Ben Burns
Houston Rockets at Charlotte Bobcats
Prediction: Under
The Rockets crushed the Bobcats by a score of 99-78 a few weeks ago. That wasn't particularly surprising though, as that game was at Houston and homecourt means an awful lot to both these teams.Heading into Wednesday's showdown with the Lakers (played after presstime) the Rockets have won 12 straight home games, going 17-3 their last 20. However, heading into Monday's clash at Denver, they've won just seven of their past 20 road games. For the season, through the weekend, the Rockets are 27-6 at home but just 14-17 on the road.As for the Bobcats, through the weekend, they're 10-20 on the road but a respectable 18-15 at home. Lately, however, it hasn't mattered where they've played, as they've been "getting it done," regardless of venue. Indeed, Saturday's 114-105 victory over the Knicks brought the Bobcats to a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS their last six games.The Bobcats have won two of four all-time home meetings with the Rockets. While they lost last year's meeting, that loss came by only three points. Playing as well as they ever have and with recent "payback" on their minds, consider backing the revenge-minded Bobcats.
Cajun Sports
Chicago Bulls vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Chicago Bulls +3
Eastern Conference foes Chicago and Philadelphia set to do battle on Friday the 13th at the Wachovia Center in Philly with tipoff set for 7:05PM Eastern Time. The Bulls are playing with revenge for an overtime loss at the United Center back in December. Chicago presents a matchup problem for the 76ers as they struggle against quick guard play and the Bulls point guard Derrick Rose can exploit that weakness while Ben Gordon & company knock down three-pointers versus a weak perimeter defense. The Bulls are in desperate need of a win they have lost six straight on the road and are fighting for the 8th spot in the playoffs. The visitor in this series has won the two previous meetings this season and the underdog has won the money in six of the last seven. Chicago is 7-1 ATS when installed as a road underdog after losing SU/ATS on the road. We also know that conference road underdogs in the NBA are 31-17-1 ATS after losing SU/ATS on the road in their last game. NBA road underdogs in this price range off an ATS loss on the road in their last game are a solid 22-5 ATS. We want to take the points here as the Bulls surprise the Sixers and get the straight up win in Philly on Friday the 13th.
Graded Selection: 2* Chicago Bulls 111 Philadelphia 76ers 104
Craig Trapp
Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -1.5
Ohio State and Wisconsin are both solidly in the NCAA Tournament and now are only playing for seeding in the big dance. These two only played once this year with Wisconsin winning at home by five. The game was close the whole game and Wisconsin pulled away late but did not cover the spread which was 6.
Betting Trends
Buckeyes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.
Buckeyes are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games.
Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Badgers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Badgers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
ATS Overall Records
Ohio State 14-11 Overall ATS, 7-4 Away ATS
Wisconsin 12-15 Overall ATS, 6-7 Away ATS
Craig is going to take the Badgers in this match up. Trends and ATS records really don't point to either team having an advantage. When this occurs you must just go with your handicapping skills. This will be a low scoring game and when looking at these situations I always take the better defense. Wisconsin holds there opponents to under 59 points per game and will hold down the Buckeyes today. Don't expect a huge win this one will be close. SCORE WISC 64 - OSU 59
Nelly
North Carolina - over Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech benefited from an ice cold shooting day from Miami yesterday as Jack McClinton was held to just nine points. The Hokies ended the season on a terrible slide and yesterday's game was a huge for a team that was definitely on shaky bubble footing. The win likely gets the Hokies in the big dance and hanging with Carolina may not be as much of a priority as it needs to be for them to have a chance. Virginia Tech took the cover when these teams played last week but they did so by a very slim margin and really were never a serious threat to win the game. Virginia Tech had a perfect day at the free throw line and limited turnovers in that game but still barely kept the game close playing at home. North Carolina has some defensive liabilities but Virginia Tech is not the type of team that will be able to exploit those opportunities in this situation. UNC has not been a strong ATS team this season but nor has Virginia Tech, closing the year 2-7 against the number. The Hokies are also not a deep team so the minutes in yesterday's game could add up. The Hokies have had some success in this series in recent years which will keep this line in check and North Carolina has won its opening ACC tournament by twelve or more each of the past three years.
Jimmy The Moose
Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 as a dog. They are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Boston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. In their last 7 home games they are also 1-6 ATS. The Grizzlies lose a lot more than they win but they always play the Celtics tough. The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 trips to Boston. Memphis is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings overall between the clubs. Play on the Memphis Grizzlies +.
Marc Lawrence
Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Detroit Pistons
The Pistons take on the Raptors north of the border tonight off a 5-point home loss to the Knicks on Wednesday knowing they are 7-1 SU and ATS of late in this series. With Toronto a money burning 10-19-1 ATS at home this season, including 3-10-1 when taking points, we'll lay them instead with Detroit.
Michael Cannon
Virginia Tech +12 vs. North Carolina, at Atlanta, GA
Take the points with Virginia Tech in the quarterfinals round of the ACC tournament.
There’s no question North Carolina should win this game, but with point guard Ty Lawson questionable with a toe injury you have to wonder how coach Roy Williams will approach it.
Does he risk losing Lawson for an extended time or does he keep his eye on the bigger prize and rest his star point guard?
