Matt Fargo
Michigan State @ Memphis
PICK: Michigan State
REASON FOR PICK: I have said it all season long and it almost came back to haunt Memphis on Sunday. The Tigers struggles at the free throw line are going to cost them a game at some point and if that game against Mississippi St. was closer, they would have lost it. They blew a seven-point lead in the last 33 seconds of the game as they went 6-12 from the line in the closing half minute and gave the Bulldogs a last second chance to tie the game. On the season, the Tigers are hitting a pitiful 59.2 percent from the stripe.
Tempo will be important in this game. Memphis will want a track meet while the Spartans will want to stick with a slow down, half-court game. Which ever team can dictate the tempo has a big advantage right from the start. Michigan St. head coach Tom Izzo is a master of the gameplan and I’m saying that he can keep the game at the pace he wants. Looking at the defensive numbers of late shows that Michigan St. will not have a problem as it has allowed just 59 ppg over its last six games.
Athletically, the Tigers are arguably the tops in the country. While Michigan St. cannot matchup in that respect, it does matchup well in a position by position basis. The backcourt of the Spartans lives and dies with Drew Neitzel. Neitzel has averaged 20 ppg over the last four games and was clutch against Pittsburgh as he scored 21 points including 12 of the Spartans final 20 points in the final seven minutes. Kalin Lucas should be able to frustrate both of the Memphis guards as he is crazy fast.
Down low, the Tigers have three great players in Joey Dorsey, Shawn Taggart, and Robert Dozier but the Spartans can combat the trio as they have great depth down low, going six deep including Raymar Morgan and Drew Naymick who both are capable of producing big games. They also combined to shoot 70 percent from the free throw line while the three aforementioned Tigers hit a combined 54.8 percent. I know who I would rather have in a game of this magnitude.
Playing on a neutral floor has been great for the Spartans as they are a perfect 8-0 ATS in all neutral court games this season. As mentioned, the defense of Michigan St. is vital and playing top offenses has been no problem as it is 11-3 ATS away from home against teams shooting 45 or better this season and it is 12-3 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in two straight games this season. Memphis meanwhile is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games. The pace winner wins this one and the Spartans are in great shape for that. Play Michigan St. Spartans 1 Unit
Stephen Nover
Davidson @ Wisconsin
PICK: Wisconsin
REASON FOR PICK: One of the many reasons why I'm such a fan of Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan is because he knows how to get the Badgers to peak at the right time. The Badgers are still an improving club. It's not a fluke the oddsmaker has been a little behind on them as the Badgers have covered nine of their last 10 games. This line is short, too.
The Badgers are the best defensive team in the country, yielding just 53.9 points per game. Only seven foes managed to reach 60 points or more against Wisconsin.
Davidson, though, scored an impressive 74 points in its second-round victory against another great defensive club, Georgetown. Stephen Curry is the hottest shooter in the tournament.
But I don't see the Wildcats continuing their fantastic shooting. The time off has slowed their momentum and brought extra media scrutiny to their small campus.
It's not just the Badgers' tight defense and ace defender Michael Flowers, which are going to impact Davidson's offense. The matchup is being played in Detroit's spacious Ford Field, a football dome stadium where the Lions play.
The NCAA is experimenting by having the court situated right in the middle of the football field. The way it usually is done at football dome stadiums hosting basketball game is to have the court situated on one end instead of the middle. Not this time. This could result in shooting problems because of the raised floor and lack of background in the huge stadium.
This isn't going to bother Wisconsin nearly as much Davidson. The Badgers have a balanced, inside-out scoring attack. Their calling card is defense not offense. But Davidson, being a tiny school, isn't used to playing in such large arenas or dome stadiums.
Sportsbettingstats
#7 Texas Longhorns (30-6) vs. #11 Stanford Cardinal (28-7)
Texas comes into this Sweet 16 match up after beating Miami 75-72, while Stanford beat Marquette in overtime 82-81.Texas is playing well entering the Sweet 16 and the season will be seen as a disappointment if they do not reach the Elite 8. Stanford stumbled at the end of the year losing their last 2 conference games, which cost them a #2 seed, but now they are confident after their hard fought overtime win over a tough Marquette team. Texas is led by Guard D.J. Augustin (19.2 ppg), but the Longhorns other Guard A.J. Abrams was the go to guy in the win over Miami going for a game high 26 points. Augustin struggled in the game shooting only 4/12 for 12 points, but did dish out 8 assists. In that game the Longhorns shot 25/57 for a field goal percentage of 43.9%. The Longhorns dominated the Hurricanes on the boards out rebounding them 39-27. On defense Texas held Miami to 22/55 for a field goal percentage of 40%. Stanford is led by All-American candidate Brook Lopez (19 ppg 8.1 rpg), who in the win against Marquette was dominant with 30 points including the game winner with 1.3 seconds left. In that game the Cardinal shot 28/60 for a field goal percentage of 46.7%. Stanford was out rebounded by Marquette 38-31. On defense Stanford held Marquette to 31/73 shooting for a field goal percentage of 42.5%.
