2-Minute Warning
Memphis
Drew Gordon
1. 200,000* Texas
2. 50,000* Hornets
LT's Lock
Stanford +2
Priceless Picks
1 Unit on Stanford/Texas OVER 135
Texas is 6-0 OVER in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. Stanford is 10-3 OVER in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season and 9-0 OVER in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games this season. Stanford is 8-1 OVER in all road tournament games over the last 3 seasons and 13-4 OVER NCAA tournament games since 1997. Stanford is known for its defense but it has really picked up its scoring in the NCAA Tournament averaging 79.5 ppg. The Horns are scoring 74.5 ppg in the Dance. We’ll take the OVER here as these team are just too talented offensively to stifle one another. Bet the OVER.
Jeff Alexander Sports
1 Unit on Davidson/Wisconsin Under 126
Wisconsin is an unders machine with its ability to defend. The Badgers have gone under the number in 8 of their last 9 games. Wisconsin is 11-0 UNDER in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games since 1997, 6-0 UNDER when playing with 5 or 6 days rest this season, 21-8 UNDER as a favorite this season. Davidson is 17-9 UNDER after 1 or more consecutive wins this season, 12-3 UNDER versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% since 1997, and 20-8 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons. Take the Under.
Locksmith Sports
1 Unit on Kansas -11.5
Villanova is not deep enough to be able to run and gun with Kansas . The 12-seed Wildcats have made a nice little run, but it all stops here. Kansas has now won 9 straight games and 6 of its last 8 ATS. Villanova is 0-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season and 0-6 ATS after a combined score of 155 points or more this season. This shows you the inconsistency of Villanova as it is unable to sustain championship-caliber play. Kansas is 11-2 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 2 seasons and 13-6 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins this season. The Jayhawks have been playing with a chip on their shoulder after being taken out in the Elite Eight last season. We’ll take Kansas here as the Jayhawks put another big time beating on an opponent.
Alex Smart
Charlotte Bobcats -3.0
Charlotte enters into this tilt , against their hosts Seattle, off a nice win against the LA Lakers last time out, by a score of 108-95, as 13 point dogs, behind a 34 point performance from Jason Richardson. I expect the Bobcats will build on the momentum, of that victory against a Sonics team that has lost 12 of their L/13 and 6 of their L/7 at home in the Emerald City. Final notes & Key Trends: Charlotte is 21-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons. Play on the Bobcats to grab the cash
Power Play of the day
Nova/Kansas over 143.5
DOC'S
6 Unit Play.Take Wisconsin -4½ over Davidson
The Badgers continue to get it done and will not let a one trick pony beat them. They faced a much better team in Kansas State last Saturday with the likely No. 1 overall pick in the NBA draft. Beasley got his points, but that game was never in doubt, as Bucky took control early and never looked back. Sound familiar with Davidson and Stephen Curry? Davidson played outstanding in the first two games but keep in mind those games were played in North Carolina and Detroit ain’t in NC. The Badgers always travel well and they will have a huge crowd edge playing @ Ford Field. Curry will get his points, but will have to work hard for them and there is just too much balance on Wisconsin for the Wildcats to stay in this game. The Badgers have never lost to a mid-major under Bo Ryan in the tournament and there is only one way to beat them. You have to have better talent and Davidson does not fit that criteria.
4 Unit Play.Take Texas -2 over Stanford
This is a great match-up between two contrasting styles with Texas dominating the guards and Stanford have the edge inside. We will side with the Horns since they will have a huge advantage playing this game in Houston. Stanford has not had much success recently in the tournament and they have maxed out on their potential this year by getting to the Sweet 16. Texas is still hungry for more and remember this team made the Final Four when the Regional was in Texas as well. Texas marches on and we collect big in the process.
4 Unit Play.Take Memphis -4½ over Michigan State
Michigan State is a tournament team but I have no reason to believe Memphis will fall before the elite eight. The Tigers are looking to make their third straight trip to the elite eight and should have no problem knocking out the Spartans, who have too many holes to fill. Memphis has a much deeper bench and will not let Neitzel get off his shots. Both teams will reach the sixties in scoring but it will be the Tigers that pull away late to win it by double-digits. This is the first team Michigan State has played in the tournament that can actually score points at will.
