Alex Smart
Game: Siena vs. Vanderbilt
Prediction: Siena
Siena(22-10) prepares to face a strong Vanderbilt(26-7) team that some of the pundits have chosen , as possible dark horse contenders. Im in disagreement, as Im thinking their opponents today are very capable of upending their SEC opponents the Commodores in surprising fashion. This Siena Saints basketball program, has a history, of pulling off upsets, as was the case 19 years ago when they upset Stanford in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Look for the Saints , to figure out a way to keep , Vandy super star guard Shan Foster , under wraps, and for this well coached intelligent group , to give us the cover. Final notes & Key Trends: Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and are 8-2 ATS L/10 as a 6.5 or less. Play on Siena
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Davidson -2
Davidson has won 22 games in a row. How’s that for momentum? This is a Wildcats team which took North Carolina and Duke down to the wire in the non-conference season. I like Davidson to move on against a Gonzaga team which isn’t nearly as good as it’s been in years past. Davidson is 31-10 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games since 1997 and 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. The Wildcats are 11-1 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season and 7-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. The Cats can score and they also play great defensive. I like Davidson here.
Tony Karpinski
San Diego vs. Connecticut
Play: Connecticut
Few teams enter the tournament as hot as the Huskies. UConn won 13 of their final 15 regular season games and if the Big East was not competitive enough, they added in a quality road win at Indiana in late January and a 12 point win over Georgia Tech in early February. All of this with third leading scorer Dyson (returned for last five games) missing nine games due to suspension. The Huskies lead the nation in blocked shots per game. Their superior size, strength, and athleticism figure to give San Diego fits. The Toreros have no business being in the dance, but parlayed home court advantage and a miracle comeback win in 2OT over St Mary's to upset Gonzaga in the WCC final. Before the WCC tournament USD went 2-8 (avg loss by 11.25 points) vs teams playing in the postseason, with one of those wins coming at Kentucky when the Wildcats were struggling and San Diego got four 3's from a walk-on freshman. UCONN rolls behind their veteran head coach.
Billy Coleman
NBA
4* Toronto
4* over Memphis
3* Orlando
3* under Portland
College
5* Over Davidson
4* Vandy
3* So. Alabama
3* Miss St.
Arena
3* Columbus
Brad Diamond
This afternoon we suggest the Drake Bulldogs who are a perfect 7-0 ATS after winning their prior game by more than 20 points. In addition, the feisty MVC unit is 13-3 ATS vs. a .600+ opponent. It's Drake over Western Kentucky!
WINNING POINTS
Little Rock, AR
Memphis over Texas-Arlington by 21
If you want to take a shot against Memphis, you gotta like that Arlington has three players
in its top six minute-getters who go 6-9, 260, 6-7, 230 and 6-5, 250. No undersized
group of three-point chuckers will be hanging around against the Tigers. You want a
group like North Texas last season who are big enough to bump with Dozier, Dorsey
and Taggart, not foul out, and force Memphis to the line (just 59.5% on free throws)
while hoping that Calipari goes to his bench early and often while looking ahead to
either Oregon or Mississippi State. MEMPHIS, 78-57.
Oregon over Mississippi State by 1
Rick Stansbury, or Ernie Kent in a high-profile Tournament game? Cruel, cruel choice.
Mississippi State can clog the lane on defense with Varnado and Rhodes, cutting off
Oregon dribble penetration by some quick guards. Even lanky Ducks? forward Maarty
Leunen likes to get in the lane when he can. But with that particular option covered,
Oregon becomes a pretty dull halfcourt bunch with 5-5 Tajuan Porter dribbling around
like a fool and chuckin? it like there was no tomorrow. Problem is, there is no tomorrow
and the kid sometimes gets in a zone, plus he and several teammates can give State
guard Ben Hansbrough windburn. Speaking of zone, the Mississippi State coaches
haven?t taught a guard how to play effectively against one since they arrived there. OREGON,
71-70.