I have a feeling Lawson will dress and see some action, but I doubt very seriously he’s going to see many minutes today. Virginia Tech has played Carolina fairly tough the last few meetings and you know the Hokies are going to be jacked for this matchup.
The Tarheels haven’t fared very well against the number this year and it’s due in large part to some hefty point spreads. Carolina has the talent to get by without Lawson today, but I don’t see them controlling play for the entire 40 minutes.
Virginia Tech is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with North Carolina, including an 86-78 home loss on March 4 as a 9 ½-point dog.
Take the points with the Hokies as they stay within the number.
2♦ VIRGINIA TECH
Mississippi State +2 vs. South Carolina, at Tampa, FL
Take Mississippi State as the small dog over South Carolina in the quarterfinals round of the SEC tournament.
I had the Bulldogs yesterday as a free play winner over Georgia and I’m backing them again this afternoon.
Mississippi State has played very well down the stretch, winning three straight including minor upsets over Florida and at Ole Miss before crushing Georgia yesterday. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.
South Carolina suffered two ugly losses on the road against Vanderbilt and at home versus Tennessee before righting the ship with a win at woeful Georgia.
The Gamecocks are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight overall.
Mississippi State has won and covered the last two meetings with South Carolina and I like how they have gelled down the stretch.
Take Mississippi State as they get it done over South Carolina.
3♦ MISSISSIPPI STATE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Temple +4' vs. XAVIER
For Friday, we are interested in the points in this Atlantic 10 semifinal, as Temple has won and covered 3 in a row, and the Owls have also recorded wins in 8 of their last 10 overall.
Temple did push in the lone series meeting this year against Xavier, as the Owls lost by 9, getting 9 at the Cintas Center in January.
The Owls have been one of the few A-10 schools that have given the Musketeers some problems recently, as Temple has won outright in 5 of the last 9 meetings, and are 4-0-1 against the spread in the last 5 series showdowns.
Xavier was able to shake off the rust in dispatching St. Louis on Thursday, but the "X"-Men are just a middling 4-4-1 against the spread their last 9 games.
With the crowd expected to be decidely pro-Temple, we will take the points, and look for another close one between these 2 conference rivals.
Play on the Owls.
2♦ TEMPLE
SPORTS ADVISORS
ACC TOURNAMENT
(at Atlanta)
Maryland (19-12, 13-10-2 ATS) vs. (8) Wake Forest (24-5, 15-10 ATS)
Maryland kept its slim NCAA Tournament hopes alive by slipping past North Carolina State 74-69 as a 2½-point favorite in its ACC tourney opener, halting a 1-3 SU and ATS skid. The Terrapins have played five neutral-site contests this season, going 3-2 SU and ATS, despite getting narrowly outscored by an average final margin 68.0-67.4.
Wake Forest, which earned an opening-round bye as the ACC’s No. 2 seed, capped its regular season with a 4-0 SU run (3-1 ATS), finishing with Sunday’s 96-88 victory over Clemson as a 4½-point favorite. During their four-game surge, the Demon Deacons have outscored opponents by nearly seven points per game (79-72.3). Wake also won both its neutral-site games this season – against Texas-El Paso and Cal State Fullerton – but failed to cash in either one.
Maryland is 4-1 SU in the last five meetings with Wake Forest but has gone just 2-3 ATS in those games. Ten days ago, Wake went to Maryland and prevailed 65-63, narrowly covering as a 1½-point road chalk. The teams have alternated spread-covers over the past five contests.
Despite Thursday’s effort, the Terrapins are still on a 4-10 ATS slide on neutral floors, and they haven’t won two games in the ACC tournament in five years, going 2-4 SU and ATS since 2004. Likewise, the Demon Deacons are on a 6-21 ATS freefall at neutral sites and they are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 ACC tourney tilts, but they are on pointspread upswings of 5-2 overall and 20-8-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The under for Maryland is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-1 at neutral sites and 4-1 against winning teams, and the total has stayed low in the last four meetings between these two teams. However, Wake has topped the total in seven of its last nine overall (all in ACC play).
ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST
Boston College (22-10, 14-13 ATS) vs. (9) Duke (25-6, 15-14-1 ATS)
Boston College rolled over Virginia 76-63 to open the ACC tournament, easily cashing as a five-point favorite to halt a two-game ATS skid and also end a six-game run of alternating SU wins and losses. The Eagles have won three of four and four of six, and are now 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU) in neutral-site games this season.
Duke, the No. 3 seed in the ACC, enters its postseason opener on a 5-1 SU and 4-1 ATS surge, though the SU loss came in Sunday’s 79-71 setback at archrival North Carolina in the regular-season finale. The Blue Devils got the cash as an 8½-point road underdog, moving to 4-1 ATS in their last five after going 0-5 ATS in their previous five.
Boston College dropped Duke 80-74 as a 7½-point home pup last month, moving to 5-2-1 ATS in eight clashes this decade, though the Blue Devils are 7-1 SU in that stretch. BC is 4-2 ATS against Duke since joining the ACC four years ago, and the underdog is on a 6-1 ATS streak.
BC has gone 5-3 SU and ATS in the ACC tourney since joining the league but has bowed out in this quarterfinal round each of the past two years with SU and ATS losses. Since sweeping to the ACC title with a 3-0 SU mark (1-2 ATS) in 2006, Duke has gone 1-2 SU and ATS in this event the last two years.
