Nick Parsons
St. Louis Blues at Tampa Bay Lightning
Prediction: Tampa Bay Lightning
Good value here on the home team as I expect the Lightning to bounce back from their last game. In fact this is a good spot for us to back Tampa tonight as it is a decent 7-5 its last 12 when playing with two days of rest! St. Louis on the other hand is a dismal 6-10 its last 16 in non-conference game; value play on TAMPA!
LT Profits
Elon +6
The Elon Phoenix went on the road and took the Wofford Terriers to overtime before losing by three points in January, and we look for a similarly close battle here.
Remember that this game is at a neutral location with the Southern Conference Tournament being played in Chattanooga, so we see no reason why Wofford should have an easier time with Elon here than they did at home.
After all, according to the Pomeroy Ratings, Wofford is one of the least efficient teams in the country on the defensive end, allowing 1.105 points per possession to rank 313 out of 344 teams in that critical statistic. We feel that fact alone makes the Terriers a poor risk when laying this many points.
Now by no means are the Phoenix powerhouses, but they were competitive for the most past inside the conference. That regular season meeting with the Terriers was not an anomaly, as Elon was 6-3 against the spread as a road underdog vs. Southern Conference opponents, and the fact that this is not a true road game should only improve those chances.
In fact, Elon was 9-4 ATS as a conference dog regardless of the venue, and we look for that to continue tonight.
Pick: Elon +6
Nelly
Milwaukee + over Chicago
The road team has covered in seven of the past ten games in this series between nearby rivals and both teams are fighting for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, with the Bucks currently holding a very slight edge. Chicago has won four straight games including impressive victories over Houston, Orlando, and Denver but the Bulls have turned in plenty of poor performances at home this season as one of the more disappointing teams in the league. The Bulls are 1-6 ATS in the last seven games as a favorite of five or more points. Milwaukee has been a strong road team as the change in philosophy with a more defensive oriented approach has led to far more competitive games. The Bucks are just 2-6 S/U in the past eight games but they have played an extremely tough recent schedule. The last time these teams met Chicago won at the Bradley Center by nine points but it was a game where the Bulls made 34 of 37 free throws as Milwaukee committed a great deal of turnovers. The Bucks dominated the rebounding in that match-up and a better shooting night would lead Milwaukee to a win tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Houston Rockets -6.5
The Houston Rockets are back at home where they have been doing all kinds of damage this season. They are 25-6 in home games and face a Suns team that is just 15-16 SU and 11-19 ATS on the road. The Suns have now lost 5 of their last 6 road games SU and ATS while the Rockets have won their last 10 at home, going 7-2-1 ATS in those games. The Suns have really struggled in the underdog role this season at just 4-12 ATS and losing by an average score of 103.3 to 112.1. Here's the next major key: Phoenix is 0-7 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 100.3 to 112.3. Houston won by 12 points on the road in the first meeting this season and it will have the Suns' number again tonight.
Masterbets
Bet on BROWN to cover the spread
The line for this game reeks of a trap for those who like to bet on favorites and hope for the best. Harvard are favored by 2 points and may well be superior on paper but in this spot our data suggests that a small wager on the home team is advisable. Brown could well spring the minor upset tonight with a home court win and we'll take the points here.
Jrtips
PHOENIX vs. HOUSTON
Tonight, Yao Ming will go for his eighth win in his head-to-head battle with O'Neal as the Rockets try to hand the Suns their third consecutive loss in what has been an eventful road swing. The Suns opened the four-game trip Tuesday going 0-2 starting with a 111-99 loss to Orlando, and then they lost Wednesday 135-129 to Miami. O'Neal, averaging 29.8 points and 9.3 rebounds during his last four games, fouled out Wednesday as Phoenix (34-27) lost for the fifth time in six road games. Houston (39-23) dropped its last game, 101-94 at Utah on Wednesday.Yao scored 19 points and had seven boards. In the teams' only meeting against Phoenix this season, Yao had 17 points and 15 rebounds. O'Neal had 18 points and 13 boards to pace Phoenix, but the visiting Rockets won 94-82. Steve Nash had a season-high 29 points and 10 assists Wednesday and is averaging 24.5 points, 9.0 assists and 6.0 boards in two games after missing three with a sprained right ankle. Ron Artest, the first-year Rocket, is scoring 23.3 points per game on 54.4 percent shooting in his last four contests. Phoenix doesn"t play enough defense to win games on the road against a Top level team and the Rockets have been the hottest team in the league behind the Utah Jazz since the All-star Break. Yao will be up for this one and get his eight straight win against Oneal.
