensive end and can’t keep teams off of the offensive glass. They can score
with the best of ‘em, but the Hoyas are allowing opponents to hit only 40% of 2’s and
30% of 3’s on the season. The Retrievers of UMBC may need a St. Bernard to dig
them out of the RBC Center when this one is over.
GEORGETOWN 72-52
5) DRAKE vs. (12) WESTERN KENTUCKY -- Too bad Bulldogs were
dealt another mid-major blessed with considerable heart, rather than a fat powerconference
reputation team ripe for the plucking. We’d have to lay fewer points. But
amazing Drake’s blessed with seniors Adam Emmenecker (a former walk-on!) and
Klayton Korver, providing priceless leadership for HC Keno Davis. This team can drive
and kick the ball out with the best of them. They only have two guys over 6’6” but
they ravaged the Missouri Valley, went to Butler and throttled them on Bracket Buster
Saturday, and are capable of surprising feats. WKU emerged from the Sun Belt
Tournament, as we suspected they would, but they’ll be facing bright people, playing
basketball as it should be played.
DRAKE 76-62
(4) CONNECTICUT vs. (13) SAN DIEGO -- UConn missed the Dance last
year, but Jim Calhoun had ably laid the groundwork for a comeback campaign, and
once the Big East schedule commenced, the improvements became apparent. But
there were character issues, which forced the lengthy absence of the likes of talented
G Jerome Dyson. Abundant talent abounds (G A. J. Price, and stalwart defensive C
Hasheem Thabeet, etc., etc.), but the ball-control is frequently unsteady. This is
unlikely to hinder the cause against San Diego, who were blessed by the West Coast
Conference playing their tournament on the Toreros’ home court, and took full advantage.
The class difference, here? Too much. But Drake matches up splendidly against
these Huskies.
CONNECTICUT 74-55