John Ryan
Marist vs. Canisius
Play:Marist +4.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Marist as they travel to face Canisius slated to start at 7:30 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 39-20 ATS mark for 66% winners since 1997. Play on a dog that is a poor free throw shooting team hitting 61-65% and is facing a terrible free throw shooting team hitting <=61% and in a game involving two average rebounding teams posting +/-3 reb/game differentials. AiS shows a 90% probability that Marist will get between 40 and 44 rebounds. Note that Marist is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when they grab 40 to 44 rebounds in a game over the last 2 seasons. Canisius is 0-12 ATS (-13.2 Units) as a home favorite or pick over the last 3 seasons. Take Marist.
Larry Ness
Siena @ Niagara
PICK: Niagara
There can be little argument that Siena is "the class of the MAAC." All five starters returned from a team which won 23 games last year, including a first-round NCAA 'spanking' of Vandy (83-62). Siena is 22-6 overall and leads the MAAC at 15-1. A quick check of the RPI rankings reveals the Saints come in at 24. Hasbrouck (15.0), PG Moore (8.1-6.0 APG) and the 6-6 Ubiles (14.6-5.4) form an excellent backcourt, with small forward Franklin (13.6-7.2) being greatly helped out this year by blossoming 6-9 sophomore Rossiter (9.4-7.4). Missing from LY's mix is sixth-man Fisher (8.0) but Jackson (8.6) has filled that role nicely this year. Siena's early losses came to Tenn, Wichita St and Okla St in the Old Spice tourney in November. The Saints also lost by 13 points at Pitt and after falling behind 30-10 at Lawrence on Jan 6 to Kansas, lost just 91-84 to the Jayhawks. Since that loss, Siena's lone loss (team has won 12 of 13) came 90-88 at Rider. Siena hasn't played since beating Northern Iowa 81-75 (led 40-19 at the half) last Saturday in a Bracket Buster game but the pointspread (Saints are two-point dogs) tells us that Siena is in for a tough game tonight. Niagara was very impressive in beating Illinois St 70-56 last Friday night in its Bracket Buster game, the Purple Eagles' EIGHTH win in their last nine games (7-2 ATS), since losing 82-65 at Siena. By the way, Niagara's lone loss in that stretch (like Siena) is to Rider (90-87). Lewis (16.5-4.6), who was the MAAC's tourney MVP back in 2007 when Niagara beat Siena for the title, is the team's leading scorer this year. He's been joined by two Big East transfers this year, Villanova's swingman Benn (13.9-9.0-3.0) and former U Conn guard Garrison (10.2). Nelson (7.6-4.6-5.3) returns at PG, as Niagara typically goes with a four-guard lineup (calling Benn a guard). That leaves some pressure on the 6-10 Egemonye (12.3-6.9) and he's played well, helped out by the 6-6 Williamson (8,1-2.8) at times. Siena's locked in the No. 1 seed and the conference tourney will be played in Siena's hometown of Albany (not home arena). As for Niagara, after losing twice to the Saints last year (allowed 94 points each time) and by a score of 82-65 this year, tonight's home game holds great significance. For that reason, I'm taking a shot with the Purple Eagles, who have the talent to match up with the Saints.
Evan Altemus
Selection: INDIANA +12
Boston is in a horrible spot here from a situational aspect. They are coming off of a long west coast road trip, one in which they had all three of their best players get banged up. Kevin Garnett is still out until late March, but both Ray Allen and Paul Pierce are expected to play. The Celtics road weary legs showed in their last game, an outright loss at the Clippers. Meanwhile, Indiana has played well despite being without Mike Dunleavy and Danny Granger. The Pacers are 4-2 both straight up and against the spread since the All-Star break. They took Boston to overtime the last time these two teams met, and the Pacers have the offense to stay in this game. Boston will also more than likely rest their players in the 4th quarter if they get a large lead, meaning that Indiana would have a good chance for a back door cover. However, the Pacers will take advantage of Boston's tired legs and keep the game close.
