VEGAS EXPERTS
Sixers downed Denver 115-113 but did not cover as a 3.5-pt. chalk. They are 41-24 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons and 4-1 ATS their last five visits to Orlando. Magic also played Wednesday night, losing at home to Washington 87-86. It is 4-25 ATS off a close home loss by 3 points or less since 1996.
Play on: Philadelphia
Lenny Del Genio
Game: St. Marys at Miami (FL)
Prediction: St. Marys
Reason: In our opinion, Miami is the most "overseeded" team in the entire draw. We don't like G Jack McClinton, a Siena transfer, whose 42% shooting from the floor does not justify his 385 attempts this year. He will just jack up shots at random and sink his team at will. We actually prefer Gaels' G Patrick Mills, who has attempted just 10 less shots than McClinton with a slightly worse percentage, but is one of the best players to come out of Austrailia. St. Mary's was victimized in the WCC Tourney by losing to the host on its own floor. Miami does own a one-point win over Duke, but doesn't that victory look less and less impressive everytime the Blue Devils play another game. They lost to a Winthrop team that just got beat by 31 (in our Conference BLOWOUT of the year!). St. Mary's is a much better team defensively than the Hurricanes, will frustrate them and beat them. Take St. Mary's.
Lenny Stevens
20* Villinova
10* Davidson
10* Oregon
MadduxSports
Clemson -5.5
Mighty Quinn
Davidson
Computer Sports
BUTLER-4'
Huddle Up Sports
WKY/Drake Over
Dave Cokin
Miss St
Cappers Access
Tennessee
Mt St Marys
Creighton
Totals4u
Clemson Under
Psychic Sports
Golden St
Mike Wynn
Georgetown Over
Glen Mcgrew
Louisville
SportsCapping
UConn -11.5
Steve Janus
Drake -4
Redzone
Louisville
Tv Hotline
Georgetown
Scott Spreitzer
Nuggets
#1 Sports
Arkansas
Bob Donahue
Memphis Univ
ARTHUR RALPH COMP
LOUISVILLE
GAMBLERS DATA
LA CLIPPERS +11
Vegas Steamline
Grizzlies
Glen Mcgrew
Cavs
Michael Cannon
Friday's Plays...
20 Dime –
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Take Mississippi State as the small chalk over Oregon tonight in the South Regional.
Oregon is a team that relies too much on its 3-point shooting and this figures to be a bad matchup for them, as Mississippi State possesses the athleticism and length on the perimeter to contest the Ducks outside game.
The Bulldogs ranked 2nd in the nation in field goal defense this season, allowing just under 37 percent from the floor.
Mississippi State is also the more physical of the two teams, which should give them a big advantage in the paint.
Oregon is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as an underdog of less than five points. Mississippi State is a solid 6-2 ATS in its last eight when favored by less than seven points.
Take Mississippi State minus the small number as they grab the win and cover.
10 Dime –
LOUISVILLE
Lay the big number with Louisville tonight when they take on Boise State in the East Regional.
Boise State has all the ATS trends in their favor, but the games are played on the court, not on paper.
Louisville is one of the stingiest defensive teams in the nation and I expect Rick Pitino’s squad to come out with a chip on their shoulders after being knocked out of the Big East tournament by Pitt.
The Cardinals were surging down the stretch, going 9-1 SUATS in their last 10 regular season games.
There’s no reason to think they won’t put on a show tonight against a Boise State team that lacks the size and athleticism of the Cardinals.
The Broncos weren’t the best team regarding transitional defense in the country, and I expect Louisville to exploit that tonight.
Lay the big number as Louisville grabs the win and cover.
5 Dime –
ST. JOE’S
Take St. Joe’s over Oklahoma in the East Regional tonight.
St. Joe’s has the offensive edge in this matchup, particularly at the point guard position with Tasheed Carr. The Hawks also have a nice combination of size and shooting range with Pat Calathes and Rob Ferguson.
Oklahoma plays good team defense, but they are limited offensively and I expect the Hawks’ versatile offense to get the open looks necessary to get by.
