SPORTS ADVISORS
(13) Villanova (20-4, 13-7 ATS) at West Virginia (16-8, 9-12 ATS)
Villanova shoots for its seventh straight victory when it travels to West Virginia Coliseum in Morgantown to take on the Mountaineers in a Big East showdown.
Villanova is the hottest team in the Big East, winning six straight and going 8-0 ATS in its last eight following Tuesday’s 102-84 rout of Marquette as a five-point home chalk. Villanova has scored exactly 102 points in each of its last two games and is averaging 87.2 points per game on 51 percent shooting over its last five outings.
West Virginia has lost three of its last four (2-2 ATS), including Monday’s 70-59 setback at Pitt, coming up short as an 8½-point pup. The Mountaineers get the job done at home on defense, allowing just 56 ppg on 39.1 percent shooting in Morgantown. Bob Huggins’ squad is 10-2 in front of the home fans, but just 4-5 ATS.
Villanova won last year’s only meeting, between these schools, cruising 78-56 as a 1½-point home underdog. West Virginia is 3-1 ATS in the last four meetings and the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven in this short-lived rivalry.
The Wildcats are riding positive ATS streaks of 8-0 in Big East action, 5-2 on the road, 6-0 after a straight-up win and 7-0 ATS against teams with a winning record. The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five Friday games, but otherwise they’re on ATS slides of 4-10 as a favorite, 2-5 after a straight-up loss and 0-4 at home against teams with a winning road mark.
For Villanova, the over is 6-2 in its last eight overall and 9-3 in its last 12 Big East contests, but the Wildcats are on “under” streaks of 21-6-1 as a ‘dog, 13-4-1 as a road ‘dog, 8-2-1 on Fridays and 6-2 after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. West Virginia is riding “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-1 following a straight-up loss, 4-1 in Big East play and 7-3 after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA
Brad Diamond Sports
Play on: Pennsylvania over Brown
Last year the Brown Bears (6-14) were a physical, fairly consistent team, winning with the three ball as its credo. However, graduation has taken much from their scoring prowess as they are scoring at 63 points per game, down four points from last season. Penn (5-13) has been frustrated also losing much via graduation, especially speed. However, they do show in 32-point revenge after falling to Brown last March 75-43. Technically, we find the Bears 0-5 ATS after three or more consecutive road games and 2-9 ATS overall. If the Quakers defend effectively, they win this SU!
Dave Cokin
Loyola Chicago @ Valparaiso
Play: Valparaiso -5
Two badly struggling squads match up tonight in the Horizon League as Loyola visits Valparaiso. The Ramblers are really scuffling, losing and failing to cover each of their last five games. At least Valpo is hanging in, as they've covered their last three contests. Revenge for the home team, and they're in slightly better form, so the lean is to Valparaiso.
James Patrick Sports
Illinois Chicago vs. Butler
Our Friday selection is in Horizon League action as we like Butler Bulldogs to improve the Home Teams series record to 9-3-1 ATS and the series favorite record to 15-3-1 ATS. IUC is 0-5 at Hinkle Fieldhouse but like so many others before them have discovered it's a bitch of a place to get a "W"
Cajun Sports
Illinois-Chicago Flames vs. Butler Bulldogs -12.5
PLAY: 2* Butler Bulldogs -12.5
Hinkle Fieldhouse will be the site of tonights Horizon League clash on ESPNU between the host Butler Bulldogs and the visiting Illinois-Chicago Flames. The Flames are coming in off a home win over Detroit on Tuesday night after losing five straight and ten of twelve overall. Butler returns home off a three-game road swing that saw them lose the opener to Wisconsin-Green Bay 75 to 66, win at Detroit 66 to 61 and in the final game defeat Wright State 69 to 51 in a building that has been a tough place for the Bulldogs in recent years.
Illinois-Chicago is 11-13 straight up and 8-13 against the number this season. The Flames are 5-7 SU and 4-7 ATS on the road, 1-4 SU and 2-2 ATS their last five overall and 4-10 SU and 4-9 ATS averaging 63.9 points per game on 40.2 percent shooting from the field and allowing 66.2 points per game on 42.0 percent shooting. Over their last five games the Flames have seen their shooting percentage drop to 39 percent from the field.
Even though the Flames are only allowing 42 percent shooting from the field it may not be enough against this Butler team as they are 10-2 ATS versus teams with a shooting percentage defense of <=42% this season. The Bulldogs also excel against good ball handling teams with a record of 23-11 ATS versus teams committing <=14 turnovers per game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.
Butler is 21-2 straight up and 14-7 against the spread this season. The Bulldogs are 11-0 SU at home with an ATS record of 5-4 ATS averaging 68.3 points per game on 43.5 percent from the field and allowing only 52.5 points per game on 37.1 percent shooting. In conference play Butler is 12-1 SU and 8-5 ATS averaging 66.5 points per game on 43.5 percent from the field and allowing 56.2 points per game on 35.5 percent shooting. Over their last five games the Bulldogs have held opponents to 33.5 percent from the field.
