PSYCHIC
NCAAB
2 units St Mary's CA +1
2 units MD Baltimore CO +17
3 units St Joseph's +1
3 units Clemson -6
5 units Mississippi State -2.5
WISEGUY
NBA
2 units Golden State 3
2 unit Toronto +5
DA STICK
5 units Ny/NJ over 5
5 units Min/Van over 5
Cajun-Sports NBA Selection for Friday
Game:Philadelphia 76ers vs. Orlando Magic
Line: Orlando Magic -6
Rating: THREE-Star
Selection: ORLANDO MAGIC -6
Analysis: The Magic are one of just three teams that have clinched a playoff spot for this year’s postseason (Boston and Detroit). The Magic had won four straight versus Philly including two this season until suffering a 101 to 89 defeat in Philadelphia back on February 27th. The Magic had a five-game winning streak snapped on Wednesday when they lost to Washington 87 to 86. The Magic topped its season-low point total by just one point and matched its worst shooting percentage of the season with 33.8 from the field. That game also saw Magic center Dwight Howard end a streak of 14 straight double-doubles with only three points and 14 rebounds due to foul trouble. He leads the league with 60 double-doubles on the year. We expect an all out effort from this Magic squad after playing so poorly their last time out and the fact that the 76ers defeated them soundly in their last meeting. Technical support is found in that Orlando is 40-23 ATS when playing at home with a line range of 6 to 8 points. If they are installed as a home favorite in that same price range the record is 31-16 ATS. When the Magic are facing the 76ers with a line range of 6 to 8 points Orlando is 11-2 ATS, if the Magic are coming in off a home game the record for Orlando is a perfect 6-0 ATS versus Philly. Another series tech set shows Orlando is 20-9-2 ATS when facing Philly if they are off a SU loss in their last game. If Philly is coming off a game where they went over the total and now face the Magic in the same line range they are 1-8 ATS. If they lost that game ATS the record is 2-9-1 ATS. We know that NBA teams coming off a SU win but ATS loss and have gone over in their last game and now must face a conference opponent on the road have posted a record of 42-71-6 ATS, if they are installed as an underdog the record is 23-41-6 ATS, if they are an away underdog their record stands at 23-41-6 ATS. All signs point towards Disney and a win and cover for the host. Lay the chalk as the Magic avenge their loss to Philly as the Magic are 16-4 ATS revenging a loss where the opponent scored 100+ points this season.
Scott Rickenbach
1* (regular play) St Mary’s Cal Gaels vs Miami-Florida
Freshman Patrick Mills has been extremely impressive for the Gaels as the Australian is now the leading scorer for St Mary’s Cal. His expanded role has allowed junior forward Diamon Simpson to enjoy even more success. The Gaels also have some bench help as they have a legitimate sixth man in the form of Tron Smith who can come in an energize scoring runs for the team. Keep in mind this Gaels team did knock off both Drake and Oregon earlier this season and, in fact, the only loss to a non-tournament team came at Southern Illinois and there’s no real shame in losing to the Salukis at Carbondale.
The Hurricanes come into this tournament off of a double digit loss to Virginia Tech in the ACC tournament. The Canes did not look good as they got worn down by the Hokies pace and their strength as Virginia Tech was not afraid to get physical with the Canes. We feel that St Mary’s Cal can mimic those same designs that worked so well for the Hokies and Simpson and 6’11 Omar Samhan are going to be too much for the Canes to handle in this one.
Mills is not only the leading scorer for the Gaels but he also led the team in assists and did a solid of getting to the line and knocking down his foul shots when his shots from the floor weren’t falling. Todd Golden is another key backcourt member that helps to give the Gaels solid balance with their talented frontcourt as he leads the guards with an assist to turnover ratio of 4 to 1. His fantastic play will continue here and the Gaels will take advantage of the Canes sputtering offense because Miami relies heavily on leading scorer Jack McClinton and he struggled in the ACC Tourney. Play St Mary’s Cal as a regular selection.