The Sooners are in ATS slumps of 1-4 in the tournament, 7-19 at neutral sites and 3-7 as a chalk.
St. Joe’s is on pointspread runs of 7-0 in non-conference play, 14-3 after a SU loss, 4-1 at neutral sites and 7-2 as an underdog this year.
Take St. Joe’s as they grab the win over Oklahoma
ATS basketball lock club
5 units st josephs
5 units sienna
4 units arkansas
4 units miami
3 units butler
ats hockey lock club
4 units vancouver
4 units rangers
Drew Gordon Writeups
1. 300,000 Mississippi State
2. 50,000 Arkansas
3. 50,000 Boise State
4. 50,000 Magic
1. Mississippi State- When you live by the 3-pointer, you die by the 3-pointer, especially against one of the best perimeter defenses in the land. Oregon has made its living from beyond the arc, but they'll be hard-pressed to get much of anything done against this Mississippi State defense, which allows opponents to shoot just 36% on the season! But let's dig a little deeper...
First of all, from a match up standpoint, the Bulldogs have the edge at almost every position. PG Tajuan Porter can be electric, but standing at just 5'6 is a serious liability on the defensive end, especially against the bigger Bulldogs guards (all three starteing guards over 6'2). While in the frontcourt, F Charles Rhodes is a beast down-low, and should easily control the paint in this one. Neither Oregon forwards Leunan (softish shooter) or Catron (6'6) can guard him, creating even more match up issues.
On the defensive end, the match ups only get tougher for the Ducks, as 6'9 human pogo-stick Jarvis Varnardo and his 148 blocks patrols the paint, altering or swatting everything that comes his way. And without an opposing post presence to get him into foul trouble, he can play his brand of defense all game long. Not only that, but guards Gordon and Stewart are both big and athletic (Hansbrough is solid, but a bit slow), and with Varnardo protecting the paint, they're free to go all-out on the perimeter.
Finally, let's consider Oregon's resume, as despite being in the PAC-10, the Ducks have not fared well against top-tier opposition, going just 2-8 SU against the 5 conferece teams better than they are (Arizona State, USC, Washington State, Stanford, and UCLA). Herein lies the problem, as Mississippi State plays the same kind of lockdown defense these top PAC-10 teams do, and because Oregon is such a one-dimensional team, all the Bulldogs have to do is defend the perimeter... A.K.A. their bread and butter.
Bottom line, mismatches all over the place in this contest, and I say the Bulldogs take advantage of every single one. Sorry Oregon-backers, but unless we see an explosion from the 3-point line, which is unlikely against this defense, the Ducks are cooked in this match up. Remember, jump shot may stop falling, but a good defense never takes a play off, and that's the difference in this one.
Take Mississippi State over Oregon as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Arkansas- Tough match up for the Hooisers, who've not been the same since the coach Sampson debacle, going 3-3 SU & just 1-5 ATS over that span. Say what you will, but the proof is in the pudding, and the pudding tells me Indiana is in big trouble against this Razorbacks team tonight and here's why:
First, there's the size differential. Indiana's tallest player is 6'9 F D.J. White, while Arkansas has 4 frontline players 6'10 or taller, including Townes, Hunter, Hill, and Washington. Not that size is always the answer, but in this case, the Razorbacks have plenty of big bodies to throw at White, who's the only real post presence for this Hoosiers squad.
Second, if you can take away White to an extent, that leaves the offense in star freshman Eric Gordon's hands. While some may consider that a good thing, if you've seen Gordon play of late, you've seen a young player wearing down as the season progressed. Since the Purdue game (Feb 19th), he's shot only 34% and has committed a whopping 31 turnovers! The fact he'll be guarded by 6'6 Sonny Weems, who not only has the size (6'6), but the athleticism (42 steals), also presents problems for Gordon.
Also, its hard to ignore the difference in the two offenses, as the Hoosiers have taken a step back with coach Dakich, scoring just 67 ppg on 39% shooting over their last 5 games. The Razorbacks meanwhile, appear to be flourishing under coach Pelphrey, averaging 75 ppg on 48% shooting over the same 5-game span! This game has all the makings of a slow methodical Big Ten offense running into trouble keeping pace with one of the hotter teams in the SEC. Don't let one loss to a surging Georgia team scare you away from the Razordback in this one!