Jeff Benton
I went against Cleveland last night when it was in Houston and scored an easy 5 Dime winner with the Rockets, who snapped the Cavs’ five-game SU and ATS winning streak. But LeBron and Co. have lost consecutive games just once all season, and that was earlier this month when they followed up their first home loss of the season (101-91 to the Lakers) with a one-point, highly controversial loss in Indiana two days later.
Not only have the Cavs lost two in a row only once, but at 37-19 ATS, they remain the best pointspread team in the NBA, having had just a pair of three-game ATS slides and one two-game ATS slump. Otherwise, Cleveland hasn’t gone consecutive games without cashing. Furthermore, the Cavs have been as good as any team in the league on back-to-back situations (9-3 ATS) and they're 10-1 SU following a loss this year. And while they struggle to cover spreads in Thursday night marquee games (now 3-10 ATS in the last 13 TNT showcase games), they’re a rock-solid 9-1 ATS in their last 10 contests on Fridays.
As for the Spurs, you gotta tip your cap for the way they’ve played this week without both Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, scoring impressive home wins over two playoff-caliber opponents in Dallas (93-76) and Portland (99-84) thanks to the stellar play of point guard Tony Parker. And they come into this game having won four in a row and six of eight, while going 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10. However, to think San Antonio is going to continue to roll without two of its three best players – Duncan is questionable tonight; Ginobili is out a few more weeks – is crazy. And to ask them to beat a third consecutive top-notch opponent (one that you know is going to play inspired tonight after last night’s embarrassment in Houston), well, that’s a tall order.
The road team has won the last four meetings in this rivalry, including Cleveland’s 90-88 victory in San Antonio last year as a 7½-point road underdog. And while the Spurs got revenge the following month in a 112-105 road win in Cleveland, they did so courtesy of monster contributions from Ginobili (46 points, five rebounds, eight assists) and Duncan (23 points, 13 boards). With no Ginobili and – at best – a limited, limping Duncan, I envision a monster game from LeBron and yet another big bounce-back victory for Cleveland.
6♦ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Matt Rivers
For Friday take the Clippers.
The Sacramento Kings are an absolute joke right now and even at Arco should lose this game.
Obviously the 15-43 Clippers are not a team that you can fully trust anywhere no less the road but with Baron Davis and Zach Randolph back healthy along with possibly having Marcus Camby, Eric Gordon and Al Thornton this Los Angeles team is fairly talented and a ton better than their pathetic record indicates.
I have said all along that a healthy Clipper team this season would have been alright but that really didn't happen as the team was decimated with injuries.
Sacramento is horrific right now. They are not only awful but just made a bunch of trades including their second and third best players in John Salmons and Brad Miller so there is absolutely no chemistry at all. Kevin Martin can certainly fill it up with the best of them but that really is about all this team right now has.
The Clips just shocked the high flying Celtics on Wednesday as the 10 point home dog and will start to win some games in this second half of the season as the pieces start coming back.
Ride Los Angeles' weaker team today and for the next little bit as there will be some value.
Drew Gordon
Oklahoma City +9 at DALLAS
It should be no secret that the Thunder present a tremendous amount of value, going 34-22 ATS on the season, including 16-10 ATS on the road! The guys in Vegas seem content with continually underestimating this team, and I'm happy to take advantage. Here's another example, as Durant and company can and will keep this tough road game within the number tonight in Dallas.
Speaking of Kevin Durant, if he were in a larger market, he'd get the credit he deserves, but in case you haven't noticed, he's been the league's deadliest scorer since the Break. I fully expect he'll once again impress against a good, but not great Mavericks defense tonight. Along with Durant, Green can man-handle Dirk down-low, and while he's been slow to get back to form, Krstic is a better player than Dampier at this point.
On the flip side, people who follow Dallas know that Dirk is struggling mightily, and if he doesn't contribute on the offensive end, then the Mavs will have a lot of trouble covering a near double-digit spread. True, Howard is playing well, but rest-assured he'll have his hands full with Durant tonight, and will be hard-pressed to exert himself on the offensive end after chasing around Durant all night.