4 Unit Play.Take Over 135½ in Michigan State vs. Memphis
This play coincides with the Memphis play and we like Memphis to win so the like play with that is then with the over. Maybe look at a one unit play with Memphis and the over in a parlay as well.
Ferringo
4-Unit Play. Take Texas (-2) over Stanford
1-Unit Play. Take Texas (-130) over Stanford
There are a lot of reasons why I like this play. First, the NCAA Tournament is all about guard play. And no one has better guards than the Longhorns. The Cardinal had all kinds of trouble with Marquette's excellent backcourt in the second round. Well, Texas's guards are more talented and UT can do similar things with its big men as far as inverting them on the perimeter. Second, guys like Connor Atchley and Damien James can really punish opponents with their 3-point ability. And if the Lopez Bros. are forced out onto the perimeter that will open up the basket for D.J. Augustin. Third, the Longhorns are a much, much more athletic team than Stanford and I think they will be able to hold their own on the boards. They should also be able to lock down on the perimeter and harass Stanford guards into turnovers.
Texas has a huge home-court edge here and should put forward an inspired effort in front Houston's pro-Longhorns crowd. Stanford is just 1-3 SU in its last four road games and 4-4 in its last eight in hostile territory. And make no mistake: this is a road game. Stanford lost to UCLA three times this year. The Longhorns beat the Bruins. In California. Texas has also taken it to bigger teams in the Big 12; teams like Kansas State (Beasley and Walker), Oklahoma (The Griffin's), Kansas (three NBA-caliber forwards), and Texas A&M. They aren't going to be awestruck or overwhelmed by the Lopez Twins. Further, Stanford is notorious for NCAA Tournament flameouts. The Pac-10 has been a bust in the Big Dance this year while the Big 12 has really stepped forward.
So, why isn't this my NCAA GOTY? Mainly because I can't shake that Wisconsin loss out of my head for the Longhorns. The Badgers were able to beat up UT on the inside. But that was also when A.J. Abrams was mired in a shooting slump. A&M and Kansas also have beaten the Longhorns mainly because of their size. But Stanford has lost to Oregon and Siena. Those are two small, quick teams that aren't nearly as good as the Horns. So I'm going big on Texas. Now, the way things have been going, Augustin and A.J. Abrams will combine to go 7-for-30 and the Longhorns will lose by 10. But I have to follow my instincts here and say that the better team (and coach) will advance.
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 137 Memphis vs. Michigan State
I think this is going to be a half-court game and I think it will be a tight one. Memphis can harass the Spartans on the perimeter, and if this one becomes a grinder I look for it to stay in the 60's.
1-Unit Play. FIRST HALF: Take Kansas (-6.5) over Villanova
The Wildcats are shaky. Shaky, shaky, shaky. They were getting absolutely mauled by both Clemson and Georgetown in the first half of two of their past three games. Sure, we could be set for a classic Bill Self dud here. But the talent disparity is simply so large here that I think the Jayhawks can lay a big number on 'Nova.
Gamblers World
TIP OF THE DAY
Villanova Wildcats vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Prediction: Kansas Jayhawks
Current Line: -11.5 Over/Under: 141.5 Reason: Villanova was supposed to contend next season. What are they doing in the Round of 16 against the Midwest's No. 1 seed this season? The fans at Ford Field get to see the talented Wildcats and the balanced Kansas Jayhawks when they take their seats on Friday. It's a rare battle of No. 1 vs. No. 12 and the point spread reflects that. Oddsmakers currently have the Jayhawks listed as 11½-point favorites versus the Wildcats, while the game's total is sitting at 141½. The Wildcats defeated Siena 84-72 as a 5.5-point favorite in the second round of the NCCA Tournament on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (145). Scottie Reynolds scored a game-high 25 points for Villanova and Corey Stokes added 20 points in the win. Mario Chalmers scored 17 points on Saturday to guide Kansas to a 75-56 win over the UNLV Runnin' Rebels in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. The Jayhawks managed to cover the big 13.5-point spread in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the posted total (136). Team records: Villanova: 22-12 SU, 14-17 ATS Kansas: 33-3 SU, 18-14-2 ATS Villanova most recently: When playing on Friday are 8-2 After a win are 6-4 Kansas most recently: When playing on Friday are 9-1 After playing UNLV are 1-1 After a win are 8-2 A few trends to consider: Villanova is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games Villanova is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Villanova's last 14 games Kansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games Kansas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas's last 6 games
Michael Cannon
15 Dime
DAVIDSON
Take the points with Davidson tonight against Wisconsin in the Midwest Regional.