Staff Pick: This game will depend on which Texas team shows up: the one that dominated Miami for most of the game or the one that ended the game poorly and almost let the game slip away. The strength of the Longhorns is their backcourt, while Stanford is strong down low. Both teams have to find a way to stop the other team's strengths. Texas will have a tough time matching up with the size of Stanford, especially the literal twin towers of Brook and Robin Lopez, who are a couple of 7 footers with legit skills. If the Longhorns shoot well from the perimeter, especially behind the 3-point line, they should be able to offset their frontcourt limitations. Stanford has too much strength down low for the Longhorns to handle and they have decent perimeter defenders, so the edge in the game has to go to the Cardinal. The Cardinal will come out strong and take it to the Longhorns with physical play. Look for a physical game, which the Cardinal will win in a minor upset and advance to the Elite 8.
Cardinal 74 Longhorns 72
Jim Feist.
ORL Magic and MIL Bucks.
Take "Over"
Orlando still has a lot to learn about defense. They just allowed 107 at home to the Spurs, and are giving up 101 ppg on the road. They take on a Milwaukee team that hasn.5?t played any defense the last two seasons. The Bucks allow over 47% shooting by opponents, second worst in the NBA ahead only of miserable Memphis. The Bucks are 21-14 over the total at home where they like to put up points, but don.5?t give a lick about stopping the opposition. Play the Magic/Bucks over!
Dave Cokin
LA Clippers and UTH Jazz
Take "UTH Jazz"
I'm definitely not an advocate of laying monster points in the NBA during the heart of the season. But toward the tail end, it's often a good idea. Looking for the blowout with a powerhouse homer against a non-contending visitor that's been exhibiting less than enthusiastic tendencies is not a bad move. That's the scenario Friday in Utah as the Jazz host the lowly Clippers, and I'll look for the wipeout. Utah minus the big number.
Great Lakes
Stanford vs Texas
Play on: Texas Longhornes
The Texas Longhornes are 4-2 ATS in tournament games this year, and 3-0 ATS when playing on Friday nights this year while the Stanford Cardinals are 5-8 ATS after a non-conference game this year, and 6-10 ATS when playing in March the last three years. We look for the Texas Longhornes to roll over the Stanford Cardinals for the ATS Win & cover tonight.
Cappers Access
Stanford
Villanova
Cajun-Sports
Washington Wizards vs Sacramento Kings
Rating: THREE-Star (Ratings from 1 to 6 Units)
Selection: WASHINGTON WIZARDS +2.5
Analysis: The Kings will play host to the surging Wizards at Arco on Friday night and in most cases since their loss to these Wizards back on December 15th 92 to 79 you would lean towards a little revenge for the Kings. Well, like I said in most cases you would but not in this one, the Wizards have won five straight and posted a 4-1 ATS record in this series including two in a row at Arco Arena. The Wizards have not only played well against the Kings but they have defeated the Celtics twice in 3 days back in January. They have recently knocked off the Magic, Raptors, Hornets and came within one point of the Suns. The Kings are struggling with injury issues which will pose a depth problem especially since they are playing their fifth game in eight days. On the playoff front the Wizards are chasing Cleveland for a home court and they realize how important each game is this time of the year. We should get a solid effort from the Wizards as they have the healthier team and more motivation. Data base research has uncovered a few negative situations that the Kings qualify in. The Kings off an ATS loss and going under in their last game now a non-conference home favorite they are 12-26-2 ATS. Sacramento coming off an ATS loss and going under at home in their last game now a non-conference home favorite are 6-18 ATS. One final situation that applies to the Kings as they are 2-10 ATS off a SU win and ATS loss while going under in their last game and now installed as a non-conference home favorite. The Wizards when coming in off a SU win and are now in a game with a line range of 2 to 4 points are 69-44-3 ATS. We also found that teams who are off a SU win and an ATS loss in their last game and are now playing on the non-conference road with a line range of 2 to 4 points are 64-42-4 ATS. Washington has also been money for their backers when installed as a road underdog of less than 6 points this season posting a record of 11-2 ATS. One final technical set to solidify our position on the Wizards, it?s a system that says to Play Against NBA home teams where the line is +3 to -3 in a game involving two teams (+/- 3 points per game differential) after 42 or more games, after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games, 58-25 ATS since 1996. Take the points here as the Washington Wizards get the call as our NBA 3* Super Situation Selection for Friday.