Finally, don't misunderstand me, the Mavericks will almost certainly win this contest, but covering the bloated number is another story entirely. Dallas is just 11-17 ATS at home this season, and while they did beat up on Milwaukee in their last home game, the Thunder match up better, especially considering the way Durant is playing. Play on the road dog!
Take Oklahoma City plus the points over Dallas in this NBA match up.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Chris Jordan
L.A. Lakers -2' at DENVER
Seems like everyone is falling prey to the allure of this game, and I don’t like when there are far too many people on one side of a game. So, I’ll make this a comp selection, and lay the road chalk with the Lakers.
I know they just put up 132 points in Phoenix last night, and the though of going into the rarified air of Denver makes no sense on the second of back-to-back nights, but I’m going to say the Lakers have plenty left in the tank after last night’s clash with Shaq and company.
Denver is dinged up quite a bit, as Carmelo Anthony has a bruised knee and Nene missed his second straight game, also due to a bruised right knee, and is expected to remain out of action for one more week.
Los Angeles is averaging 112.4 points in its last five games against the Nuggets, who been held under 100 four times in those games.
Taking a look at some numbers, the Lakers are on ATS runs of 7-1 when visiting teams with a winning home record, 6-1 when laying the chalk on a road, 8-2 on the highway, 8-3 as the installed chalk and 10-4 overall. On the flipside, the Nuggets are on ATS slides of 2-6 as an underdog, 1-5 as the home pup, 2-6 on Friday nights and 0-4 overall.
Los Angeles has covered four of its last five meetings in the Mile High City, while the favorite has gotten it done five of the last seven battles.
1♦ L.A. LAKERS
Johnny Guild
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
Los Angeles Lakers have won nine straight versus the Denver Nuggets, including twice this season. Take the surging Lakers to overwhelm the struggling Nuggets on their home court and win their seventh straight game overall. Denver has dropped three of its last four games, going 0-4 ATS and is 1-8 ATS in the last nine clashes against LA Lakers, 1-4 both straight-up and against the spread in the last five battles versus Los Angeles at the Pepsi Center.
Los Angeles Lakers -2.5
NCAAB
Siena Saints +2.5
Tom Stryker
ORLANDO (-) over Detroit
Honestly, it doesnt matter how banged up and out of sync Detroit is right now. Orlando will have no mercy at all when the Pistons come to town.
According to my NBA database, the Magic are a dismal 6-26 SU and 12-18-2 ATS in their last 32 meetings in this series. Detroit has dismissed Orlando in the first round of the 2007 playoffs and, after five games, in the Eastern Conference semifinals last season. If that wasnt bad enough, the Pistons slipped past the Magic in the first meeting this year at home by the final of 88-82. To say that Orlando wants revenge would be an understatement!
Payback has been a profitable venture for the Magic. In its last 39 games in a revenge mode, Orlando is a tremendous 30-9 SU and 32-7 ATS including a nearly perfect 15-1 ATS in this set matched up against a foe that checks in off a straight up loss. Equally impressive, when running against an opponent that carries a won/loss percentage less than .500, Superman and Company are a powerful 48-11 SU and 38-19-2 ATS including a remarkable 37-8 SU and 32-12-1 ATS in non-division play.
The Magic are clicking on all cylinders right now and theyre still chasing Cleveland for the best record in the Eastern Conference. Theres no way Orlando will take its foot off the gas tonight. Lay the lumber. Take Orlando.
Scott Rickenbach
Illinois-Chicago Flames (-) @ Loyola Chicago
This play narrowly missed my service play list today. Even though the Flames can not improve their position in terms of hosting a first round game in the Horizon League tournament, that does not mean they will play without emotion here. This is a big rivalry game for these two teams from Chicago. Illinois-Chicago knows that they can prevent Loyola Chicago from even having a shot at hosting a first-round tournament game and that is plenty of motivation for the Flames.
The Flames and Ramblers simply don't get along. They can't stand each other and it means that the intensity is up when these teams meet. While the Ramblers would love nothing more than to get the big home win here they have a pair of big problems. One is turnovers as that continues to plague Loyola Chicago and it plagued them the last time these teams met. The other concern for the Ramblers is that they simply have no answer for the Flames big man, VanderMeer. This means domination in the paint and Illinois-Chicago does come into this game playing their best basketball of the season. Consider a small play on the Flames minus the short number in this one on Friday night.