Villanova over Clemson by 1
Sure, Clemson is an upperclassmen-laden team from the ACC that has a bunch of
impressive blowout wins, beat Duke last weekend and nearly beat North Carolina
twice. Wonderful. But they only know how to play one way, which doesn?t figure to
cause Villanova much grief. Go ahead and pressure Scottie Reynolds. Zip-zip, layup for
a teammate. Villanova has guards with good-sized bodies on them and their forwards
size up well with Mays and Booker on the Tigers. Villanova will refuse to be intimidated
on the floor, and Jay Wright isn?t overmatched in the coaching match-up. Clemson
is a spotty 3-point shooting team, poor from the free-throw line. Villanova is also spotty
from 3, but good from the free-throw line. VILLANOVA, 74-73.
Vanderbilt over Siena by 9
It would be easier to like underdog Siena if they hadn?t earned the MAAC auto-bid by
beating a string of depth-shy opponents on their own home floor. In the title game,
Rider was missing two injured starters. Head coach Fran McCaffrey has been to the Big
Dance with Lehigh and NC-Greensboro and got waxed each time, but this team sports
the nation?s fourth-best offensive turnover ratio (only 15.4% of possessions) against a
Vandy defense not known for taking it away. Siena can try to out-quick the
Commodores playing three guards while Vandy center Oglivy is on the floor in his first
NCAA Tournament, and 6-6 Edwin Ubiles might be quick and shifty enough to score
on him. Siena?s home win vs. Stanford will receive much pre-game play: They shot 32
free throws to Stanford?s 3. How does that happen? VANDERBILT, 85-76.
North Carolina over Mt. St. Mary?s by 24
Name That Score! Mount St. Mary?s gets 14.5 points and 5.3 assists per game from toosmall
soph point guard Jeremy Goode -- 5-9, 170. In his own conference, Goode has
been able to get to the free-throw line a lot, but he can?t shoot 3s. That chore goes to 6-
0 senior Chris Vann and 6-4 soph Will Holland (only 8.8 points per game). Coppin
State gets only .89 points per possession. For the season, Coppin shoots only 39.8%
overall, just 31% from 3-point range. They feasted on turnovers within a conference
rated as the second-weakest in the nation. NORTH CAROLINA, 85-61 / 88-55.
Arkansas over Indiana by 1
Arkansas? pressure could get to Indiana, which didn?t face much of it against the abundance
of sluggish Big Ten foes. Hoosiers ball-handlers Bassett and Gordon will have
stuff thrown at them that has disrupted the normal offensive flow of many opponents,
giving those opponents less time to operate within the allotted 35 seconds. As a freshman
possibly going pro soon, Gordon might be inclined to shot-hog the Hoosiers out
of the game in his ?one shining moment.? Arkansas is a senior-laden team whose guards
have long been on-again, off-again on three-pointers but are supported by three senior
big men to do plenty of dirty work inside against overrated Hoosier forward D.J.
White. ARKANSAS, 79-78.
St. Joseph?s over Oklahoma by 5
The Oklahoma offense consists of big men Blake Griffin and Longar Longar chasing
down missed three-pointers for offensive rebounds, a fresh 35 seconds, entry passes, a
miss, and a put-back. St. Joe?s is a good candidate to put a stop to this nonsense. The
Hawks can usually score well out of their offense, and Sooners? head coach Jeff Capel
last five seasons have been spent in the CAA and Big 12. Getting ready for this particular
A-10 team on short notice is a tough task, a lot tougher than St. Joe?s has it because
St. Joe?s just needs to do its usual decent job of boxing out and running their sets to prevail
in this game. Oklahoma?s offense is a 40-ish outing waiting to happen. ST.
JOSEPH?S, 54-49.