KELSO STURGEON NEWSLETTER
BOSTON CELTICS by 9 over New Orleans Hornets - It's pay-back time in Boston tonight and you can bet the Celtics are primed to pull it off. These teams met last Saturday in New Orleans and the Hornets won 113-106 as a 1-point favorite. This is the third straight home game for the Boston Celtics and it must be noted they are 29-5 on the home floor. The Hornets are playing quite well, but Boston should get the money in this revenge spot.
ATLANTA HAWKS by 5 over Chicago Bulls - Despite being 30-39 at this point of the season the Atlanta Hawks are still very much alive for the eighth spot in the playoffs and, like Golden State, must wins the games it is supposed to win. The Hawks are playing their best basketball right now, stand 21-13 at home and should again bring their "A" game against a lifeless team they know they can beat. For the record, the Bulls are 11-24 on the road this season.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS by 40 over Memphis Grizzlies - There is one thing the Los Angeles Lakers are not and that is benevolent. They fire their best shot at everybody, at home or on the road, and show absolutely no mercy against the weaker teams in the NBA. In fact this is the kind of game in which the Lakers' Kobe Bryant might outscore the other team by himself. Los Angeles is 24-9 at home this season while Memphis is 5-29 on the road. There is no reason to believe this game will be close.
Arthur Ralph
Super Pick: Kansas
900 GOLD KEY: Michigan State Over
Free play: TEXAS
BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
Play on: Phoenix plus over Philadelphia
To start the month off, the Sixers went out to Phoenix as a ( +9½ ) underdog, but won the whole game 119-114. The Suns were stunned to say the least, but here visitor shows off a major road loss to the Celtics up in Boston.. So in essence, this could be a tougher game for the “hot” Sixers. Phoenix is 12-5 ATS off a SU loss, while the Sixers are 12-3 ATS at home, but just 3-7 ATS on Friday’s. With Phoenix 8 of 11 ATS in the series, would not be surprised to see major Suns win!
Jack Clayton
Orlando/Milwaukee Over
Nick Parsons
Memphis
Madduxsports
Memphis -4.5
Computer Sports
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
MIGHTY QUINN
Stanford.
ARTHUR RALPH
TEXAS
Sportsguru
Texas
Winning Way Sports
La/Utah Over
FAT JACK SPORTS
Memphis -4.5
Scott Spreitzer
Nets
MustWinSportsPicks
Montreal -1.5
Lasvegassportsadvisors
Colorado NHL
#1 Sports Free
Texas
BRW Sports Advisors
Wisconsin -4.5
VEGAS STEAMLINE
Minnesota +12.5
Razor Sharp Sports
Clippers/Jazz Over
Joe Wiz
Celtics
TWolves
Handicapper World
Villanova +12 (HUGE)
Wisconsin -5
BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
STANFORD
Game: Stanford vs. Texas
Prediction: Stanford Reason: I'm taking the points with STANFORD. Most people feel that the Longhorns will have the advantage, due to the fact that this game is being played in the state of Texas. While its true that the Longhorns will have the large majority of the fans on their side, let's remember that it's not screaming orange-clad fans that are the ones being asked to guard the Lopez brothers. As Stanford coach Trent Johnson told his team: "...the crowds get bigger and the magnitudes in question in the game gets bigger, but it's still a game itself, and your ability to relax and do what you've done all year long is going to put you in situations where you can be successful or not." Johnson's team is an experienced one and I believe that they'll respond well to the hostile crowd. Keep in mind that the Cardinal won road games at places like Arizona and Washington State, while losing in overtime at UCLA. The Cardinal was also 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in seven neutral court games with the lone SU loss coming by only three points. That was vs. UCLA in a game that was played at the Staples Center. In other words, Stanford has shown an ability to play well in road games and/or hostile 'neutral court' environments. It should also be noted that playing such a big game in front of friends and family doesn't always guarantee that these young kids will perform at a better level than normal, particularly when facing an extremely stingy Stanford defense which allows just 61 points per game. The Longhorns are a money-burning 4-11 SU/ATS the last 15 times they were "neutral court" underdogs of three points or less and an equally poor 5-12 ATS the last 17 times they were favored by four points or less overall on any court. After failing to cover vs. Miami last time out, the Longhorns are also now just 2-5-1 ATS this month. Stanford also failed to cover last time out. However, it was facing arguably a tougher opponent (Marquette instead of Miami) and I believe the fact that the Cardinal won the game without their coach (ejected in first half) will bring the team even closer together for today's huge game. Behind another big game from the Lopez twins, look for the Cardinal to 'shock' the Longhorns and their fans, advancing to the Elite 8.