Duke played a trio of neutral-site games this season, going 3-0 SU and ATS and winning by an average of 19.3 ppg, including an 82-64 drubbing of Atlantic 10 regular-season champ Xavier laying six points. However, the Blue Devils have covered in just four of their last 19 Friday tilts.
The Eagles have now cashed in 21 of their last 29 neutral-site contests, but they also carry negative pointspread streaks of 0-4 coming off a spread-cover, 2-5 against winning teams and 4-9-1 in Friday contests.
For Boston College, the under is on tears of 5-0 overall (all in the ACC) and 5-1 on neutral courts, and the under for Duke is on rolls of 24-11 overall, 8-1 at neutral sites and 15-5 within the ACC. However, the over is on 8-0 stretches for both squads when playing against winning teams, and the total has cleared the posted price in the last eight meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
BIG 12 TOURNAMENT
(at Oklahoma City, Okla.)
Texas vs. Baylor (19-13, 10-15 ATS)
Baylor, which knocked off Nebraska 65-49 as a one-point ‘dog in an opening-round game Wednesday, shocked top-seeded and three-time defending tournament champion Kansas 71-64 as an 8½-point underdog Thursday afternoon. Sophomore guard LaceDarius Dunn drained six shots from three-point range and scored a game-high 24 points for the Bears, who have won and covered in consecutive games for the first time since Jan. 21.
Following Baylor’s win, Texas took the court at the Ford Center and outlasted Kansas State 61-58, pushing as a three-point favorite. The Longhorns, who topped Colorado 67-56 but failed to cover as a 14½-point favorite in Wednesday’s opening round, were taken to the limit despite clearly outplaying K-State, shooting 52.3 percent from the field while holding the Wildcats to 28.8 percent. Texas has rebounded from a three-game slide by winning six of its last nine SU, but the Longhorns remain mired in a 5-13-1 ATS slump (5-12-1 ATS in Big 12 action).
These teams met just 11 days ago in Austin, Texas, and the Longhorns cruised to a 73-57 victory as an eight-point favorite for their 24th straight win in this rivalry. Texas also prevailed 78-72 as a 1½-point underdog at Baylor on Jan. 27 and is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
The Bears are in the tournament semifinals for just the second time in school history, the first coming in 2001. Prior to this week, Baylor had lost six of seven Big 12 tourney games (4-3 ATS). Texas has now won consecutive games in this event for the fourth straight year, but in each of the past three, the Longhorns failed to win a third game. That includes three straight losses to Kansas in the tournament championship game the last three seasons.
Despite getting the money in the first two games of this tournament, Baylor is still just 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games (4-13 ATS in Big 12 action) and 2-5 ATS in its last seven as an underdog. However, the Bears are now 4-0 SU and ATS at neutral sites this season, 13-3 ATS in their last 16 at neutral venues and 6-3 ATS in their last nine Big 12 tournament games. Meanwhile, Texas is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 as a favorite, but the ‘Horns are now 5-1 SU at neutral sites this year (3-2-1 ATS) and 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven on Friday.
Baylor has stayed under the total in nine consecutive games, and the under is 10-1-1 in its last 12 (all in conference) and 7-3 in its last 10 at neutral venues. Also, Texas is on “under” stretches of 4-1 overall (2-0 in this tournament), 4-0 at neutral sties and 6-2 on Friday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and UNDER
Oklahoma State (22-10, 14-11-1 ATS) vs. (14) Missouri (26-6, 15-10 ATS)
Oklahoma State’s late-season run continued Thursday with a 71-70 upset of rival Oklahoma in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament, cashing as a five-point ‘dog. With the upset of the Sooners, the Cowboys won for the eighth time in their last nine games (9-0 ATS) and had five players reach double-digits. Defensively, OSU held the Sooners to just 3-of-19 shooting from the three-point line.
Missouri earned its spot in today’s semifinal with a 81-60 blowout win over Texas Tech on Wednesday, cashing as a 12½-point favorite. The Tigers broke open a tied game at the half by outscoring the Red Raiders 50-29 over the final 20 minutes and finished by shooting 53.4 percent from the floor while holding Texas Tech to 37 percent shooting.
These two teams played a thriller in Stillwater, Okla., on Jan. 21 with Missouri scoring a 97-95 win as a one-point road pup. The Tigers have won five of the last seven series clashes (6-1 ATS), and the ‘dog has covered each and every one of those games.
Oklahoma State is on a 12-3 SU and 9-5-1 ATS roll in this tournament, including back-to-back championships in 2003 and 2004. Meanwhile, Missouri snapped a three-game SU and ATS losing skid in the Big 12 tournament with last night’s win, and they’re looking to get to the championship game for the first time in six years.
In addition to cashing in nine consecutive games (all in the Big 12), the Cowboys are on ATS streaks of 16-6-2 in neutral-site games and 7-1-1 in Big 12 tournament action. Meanwhile, the Tigers have cashed in eight of their last 11 overall and 11 of 16 (all in the Big 12), going 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a favorite. Also, Missouri is 3-2 SU and ATS on neutral courts this season.
