Wunderdog
Boston at New Jersey
Pick: UNDER 5.5 -135
The Bruins have carved themselves out a special season, and on the road have lost just five times this season. Credit has to go to tremendous goaltending and a focused defense as they have allowed just 45 goals in their last 25 road games, or an amazing 1.8 per game. The Devils have put together a pretty good season themselves, especially lately where they have won 11 of their last 13. They have done it the same way - keeping the puck out of the net as in six of those 13 games, the opponent scored one time or less. That Bruins' road defense has led to 18 of their last 24 on the road going UNDER, and this series has seen a 5-2-1 mark to the UNDER in the last eight played in New Jersey. I like the UNDER in this one.
Nite Owl Sports
Saint Peter Peacocks @ Rider
Pick: Saint Peter Peacocks +9.5
This St Peter's team is an astute sports capper's dream when playing on the road as a "big dog," as they are today at Rider. They sneak up on heavily favored, unfocused opponents in these games, because of their crappy 4-10 conference record, but in "our world" of point spreads, line value and "covers," they are like an ATM machine when playing in this preferred role, where they are 6-1 ATS in their 7 conf road games TY (all as dogs of +6>), not incl their early December loss at Fairfield, when they were playing only their sixth game of the season and had not yet "gelled." And if we limit their record as conf road dogs to those games in a point spread range of 6-12 points, the ATS range for this game, Peacocks have a 4-0 ATS record, with an average MOL (margin of loss) of just two points! The only negative trend stat that we see for St Peter’s in this game is that they are coming off a SU win in their last game (a win at Canisius as 6 point dogs), which puts them in a post-win mode, where they are just 1-2-1 ATS TY (compared to 9-3 ATS off a SU loss).
Contrast to Rider, who already beat Peacocks TY (by 11 on a “neutral” court at the Pru Center in Newark, NJ), is off a couple of wins, including a major upset of conf leader Siena, and cannot possibly be very motivated for this game. But looking at that earlier game between these two, we notice that Rider was up by 22 at HT, and then coasted the rest of the way. That, plus the above mentioned fact that Peacocks are off a win rather than a loss, limits this pick to two units. But Rider is just 2-3 ATS TY as a conf HF, with an average MOV of just two points in those five games, which won't get it done against this huge spread. Moreover, the road team is 6-2-2 ATS in the last 10 of this series, and St Peter's is 2-1-1 ATS in its last 4 visits to Trenton to play Rider, with an average MOL of just two points in those five games.
So take the generous points here, and get ready to make a stop at the ATM for a DEPOSIT next time, not a w/d.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Villanova +4.5
The Wildcats are rolling right now with 6 straight wins and I can't see the Mountaineers standing in the way of number 7. Nova has covered the spread in 8 straight games, blowing out Pitt, Syracuse , and Marquette during this stretch by double digits and it is still getting no respect from the books. While I expect the Mountaineers to hang around for a while, I like Nova to pick up another win on the road here and that is why I have to take these 4.5 big points. WVU is just 2-9 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game this season while Nova is 7-0 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season. Take the points.
Randall the Handle
COLORADO –1.04 over Montreal
The Av’s are definitely a team struggling to get points these days but a visit from the Canadiens is precisely what the doctor ordered, as the Habs credibility is dropping quicker than Alex Rodriguez’s. Colorado is coming off a loss in Minnesota but they really played a strong game and absolutely deserved a better fate. This is a game the players have openly stated that they’re really looking forward to, as they rarely get a visit from Montreal and for some, it’s the first chance they’ll have of playing against Montreal. The Pepsi Center isn’t buzzing much these days but tonight there will be a playoff atmosphere, as it’s Montreal’s third visit here in the last eight years. But more than that is the current condition these Habs are in. This is a fragile team that’s playing like one. They’re not scoring, they’re not preventing goals, the goaltending has been brutal and they’re not just losing, some pretty average teams are whacking them. Over its last three games the Habs have been outscored 18-6 by Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton. They have two wins over its last 11 and one of those wins was not justified, as the Kings outplayed them badly but a horrible penalty call with a minute left sent the game to OT and ultimately gave Montreal a win they did not deserve. Montreal has scored two goals or less in eight of those 11 games while allowing four goals or more seven times over that same span. This team is a grease fire right now and they’re under extreme pressure to perform well. The Av’s are the next team to pounce on them and the fact that the Canadiens are favored, albeit a small one is pretty ridiculous. Play: Colorado –1.04 (Risking 3.12 units to win 3).