TAKE HOUSTON-6
Greg Shaker
Murray St. -3 vs Austin Peay
Interesting game tonight at this neutral court in Nashville with the better team having lost to Austin Peay twice this year by 2 very close scores and losing the last 3 by the same. Murray is the better squad in so many ways and they are coming in having won 8 of their last 9 games. This is tournament play and there are two things, among others, that make for good Tourney Teams. Good D, and Good Bench. In both catagories, the Racers have the advantage. They certainly have the motivation to return a favor. The Governors are winning games, but they are not covering games down the stretch. Their last 3 have been against subpar opposition and but they were somewhat exposed verses Drake the contest before that. I am laying the 3 points here.
ROCKETMAN
Elon vs Wofford
Play: Elon +6.5
We have a first round matchup from the Southern Conference Tournament going tonight as Elon meets Wofford Elon comes in 8-2 ATS since 1997 and 5-1 ATS last 3 years when playing in March. Elon is 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS overall vs Wofford since 1997 and 4-1 ATS vs Wofford the past 3 years. In this year's only matchup between these two, which was played in Wofford, Wofford squeaked out a 3 point win. This time they are playing on a neutral court in Chattanooga. Elon is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Elon is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. Elon is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog. Elon is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. Elon is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Elon is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win. I'm expecting a close game here with Elon possibly getting the upset. We'll recommend a small play on Elon tonight!
Dwayne Bryant
Murray State -3
Murray State and Austin Peay collide in this OVC Tournament semifinal matchup. This will be the third meeting between these schools this season.
On 1/10/09, Austin Peay went into Murray State as 5.5-point dogs and left with a 58-57 win. In the rematch on 2/7/09, Austin Peay hosted the Racers and won again, 83-80, as 2-point chalk. The Governors had to shoot 60.4% from the field to escape with that win.
When two teams are close in talent, it is very difficult for one team to win and cover all three meetings in the same season. Austin Peay has already won and covered the first two. The oddsmakers know this and have installed Murray State as the favorite tonight.
Murray State has been playing some very good basketball. The Racers have won four straight and eight of their last nine games. The Racers are the better team in this matchup when it comes to defense and rebounding. In their last five games, the Racers have improved their shooting from the field (47.4%) and 3-point ramge (37.3%).
Austin Peay has also won three straight, but they were double-digit home chalk in the last two games (weren't even close to covering either game) and near double-digit home chalk in the last game.
The Racers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games as a favorite. On the flip side, the Governors are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning SU record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win.
I think the third time's the charm for the Racers, so I'll lay the small number with Murray State.
John Ryan
NC Greensboro vs. Coll Charleston
Play: Coll Charleston -12
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on College of Charleston as they face UNC-Greensboro slated to start at 4:20 EST. AiS shows a 72% probability that COC will win this game by 14 or more points. This is the first round of the Southern Conference Tournament. Despite facing an inferior opponent, because it is the Tournament, COC will be well prepared and focused to win big. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 76-36 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1997. Play against neutral court teams as a dog that are off a win against a conference rival facing an opponent off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite. AiS also shows an 86% probability that COC will score between 75 and 80 points. Note that COC is a solid 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) when they score 75 to 80 points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Take COC.
Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors +1
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Toronto as they face Miami slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 27-5 ATS mark for 84% winners. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 that are average defensive teams allowing 43.5-45.5% shooting against a poor defensive team allowing 45.5-47.5%, after 3 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47% or higher. Miami is just 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take Toronto. Ryan is 3-1 ATS with his NBA 15* releases and 11-4-1 ATS w/10* releases. Join Ryan for this 15* Titan that is reinforced by Ryan’s extensive research featuring TWO proven systems and game situational angles hitting 45-10 ATS for 82% winners.
