Doc's
5 Unit Play. #824 Take Connecticut -11 ½ over San Diego
The Huskies will take care of business on Friday playing in a familiar city, as South Florida is a member of the Big East Conference. This Toreros are living on borrowed time and received a big advantage of playing the WCC Tournament at home. Tampa is a far cry from California and making this cross country flight will eventually do them in. They have been off since March 10th and will not be able to match up with the size of the Huskies.
4 Unit Play. #824 Take Vanderbilt -6 ½ over Siena
If yesterday proved anything, it is that the higher seeds at the better team and today’s card exemplifies that to a T. Both teams like to run up and down the floor but Vandy has some size inside to take advantage of the Saints. This reminds me a lot of the Notre Dame dominating yesterday where the mid-major just did not belong of the floor with the BCS Conference squad.
4 Unit Play. #835 Take Arkansas +2 over Indiana
Indiana is a team that reminds me a lot about Arizona, as you can play them blindly despite have good talent. The writing is on the wall and Coach Dan Dakich will be replaced once this game is completed. The Hoosiers have lost three out of their last four games included bad losses against Penn State and Minnesota in their last two outings. Sonny Weems is probable tonight for the Hogs and this team has something to prove as well after getting bounced in the finals by Georgia. Indiana has not been the same team since Sampson left and with D.J. White and Eric Gordon likely gone, this team cannot wait for the season to be completed.
4 Unit Play. #834 Take Georgetown -16 ½ over Maryland – Baltimore County
I have to admit that I have never heard of this team and at least they are just a bus ride away because they will get pounded on Friday and be a one and done team. The Hoyas are angry after not showing up in the finals against Pittsburgh and thus will come out determined to make a statement on Friday. We used the Hoyas as a play last year in the opening round and that was against Belmont, a team that almost beat Duke last night. The Hoyas won that game by 25 points and that is the same number we expect this one to end on, as once Georgetown gets you down, there is no coming back.
4 Unit Play. #837 Take St. Mary’s -1 over Miami
The Gaels had a very successful season and kept under the radar for the most part and are playing an overrated Hurricane squad that has trouble scoring points. The Canes started the season 12-0, but did not play a murder’s row of non-conference opponents. Both teams play strong defense, so expect this to be a close low scoring tilt, but the veteran Gaels will pull out the victory.
Strike Point Sports
8-Unit Play. #843 Take St. Mary's PK over Miami
This Gaels team is really intruiging, and a dark horse to make it into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. But first they'll take care of the Hurricanes. St. Mary's has a much more balanced team, boasting the likes of point guard Patrick Mills, Diamon Simpson and sharpshooter Todd Golden. I think Miami has become reluctant and too reliable on Jack McClinton. Their bigs are foul prone, and I just think this match-up really favors the WCC rep. It will be the ten seed that advances, and let me just say I think they'll get Texas fits all day as well. This one goes to St. Mary's, play them here.
4-Unit Play. UT-Arlington/Memphis Over 142
UT-Arlington can score, and the top seeded Tigers can score even more. I think this number is way too low, and both will play in the 70s to say the least. The No. 16 Mavericks have either scored or allowed 80 or more in three of their last four games, and in this one Memphis will strike for an 80+ point effort. UT-Arlington can make up for the difference, but either way, this one goes over the number.
WUNDERDOG
Game: American vs. Tennessee
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 142 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Tennessee's defense was a no-show in the SEC tournament and they have heard about it ever since. You can bet they are going to be looking to make a statement to the fans, press and to themselves here. The Vols are 13-4 UNDER the past two seasons after allowing 80 points in their last game. They are 10-2 UNDER the last twelve times they allowed 80+ in two straight games. American, winner of the Patriot League, will not bring much firepower here. What they do have is a very good defense. They held foes to 61.8 ppg this season. They haven't seen the likes of Tennesee's offense for sure, but their strength nonetheless is defense. Neutral court teams that outscore their opponents by 8+ per game, coming off two 80+ point performances go UNDER the next game 62% of the time as the line gets pushed out of whack. The fact is, Tennessee is 12-5 UNDER this season after scoring 80 points last game and 9-1 UNDER after a game in which 155+ points were scored. The reaction to Tennessee's last couple of games, coupled with no respect for American, has led to an inflated total and we'll take the UNDER.
Game: South Alabama vs. Butler
Pick: 3 units on Butler -4 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Butler felt a bit snubbed by the selection committee as they feel their 29-3 record, including wins over Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Florida State and S. Illinois, was deserving of a better seed. The #5 seed last year, the Bulldogs didn't make a big stink about it. But we think they are motivated to send a message in this game. While the game is being played five hours from South Alabama's campus, we think Butler has just too much talent for the Jaguars to handle. The biggest difference between these two teams is on defense. South Alabama allowed 69.4 ppg on the road this season while Butler allowed just 58.9. Coming into this tourney, the Bulldogs played stellar, holding their last seven opponents to an average of 51 ppg! We like this mismatch and the motivation for Butler.
