Friday Service Plays

Right Angle Sports (RAS)

Stanford vs Texas

Play: Texas -2

Stanford vs Texas (-2) - 4:25pm Pacific - Friday - Game #879-880
Rick Barnes mentioned early in the season that this Longhorn team had a chance to be very good and they certainly have not disappointed. Texas earned impressive non-conference wins vs #1 seed UCLA and vs #2 seed Tennessee, both away from home, even before rotation freshman forward Gary Johnson was cleared to play. Johnson also sat out recent Big 12 championship loss to Kansas that went down to the wire. He returned to play a limited role vs Miami Fla last week and will be closer to full strength Friday. Texas not only has one of the best backcourts in the nation, which is critical at this time of year, but also has above average quickness at nearly every position. Both of these strengths will enable them to exploit Stanford's two biggest weaknesses, backcourt play and team speed. Texas can also neutralize Stanford's size advantage with their ability to play zone defense at a high level, having done so throughout the regular season. Huge 6-10/300 reserve center Pittman has emerged as a factor in recent games and will take up space inside for parts of the game. Stanford played no one in non-conference play. Of their four wins over the Sagarin top 25, three came vs slow Washington State, and the fourth came in their last game, a one point OT thriller over Marquette played in Anaheim. Stanford more or less has given up on their reserve guards as starters Johnson and Goods each played 40+ minutes vs Marquette. Despite the final score of last game, Texas has coasted through the first two rounds and now will have the huge advantage of playing just 2 1/2 hours from campus.Give the points.

Play: Texas -2

Dominic Brando

Sweet 16 Top 100 Unit Release

DAVIDSON WILDCATS +5/-115

WILD BILL

Over 143 Villanova-Kansas (2 units)
Wisconsin -5 (5 units)
Michigan St +4 1/2 (1 unit)
Over 135 Texas-Stanford (4 units)
Stanford +2 1/2 (2 units)

ER

20* Playmaker: Memphis Over 134

EZ WINNERS

These are the Sweet 16 selections, including my 10 STAR NCAA Basketball Game of the Year!

10 STAR: (877) MICHIGAN STATE (+5) over Memphis
(Risking $1100 to win $1000)

3 STAR: (876) WISCONSIN (-4) over Davidson
(Risking $330 to win $300)

2 STAR: (879) STANFORD (+1.5) over Texas
(Risking $220 to win $200)

1 STAR: (874) KANSAS (-11.5) over Villanova
(Risking $110 to win $100)

Psychicsportspicks

Villanova's defense has been excellent over the past month, but they haven't played against a team as deep and talented as the Jayhawks.Kansas frontcourt is much more athletic than what they have faced. Both teams rely heavily on the perimeter game, but Kansas is better equipped to weather a drought and rally if it falls behind. Highly unlikely. Kansas wins easily

2 units Kansas

WINNING POINTS

***BEST BET
*Philadelphia over Phoenix by 7
The 76ers have been at their best against non-physical, finesse teams that don’t playmuch defense like the Suns. Philadelphia also has been extremely tough at home going 11-3 ATS during their past 14 home contests through March 25. The Suns may not have much left in the tank after physical road matchups versus Detroit on Monday and Boston on Wednesday. The Suns also may be without sharpshooter Raja Bell (check status).PHILADELPHIA 115-108.

***BEST BET
*Milwaukee over Orlando by 6
Sandwiched around home games versus elite Western Conference clubs San Antonio and New Orleans, the Magic may take this road matchup too lightly. The Bucks have firepower with marksman Michael Redd, underrated point guard Mo Williams, improved center Andrew Bogut and a healthy Charlie Villanueva, who has been playing well. The Bucks are auditioning for a new general manager with Larry Harris fired. Expect a strong home effort. MILWAUKEE 116-110.

***BEST BET
Washington over *Sacramento by 6
It’s not getting a lot of attention, but Washington has covered nine of its last 10 away
contests heading into a five-game West Coast swing. The Wizards have knocked off the Raptors, Magic and Hornets during this span, while coming within one point to the
Suns. There’s a chance, too, Gilbert Arenas might be able to suit up. The return of Caron Butler has been a boost to the Wizards. The Kings have depth issues because of injuries and are playing in their fifth game in eight days. WASHINGTON 109-103.