The Flames are 2-12 ATS versus teams allowing =37% of their three-point attempts after 15+ games since 1997 and 7-19 ATS in road games versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots per game on the season since 1997. Illinois-Chicago is 5-14 ATS after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons and 1-7 ATS revenging a loss this season.
Butler is 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points the last 3 seasons, 34-17 ATS after allowing 60 points or less, 28-16 ATS after a win by 10 points or more the last 3 seasons, 27-13 ATS after a combined score of 125 points or less and 11-4 ATS after playing a game as favorite this season. Butler coming off a straight up win in their last game and now installed as a home favorite over Illinois-Chicago are a perfect 6-0 ATS.
With strong fundamental, situational and technical support as well as recent history on the side of the host we will back the Butler Bulldogs as they make it 7-0 ATS against the Flames.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (2*) Butler Bulldogs 74 Illinois-Chicago Flames 53
Chris Jordan
Illinois-Chicago at BUTLER -12'
The Bulldogs were in Chicago in the first meeting, and Illinois-Chicago led by 11 at halftime and by 13 early in the second half as Butler missed 21 of its first 24 three-point attempts. Butler came back and won by seven points, and I can assure there won't be as many misfirings or as many mistakes as there were in that first clash.
Just look inside the betting numbers in this one, and you'll see why it's safe to bank the home team here. The Flames are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 conference games, and are also in ATS slumps of 1-5 on the road, 1-6 as an underdog and 2-8 off a spread victory.
On the other hand, Butler is on ATS runs of 18-8 overall, 11-5 in conference play and 10-4 when playing off a straight-up win.
Lay the home chalk.
Sports Gambling Hotline
Illinois-Chicago at BUTLER -12'
We are on a 6-2-2 comp play run the last 10 days!
Going tonight look for Butler to roll up the big number on conference rival Illinois-Chicago. The Bulldogs are looking to beef up their Big Dance credentials, and a big double-digit win is the order of the day for the Bulldogs who have yet to lose at home this season.
Butler handled the Flames 59-52 back on January 17th, at Illinois-Chicago, as the 'Dogs have now won 5 in a row in this series, and they have gone 4-0-1 against the spread in those 5 meetings covering anywhere from 3 to 14 1/2-points along the way.
The Flames just snapped a 5-game losing streak with a win over Detroit their last time out, but are just 3-10 against the spread overall their last 13 times on court.
With the favorite in this series on a 14-3-1 spread run, and the host a profitable 8-3-1 against the spread the last 12 times these teams have met, we have to lay the points with the Bulldogs this Friday night.
Play on Butler.
5♦ BUTLER
Bobby Maxwell
Loyola-Chicago at VALPARAISO -4
FREE winners 12 of the last 19 days and we'll get you another one tonight in the Horizon League as we play Valpo at home over Loyola-Chicago.
Loyola-Chicago has really been in a funk lately and we're going to take advantage of it and play Valparaiso tonight at home and lay the chalk.
The Ramblers have lost five straight both SU and ATS and honestly they aren't even coming close to winning or covering. They lost to Wright State 64-52 on Tuesday as a 3 1/2-point 'dog and they are only scoring 59.4 points per game and shooting just 35.2 percent from the floor over their last five.
On the defensive side, Loyola is giving up 73.2 points per game over the last five games and they are just 5-7 ATS on the road this season.
Valpo hasn't been very good lately either, losing seven of their last eight but they have covered the spread in their last three and four of their last five. They have been in each of their last four losses, losing by 10 points or less in each of the four. They lost by eight at Butler as 18 1/2-point 'dogs, by 10 at Wright State as 12-point pups and by one at Detroit as three-point 'dogs.
The Crusaders are 4-1 ATS in their last five Horizon League games and we see them winning and covering this one tonight. Play Valpo.
3♦ VALPARAISO
Big Al Mcmordie
Villanova vs. West Virginia
Play: West Virginia -4
At 9 pm, our complimentary selection is on the West Virginia Mountaineers minus the points over Villanova. Since 2006, West Virginia is a solid 46-6 straight-up and 25-14 ATS (with 13 non-lined games). And if the Mountaineers are priced from -3.5 to -13.5 points at home, then WVU is 18-5 ATS. West Virginia is 5-1 ATS its last six at home vs. Villanova, and I look for WVU to improve on these numbers today.
Bob Harvey
Illinois Chicago vs. Butler
Play: Under 126½
The Butler Bulldogs (21-2) will be out for a sweep of the UIC Flames (11-13) tonight when the teams collide at Hinkle Fieldhouse. This season Butler is 11-0 at home SU, but just 5-4 ATS at home.
Coaches have come and gone at Butler, but still the Bulldogs remain of the top basketball programs in America. They’ve posted at least 20 wins 11 times in 13 seasons. That’s consistency.