Tom Freese
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Over
The Lakers are 16-5-1 OVER off a straight up win and they are 19-7-1 OVER as home favorites of 11 or more points. Los Angeles is 6-2-1 OVER their last 9 games vs. losing teams and they are 6-2-1 OVER their 9 meetings with the Timberwolves. Minnesota is 17-5-2 OVER off a straight up loss and they are 4-0 OVER their last 4 games as road dogs. The Timberwolves are 6-1-1 OVER vs. winning teams and they are 7-3-1 OVER their last 11 games overall. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Wunderdog
Cleveland at Boston
Pick: UNDER 185
These teams have a lot of respect for each other, but no love. The rivalry is on after Boston disposed of the Cavs in an exciting playoff series last season. The series was for the most part ugly, which is another word for defense. They showed how nasty they can be on the defensive end as four games in the series didn't make it past 165 points scored and two finished in the 140s. The Celtics are two games shy of the Cavs, and Lakers in the loss column, and this is a pivital game for them as it is the Cavs. I would expect another ugly playoff type game here. Cavs have gone 23-7 ATS after an ATS win to the UNDER. Boston brings its best defense against the best as they have been 11-2 to the under in their last 13 vs teams with an over .600 winning percentage. UNDER gets the call here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Toronto Raptors +1.5
Toronto returns home after 3 straight road defeats and I like the Raptors to get back in the win column tonight. Miami has struggled north of the border losing 4 straight in Toronto and 7 of the last 9 overall in the series. Miami is just 9-20 ATS against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons and 8-20 ATS off a home win over the last 2 seasons. Lastly, we'll play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MIAMI) - average defensive team (43.5-45.5%) against a poor defensive team (45.5-47.5%), after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 47% or higher. This system is 27-5 ATS since 1996. Take Toronto.
Sports Letter
Austin Peay +3.5 Over Murray State
The Governors of the Ohio Valley Conference under their long-tenured Head Coach Dave Loos advanced to the second round of their Conference Tournament here with a Straight Up win over Eastern Illinois on Tuesday night. They are on a 5-1 SU Conference winning streak, and have won and covered their last three events in this match up. Other positive trends for the Governors here include 66-55 Against The Spread off a SU win in Conference Play, 35-28 ATS in Conference Play, and 2-0 ATS after scoring 60 or less points.
The Racers under their third-year Head Coach Billy Kennedy advanced to this round of the OVC Tournament by easily defeating Tennessee State in the first round. They are in fine fettle, having won their last eight Conference games SU. The Racers look to avenge both regular season losses to the Governors this evening. Negative trends include 8-17 ATS when the Total is in this point range, 2-5 ATS in Neutral Court Play, 38-65 ATS versus winning teams, and 51-70 ATS off a SU win in Conference Play.
The line overnited at Racers -3.5. We'll take those points and the Governors to cover for us here tonight in a Good Free Play.
Matt Rivers
For Friday lay the points with the Lakers.
This may be a first for me to actually advise somebody to lay such an exorbitant amount of points in the NBA because pretty much it is fairly asinine. I fully admit this could be a total blowout and still see the Timberwolves waltz in the backdoor late. But with that said this Minnesota team post Al Jefferson's injury has been the absolute joke of all jokes.
The Timberwolves have now dropped seven in a row and 12 of 13. It's not only the losses that do it for me here but it's the horrific way this team has been getting whacked by a billion game in and game out. Minnesota just went 0-4 on its homestand capped by an unreal 118-94 defeat to the fairly poor Warriors. The closest loss came by 11 with the average margin of defeat being a gross 18 ppg.
These teams did do battle in late February and the Wolves grabbed the cash in only a three point loss. Phil Jackson will remind Kobe and the fellas of that for sure making them have to come to play here with some focus and emotion.
Right now the Lakers are the best team in the NBA. LeBron and the Cavs are bidding for that title and the Celtics are still in the conversation but LA is the hunted of all hunters right now as Kobe, Pau, Fisher and the boys from LA are great and despite this monstrous number more than likely the right side in a 22 or so point burial!