For Oklahoma State, the under is on streaks of 5-2 overall (all in confference0, 6-2 on Friday and 5-1 after a SU win. The under is also 5-2 in Mizzou’s last seven neutral-site games.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA STATE and UNDER
BIG TEN TOURNAMENT
(at Indianapolis)
Michigan (20-12, 16-10-1 ATS) vs. Illinois (23-8, 14-11-1 ATS)
Michigan advanced to the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament with Thursday’s 73-45 rout of Iowa at Conseco Fieldhouse, easily covering as a five-point underdog. The Wolverines are on a 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS run, cashing in the last four games in a row.
Illinois earned a first-round bye in this event by finishing tied for second in the conference standings, but it closed the regular season with consecutive SU and ATS losses to Michigan State at home (74-66) and Penn State on the road (64-63). The Illini’s two-game slide comes on the heels of a 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS run.
These teams split their season series, with Michigan winning 74-64 as a 1½-point home chalk and Illinois returning the favor with a 66-51 blowout victory as a seven-point favorite. Michigan is 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings, but the favorite has cashed in four of the last five.
The Illini advanced to last year’s tournament championship game, where they lost to Wisconsin 61-48 as a seven-point underdog. Going back to 1998, Illinois is 11-1 in its initial tournament game, but just 5-7 ATS. Michigan has now won three straight opening-round games (3-0 ATS), but it went 0-2 SU and ATS the last two years in the second round and hasn’t won two straight in this tourney since capturing the championship in 1998.
Although the Wolverines have cashed in four straight overall and six of their last seven – all in Big Ten action – they’ve failed to cover in four straight Friday outings. Illinois is on ATS runs of 4-0 at neutral sites, 5-2 on Friday, 6-2 after a SU loss and 8-3 following a pointspread setback, but the Illini have failed to cover in five of their last seven Big Ten tourney games as a favorite.
The under is on runs of 5-0 for Michigan at neutral sites, 19-9-1 for Michigan versus the Big Ten, 4-1 for Michigan on Friday, 11-4 for Illinois overall (all in the Big Ten), 5-1 for Illinois at neutral sites and 14-3 for Illinois on Friday. Finally, the total has alternated in the last six series meetings between these schools, with the most recent contest at Illinois staying under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Penn State (22-10, 14-10-1 ATS) vs. (24) Purdue (22-9, 12-15 ATS)
Penn State moved a step closer to locking up its first Big Dance berth since 2001 with Thursday’s 66-51 rout of Indiana as an 8½-point favorite in opening-round action. The Nittany Lions have won five of their last seven, but they’re just 4-6 ATS in their last 10.
Purdue finished tied for second place in the Big Ten in the regular season, but closed by losing three of its last four, including two in a row to Northwestern (64-61 as a 12½-point home favorite) and Michigan State (62-51 as a 5½-point road underdog). The Boilermakers, whose 1-3 SU slump follows a 10-2 SU hot streak, have failed to cover in seven of their last 10 contests.
The Nittany Lions scored a mild upset over Purdue back on Jan. 6, winning 67-64 as a 2½-point home underdog, but the Boilermakers exacted revenge with a 61-47 route at home a month later, barely covering as a 10½-point chalk. Purdue is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings and has cashed in four of the last five, all as a favorite.
The Boilermakers have gotten bounced in the first round of this event in six of the last seven years, going 2-5 ATS in those contests. That includes last year’s 74-67 overtime loss to Illinois as a 4½-point chalk. Despite yesterday’s rout of Indiana, Penn State is just 2-8 SU in the Big Ten tournament since 2001, but the Nittany Lions are 7-0 ATS in their last seven in this event (6-0 ATS as an underdog).
Penn State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 on Friday, while Purdue is 5-2 ATS in its last seven Friday outings, but the Boilers have failed to cover in five of their last six at neutral venues.
Nine of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry have stayed under the total, and the under is 7-3 in Penn State’s last 10 on Friday, 6-1 in its last seven against winning teams and 6-1 in Purdue’s last seven versus teams with a winning record.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PENN STATE and UNDER
ATLANTIC 10 TOURNAMENT
(at Atlantic City, New Jersey)
Temple (20-11, 16-11-1 ATS) vs. Xavier (25-6, 16-11-2 ATS)
Xavier, which won the Atlantic 10 regular-season crown, opened the tournament Thursday with a 66-47 blowout of Saint Louis as a 12½-point chalk, quickly bouncing back from Saturday’s 80-75 setback at Richmond as a 5½-point favorite to cap the regular season. The Musketeers have won four of their last five games (3-1-1 ATS), averaging 71.2 ppg in that stretch while holding opponents to just 58.6 ppg.
Temple also rolled Thursday, taking out St. Joe’s 79-65 as a five-point favorite for its third straight win and cover following a three-game ATS skid (1-2 SU). Over the last five games, the Owls have averaged 67.6 ppg and allowed 63.4 ppg, and in their three neutral-site outings this year, they have outscored opponents by eight points per game (77-69) in going 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU).
Xavier topped Temple 83-74 last month, getting a push as a nine-point home chalk to halt a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS run by the Owls in this rivalry. Still, the underdog is on a 6-0-1 ATS roll in the last seven clashes.
Temple is on a 6-2 SU and ATS run in A-10 tournament play, winning and cashing in all three games last year en route to the conference championship. Xavier hasn’t reached the conference final since going 4-0 SU and ATS in the 2006 tournament, posting a 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS since winning that title.
