James Patrick
Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
The Cowboys made their season with their upset over the Sooners in Thursday action. The Tigers will be tough to keep pace with for 40 minutes and we see this turning into a rout in the second half. Our Friday selection in Big XII Tournament action is Missouri Tigers.
Dave Cokin
Mavericks @ Warriors
Play: Warriors
The Mavericks are battling for a playoff spot, while the Warriors are long gone as far as post-season hopes are concerned. But whenever the Mavericks show up in Oakland, Don Nelson has his team ready to play against his former employers. The Warriors have completely dominated Dallas at this site, covering each of the last seven meetings on this court, and I'm therefore going to lean Golden State's way for my free Friday opinion.
Stephen Nover
Memphis Grizzlies @ Boston Celtics
PICK: Memphis Grizzlies
It doesn't matter what team Boston is playing now, even one as bad as Memphis. The Celtics are in no condition to cover a big spread, especially one as high as double-digits.
The Celtics are 3-4 in their last seven games, 1-6 against the spread. They are not the same club without Kevin Garnett. And they're nothing resembling an elite club minus five of their eight main rotation players as point guard Rajon Rondo remains out along with reserves Glen Davis, Brian Scalabrine and Tony Allen.
This cluster injury problem means extended minutes for newcomers Stephon Marbury, Mikki Moore and even rookie Bill Walker. Marbury and Moore, two well-traveled veterans, have not looked good. Marbury is extremely rusty. He's missed 18 of 21 shots from the floor during the last five games.
The Celtics are merely trying to survive as they wait to get back to full strength while going through growing pains with their newcomers. They are in no condition to cover big spreads.
Memphis traditionally has had good success against Boston, going 12-3-1 against the number in the past 16 meetings. The Grizzlies struggle to score points, but usually can be counted on for an effort because Lionel Hollins is trying hard to show he should be the team's coach again next season.
I expect Memphis to be fired-up after an embarrassing 25-point loss on Wednesday to the lowly Timberwolves. Marc Gasol quietly is putting together an excellent rookie season for Memphis.
Boston and Memphis meet again in eight days, so don't expect the Celtics to do anything to embarrass the Grizzlies. They couldn't even if they wanted to because of their injury situation.
This is a two-unit play for me.
JIM FEIST
NEW JERSEY NETS / PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS
Take Over
Where has the Portland defense been? They've allowed 105, 106, 93, 94 and 93 the last five games. Prior to that they had held 7 straight opponents under 100. At least their offense is fine, and they take on an uptempo New Jersey team that has been an "over" the total machine, at 10-2 over the last 12 games. The Nets don't play a lick of defense. Theses teams have met once, and the game sailed over in a 105-99 Nets' win at home. Look for another offensive show, play the Nets/Blazers over the total.
Greg Shaker
Alabama-Birmingham Blazers at Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Play: Tulsa Pick
The Winner of this contest gets to probably play Memphis tomorrow and although that is not something to look forward to, I do believe it will be the Hurricane. They coasted through an easy win over Rice yesterday while UAB had to go to Overtime to get to where they are tonight. OT Winners do not fair well the next day in Tournament Action especially when they are playing a team as good as Tulsa, and one that is much more rested. Tulsa plays a very good brand of D and we saw that yesterday as they limited the Owls to just 36% shooting. That was not a abberation for this school as they have done that to many teams this year. The last 6 played has seen similar results, and they have won all six of those contests. Peaking at the right time is the best way to describe Tulsa and they have hardly challenged in either of those contests, winning by 9 points or more. I am certainly not suggesting that the Blazers are not a worthy opponent tonight at FedEx Forum, but they do have deficits in rebounding, defensive skills, and most importantly bench strength. We are simply more fresh and playing better basketball right now.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Portland Trail Blazers -6.5
Off a rare home loss to Dallas in their last game, expect the Blazers to be out for blood tonight against a Nets team that has lost 5 of its last 6 on the road. Portland has won 9 of the last 11 at home in this series and is 4-1 SU and ATS in all meetings over the last 3 seasons. Here are two big keys: New Jersey is 2-14 ATS in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, getting smoked by an average score of 92.1 to 105.4 in these games, and 1-13 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, also getting smoked by an average score of 95.4 to 108.8 in these spots. Lay the points.
Vegas Experts
Ohio State at Wisconsin
Line is moving the wrong way in this one as the Badgers need the game far more than the Buckeyes do. Wisky has won the last two head-to-head meetings, holding Ohio State to 53 points or less both times out. Look for another slower paced game that favors the Badgers, who are 4-1 ATS this season when the total is 119.5 or less. They are also 12-4 ATS if they turned the ball over five times or less the previous game. Lay the short number and take advantage of the public's mistake.
Play on: Wisconsin
DUNKEL
Villanova vs. Louisville
The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season and face a Louisville team that is just 1-3 ATS in neutral court games. Villanova is the underdog pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by only 1. Dunkel Pick: Villanova (+4 1/2). Here are all of today's early games (Note: I will publish the rest of the games later today).