THE GOLD SHEET'S LATE TELEPHONE SERVICE
WESTERN KENTUCKY over Drake
BUTLER over South Alabama
SAN DIEGO over Connecticut
2-Minute Warning
Western Kentucky
Purelock
Miami Florida
NBA
Memphis +points
Washington -points
BEN BURNS
NBA
SACRAMENTO
Game: Sacramento Kings vs. San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: Sacramento Kings Reason: I'm taking the points with SACRAMENTO. The situation favors the Kings here. While the Spurs played last night at Chicago, the Kings have had the past two nights off. That's worth noting as the Kings are 10-3 ATS (9-4 SU) this season when playing with two day's rest in between games while the Spurs are a money-burning 4-11 ATS when playing the second of back to back games, 18-31 ATS their last 49 in that situation. Despite covering yesterday, the defending champs are still an ugly 2-10-1 ATS their last 13 games overall. The Kings, on the other hand, are 4-1 SU/ATS their last five games. Those four wins came against relatively quality teams too, as they defeated Portland, Toronto and Golden State, in addition to defeating the Lakers at LA. After the win over the Warriors, Kings coach Reggie Theus was quoted as saying: "The bottom line is we came out, played harder than them in the first and second halves." That hard work led to excellent shooting (or was it the other way around?) as the Kings shot a season-high 58%. Look for the Kings to build off that effort as they keep this game closer than expected with the Spurs looking ahead to Dallas and again struggling in a back to back spot. *Feast
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
VANDERBILT
Game: Siena vs. Vanderbilt
Prediction: Vanderbilt Reason: I'm laying the points with VANDERBILT. Anything can happen during the Big Dance. However, for every Belmont (lost by 1 to Duke as a 20 point underdog) there are also plenty of cases where the "better" team from the stronger conference not only wins, but wins big. Favorites priced in this range had a very good day yesterday. In fact, teams which were favored in the -5 to -15 range went a perfect 10-0 (includes two games from the NIT) against the the number yesterday. The Commodores fall in the low end of that range, which I feel gives us excellent value. At 26-17, Vanderbilt comes in with the significantly better record. That's saying something when considering that the Commodores were playing the likes of Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Florida and Miss. State, while the Saints were playing teams like Canisius, Rider, Marist and Niagara. After losing at Syracuse, the Saints pulled an unlikely upset of Stanford. However, that was way back in November before the Cardinal was playing the way they are now. Note that the Saints followed up that upset with a loss vs. Cornell in their next game. December saw them face a pair of tournament teams in St. Joseph's and Memphis. They lost by "only" six while hosting the Hawks but then got massacred 102-58 when facing Memphis. The Commodores didn't have to face Memphis. However, they did face Tennessee right after the Vols had just beaten Memphis to become the #1 team in the country. Not only were the Commodores competitive, they won outright. Non-conference play saw the Commodores go a perfect 15-0 SU with wins over the likes of South Alabama, Utah State, Bradley, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest. A lot of people are saying Siena has a solid shot at scoring an upset. The Commodores have heard that talk and they come in with a chip on their shoulder as a result. Shan Foster, the unanimous choice for SEC player of the year had this to say: "We've won 26 games. We're not a 4 seed by a miracle, you know. We're confident that we're going to go in and execute our game plan and give it all we've got and come out with a victory..." Note that a lot of people were saying Vandy would get upset in the first round last year too. The Commodores responded to that talk by destroying George Washington by 33 points. Including that result, they're 5-1 ATS their last six NCAA tournament games. I expect them to improve on those numbers with another convincing victory here. *Personal Favorite
UCONN
Game: San Diego vs. Connecticut
Prediction: Connecticut Reason: I'm laying the points with CONNECTICUT. I believe this will be a mismatch. The Huskies really came together over the final months. They've got a strong and deep backcourt while center Hasheem Thabeet earned Defensive Player of the Year honors in the Big East by being a shot-blocking machine in the paint. Despite the fact that they played in the very strong Big East conference, the Huskies outscored opponents by a 77.7 to 68.6 margin on the season. Conversely, despite playing in an extremely weak WCC Conference (Gonzaga and St. Mary's are good but every other team is terrible) the Toreros only outscored opponents by a 65.6 to 63.4 margin. Obviously, defense has been their "strength." However, the Huskies were 5-1 SU/ATS the last six times that they faced a team which allows 64 points or less per game. Like Georgia yesterday, the Toreros wouldn't be here if not for an improbable win in their conference tournament. Georgia managed to get off to a good start yesterday. However, Xavier's superior talent eventually became too much too overcome. Look for the Huskies' overall talent edge to prove to be too much here as well, as they improve to 7-2 ATS on the season when playing a game with an over/under line in the 130s.