The Musketeers are on a bundle of ATS streaks, including 12-5-2 overall, 9-3-1 against winning teams and a lengthy 35-16-1 on neutral courts. Likewise, the Owls are on positive ATS runs of 33-16-1 overall, 6-1 on neutral floors, 14-5 after a spread-cover, 16-7-1 after a SU win and 25-9-1 in the A-10.
The under for Xavier is on rolls of 6-2-1 overall (all in the A-10) and 4-0 at neutral sites, and the under for Temple is on stretches of 7-2 overall (all in A-10 play) and 5-1 after both a SU and ATS win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: XAVIER and UNDER
BIG EAST TOURNAMENT
(at New York)
(5) Louisville (26-5, 19-11-1 ATS) vs. (10) Villanova (26-6, 16-12 ATS)
Villanova blew a 16-point halftime lead against Marquette on Thursday and trailed by one in the waning seconds when Dwayne Anderson took a pass under the basket and banked in a layup as the buzzer sounded to lift the Wildcats to a 76-75 victory. Anderson’s bucket, his only one of the game, gave Villanova its third straight victory, but it failed to cover as a 2½-point favorite despite holding Marquette to just 33 percent shooting.
Louisville had little trouble with Providence in its tournament debut Thursday, rolling to a 73-55 victory and cashing as a 10½-point favorite. The Cardinals, who outshot the Friars 48.4 percent to 33.9 percent, have now won eight in a row, going 6-1-1 ATS. During the winning streak, Rick Pitino’s squad has posted five double-digit wins.
The Wildcats have won and covered in their last four opening-round tournament games, only to get bounced in the very next round each time (0-4 ATS). Meanwhile, Louisville hasn’t won two games in the Big East tournament since joining the league in 2005-06, going 1-3 SU and ATS in four contests prior to this year. The SU winner has cashed in each of the Cardinals’ five conference tourney games, and the winner had been 11-0 ATS in Villanova’s previous 11 contests in this event prior to Thursday.
The Cardinals went to Villanova on Dec. 10 and escaped with a 61-60 victory as a two-point road underdog, improving to 4-0 ATS (2-2 SU) in the last four series meetings. Louisville has won the last two straight-up after the Wildcats took the first three clashes after the Cardinals joined the league in 2006.
Even though they came up short against the number Thursday, the Wildcats are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 overall (all in the Big East) and 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog (all versus league opponents). Louisville’s ATS runs include 36-16-2 overall and 40-12-3 in Big East play, but it has failed to cover in four of its last five on Friday and four of its last five at neutral venues.
Louisville has stayed under the total in its last two games and the under is 5-1-1 in its last six at neutral sites and 4-1 in its last five on Friday. Conversely, the over is 8-3 in Villanova’s last 11 overall (all in the Big East).
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(18) Syracuse (25-8, 16-13 ATS) vs. West Virginia (23-10, 15-15 ATS)
Syracuse survived the longest game in Big East history and the longest game in college basketball since 1981 Thursday night, beating UConn 127-117 in six overtimes and cashing as 5½-point underdogs. The Orange got tremendous efforts from Jonny Flynn, who finished with 34 points, 11 assists, went 16-of-16 from the free-throw line and played 67 of 70 minutes, while Paul Harris chipped in with 28 points and 20 rebounds and went 12-of-12 from the charity stripe.
West Virginia moves into the tourney semifinals after Thursday’s 74-60 upset win over second-ranked and No. 2-seed Pittsburgh as a 4½-point underdog. The Mountaineers got a career-high 20 points from Devin Ebanks and have advanced to the semis for the second straight season.
Syracuse is on a 6-0 SU and ATS run and has scored at least 86 points in seven of its last eight games. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers are 7-2 in their last nine outings (6-3 ATS), and they’ve been doing it with defense, giving up just 59.7 points per contest in their last six. The winning team is on ATS runs of 13-2 in West Virginia’s last 15 games and 18-0 in Syracuse’s last 18, with both trends entirely encompassing Big East play.
The Orangemen blew out West Virginia back on Feb. 4 in Syracuse, winning 74-61 as 1½-point home underdogs. The Mountaineers are have prevailed just once in the last 10 meetings, with Syracuse going 7-3 ATS during this stretch (6-2 ATS last eight).
Syracuse is now riding a 10-2 SU and 9-2-1 ATS streak in Big East tournament action in Madison Square Garden, and the Orange are also on ATS runs of 4-1 at neutral sites and 5-2 on Friday. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers are 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) in their last five Big East tourney contests and 5-1 ATS in their last six Friday affairs.
West Virginia sports “under” streaks of 9-2 overall (all in the Big East), 4-0 at neutral sites and 6-1 after a SU win. However, Syracuse has topped the total in 13 of 20 Big East games, including eight of the last 12, and the over is 6-1 in its last seven neutral-site games. Finally, the under was the play when these two met in January, coming in by 10 points, and four of the last five series clashes have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
PAC-10 TOURNAMENT
(at Los Angeles)
(23) Arizona State (23-8, 17-10 ATS) vs. (13) Washington (25-7, 18-10-1 ATS)
Arizona State ended a seven-game Pac-10 tournament losing streak by ousting archrival Arizona 68-56 Thursday, covering as a 4½-point favorite as it beat the Wildcats for the third time this season. Sophomore superstar James Harden led the way with a game-high 27 points for the Sun Devils, who have followed up a three-game SU and 1-3 ATS slide by winning and covering in each of their last two, both double-digit victories.