Bottom line, Indiana has neither the focus (struggling since Dakich took over), the match ups (overmatched down-low, Weems should force Gordon into plenty of bad shots and turnovers), nor the offense to hang with the Razorbacks in this one. The game will be relatively competitive, but in the end, Arkansas' size and fluid offense are the difference.
Take Arkansas plus the points over Indiana in this March Mayhem First Round match up.
3. Boise State- Anyone who saw this Boise State team battle New Mexico through 3 overtimes, eventually winning outright 107-102 to get in this position, knows the Broncos are no pushover. They can score with the best of them, averaging 81 ppg on an outstanding 50% shooting on the season, and have only gotten better as the season has gone on. True, they're up the biggest and most defensively stout opponent they've seen all season, but being spotted this many points, they're more than capable of keeping this game within the number.
Its a match up of frontlines, as the bigger Cardinals, featuring Padgett, Williams, Clark, Caracter, and Palacois, are both deep and big. However, let's not lose sight of a very talented Broncos frontline, which is led by Reggie Larry, a 6'6 "do-everything" forward similar to Terrence Williams, but a much better shooter (53% from field, 43% from 3-point). PF Matt Nelson, a 6'9 235 lbs. senior, anchors the paint for the Broncos, shooting 65% from the field. While 6'7 Tyler Tiedeman is the sharpshooter, shooting 53% from the field and 49% from beyond the arc. So why all the stats? To prove to you that this Boise State offense can score on the Cardinals D, plain and simple.
Another obvious reason to jump all over Boise State in this game is the public perception of Louisville. Everyone is riding them in this contest, thinking this is just another 3 seed clobbering a 14 seed, but that's simply not the case. Again, if you've seen Boise State play, especially of late, as they've surged into the Dance, there's no question they can keep this game respectable. Vegas is counting on the fact you've only seen Louisville play, but underestimate the Broncos at your own loss!
Bottom line, despite the difference in seeding, this is not as bad of a match up for Boise State as Vegas wants you to believe. Both teams are led by their froncourts, with Louisville relying on defense, while Boise State's relies on offense. In the end, the Cardinals win this game, but Boise State makes them work for it, grabbing the cash in the process.
Take Boise State plus the points over Louisville in this March Mayhem First Round match up.
4. Magic- For as good as the 76ers are playing, they're in trouble tonight, as the Magic have several strong motivational factors in their favor, but none bigger than their most recent home loss to Washington.
Orlando got ridiculed in their local papers for their loss the Wizards, as they not only wasted Hedo Turkoglu's career-best 39 points effort, but also got only 3 points from their star C Dwight Howard... I don't care who you are, but when a player of Howard's caliber gets only 6 shots (going 1 for 6 from field) you're going to lose every time. Look for coach Van Gundy to empahsize getting the ball to Howard in this contest.
Another reason to expect a monster effort from Howard and the Magic alike is their last meeting with the 76ers. Philly won 101-89 at the Wachovia Center, with the 76ers backcourt dominating Orlando's, and Samuel Dalembert basically out-playing Howard. The change in venue should somewhat equalize the difference in the backcourt, but its Howard who will come out primed for a monster effort in this one... There's no way Dalembert limits him again.
Finally, besides the Washington loss, this Magic team has been killing teams in Orlando of late, going 8-2-1 ATS over their last 11 at home. Their top-tier offense and solid defense make a formidable combo, one that will get the best of the 76ers in this one. Mark my words: Pride drives the Magic to one of their better efforts at home this season.
Bottom line, after a tough home loss to Washington, coupled with a tough road loss in their last meeting with the 76ers, look for Orlando to explode out of the gate tonight, as things get personal in this match up. Orlando's backcourt was thoroughly outplayed in their last meeting, and Howard wasn't much better... This time around, expect a much different result. Magic roll!