Kansas over Villanova by 9
Only one current player on either team – Kansas center Sasha The Stiff Kaun – participated in the 2004-05 1-1 split between the sides. But Bill Self and Jay Wright got opportunities to sniff each other’s pockets back then, with Self learning that Villanova is always a scrappy bunch of tenacious athletes who back down from nobody, and do a good job of turning defense to offense if the opponent allows it to happen. Clemson – as you know the dumbest team in America for whom we were all waiting to bet against in the Big Dance – allowed it to happen. Siena wasn’t physical enough to prevent it from happening. Kansas appears to be in a position to hold off the Wildcats given their overall scoring balance -- 1.27 points per possession, most in the nation this year. And with Russell Robinson, the 6-1, 205 point guard, an experienced senior. Kansas’ group of guards have good-sized bodies, which is very important for playing against Villanova, where Jay Wright’s good-sized guards get up in the grill of anyone and everyone for as long as they can get away with it. ‘Nova’s freshman guards Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes are good and getting better. But asking them to join with steady soph point guard Scottie Reynolds and stay on a scoring pace with four Kansas’ double-digit scorers – three upperclassmen plus 6-9, 225 soph Darrell Arthur -- is a tall order for them to fill. Self might also dial up his ex-assistant Little Normie Roberts of St. John’s for some of the latest lowdown on playing against ‘Nova. KANSAS, 78-69.

Wisconsin over Davidson by 1

You are not surprised that Davidson is here, because you read “Davidson over
Georgetown by 1” in last week’s issue. Bob The Builder McKillopp’s Wildcats fear
nobody, and neither should you when a supposedly “no-name” team meets a historic
but overrated (in the match-up) name brand. The only reason for the call above is that 6-2, 185 senior guard Michael Flowers of the Badgers is one of the best defensive guards in the nation and might be able to play 6-3, 185 Stephen Curry better than anyone has all season. Still, that doesn’t mean Curry cannot still go off for his 25-point average. Wisconsin’s beef is well distributed, but Bo Ryan does not want to get too big and tall for too long here, and risk going stale on the offensive end while Davidson makes one its runs that brought them back from double-digit deficits against both Gonzaga and Georgetown. Forget about Davidson getting tired. They came back against a quickpaced and deep Gonzaga team, and against a physical Georgetown team that plays at a pace that normally prevents comebacks. Wisconsin’s normal pedestrian pace (62.5 possessions per game) won’t wind the Wildcats, who will feel as if they are playing against similarly paced SoCon foe Wofford – but with more than a slight difference in size and quality. WISCONSIN, 58-57.

Michigan State over Memphis by 1
They say Memphis played a tough non-conference schedule to help prepare them for
the Tournament, but if you remember, Memphis struggled to beat USC, struggled to
beat Gonzaga, lost outright to Tennessee. They are 0-2 ATS so far in the Big Dance.
Why lay points with a group of NBA-eyeing kids who can’t shoot free throws and feel
that they have a birthright to the Final Four? We’ve often said that a team needs two
sizable big men who can stay on the floor, backed by one sizable big man off the bench, in order to either cover, or compete and possibly beat Memphis. The Spartans have Raymar Morgan, Goran Sutton, Drew Naymick and Marquise Gray, ranging from 6-7 to 6-10, 225 to 245, all playing double-digit minutes. And what the heck, Izzo, why not throw in 6-11, 255 Idong Ibok (like you did for 13 scoreless minutes against Pitt) and 7-0 Tom Herzog for good measure and just bump and grind Memphis off their game and onto the free-throw line, where 59.5% makes ain’t gonna cut it? It’s just a question of whether or not guard Drew Neitzel can hold his end of the bargain and stay on the floor for 36 minutes. Memphis guard Derrick Rose isn’t about to receive any special treatment as a one-and-done-with-college freshman attempting to lead his team to a championship. Has not, and will not, be puttin’ in the time necessary to earn the love. Neitzel, fourth-year senior. He’s your man. MICHIGAN STATE, 69-68.