Washington, which clinched their first Pac-10 regular-season tournament title since 1953 with Saturday’s 67-60 win over Washington State as a seven-point home favorite, dominated in the second half against Stanford yesterday en route to an easy 85-73 victory as a 5 ½-point favorite. The Huskies have won six in a row and nine of their last 10, going 6-2-1 ATS in lined games.
The Huskies swept the regular-season series, rolling 84-71 as a five-point road underdog, then needing overtime to prevail 73-70 on Feb. 26, coming up just shy as a 3½-point home chalk. Washington is 13-1 SU in the last 14 meetings (9-5 ATS), though the underdog has gotten the money in each of the last four clashes since the start of last season.
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last six neutral-site games and hasn’t won consecutive conference tournament games since winning the championship in 2005. Meanwhile, ASU is on pointspread upticks of 7-3 overall (all in the Pac-10), 6-2 at neutral sties and 5-1 after a SU win, but is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight conference tourney contests.
The over for Washington is on stretches of 15-3 overall, 14-3 as a favorite, 21-6 in Pac-10 play, 5-1 at neutral sites (4-0 last four) and 5-1 on Friday. Also, the over is 4-1 in the Sun Devils last five neutral-site contests. Finally, the last three meetings between these clubs – including both this year – easily topped the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON and OVER
USC (19-12, 15-14 ATS) vs. (15) UCLA (25-7, 16-14-1 ATS)
USC gets its third shot this season against cross-town rival UCLA after improving to 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three games with Thursday’s 79-75 win over Cal as a two-point favorite. After building a 15-point halftime lead, the Trojans had to hold on down the stretch, hitting 16-of-20 free throws to seal the deal and win their third straight opening-round Pac-10 tournament game. The team’s modest three-game winning streak comes after the Trojans lost six of seven Pac-10 games (2-5 ATS) in February.
UCLA is riding a five-game winning streak (4-0-1 ATS) after Thursday’s 64-53 victory over Washington State, covering as an 8 ½-point chalk. Ben Howland’s team, which avenged its most recent defeat with the victory, held the Cougars to 29.1 percent shooting from the field and got 15 points from senior point guard Darren Collison. The Bruins’ 4-0-1 ATS surge comes after an 0-4 ATS dip, and the SU winner is now 12-1-1 ATS in the team’s last 14 games.
The Bruins swept the regular season series against the Trojans (2-0 SU and ATS) and they have won four straight, six of seven and nine of 11 in this rivalry. However, USC is 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings overall. The pup has cashed in 11 of the last 16 head-to-head battles.
Going back to last year’s postseason, the Bruins are 9-2 SU at neutral sites, but just 5-6 ATS. However, they’re the defending Pac-10 tournament champs and have cut down the nets twice in the last three years, The Trojans come into this one on ATS runs of 7-1 ATS ias a neutral-site ‘dog and 4-0 on Friday, but they’re just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 after a spread-cover and 11-4 ATS in their last five overall when catching points.
USC has stayed under the total in nine of 12 neutral-site contests and four of its last five on Friday, but it is currently riding an 8-4 “over” run (4-1 “over” in the last five). The Bruins have topped the total in 13 of their last 15 games (all in the Pac-10), four of their last five at neutral sites and 26 of 36 conference games. In this rivalry, the under has been the play in the last three clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCLA
SEC TOURNAMENT
(at Tampa, Fla.)
Alabama (18-13, 13-12-1 ATS) vs. Tennessee (19-11, 12-15-1 ATS)
Alabama knocked off Vanderbilt 82-75 in its SEC opener Thursday, covering as a three-point pup to improve to 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games, all in conference action. The Crimson Tide, putting up 81.7 ppg over their last six starts after averaging 71.2 in their first 25 games, have gone 3-1 SU in their four neutral-site contests this year (2-1 ATS in lined contests).
Tennessee, which got a first-round bye, gets an immediate shot at revenge, having lost its regular-season finale to Alabama 70-67 as a heavy 13-point home chalk Sunday, ending a three-game SU run (2-1 ATS). The Volunteers have averaged 74.2 ppg in their last five starts, just a tick above their opponents (73.6 ppg), but they put up 80.7 ppg and allowed 75 in their three neutral-court starts, going 2-1 SU and ATS.
Alabama has absolutely owned this rivalry lately, going 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the SU winner is also 9-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes.
The Crimson Tide are on ATS rolls of 6-1 overall (all in the SEC), 6-1 against winning teams and 6-1 at neutral sites, and this is the fourth time in the past six years they’ve reached the second round of the SEC tourney, but they’ve failed to get out of this round the previous three tries (1-1-1 ATS).
The Vols are a dismal 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 neutral-site games, and they are on a 1-6 ATS slide in their last seven SEC tournament games (2-5 SU).