COLORADO/Montreal under 6 –1.10
When a team is struggling as badly as the Habs are the first thing every player and coach will insist is that the team play responsibly on the defensive end. These are two teams that are both struggling and you can expect the intensity level to be high for this game. These two don’t score many to begin with and it’s going to take seven goals to beat us here. Frankly, I was a bit shocked when I saw a “6” posted for this one, as all of the Av’s posted totals this season have been 5½ with the exception of six games. Two of those six were against the Leafs. Anyway, this game should be a 5½ too. Play: Colorado/Montreal under 6 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
DALLAS -½ +1.05 over Vancouver (REG)
The Canucks pulled one out in Phoenix last night by a score of 4-3 for its fourth straight win and it’s safe to say that the Canucks have snapped out of its funk. However, this is an extremely tough spot for them, as they’ll be playing its third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs, all in the road. It’s also the third different time zone in those four games, making this assignment about as difficult as it gets. Furthermore, the Stars are among the hottest teams in the league with seven wins in nine games and as far as situations go, this is among the best I’ve seen all year that heavily favors the home side. Play: Dallas -½ +1.05 (Risking 3 units).
Dwayne Bryant
W.Virginia -4 vs Villanova
Villanova visits West Virginia at 9 pm ET in a Big East clash that will be televised on ESPN. Is there a hotter team in college basketball right now than Villanova? The Wildcats have won six straight and have covered eight straight. 'Nova has averaged 99.3 points per game over their last three games. On the other side, West Virginia is struggling. The Mountaineers have lost three of their last four games and four of their last six.
Given Villanova's SU & ATS streaks, 'Nova's gaudy recent offensive numbers, and West Virginia's recent struggles, it looks pretty easy to take Villanova +4. But you know what they say -- "If something looks too good to be true, it probably is."
Motivation is clearly on West Virginia's side tonight. They need this game a lot more than 'Nova. Having the home crowd and a national TV audience watching should only add to WVU's fire tonight. This game reminds me a lot of last night's Notre Dame-Louisville Big East matchup, which the Irish won in huge fashion. Louisville was hot and Notre Dame was struggling mightily, but that home cooking on national TV in a must-win game sparked the Irish. I see the same thing happening tonight in Morgantown.
Look for West Virginia's defense (56 ppg allowed on 39.1% shooting at home) to stop 'Nova's offensive spree and give the Mountaineers a much-needed win. The Mountaineers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite of 6.5 or less. Make it 21-7 ATS after tonight. Villanova may also come out a bit flat tonight after a big win against Marquette in their last outing. Lay the points with West Virginia.
Scott Rickenbach
Vancouver Canucks @ Dallas Stars
PICK: Over
Please note that the write-ups with my star-rated and/or guaranteed picks are more in-depth than the analysis provided with my Free Picks. Thanks for joining me today and good luck! Especially in the NHL, because it doesn’t get as much attention, there is a tendency for the odds makers and the bettors to be slow to catch up to an emerging trend. In this particular case, we see a perfect example of that. In most games where a higher-scoring contest is expected, you’ll see NHL totals posted at a 6. However, for this Friday match-up with the Stars hosting the Canucks, we’re seeing a total of only a 5.5 posted on this game! Vancouver is known to be the type of club that is involved in lower-scoring games. However, that has simply not been the case since the calendar hit 2009. Starting with their January 2nd 4-3 overtime loss at Atlanta, 12 of the Canucks last 15 games have totaled at least six goals! Note that with last night’s 4 to 3 win at Phoenix, six straight Vancouver games have tallied at least seven goals.
As we noted in the write-up for our play on the Canucks last night: The Canucks are finally putting things together as they were expected to. They’ve made a line change that has paid big dividends. Teaming Mats Sundin, Pavol Demitra, and Ryan Kesler on the same line has paid off and a positive momentum effect on the whole club has spun off from this change. The Canucks have won three straight and their offense has suddenly become much more explosive. We look for more from this explosive offense tonight and we also absolutely expect Dallas to bounce back from a shutout home loss in their last game – a 1-0 loss versus Phoenix on Wednesday. Note that, prior to that loss, the Stars had scored 50 goals in their last 12 games. As you can see, there should be plenty of offense in Big D tonight. Consider a small play on OVER the total in Dallas on Friday.
DESTROYTHEBOOK SPORTS
2/13/09- Friday
Strong Opinion
Columbia -8