Texas over Stanford by 5
Stanford head coach Trent Johnson did his team a favor by getting double-technicaled off the floor in last weekend’s Second Round win against Marquette, with Stanford outscoring Marquette after Johnson was banned from the proceedings. The wise guy word is that Johnson does less with more, citing Stanford’s 10-man rotation of mostly upperclassmen, dual 7-footers, 28-7 SU record, yet just 18-17 ATS record. Who are we to argue? Texas withstood a legit second-round challenge from a tough, Miami-FL team whose coaches knew Texas as well as anyone in the tournament, two of them having been hired by Rick Barnes to work as Longhorns’ assistants for multiple recent seasons. Good guards are usually the way to go in tournament action, yet, as mentioned many times about Stanford, their biggest impact players are the 7-foot Lopez twins. They have a lot of able bodies that enable them to compete with anyone in the nation for a long time on any given night, and they are longer and leaner on defense than most people realize. But Texas’ backcourt of Augustin and Abrams are elite players capable of going for 20 apiece, and the 3-point range of 6-10 Atchley should force one Stanford twin father away from the basket and enable Texas to compete well enough on the boards to win. TEXAS, 75-70

SPORTS MEMO

Recommendation: Kansas
Few expected Villanova to make it this far, but despite being one of the last teams to make the tournament, they are still a Big East team that won 20 games during the regular season. The Wildcats are nothing more than a solid team playing its best basketball of the season. Guard Scottie Reynolds is performing up to his capabilities, and the defense is making key stops when needed. The only hope for Villanova in this one, however, is to string multiple stops on the defensive end together, something few teams were able to do against the offense of Kansas. And after playing the suspect defenses of Clemson and Siena, Villanova must now face a team capable of completely taking Reynolds out of the game. UNLV went to line 34 times vs. only 15 for Kansas, yet the Jayhawks won by 20. The reason was KU’s defense, which allowed its first two opponents to shoot 33-of-100 from the floor. For the season, Villanova shot just 43% as a team, a number we will likely see against KU’s stout defense.It is a unique situation because Villanova is better than its No. 12 seed, but Kansas will be the best team the Wildcats have faced all season and nothing suggests that they are strong enough to make this a game. Look for Villanova’s run of hot shooting to come to a halt as we lay the points with Kansas.

Recommendation: Davidson
In one of the more amazing statistical stories of the tournament, the Wildcats scored 47 second half points against the vaunted Georgetown defense and for the game, shot just 39% to the Hoyas’ 63% and somehow came away with the victory. The reason was Stephen Curry, who is currently the tournament’s Most Valuable Player. He is getting plenty of support from his teammates, especially on defense, but expect Wisconsin to respect Curry a bit more than Georgetown did. Wisconsin is as stingy as its comes on the defensive end. They allowed Kansas State’s Michael Beasley and Bill Walker to get their allotment of points and completely took out the rest of the Wildcats squad. They’ll face a similar situation here in guarding Curry. It’s been 12 games since the Badgers allowed 70 points or more and even if Curry goes off for 30-plus, the Wildcats are going to need to continue getting help from the supporting cast. The best comparison we can give you in terms of what to expect offensively out of Davidson is when they lost to UCLA 75-63. Curry was limited to 15 points and the Bruins used their physical prowess to bully Davidson in the paint. Wisconsin has that type of defense, but their lack of offense should allow Davidson to keep within striking distance at all times. We expect this game to go down to the last few minutes and we’ll back the Wildcats catching a fair amount of points

Recommendation: Memphis
Memphis didn’t look the part of a No. 1 seed in its narrow win over Mississippi State. The Bulldogs played a physical game and were able to find success working the ball down low and fouling out both Robert Dozier and Joey Dorsey. And for the first time, we actually saw the Tigers’ poor free throw shooting play a role. It wasn’t in the straight up outcome of the game, but Memphis should have covered the 9-point spread had it not been for the 15-of-32, 47% effort from the line. Memphis has now covered only three times in its last 15 games. Michigan State is finally playing up to its capabilities. They beat Pittsburgh at its own game by outrebounding them 33 to 20 and making life miserable for the Panthers on the perimeter. Guard Drew Neitzel continued his up and down play with five points against Temple and 21 vs. Pitt. But his biggest issue is going to be guarding Chris Roberts-Douglas and Derrick Rose. Even with Memphis’ proneness for mistakes, Michigan State is going to have a huge uphill battle keeping those two from having big games. In our opinion, if Memphis shows up, they are at least 10 points better than the Spartans on a neutral court. With the short line, you’re better off taking who you think will win the game outright
and we feel Memphis should advance. Lay the points