Defense is the bread and butter for this Butler team. Nationally they’re ranked third in scoring defense (56.3) and fourth in field-goal percentage defense limiting opponents to just 37% shooting.
Illinois Chicago has struggled against the number going just 8-13. They’re also 3-7 ATS vs. good defensive teams, a department in which Butler certainly qualifies.
The last five series meetings, including there first encounter have all played to the UNDER and by plenty.
Butler beat UIC 59-52 on January 17, covering as a -3 point favorite. However these team never came close to the total of 128. In that game the Bulldogs held the Flames to just 33% shooting.
Consider these trends. Butler has won and covered the last three meetings at home and is 5-1 ATS and SU over the past three years.
UIC is just 11-26 all-time against Butler and has lost eight of the last nine meetings.
Butler has burned me in the past when I've layed double-digit wood, so I’m shying away from the side even though the trends support a play. I’m going with the UNDER and looking for Butler to provide one of their stellar defensive efforts.
Matt Fargo
Princeton vs. Yale
Play: Princeton +2
Yale is favored here because it is at home and it has to be favored. Arguably, the wrong team is laying the number but that is fine and we will take the added value with Princeton who is making a case for coming back to prominence in the Ivy League. The Tigers owned this conference for years but a couple bad years in a row led to a changing of the guard. Now, even though it was somewhat unexpected, they are once again rising to the top. They are 4-0 in the Ivy League which is part of a seven-game winning streak that goes all the way back to the start of January. Included in this run was a huge 20-point victory over Cornell, the preseason conference favorite, last Friday. Even more impressive was that there was no letdown as Princeton came back on Saturday and thumped Columbia so there was no letdown. That makes us even more confident here that the Tigers are focused and looking past no one. This is even more important facing a team that it has been swept by in each of the last four seasons. Yale is 1-3 over its last four games and while the string has been all games on the road, this is not a team to be backing as it lacks a lot of confidence, especially on the offensive end of the floor. The Bulldogs were held to 42, 36 and 54 points in those three losses and now they face the best defensive team in the league. As far as offensive efficiency, Yale is 6th in the eight-team Ivy with a 90.3 efficiency rating which is also 306th in the nation. The Bulldogs are turning the ball over on 24.3 percent of their possessions which is 317th in the country. That has led to an assist/turnover ratio of 0.82 and that drops to a putrid 0.66 ratio over their last five games. Over this five game stretch, the Bulldogs are -0.19 in ratio margin while Princeton is +0.67 in margin over that same span. The Yale number improves at home to +0.11 but the Tigers are still solid on the road with a ratio margin of +0.25. Overall, the Tigers have edges in every category that I look at which are efficiency ratings, power rating, offensive and defensive shooting, both regular and long-range, rebounding margin, free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio. One can argue the soft schedule of the Tigers has led to this however the Bulldogs have played a schedule ranked 283rd in the nation so they are not far behind. Play against home teams with a winning percentage of between 40 and 49 percent on the season where the line is +3 to -3 and coming off a road loss by three points or less. This situation is 29-6 ATS (82.9 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +4.7 ppg. Princeton is 6-0 ATS this season after allowing 55 points or fewer and it is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games following a win dating back to last season. Yale meanwhile is no a horrendous run of 3-16 ATS when playing teams that average six or fewer steals per game so playing a non-pressuring defense will not help much here. The public is not taking this Princeton run very serious as it is all over the Bulldogs here but that will be a mistake when Princeton extends its run to eight consecutive wins and gets its revenge following four straight losses to Yale. 3* Princeton Tigers
Johnny Guild
Brown Bears -1
Butler Bulldogs -13
Jim Feist
PRINCETON / YALE
Take Under
Princeton's defense is dynamite, tops in the Ivy League allowing 50 points per game. The last two games they've allowed 41 and 35 points! They take on a struggling Yale team that is last in scoring offense in the Ivy League, with 57.7 ppg. Yale is on a 1-3 SU/ATS run, scoring 42, 36 and 54 points in the losses. Princeton is unbeaten in the conference and will bring their 'A' game defensively to try and stay that way. Don't look for much offense, play Princeton/Yale under the total.
Jimmy The Moose
Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche
Prediction: Montreal Canadiens
The Avs are just what the doctor ordered tonight for Montreal to snap their 5 game losing streak. Montreal has allowed 21 goals in their last 4 games and have dropped 8 of their last 10 overall. Avs have not faired any better losing 7 of their last 9 games. Something's gotta give here tonight. Play on Montreal -.
Brian Hansen
Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche
Prediction: Colorado Avalanche
Montreal is really struggling right now and I expect that trend to continue this evening! Colorado is coming off a 3-2 loss to Minnesota but I expect it to turn things around this evening in front of the hometown crowd. Colorado is 5-3 its last 8 after 3 or more consecutive losses; play on the AVALANCHE!