SOUTH ALABAMA
Game: South Alabama vs. Butler
Prediction: South Alabama Reason: I'm taking the points with SOUTH ALABAMA. The betting public loves Butler. They don't know much about this very good South Alabama team though and that's given us excellent value with the Jaguars. The Jags were beaten by Middle Tennessee State in the conference tournament. However, they'd previously won six straight and 22 of 24. They beat a very solid Western Kentucky team twice in conference play. Outside of conference play, they beat a strong Mississippi State outright (also beat San Diego by double-digits) while losing by just three at both Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. Considering how tough Vanderbilt was at home all season, that was no small feat. Although his team managed to upset the Jags, Middle Tennessee coach Kermit Davis had the following to say: "It's like I said and I'll reiterate the fact, No. 1 is how good a team South Alabama has, not just in the Sun Belt but nationally. There's no question that's an at-large team. They're going to be in the NCAA Tournament and I would not be surprised if they win a game in the tournament. They're that good." While Butler was just 7-9-1 ATS off a conference win this season (60-70 ATS L130 in that role), South Alabama was 2-0 SU/ATS off a confernece loss, winning each game by double-digits. Looking back further and we find the Jaguars at a profitable 41-25 ATS their last 66 lined games when coming off a conference loss. The combination of guards Demetric Bennett, Daon Merritt and Domonic Tilford give the Jags a chance to score inside or out. The Jags are also capable of winning inside with the trio of Brandon Davis, Andre Coleman and Ronald Douglas. While I'll be taking all the points I can get, I won't be at all surprised to see an "upset" here, with the Jags improving to 7-1 ATS their last eight lined non-conference games.
GONZAGA
Game: Davidson vs. Gonzaga
Prediction: Gonzaga Reason: I'm playing on GONZAGA. Talk about no respect. After eight straight wins, Gonzaga loses one game (vs. San Diego) and now finds itself listed as an underdog vs. Davidson. Granted, the Wildcats are no slouches. In fact, they've got the longest winning streak in Division 1-A at the moment and they're also playing very close to home. Playing close to home is certainly significant and the winning streak is also pretty impressive. However, a closer look at the winning streak and their overall schedule shows that the toughest team they have beaten all year is Winthrop (outscored 42-11 in the second half yesterday!) and that they had a losing record in non-conference play. While they did play some heavyweights tough, back in December, they didn't beat any of them. Gonzaga, on the other hand, has proven it can beat quality opponents, anywhere and any time. The Bulldogs beat the likes of Western Kentucky, Virginia Tech, St. Joseph's, Georgia, Utah and even Connecticut. While the Wildcats have only two players averaging greater than 7.8 points per game (star shooting guard Stephen Curry and point guard Jason Richards) the Bulldogs boast six players who average a minimum of 8.2 points per game, including four in double figures. Yes, Curry is a genuine star. However, the Bulldogs have a conference player of the year of their own in point guard Jeremy Pargo. Pargo is a "big game player" and I expect him to bring his "A-Game" with a chance to go up against the heavily hyped Curry. I also expect Austin Daye to be able to take advantage of the Wildcats' forwards and have a big game. The Bulldogs are 37-13 SU their last 50 games played in March, going 8-2 SU in first round tournament games during that stretch. Look for their superior depth combined with their big game and tournament experience to be the difference.