Game: Boise State vs. Louisville
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 148 -110 (risk 4 to win 3.6)
While Boise State enters this contest as one of the best shooting teams in the country, Louisville comes in as one of the best defensive teams in the nation. The Broncos put up some big-time offensive numbers, but have yet to face a team that is as tenacious on defense as Louisville. The Cardinals allow just 38.3% shooting, and 30.9% from three. Those numbers get even better when they got outside the BCS Conference schools, where they have allowed just 36.3%, and 30.3% from beyond the arc. Louisville has reached 80 just six times in its last 30 games, and we don't expect Boise State to try and get into a track meet with a quicker, more athletic team. The past three seasons, Louisville is 19-9 UNDER as a double-digit favorite. They are also 12-4 UNDER the past two seasons vs. good shooting teams like Boise State (those making 48%+ of their shots). We like this one to go UNDER the posted total.
Game: Texas Arlington vs. Memphis
Pick: 3 units on Game Total UNDER 142 -110 (risk 3 to win 2.7)
The Tigers were last a #1 seed in 2006 when they lost to UCLA in the regional finals. They should have little trouble with UT Arlington in this one. While the spread is a huge 25 points, we'll focus on the more reasonable total. The Mavericks are not a deficient team as they averaged 70.9 on the road this season but again Memphis, they are in for a very tough day. The Tigers allowed 59.4 ppg on the road this season (better than their home defense). They cut that to 54.2 over their last five games! Their last five foes have gotten 55, 56, 56, 53 and 51. Memphis is 17-6 UNDER in March games the past three seasons. They are 21-9 UNDER the past two seasons coming off a game in which they allowed 60 or fewere points. That includes a 10-2 UNDER mark if they allowed 60 or fewere in three straight games. We look for the Tigers to shut down Arlington in a big way, and for this game to stay UNDER the total.
3G / ICEMAN
10* Oregon
10* Louisville
5* W Ky
5* Nova
5* Gonzaga
4* St Joe
Bob Balfe
NBA Basketball
Nets +3.5 over Nuggets
College Basketball
American +19.5 over Tennessee
This line seems about right, but the Vols love to get crazy with the basketball and with this being an early start we hope Tennessee doesn't start coming around until after the half. This is the biggest public play of the day and after yesterday's favorite friendly day expect to see some dogs cashing.
Western Kentucky +4 over Drake
All I keep hearing about is how good Drake is and how good they can shoot the ball. Cornell was supposed to be a good shooting team and they got crushed yesterday same with CS Fullerton. Western Kentucky plays at a high pace and this should be a good one to watch. This is another game in which the public is heavy on Drake. Why is did the line drop 1/2 a point? I called KState yesterday. Today I am calling Western Kentucky.
South Alabama +4.5 over Butler
Butler has great guards, but they are small and believe it or not will not be the crowds favorite today. South Alabama will have the support from local fans in the tourney and will be out to prove the comity did the right thing by making them a 10 seed without winning their conference tournament. There is a lot of games all within the PK to -6 range today. I think you will see a majority of them going to the dogs.
Oklahoma -1 over St. Joes
Its funny how this line can be so even when everyone is betting St. Joes. Oklahoma is a physical team that St. Joes is just not used too. Other than Xavier the A-10 is just not that good as you could see in Temple yesterday. St. Joes is a tall team that can shoot the ball and will play a great game, but defense will win this game in the final minutes. St. Joes just has not played the talent that Oklahoma faces during the year.
Oregon +2.5 over Mississippi State
This is a game between two styles of play. Oklahoma has a great offense and State plays great defense. Both teams are horrible from the line, but that favors Oregon who can score more. If the Ducks get a big lead you can kiss this one goodbye. If Oregon gets by today I think they have a real shot to beat Memphis in round 2.
Siena +6.5 over Vanderbilt
If you were an oddsmaker in Vegas and you seen the favorites go something like 13-3 yesterday would you be dipping your lines? Vandy went from -8 to -6.5 and the public is pounding them. This line movement did nothing but increase Vanderbilt backers confidence. Siena protects the basketball and could be a Cinderella this year.
LARRY NESS
24*UConn
5*.Davidson
5*.St Mary's
5*.Austin Peay
Insider Vandy
Rocco V
Georgetown -16'
UConn -11
Texas Sports Wire
5* South Alabama
3* St Marys - Boise St - Arkansas - Villanova
Wolkosky Milan
10* PHILADELPHIA +6
10* TORONTO +5
10* MEMPHIS +3½
10* DEN/NJN UNDER 226
10* MIN/IND UNDER 212
Pointwise Phone Plays
Rating 1(top) to Rating 6(bottom)
Rating 2 UCONN
Rating 3 St. Mary's
Rating 4 Gonzaga
Rating 5 Georgetown, S. Alabama
Rating 6 Tennessee, Drake, Texas
KeithMartinsports:
Due to yesterdays Hammer play going down. Which by the way, if anyone knows a good tv repairman who can remove a beer bottle from the screen, I could use the number. I am giving the rest of the weekend at no cost to you.
Davidson under 141.5
UNC under 150.5 (Posted as Free Play on website)
San Diego over 130.5
SportsKingz
BUTLER BULLDOGS -4 (15 UNITS)
CLEMSON TIGERS -5 (15 UNITS)
Chris James Sports (Early Games)
2* W Kentucky
1* Uconn
1* Gonzaga
LT Ptofits
2*Villanova
2*Arkansas
2*Siena
Delaney
10* Indiana
10* Vanderbilt