Take the Magic comfortably over the 76ers in this NBA match up.
Rob Veno
Clemson -6
Gonzaga +1.5
20* Blue Chip: Mississippi State Over 142.5
Miami-FL Under 137.5
Butler Over 125.5
Blue Chip: Florida Over 144
The Fat Jack
SIENA +6 1/2
SOUTH ALABAMA +4 1/2
OKLAHOMA -1
WESTERN KENTUCKY +4
MISISSIPPI STATE -2 1/2
Winners Edge
NBA
Ny Knicks - 4 , 2 Units
La Clippers + 11.5 , 2 Units
CBB
S. Alabama + 5 , 2 Units
Memphis - 24 , 2 Units
Indiana - 2 , 1 Unit
Robert Ferringo's Picks For College Basketball
5-Unit Play. Take #824 Vanderbilt (-6.5) over Siena
Wait, aren’t I supposed to be on Siena, everyone’s upset pick? Sorry. I’m taking the better team. Last year the Metro winner was relegated to the play-in game. Now they are supposed to topple one of the SEC’s best? Doubtful. Vanderbilt executes masterfully on offense, and if they can dedicate themselves on the defensive end this game won’t be close. This one has the feel of the Notre Dame-George Mason game to me, and we saw how that ended up. Hopefully Vandy will keep Andrew Ogilvy involved early and often and win by double-digits. The fact that everyone seems to be on Siena just makes me like this one even more.
Now onto the system: if a No. 4 seed is a favorite of 9.0 or less they are 27-12 ATS, with all four No. 4 seeds covering yesterday. Also, if a No. 4 seed has a winning percentage of .733 or more they are 28-15 ATS. And finally, if the No. 4 seed is off a loss they are 32-10-1 ATS, and if they are favored by 9.0 or less and off a loss they are 20-2 ATS.
4-Unit Play. Take #822 Clemson (-6) over Villanova
I love this Clemson team and I think they are a dark horse in this bracket to make a Final Four run. Villanova has just been way, way too inconsistent this year to trust in a big spot, and Clemson has made a habit of blowing out opponents that can’t handle their pressure. This is a young Nova team, compared to the veteran Tigers. I think that makes a huge difference in this one. Nova has gotten dumped by 19 to Georgetown, by 14 to Louisville, by 22 to St. Joe’s, and by 12 at Pittsburgh. All of those games had three things in common: the Wildcats were on the road, facing veteran guards, and facing teams with superior interior size.
4-Unit Play. Take #836 Gonzaga (+2) over Davidson
Once again, aren’t I supposed to have Davidson here? The Wildcats are a solid team. And they are playing at home against a team that’s flying cross-country and playing at noon. But EVERYONE is on Davidson to win this game and move on. Generally, when everyone expects an upset it usually goes the other way. The Zags have won at St. Joe’s and at Connecticut this year, so excuse them if they aren’t intimidated. In fact, they should come out with an edge because they are an underdog. They come from a better conference and have a more impressive resume, and I think they win outright.
Further, No. 7 seeds are 12-5-1 ATS as an underdog in the first round. Dogs of 2.0 or less in this spot are an incredible 16-5-1 ATS. Also, teams with a winning percentage of .760 or more that were the top seed in their conference tournament but were upset are 23-6 ATS. This system was at play in our Xavier winner yesterday. If our team is listed between -5.0 and +5.0 then they are an astounding 16-0 ATS.
4-Unit Play. Take #826 Drake (-4) over Western Kentucky
The Bulldogs have been covering lines like these all year. I’m a believer. They come from a better conference and have played, and beaten, better teams than Western Kentucky all year. WKU has zero nonconference wins to speak of. Which is a shame, because I like Courtney Lee and this team. But Drake has earned this high seed and will do its thing today like it has so many times this year.