The over for Alabama is on stretches of 5-1 overall (all in SEC play) and 6-2 at neutral sites. On the flip side, the under has hit in seven of Tennessee’s last eight games (all in the SEC), and Sunday’s home affair against ‘Bama fell well short of the 151.5 posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ALABAMA
Florida (23-9, 10-14-1 ATS) vs. Auburn (21-10, 19-5 ATS)
Florida rolled past Arkansas 73-58 laying 9½ points in its SEC tourney opener yesterday, winning and cashing in back-to-back starts for the first time since late January and only the third time all season. The Gators, who won this event three straight years before getting bounced in the first round last year, are still mired in an 4-7 ATS slump overall (5-6 SU), all in conference play.
Auburn, which got a first-round bye after taking second in the SEC West, enters the tournament on an 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS tear, including a blowout 69-53 home win over regular-season SEC champion LSU as a two-point home chalk last Saturday. With the exception of that game, the Tigers have scored 71 points or more throughout their current run, all against league foes, averaging 76.2 ppg while yielding 66.8.
Florida has won and covered in the last three clashes in this rivalry, taking a 68-65 road win as a 2½-point chalk in January in the only meeting this season. In fact, Florida has won 10 straight meetings dating to 2001, going 7-2-1 ATS in that span.
Auburn went 0-2 SU (1-1 ATS) on neutral courts this season, and Florida is now 3-1 SU (1-2 ATS in lined contests).
Despite Thursday’s win and cover, the Gators remain on a 1-4 ATS skid at neutral sites and a 3-5 ATS dip against the SEC. However, still riding the strength of their back-to-back national titles in 2006 and 2007, they are 10-1 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 conference tournament games.
The Tigers are an 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS slide in their last four SEC tourney starts, failing to win a game in this event since 2005, and they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five at neutral sites, but they sport positive pointspread streaks of 12-2 against the SEC, 8-0 against winning teams and 19-7-1 overall. Furthermore, their 19-5 ATS mark this season ranked No. 1 in the country.
The over is 4-2 in Florida’s last six neutral-site contests and is on a 10-4 tear for Auburn playing on neutral courts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: AUBURN and OVER
NBA
Houston (42-24, 31-34-1 ATS) at Charlotte (28-36, 38-26 ATS)
The Bobcats will try to rebound from their first loss in seven games when they welcome the Rockets to Charlotte tonight.
Houston arrives in Charlotte having won five of seven overall (4-3 ATS), but the Rockets fell 102-96 at home Wednesday to the Lakers, blowing an 11-point halftime lead in losing as 3½-point favorites. Houston has won two of its last three roadies, including Monday’s 97-95 victory in Denver as a four-point underdog, and it is a respectable 15-17 on the road this season (16-16 ATS).
The Bobcats were flying high with a six-game SU and ATS winning streak before losing 100-86 in San Antonio on Tuesday, coming up short as 5½-point ‘dogs. Charlotte has increased its offensive production lately, averaging 98.8 points per game in the last five and shooting at a 50-percent clip.
Houston has won six straight in this series (4-2 ATS), including a 99-78 home win back on Feb. 22, easily cashing as a six-point chalk. When they went to Charlotte last season, the Rockets edged the Bobcats 85-82 but came up short as 6½-point favorites.
The Rockets are on ATS runs of 20-6 against Southeast Division opponents, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference and 12-3 after a non-cover. Charlotte is on positive ATS streaks of 11-2 at home, 6-1 overall, 14-6-1 on Fridays and 9-4 when getting two days of rest.
For Houston, the under is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 6-1 on Fridays, 4-1 against Southeast Division teams and 4-0 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, the Bobcats have gone over the total in five of their last six, but they’re otherwise on under runs of 23-11 against Southwest Division teams, 4-1 against teams with a winning record and 5-0 after a straight-up loss. In this rivalry, the under is 5-1 in the last six clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Jeff Benton
For Friday’s free play in conference tournament action, we’ll lay the small points with Louisville against Villanova in the Big East tourney semifinals.
To say that ‘Nova is lucky to be here is an understatement. The Wildcats squandered away a 16-point halftime lead against Marquette yesterday and needed a miracle pass-turned-layup at the buzzer to get past the Golden Eagles 76-75. On the other hand, before ‘Nova’s thriller, Louisville toyed with Providence in a 73-55 victory as a 10-point chalk. Granted, Marquette was a more formidable foe for Villanova than Providence was for the Cardinals, but the fact is, Louisville took care of business emphatically … and it is streaking in the right way right now.
Rick Pitino’s troops have won eight straight games, going 6-1-1 ATS, and five of those eight wins were double-digit romps. Additionally, Louisville has covered in four straight meetings with Villanova, including a 61-60 road win as a two-point ‘dog back on Jan. 10 (this year’s only meeting). It was one of just two home losses that the Wildcats suffered all season.
The Cardinals are on impressive pointspread-covering streaks of 40-12-3 in Big East play, 36-16-2 overall and 20-7-2 as a favorite of less than seven points, while Villanova has failed to cover in five of its last seven as an underdog at neutral sites. Add to all that the fact that, because of yesterday’s upset losses by the likes of Pitt, UConn, Oklahoma and Kansas, Louisville now has a clear path to a No. 1 seed in next week’s Big Dance, and we’ll lay this reasonable number with confidence!
4♦ LOUISVILLE
Scott Delaney
Today we're playing the Under in the Virginia Tech/North Carolina game.