Louisville over Boise State by 10
Louisville has a wave of physical guards who, in most match-ups, can wear out the other
side over the course of a game with pressure defense and constant hounding. The range
and passing skills of 6-11 Scott Padgett enables him to be the midrange connecting
force for the offense. But Boise is a double-digit dog with some lengthy players that can
score, never something to sneeze at. Louisville has been crying to run, escaping the
physical Big East foes gives them the opportunity, but that could open a door for a
stranger that refused to lose on New Mexico State?s home floor in order to get here.
LOUISVILLE, 84-74.
Butler over South Alabama by 2
Ultimately, USA of the Sun Belt figures to fall via lack of depth to play good enough
defense for 40 minutes against Butler?s clock-milking motion offense. But since they
can score (75.5 points per game) have a nice, positive assist-to-turnover ratio and the
top eight minute-getters are upperclassmen, they?ll compete. Butler?s offensive efficiency
is not as sharp as it was last season and the first-year head coach (ex-assistant) is
favored in his first NCAA game as boss-man, against multi-tourney vet Ronnie Arrow.
BUTLER, 66-64.
Tennessee over American by 22
American?s two leading scorers are 5-11, 165 and 5-9, 175 guards Carr (from 3) and
Mercer (on the dribble-drive). As a group, they are neither big nor deep. The bench
doesn?t score much. At the pace they play (slow, 60.9 possessions per game), they have
shot effectively. Can they get their preferred tempo here? Tennessee plays at a top 20
pace ? 72.4 possessions per game, and Tennessee is one of the most stubborn teams
going, Eneregizer Bunnying it for better or worse. Against this caliber, probably for better.
TENNESSEE, 82-60.
NBA
***BEST BET
*Orlando over Philadelphia by 16
Since Jan. 30, the Magic have scored at least 100 points in 19 of their last 22 games
through March 16. The 76ers are 3-21 when surrendering 100 or more points through
March 18. The 76ers had problems recently against Kevin Garnett and could face the
same difficulties trying to control Dwight Howard inside. Orlando has defeated
Philadelphia in six of the past eight meetings. The 76ers could still be without Willie
Green (check status). ORLANDO 114-98.
Seattle over *Los Angeles Lakers by 1
Just when you think the Lakers are the best team in basketball they turn around and
lose to a bad team like they earlier this month at home to the Kings as 13 _-point
favorites. The Sonics had covered nine of their past 12 road games through March 15.
The Lakers are in a precarious situational spot and could overlook Seattle. Los Angeles
just concluded a tough four-game road trip on Thursday at Utah and has a home-andaway
series on Sunday and Monday versus Golden State up next. SEATTLE 111-110.
Dunkel Friday
Game 821-822: Villanova vs. Clemson
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 67.969; Clemson 69.703
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 6
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (+6)
Game 823-824: Siena vs. Vanderbilt
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 60.179; Vanderbilt 67.841
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-6 1/2)
Game 825-826: Western Kentucky vs. Drake
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 62.191; Drake 67.496
Dunkel Line: Drake by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Drake by 4
Dunkel Pick: Drake (-4)
Game 827-828: San Diego vs. Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 60.611; Connecticut 69.831
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 9
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 12
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+12)
Game 829-830: Mt. St. Mary's vs. North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Mt. St. Mary's 52.313; North Carolina 77.299
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 25
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 831-832: Arkansas vs. Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas 67.084; Indiana 65.500
Dunkel Line: Arkansas by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Indiana by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+2 1/2)
Game 833-834: MD-Baltimore Co. vs. Georgetown
Dunkel Ratings: MD-Baltimore Co. 54.196; Georgetown 73.771
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-16 1/2)
Game 835-836: Davidson vs. Gonzaga
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 68.713; Gonzaga 69.468
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 1
Vegas Line: Davidson by 2
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (+2)
Game 837-838: TX-Arlington vs. Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: TX-Arlington 49.040; Memphis 77.692
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 28 1/2
Vegas Line: Memphis by 25
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-25)
Game 839-840: Oregon vs. Mississippi State
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 68.481; Mississippi State 66.608
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 2