WISCONSIN
Game: Davidson vs. Wisconsin
Prediction: Wisconsin Reason: I'm laying the points with WISCONSIN. Ok, by now we now we all know that Stephen Curry is pretty darn good. After sneaking by Gonzaga (the Wildcats trailed almost the entire way) the Wildcats did the unthinkable and delivered a major upset vs. a powerful Georgetown team. Keep in mind that both those wins came at Raleigh, which is very close to the Davidson campus. The Wildcats won't have that luxury today. The Hoyas knew all about Curry but were seemingly too arrogant to really believe that they could be beaten. I don't expect the Badgers to make the same mistake or have the same attitude. Not having witnessed what happened to Georgetown and not with defensive specialist Michael Flowers in the fold. Flowers has been studying Curry's every move since the minute the Wildcats knocked off the Hoyas. While Curry will obviously get his points, I believe that his overall production and shooting percentage will suffer a decline with Flowers sticking him to like glue. He's certainly not going to get some of the open looks he got in the first two games. As Flowers said about Curry: "Whether he has eight points or 12 or 34, I would want him to say he had to work for every point he got." Flowers was also quoted as saying: "Preparation for this game has been going on my whole career at Wisconsin. Hopefully, I was a good enough student of the game to make Curry react to me and make him uncomfortable and just discourage him from getting an open look." Having spent his career as Badger guarding scorers like Curry in Michigan State’s Drew Neitzel, Indiana’s Eric Gordon and former Illinois guard Dee Brown, Flowers knows what he's getting into. Keep in mind that the Badgers also faced a team with a pretty good player in their last game, as K-State's Michael Beasley is projected to go extremely high in the NBA draft. The result was a lopsided 17 point Wisconsin victory. That was the Badgers' 12th straight win with seven of the last eight of those victories coming by double-digits. Note that the well-coached Badgers are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS this season when having five or six day's rest in between games. The Wildcats have been a great story. However, all stories need to come to an end. Playing outside the state of North Carolina and against a tenacious Wisconsin defense which allows just 53.9 points per game, look for the Wildcats' winning streak and "Cinderalle story" to come to an end with the Badgers moving to 7-0 SU/ATS the last seven times they were favored by six points or less. *Sweet 16 Game of the Year
UNDER Michigan State/Memphis
NBA
SEATTLE
I'm taking the points with SEATTLE. The Sonics have quietly been playing pretty well lately, having gone 3-0 ATS their last three games. Likely 'rookie of the year,' Kevin Durant has scored at least 20 points in four consecutive games, shooting 58.8 percent from the field while making 16 of his 17 free throws. He scored 32 last time out and figures to be highly motivated here, both due to the fact that his former college team (Texas) just finished playing and also as he is still trying to lock down the league's top rookie award. The Sonics have only got a few winnable games left here at Seattle and tonight certainly represents one of them. Yes, the Bobcats come off an unlikely upset vs. the Lakers. However, they're still an awful 3-15 their last 18 on the road and an equally dismal 7-28 on the season. Not surprisingly, the Bobcats have only been listed as road favorites once in all of 2008. That was less than two weeks ago, at Memphis. The Bobcats were laying -2.5 or -3 for that game but got outscored 56-33 in the second half, en route to an 18 point loss. Despite the win over the Lakers, the Bobcats know they won't be making the playoffs. That being said, I feel that it will be difficult to get up emotionally for a road game vs. the lowly Sonics. Look for the Sonics to be the hungrier team this evening as they continue their recent improved play and earn their fourth straight cover. *Best Bet
Beatyourbookie
CBB
100* Stanford +2
50* Davidson +4.5
NBA
50* Lakers -15