Recommendation: Texas
It won’t take Texas but two minutes of watching a tape of Stanford to know that if they can stop Brook Lopez, then they’ll have a big advantage. The Cardinal repeatedly were able to get Lopez the ball in the win over Marquette and each and every time he either got a good look or was able to kick to an open player on the perimeter. The Longhorns will try and counter Lopez with junior center Connor Atchley. Keeping Atchley out of foul trouble is imperative for Texas. He’s not much of a scorer, but any production they can get from him will be an added bonus. A lot of Lopez’ success against Marquette came from him not having to do much work on the defensive end. Stanford is a strong defensive bunch, but a lack of quickness on the perimeter nearly cost them the game against Marquette. Guard Jerel McNeal had a field day with 30 points on 13-of-25 shooting. Texas’ defense is vastly underrated and we need to point out they’ve held nine of their last 12 opponents to 40% or lower from the floor. Even with that advantage of Lopez down low, we expect Stanford to struggle to score. Keep in mind, this is a team that shot only 45% as a team on the year and close to 40% outside of both Lopez brothers. We’ll take the Longhorns in this one laying less than a bucket.

ROB VENO:

Recommendation: Suns
PHOENIX - PHILADELPHIA
Phoenix has fought through the on-court struggles of integrating Shaquille O’Neal into the system and now sit just a half game away from the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed position. Through this current 6-0-1 pointspread run, Phoenix has defeated opponents by an average of 14 points per game with eight points being the closest anyone has come to them. The offense demonstrated how fluid it’s running at this point with a brilliant 56.5% shooting effort last Saturday night versus the defensively sound Houston Rockets. O’Neal and frontcourt mate Amare Stoudamire dominated Houston’s frontline starters as they each recorded a double-double combining for 61 points and 26 rebounds. The victory marked the sixth straight game in which the Suns have amazingly shot 55% or better and the sixth time during the winning streak that they’ve held their opponent to 45% FG shooting or less. Scheduling dynamics have Phoenix in what’s likely to be a very important spot here against the Sixers as HC D’Antoni’s troops face severe Monday and Wednesday tests at Detroit and Boston. Obviously Phoenix is pushing hard here at season’s end to move up from the No. 3 seed in the standings to a spot where they’d be relatively safe from any possibility of a first round playoff encounter with San Antonio. With the Suns being fundamentally fantastic right now and the schedule dictating they continue to play for victories, there’s already enough to recommend laying a short price with them here but adding to the attraction is a payback motive stemming from their March 1st home court 119-114 loss to these Sixers

FAIRWAY JAY

Recommendation: Over
NEW JERSEY-INDIANA
Home-and-home series for the Pacers and Nets, who will have played at Indiana Wednesday night. Now back in New Jersey,look for the fireworks to continue. Indiana has allowed over 100 points in eight-straight road games as the Pacers miss Jermaine O’Neal’s inside presence and just don’t defend. Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy and Flip Murray are all capable scorers and rebounders, and the Pacers provide good balance on the offensive end and prefer to push the ball and shoot. The Nets will welcome that style of play as New Jersey has made a commitment to share the ball more and the improved offensive rhythm has shown on the scoreboard. Point guard Devin Harris is more comfortable with leading scorers Richard Jefferson and Vince Carter, and New Jersey contests have gone over the total in four of their last five games. Nets coach Lawrence Frank has noted that his team needs to score more if they want to win down the stretch. Indiana lost at New Jersey a month ago 102-91 and will likely be ready for the Nets Wednesday and follow-up with a solid scoring output Friday night. Both teams enter the week just a game out of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and expect them to hold nothing back on the offensive end. Despite a projected high number, play over the total.

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Orlando

Note: Magic invade Milwaukee to take on the Bucks with revenge on their minds with both teams coming in off losses in their most recent game. We like the fact that Orlando is a sterling 10-0 ATS as a favorite in games they win SU when playing off a loss and with revenge. With the Bucks just 2-17-3 ATS in SU home losses as a dog against avenging opponents, look for the Magic to get their revenge here tonight.