3-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 137 St. Mary’s vs. Miami
2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take St. Mary’s (+6) over Miami (AND Take #842 Texas (-10.5) over Austin Peay
I think the St. Mary's game is going to be played in the 50’s and 60’s, as some nerves and the early start conspire against these two clubs. Both teams have some muscle underneath, making points difficult to come by. I like the Gaels in this one mainly because of their balance on offense. I think they can get points inside and out, and I think they have better perimeter shooters than Miami. The Canes have had a nice year, but since they beat Duke in February they have done absolutely nothing to impress me. Miami is 3-7 SU in its last 10 road games with two of the wins coming by a combined four points.
This one is just kind of along the lines of the Tennessee play. Texas is just too athletic. Austin Peay is a good little team. Lots of experience and lots of wins over the last two years. But over the last two years they have lost by 25 and 22 to Memphis, by 16 at Dayton, by 14 to Vanderbilt, 45 to Illinois, by 17 to Akron, and by 24 to Air Force. They didn’t cover in any of those games against teams from major conferences, and teams that were more athletic than they were. Texas is exactly that. I don’t see the Longhorns messing around after seeing what happened to Duke yesterday. Their athleticism will be too much and this will be around a 24-point game. The OVC, AP’s home conference, is one of the worst in the nation, and that will come out today.
3-Unit Play. Take #849 Boise State (+13.5) over Louisville
You want an upset, here’s my upset for your. This game comes down to one thing and one thing only: can Broncos point guard Anthony Thomas handle the Louisville pressure. That’s it. If he has more than five turnovers we may be sunk. If not, there is no doubt in my mind that Boise State can play with the Cards. They have two stellar forwards and they have some shooters around the perimeter. Basically, their strength matches up with Louisville’s. I have been saying for weeks that Louisville can’t shoot. And if they don’t knock down outside shots they are beatable. Now, if they do make their 3’s this one will get ugly. But I think Boise can hang around here and stay within 10 points.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #831 Arkansas (+2) over Indiana
Size and strength. That’s what we’re backing here. Arkansas has too much muscle underneath and should be able to pound away at the Hoosiers where they are vulnerable. If they can contain D.J. White, or get him in foul trouble, then IU can be exposed. The Hoosiers are 8-for-48 from 3-point range in their last two games and they have been pathetic on the road this entire season. In their last four road games the Hoosiers lost to Minnesota, lost at terrible Penn State, were beat by 30 at Michigan State, and barely beat pathetic Northwestern by three. Connecticut beat IU at home with its size, as did Wisconsin. The Hoosiers also got dumped by 15 on a neutral court against Xavier. It’s a pattern: they simply are not an elite team. The Hoosiers can get away with shakiness and turnovers on the road in the Big 10 but the Razorbacks will turn mistakes into points.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #846 Tennessee (-19.5) over American
I’m looking for the Vols to hang 90 on American. And they will do it. This is a bit too early in the day for American to really be sharp, and as we saw in the early games on Thursday, talent wakes up a little sooner. Tennessee routinely beats SEC teams by 20 points, so I’ll be a little surprised if the And-1 Mix Team (aka the Volunteers) doesn’t come out and overwhelm our countrymen.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #848 Butler (-4.5) over South Alabama
Before the tourney started this was a game I was waffling on. But after watching the chalk take care of business yesterday I’m even more confident that the experienced Bulldogs can take care of business. They have played and beaten the best teams in the nation over the past two years and have performed exceptionally well on the road. Butler is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 nonconference games and is 5-1 ATS in its last six NCAA Tournament games. I’m ignoring most of the trends and systems I hold dear because I just think that Butler’s execution and experience will lead to the cover over a team from a conference that hasn’t won a tournament game in over a decade.
That's it for today. Again, I am betting on every 'under' on today's games. Not sure how you made out yesterday because most of the results were excruciatingly close to the number. Depends on what you got, but it was probably right around even, +/- some juice. I'm following the same track today.
LT's Lock
Todays play: Oklahoma -1
MR A'S
Cleveland Cavaliers - 5
Denver Nuggets - 4
Los Angeles Lakers - 16
Fairway Jay
Davidson -1.5
Big Drive: South Alabama +4.5
20* Big Drive: St. Josephs +1 )
Breakfast Club (Gavazzi's Site)
Arkansas
St. Joes
Boise St.