I’ll admit I didn’t give Davidson any respect in their matchup with Georgetown, but I am a believer now and I’m taking them plus the points against the Badgers.
How can you not respect what Stephen Curry has done up to this point? He’s been arguably the best player in the entire tournament and if he’s feeling it again from the outside the Badgers will be powerless to stop him.
I also like what Davidson did in the non-conference portion of its schedule this season. Having played North Carolina, Duke and Ucla, each of whom were given a scare by the Wildcats, gave them the confidence that they could compete with the best teams in the nation and not be intimidated.
Now Wisconsin is not to be undermined, but they lack the dynamic scorer that Davidson has with Curry, and if push comes to shove late you have to like the Wildcats chances to stay within the number simply because they have that go-to player they can rely on in the clutch.
Take the points with Davidson as they stay within the number tonight.
10 Dime
MEMPHIS
Lay the points with Memphis tonight over Michigan State in the South Regional.
The Spartans play tough defense and you have to like coach Tom Izzo’s track record in the NCAA tournament, but I don’t think they can hang with the athletic Tigers tonight.
Memphis is on a mission to silence the critics who don’t give the Tigers credit for playing in a soft conference. They should be successful tonight against a Spartans team that had problems pressuring high-caliber backcourts.
The Tigers are talented at the guard spot, but they are also deep at that position. Their quickness should cause problems for Michigan State’s Drew Neitzel, who despite his hot shooting against Pitt has been erratic overall this year.
If Neitzel is forced to expend his energy running around trying to defend the Tigers’ backcourt it’s going to lead to tired legs which will hinder his shooting percentage.
Take Memphis as they grab the win and cover tonight.
Wunderdog
Stanford vs. Texas
Pick: Texas -2
This is technically a road game for both teams but it's being played in Houston. The Longhorns are 6-0 in NCAA Tournament games played in Texas the past five years. Even without that edge, we liked them in this matchup. The home-court helped North Carolina break out of an early tough-going yesterday and we think it can make the difference in this game too. We like the fact that Texas had a tough go of it vs. Miami. They held off a fierce Miami comeback from a 17-point defecit which shows heart and also prepares you well for future close games and tough situations. Texas has the decided offensive advantage, averaging 75.5 per game to Stanford's 71.2 (69.8 on the road) and the Longhorns are playing defense better than Stanford right now. Texas shows up for big games. They are 13-5 ATS vs. elite teams (those outscoring their opponents by 8+ ppg) in late-season play the past two seasons. Over that same span, they are 28-17 ATS off a win and 22-12 ATS off two straight wins. The Cardinal have the twin towers but Texas has the superstar guards. You may be tired of hearing it but it's true - the deeper you get in this tournament, the more important great guard play becomes. We like the "home" team in this one.
JB
Boston Celtics -7
JWhip
Kansas -12
Matty O'Shea
Memphis U -4.5
Rocky Atkinson NHL
NAS -120 vs CLB
Columbus is 7-21 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. Columbus is 3-10 this year when playing against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season. Nashville is 31-12-1 SU and 32-12 ATS overall vs Columbus since 1996. Nashville is 19-4 SU and ATS overall vs Columbus last 3 years. Predators are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite. Predators are 5-1 in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest. Predators are 6-2 in their last 8 Friday games. Predators are 8-3 in their last 11 vs. Central. Predators are 7-3 in their last 10 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Predators are 54-25 in their last 79 vs. a team with a losing record. Predators are 96-45 in their last 141 games as a favorite. Blue Jackets are 4-9 in their last 13 home games. Blue Jackets are 19-43 in their last 62 vs. a team with a losing record. Blue Jackets are 6-15 in their last 21 vs. Western Conference. Blue Jackets are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. Central. Blue Jackets are 2-5 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Blue Jackets are 30-80-6 in their last 116 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation. Blue Jackets are 1-4 in their last 5 games following a win. Blue Jackets are 2-9 in their last 11 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Predators are 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Columbus. Predators are 25-6 in the last 31 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Nashville tonight!