There is only one way the Hokies are getting into the Big Dance, and that's by getting past the top-ranked Tar Heels today. And there is only one way the Hokies are getting past the top-ranked Tar Heels, and that's by playing the same tenacious defense that limited Miami to a mere 47 points yesterday.
I can't tell you what to do with the side in this game, but I can tell you that coach Seth Greenberg is fanatical about pressuring the basketball, and staying the opposition's face the entire game.
I'm sure the Hokies are well-tested for this major exam, as they finished the grueling ACC campaign by playing Clemson, Duke, Carolina and Florida State - all ranked in the Top 25 at the time they played. And things might get easier for them, in terms of defending the potent Heels, if their point guard Ty Lawson does not play because of an injured toe.
Now I know it sounds as if I'm leaning toward the Hokies, but such is not the case since the Heels have covered six of their last seven on a neutral court.
I just believe this pace will be slow as molasses today in this matinee. After all, the Hokies are on Under runs of 4-1 when they're installed as the underdog, 7-3 on Fridays and 5-2 overall - all in ACC action.
Take this one low today.
Va Tech/North Carolina UNDER
Matt Rivers
For Friday take the points with the Buckeyes.
I am not a huge fan of this Ohio State team nor do I believe they are as good as the Badgers. But with that said in this neutral court setting anything at all is possible in this probably low scoring defensive struggle of a game and to be the underdog plus a few points is enough for me.
We are more than likely looking at an ugly ugly game in the 50's that will come down to the last possession. Evan Turner has been a total stud and even with the improvements of late Wisconsin is still the same team that had that mid season seven game losing streak. Things have improved for sure since, but Bo Ryan's group has still dropped two of their last four games, failed to cover in three of four and and in those SU losses scored 50 and 46 points respectively. In fact take away the 85 point performance last time out against a putrid Indiana squad without Devan Dumes and Wiscy has not gone North of 69 points since mid January.
Ohio State started out the season like a house on fire the first month or so but things certainly have not gone as good of late. Jim O'Brien's squad though has kept it together and enough so to be square on that bubble, if not already in the Field of 65. The Bucks have won two straight and three of four and may not get the outright but will stay ultra competitive and the points could easily be worth its weight in gold today.
This thing is going to come down to the wire and to get any amount of points is huge, even a small amount, period!
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
Hey, we come through yesterday as Boston College does enough to give us a Comp Play winner. We’re making it two in a row as we’re switching gears and coming at it with some solid Big Ten action as we’re taking Michigan State over Minnesota today.
First off, as soon as I saw the line on the Minnesota-Michigan State game my jaw dropped, my eyes popped out and I was in utter disbelief.
Considering the way these teams have played down the stretch and with Michigan State still pushing for a No. 1 seed in The Tournament, the Spartans will absolutely brutalize the Golden Gophers.
The Spartans come into this game having covered in six of their last nine games and are on a five-game SU winning streak, having beat their opponents by about 8 points per game (64.6-56).
Not only that, but Michigan State is 6-2 ATS its last eight games against Minnesota, including covers in three consecutive meetings. Also, the Spartans are on a 5-game SU winning streak against the Gophers, beating them by an average of 15.2 points per game.
Also, in two meetings this season, the Spartans beat Minnesota by an average of 20.5 points per.
Keep in mind also, that the Gophers are only 2-7 ATS their last nine games against the Big Ten and have covered only twice in their last nine games at neutral sites.
Things won’t get any better for Minnesota as they lose big to Michigan State. Take the Spartans easily in this one.
3♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Bobby Maxwell
Houston at CHARLOTTE -1
Charlotte had won six in a row before playing in San Antoino on Tuesday, falling 100-86 on the Spurs home court as 5 1/2-point underdogs. But this team has been playing great and can get in there and get the job done tonight against the talented Rockets.
The Bobcats have averaged 98.8 points a game in the last five and they are shooting 50.8 percent from the floor. Charlote is still trying to fight its way into the Eastern Conference playoffs and the mid-season additions of Raja Bell and Boris Diaw has really lit a fire under these guys.
Charlotte is on ATS streaks of 11-2 at home, 6-1 overall, 14-6-1 on Fridays and 9-4 when they get two days of rest.
Play the home team in this one as the Bobcats should get the job done down the stretch.
4♦ CHARLOTTE
Michigan +3 vs. Illinois, in Indianapolis
Today's FREE play winner on the college hardwood is coming from the Big 10 as we go with Michigan to take care of Illinois in the quarterfinals.
Michigan is playing for its postseason life. The Wolverines need to grab as many wins as possible and they know it. They'll play with passion in this one and we'll back them in this Big 10 quarterfinal against Illinois.
The Wolverines have won five of seven (5-1-1 ATS) and they dominated Iowa on Thursday in the opening round of the Big 10 tourney, winning 73-45 as a five-point favorite. Remember, Michigan has some big wins on the board already, with victories over Duke and UCLA early in the season.
These two teams split the two games this season as the home team has rattled off eight straight wins. Michigan is 6-3 ATS in the last nine head-to-head meetings.
Illinois is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with winning records and they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a favorite of up to 6 1/2-points. Meanwhile, Michigan is 4-0 ATS in its last four, all against Big Ten foes.
DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris combined for 45 points on Thursday for the Wolverines and they know what it takes to beat Ilinois. Play Michigan in this one.
2♦ MICHIGAN