Randall the Handle
Los Angeles +3.10 over DETROIT
The Red Wings are the cream of the crop once again and it says here that barring significant injuries, the Sharkies have no shot of beating them in the playoffs but that’s a thought for another time. What we have here is a Red Wing team that’s on cruise control as the final month of the season approaches. They’re 10 points ahead of third place Calgary and five points behind first place San Jose. Chances are great that when the season ends the Red Wings will be exactly where they are right now. The point is that there are games left for Detroit that really don’t mean a lot and after flexing their muscles against the Sharkies, again, this game has a lot less significance. The Kings are in playoff mode right now and need every single point. That’s not to say they’re going to win here but they’re talented enough and hungry enough to pull off the upset. L.A is coming off a strong performance in Philly in a game they lost 2-0 (an empty netter) but out-shot Philly 34-20. These Kings have been playing a lot better on the road and with Chris Osgood in net for the Wings the Kings have a shot to put in a few. Price and situation makes the Kings a decent wager. Play: Los Angeles +3.10 (Risking 2 units).
PHILADELPHIA -½ -1.03 over Montreal
The Habs have won two in a row and appear to have snapped out of the despair they were in and if you believe that you have another thing coming. Yeah, they beat the Canucks 3-0 but they were completely dominated again and had no right winning that game. The Canucks out-shot the Habs 34-17. In reality, the Canadiens have had one good game in about a month and that came against Ottawa last Saturday afternoon. This team is still in a heap of trouble and there’s just no way they can compete with the Flyers. Sure, they can win, as goaltenders get hot and even when teams are dominated they sometimes win. So, the score or outcome I cannot predict. What I’m suggesting is that the Habs will get badly outplayed again (why wouldn’t they, they always do) and justice will be served. Philly easy. Play: Philadelphia -½ -1.03 (Risking 3.09 units to win 3).
Dave Price
1 Unit on Boston Celtics -12
Boston returns home, where it is 24-4 this season, following a 6-game road trip and a loss to the lowly Clippers to conclude it. Expect the Celtics to really run up the score in this one tonight. The Pacers are just 7-24 on the road this season and lost 96-114 when they visited Boston earlier this season. The major key here is that the Celtics won't miss KG nearly as much as the Pacers will miss Danny Granger in this game. Plays on home favorites; a very good team (>=+7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after a loss by 6 points or less are 27-4 ATS the last 5 seasons. Bet Boston.
Wunderdog
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver
Pick: Los Angeles Lakers -2
The Lakers continue to roll and are hungry to have the home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, so every game matters. They have taken off again and are 13-1 in their last 14 games, including winning in both Boston and Cleveland. The Nuggets appear inconsistent and out of sync right now. They went all of last season without scoring below 80 points in a game, and have now done it twice in the last eight games, with an 82-point performance thrown in there as well. They have dropped three of their last four, and needed a one-point escape at home over Atlanta to keep that from being four out of four. They are facing the wrong team at the wrong time as their "A" game might not be enough, but lately their "A" game is nowhere to be found. The Lakers take charge here.
Jack Jones
Chicago Bulls -5 over Washington Wizards
The Bulls may have lost two of three with their new lineup, but the team has gone 10-3 ATS over their last 13 games. Chicago was up on New Jersey Wednesday night before running out of energy due to the back-to-back situation. Washington hasn't really been doing anything right lately and they are allowing their opponents to shoot the ball at way too high of a rate. Witht he Bulls shooting 48% over their last five games I am having trouble picturing Washington keeping pace.
Iona -2.5 over St. Peter's
St. Peter's isn't shooting the ball at a very high rate and they are turning the ball over way too often. Iona does a good job of forcing turnovers and they get to the foul line. The Gaels lost by three on their home floor to the Peacocks a month ago, and I think they will want to return the favor here tonight. Last year Iona came into town and won by eight, and I'm seeing a similar result tonight.