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Game: Western Kentucky vs. Drake
Prediction: Western Kentucky Reason: I'm taking the points with WESTERN KENTUCKY. Drake has been a "media darling" while Western Kentucky has been playing under the radar. That has given us excellent value on a very solid Hilltopper team. Western Kentucky has won six straight games and all six wins came by double-digits. Looking back further and we find the Hilltoppers at a highly impressive 17-1 their last 18 games with the lone loss coming by just five points. Its true that the competition wasn't the best. However, when facing elite non-conference teams earlier in the season, the Hilltoppers lost by only six vs. Tennessee and by just three vs. Gonzaga. Facing slightly weaker non-conference foes saw the Hilltoppers beat the likes of Nebraska and Michigan. Western Kentucky isn't particularly tall or deep inside. However, neither is Drake, which makes this a good matchup for the Hilltoppers. Like Drake, the Hilltoppers (27-6) start three guards Courtney Lee, Tyrone Brazelton and Ty Rogers. All three are seniors and I expect their experience to pay big dividends against a Drake team which has overachieved all season and which hasn't been to the postseason in many years. Drake's press gives up open looks and the Hilltoppers, who shoot 38.9% from beyond the arc, have the ingredients to make them pay. While I'll be taking all the points I can get, I won't be at all surprised to see an "upset" here, with the Hilltoppers improving to 7-0 ATS in neutral court games on the season. *Best Bet
UNDER Louisville/Boise
Game: Boise St. vs. Louisville
Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Louisville and Boise State to finish UNDER the total. This over/under number has climbed significantly since it came out. I feel that this is the wrong move and that we're now being provided with excellent value on the UNDER. The Broncos were certainly involved in some high-scoring games down the stretch. However, they didn't face a single defense all season which allowed less than 64 points per game and today they'll be facing a Louisville team which allowed oppposing teams to average just 61.3. The Cardinals, who are listed as double-digit favorites, should be able to control the tempo. That being said, I expect them to have a solid lead in the second half and for them to slow things down to limit the number of shots Boise can take to get back in the game. While I won't count on it, the hope is that Louisville has a big enough lead in the final minutes that there won't be a ton of late fouling. Regardless, the Cardinal have seen the UNDER go 40-25-1 the past three seasons when listed as favorites. That includes a highly profitable 7-1 mark since December, when favored by greater than eight points. The Cardinals faced nine teams which averaged 77 or more points per game this season. They did a good job of slowing those games down as they won six of them while seeing the UNDER go 6-3. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at an impressive 38-20 the last 58 times (games with a total) that the Cardinals faced a team which averaged 77 or more points per game. I expect those numbers to improve this evening with the final combined score falling beneath the generous number. *Opening Round Total of Year
Gameday
3* UCONN
2* W Kentucky
2* Gonzaga
2* St. Mary's
2* Clemson
2* Louisville
WUNDERDOG SPORTS
Game: American at Tennessee
Pick: Game Total UNDER 141.5
Tennessee's defense was a no-show in the SEC tournament and they have heard about it ever since. You can bet they are going to be looking to make a statement to the fans, press and to themselves here. The Vols are 13-4 UNDER the past two seasons after allowing 80 points in their last game. They are 10-2 UNDER the last twelve times they allowed 80+ in two straight games. American, winner of the Patriot League, will not bring much firepower here. What they do have is a very good defense. They held foes to 61.8 ppg this season. They haven't seen the likes of Tennesee's offense for sure, but their strength nonetheless is defense. Neutral court teams that outscore their opponents by 8+ per game, coming off two 80+ point performances go UNDER the next game 62% of the time as the line gets pushed out of whack. The fact is, Tennessee is 12-5 UNDER this season after scoring 80 points last game and 9-1 UNDER after a game in which 155+ points were scored. The reaction to Tennessee's last couple of games, coupled with no respect for American, has led to an inflated total and we'll take the UNDER
THE LAS VEGAS TECH REPORT
NEW ORLEANS -1.5 (ARENA FOOTBALL)
NEW YORK KNICKS -4 (NBA)
SOUTH ALABAMA vs BUTLER UNDER 126.5
DAVIDSON vs GONZAGA UNDER 142
CALIFORNIA vs MIAMI FLORIDA OVER 138
BIG AL
Opinion Florida
Opinion Louisville
Opinion Indiana
Opinion Vandy
Opinion St Mary
Opinion S Bama
Opinion West Kentucky
3 star Uconn
3 star Gonzaga
Seabass 1st report
20 UConn
20 S. Alabama
50 Gonzaga
10 Georgetown
10 Texas
100 Vegas Steam says he has won 3 in a row
W. Kentucky +
Rocketman
NBA
4* Denver -3 1/2
CBB Opinions Friday
Clemson
Indiana
Mississippi State
Miami Florida
Boise State
Kelso
10 units Gonz +2 v. Davidson
5 units Drake -4 v WKy
3 units San Diego +11.5 v. Conn
Alatex
15 Indiana