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+2)
Game 841-842: Austin Peay vs. Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Austin Peay 54.452; Texas 73.773
Dunkel Line: Texas by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 16
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-16)
Game 843-844: St. Mary's (CA) vs. Miami (FL)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 63.976; Miami (FL) 66.315
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 1
Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-1)
Game 845-846: American vs. Tennessee
Dunkel Ratings: American 51.974; Tennessee 74.519
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 22 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-19 1/2)
Game 847-848: South Alabama vs. Butler
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 61.363; Butler 65.701
Dunkel Line: Butler by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Butler by 4
Dunkel Pick: Butler (-4)
Game 849-850: Boise State vs. Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 56.443; Louisville 73.378
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 17
Vegas Line: Louisville by 13
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-13)
Game 851-852: St. Joseph's vs. Oklahoma
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 63.925; Oklahoma 69.000
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 5
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 1
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-1)
Tony Mathews
NCAA - 20 Stars: Indiana -1.5
NCAA - Bonus Play
Boise State +13.5
NCAA - Bonus Play
Creighton +8.5
NCAA - Bonus Play
Creighton/Florida Under 144
Rocco Spacamuro
50* San Diego +11
Brandon Lang
15 Dime
Florida
Davidson
Georgetown
Golden St
10 Dime
St. Joseph's
Drake
Bob Balfe's Friday Tournament Upset Pick
Upset 12 over 5
Western Kentucky +4 over Drake
All I keep hearing about is how good Drake is and how good they can shoot the ball. Cornell was supposed to be a good shooting team and they got crushed yesterday same with CS Fullerton. Western Kentucky plays at a high pace and this should be a good one to watch. This is another game in which the public is heavy on Drake. Why is did the line drop 1/2 a point? I called KState yesterday. Today I am calling Western Kentucky.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Knicks -4
At 4-29 on the season, Memphis is horrible on the road. The Grizzlies are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Eastern Conference, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest, and 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall. At 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a dog, Memphis has been a terrible team to back even while catching points. The Knicks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 Friday games (it seems to be about the only night they show up) and 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 3 or more days rest. A well rested Knicks team, playing in the Garden should be able to get the job done here. Lay the points.
John Ryan
Game: San Diego at Connecticut
Prediction: under
Reason: Ai Simulator 3* graded play UNDER San Diego/UCONN. AiS shows a 71% probability that 130 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 29-4 UNDER for a massive 88% ATS UNDER since 1997. This system has already gone 3-0 UNDER this season. Play under with all teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points with teams off a win over a conference rival as a dog of 6 points or more and is now facing an opponent off an upset loss as a favorite. UCONN limping into this game losing 2 of 3 both SU and ATS. Note that UCONN is 8-1 UNDER in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. SD comes into this game HOT having won 5 straight and 4 straight ATS. They are off a big win against Gonzaga and were 7.5 point dogs. This can only add to their confidence in facing what I consider a vastly over rated UCONN team. Both teams are led by 1 significant scorer and playmaker. SD has Johnson at 16.9 PPG and UCONN features AJ price at 14.9 PPG. Both are guards/playmakers and both defenses have the ability to focus on these single players and make it as difficult as possible to execute the first part of offensive plays. UCONN has better balance in team scoring, but without AJ having a strong game, this will be a low scoring affair and possibly a very close game too. Take the UNDER.
Tom Freese
Game: Boise St. at Louisville
Prediction: Louisville
Reason: Boise St is in a 58-29 ATS Play Against System that says to go against any team that scored 80 or more points in a conference win if their opponent is off an upset loss as a favorite in their last game. Louisville is 24-8 ATS off two straight conference games and they are 9-2 ATS away after covering two of their last three games. PLAY ON LOUISVILLE
Robert Ross
Game: San Diego at Connecticut
Prediction: Connecticut
Reason: Big East off to a hot tournament start. San Diego fortunate to win its Conference tournament and get into the Big Dance but now steps up in class and figures to have a letdown after that Cinderella run. Take UConn!