Nelly

Washington + over Sacramento

The Wizards are quietly rising up the Eastern Conference playoff ladder having won seven of the past nine games. Washington is getting the job done on the road as well with wins in three or the past four games away from home. The Kings own a solid 22-12 record at home but Sacramento has not been terribly impressive in many recent home games. The Kings needed overtime to beat a bad Memphis team on Wednesday and also barely beat a struggling Toronto team without Chris Bosh in the lineup just over a week ago. Minnesota also won in Sacramento in the past ten games. The bottom line is that Sacramento is not a team that can be counted on to lay points against a playoff team. The Kings defense has given up at least 100 points in seven straight games while Washington plays sound defense on the road, allowing just 93 points per game in the last four road contests. The Wizards are also 9-3 ATS in the last twelve road games and the Wizards are a team that still has a lot to play for.

James Patrick Sports

Villanova vs. Kansas

The Jayhawks go at it with the Wildcats and are laying a huge number to the Big East Cats. Double-digits is a lot to give anybody let alone the school that owns the best mark as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament (13) as does Villanova. Head Coach Jay Wright is also 7-3 ATS in the Big Dance and we’ll grab the undercats as our Friday NCAA Tournament selection for Friday’s action.

Big Al Mcmordie

Game: Los Angeles Clippers at Utah Jazz
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers

Reason: At 9:05 pm, our member selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers plus the points over the Utah Jazz. Chris Kaman returned to the lineup for the Clips on Wednesday and had a big game vs. the San Antonio Spurs, scoring 16 points. Though it lost 97-88, Los Angeles actually had a five-point lead late in the game, but collapsed in the game's final few minutes. But I expect another solid performance tonight by Kaman, and also by rookie Al Thornton. The Jazz have covered just 31 of 80 games vs. losing teams, and we'll take the points with the Clippers.

Jimmy The Moose

Game: Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres
Prediction: over

Reason: Montreal has played over the total in 3 of their last 4 games. The over is 6-1 in their last 7 road games. In their last 10 games vs. division opponents the over is a profitable 7-2-1. Buffalo has played the over in 6 of their last 7 games. The over is 14-3-1 in their last 18 games overall. The over is 9-3 in Buffalo's last 12 home games. The over is 4-1 in Montreal's last 5 trips to Buffalo. The over is 6-3-1 in the last 10 meetings overall between the clubs. Play the over.

Karl Garrett

Kansas knows they must come out firing on all cylinders, and the fact 'Nova found themselves behind by nearly 20 points in the last round to an average Clemson team should tell you all you need to know about this matchup.

The Wildcats front line will be gobbled up in the paint, and the Jayhawks will unleash an assault that will have all Villanova fans ducking for cover.

In previous years under Bill Self, the Jayhawks have found a way to stumble right around now, but this year is different. KU has won 8 in a row, and they have covered their last 3, and 6 of those 8.

Lay the wood as Kansas moves on in convincing fashion.

4* KANSAS (on a 1* to 5* basis)

Michael Cannon

Take the points with Villanova tonight when they battle Kansas in the Midwest Regional.

There's no question Kansas is a deep and talented team poised to make a run to the Final Four.

But don't look past the value you're getting with a Villanova team that has played well lately.

The Wildcats are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games, including 2-0 ATS in the first two rounds of the tournament. There's no question playing in the rugged Big East has helped Villanova's cause so far, and they won't be intimidated going against the heavily favored Jayhawks.

Villanova owns more victories (13) as an underdog seed in the Big Dance than any team in history. Coach Jay Wright has a 7-3 SU record in tournament play, guiding the Wildcats to the Sweet 16 in 2005 and the Elite Eight a year later.

Kansas is the more talented team, but I see great value in taking the points with Villanova here.

Take Villanova plus the big number here tonight over Kansas.

2* VILLANOVA On a 1* to 5* basis

Vegas Sports Pics

Davidson Wildcats + 5 over Wisconsin Badgers

Davidson enters on a nation's longest 24 game win streak off beating No.8 Georgetown 74-70 in the last round. Wildcat's Curry ranks 4th in the nation in scoring and 1st in three-pointers made.

Kansas Jayhawks - 12 over Villanova Wildcats

Kansas leads the nation with a plus 20.0 scoring margin. The Jayhawks rank third in field goal percentage, fourth in field goal percentage defense, and sixth in rebounding margin.