Game 823-824: Minnesota vs. Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 65.450; Michigan State 72.206
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 7
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 6
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-6)
Game 825-826: Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 65.141; Wisconsin 69.146
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 4
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-1 1/2)
Game 831-832: Virginia Tech vs. North Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 65.751; North Carolina 76.426
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 12
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+12)
Game 833-834: Georgia Tech vs. Florida State
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 63.873; Florida State 66.405
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida State by 5
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+5)
Game 839-840: Kentucky vs. LSU
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 62.632; LSU 68.041
Dunkel Line: LSU by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: LSU by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-1 1/2)
Game 841-842: Mississippi State vs. South Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 61.460; South Carolina 67.243
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 6
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-1 1/2)
Game 851-852: Temple vs. Xavier
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 61.074; Xavier 67.578
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-4 1/2)
Game 855-856: Villanova vs. Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 72.566; Louisville 73.496
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 1
Vegas Line: Louisville by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (+4 1/2)
Game 859-860: Baylor vs. Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 60.252; Texas 67.150
Dunkel Line: Texas by 7
Vegas Line: Texas by 3
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-3)
Game 863-864: Buffalo vs. Ball State
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 54.588; Ball State 49.926
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 7
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+7)
Matt Fargo
Penn State vs. Purdue
Play: Penn State +7
Penn St. closed the season pretty impressively winning four of five games including a last second victory over Illinois in the second to last game of the season. The Nittany Lions lost at Iowa in overtime two days later but that can be attributed to a big time letdown spot. We don’t have that here as Penn St. easily took out Indiana on Thursday and while it is likely into the field of 65, another win over a quality opponent will not hurt. I am not solid on the quality of this Purdue team. The Boilermakers were a sexy pick to win the Big Ten this season after coming out of nowhere last year and returning virtually the entire team this season. They went 11-2 in the non-conference season with the losses coming against Duke and Oklahoma, nothing to be ashamed of, but a 0-2 in the conference season had people wondering. However the Boilermakers ran off six straight wins and were looking good to compete for the title. However, Purdue went 5-5 down the stretch including losses in three of its last four games and comes into this one with little momentum. Penn St. is a team that can be dangerous if its go to players are playing well. This season’s meetings are a perfect example. During Penn State’s 67-64 upset of the Boilermakers in January, guards Talor Battle and Stanley Pringle combined for 39 points. In a 61-47 loss in February however, Battle was held scoreless for the only time this season and Pringle totaled only five points. The two were a combined 2-of-16 from the field and 1-of-7 from three-point range. Penn State is 14-1 when Battle, Pringle and Jamelle Cornley all reach double figures. Play on neutral court teams that are revenging a loss against an opponent that is coming off a road loss scoring less than 60 points. This situation is 41-14 ATS (74.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 3* Penn St. Nittany Lions
Alex Smart
Memphis Grizzlies +11.5
Two teams the Memphis Grizzlies and the Boston Celtics are two sides that are at the opposite end of the performance and talent spectrum . The Celtics (49-16) after a hot run that saw them notch wins in 15 of 17 games, have looked a little wobbly of late, since their veteran star Kevin Garnett went down with a knee injury at Utah on February 19. The defending league champs have also been struggling with an array of nagging injuries to a lot of their bench and are off a 107-99 loss in South Florida to the Miami Heat last time out. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies looked horrendous in their last outing, vs a another injury riddled team , the Minnesota Wolves, losing by a lopsided 104-79 count. When looking at these two opponents, its pretty obvious on paper who is the superior team. But like the old saying goes, games are not played on paper , but on the hardwood. With that said, it must be noted that no professional team likes to be embarrassed, even a young team like the Grizzlies. With a chance of redmeption look for the men from Memphis to come out here and play this contest, like it was a championship game. Their superior opponents , short staffed and uninterested could find this contest a lot tougher than they would like.
It must be noted the Grizzlies are 11-0 ATS L/11 away vs the Boston Celtics and are 15-1-1 ATS overall in their L/17 getting points in this series.
Close your eyes plug your nose and just pull the trigger !
Play on the Grizzlies (Take the points)
LT Profits
Texas -3
The Baylor Bears are flying sky high after upsetting Kansas yesterday, but we feel the clock will strike midnight for Cinderella when they face a Texas Longhorns team tonight that has simply dominated them.
Besides, what made the upset yesterday even more shocking is the way that Baylor finished the season. After showing so much promise early in the year, Baylor is now 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 games, and that includes the miracle vs. the Jayhawks. Their defense has been terrible on the road, allowing 78.3 points per game on a generous 46.5 percent shooting, and we do not feel they will simply be able to outscore this Texas team here.
The Longhorns swept the season series, but that is actually nothing new as they have now gone an unbelievable 20-0 straight up vs. Baylor since the 2000-2001 season. This was supposed to be the year that the Bears ended that streak, yet Texas routed them by 16 points at Austin, and perhaps more impressively, they went into Baylor and prevailed by six points.
We see absolutely no reason why the Longhorns should not win this third meeting by at least six points at a neutral site.
Pick: Texas -3
Tom Freese
Cleveland Cavaliers at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is 40-17 ATS their last 57 games as favorites and they are 13-3 ATS when playing with no rest. The Cavaliers are 12-3 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game and they are 10-2 ATS on Friday. Sacramento is 8-19 ATS their last 27 home games and they are 5-12 ATS as home dogs. The Kings are 8-23 ATS vs. Eastern Conference foes and the home team in this series is 2-6 ATS the last 8 meetings. PLAY ON CLEVELAND -
Teddy Covers
Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards
PICK: Orlando Magic
Washington is fairly typical of most last place teams at this time of the year. When the Wizards have something that sparks them – like Barack Obama’s visit to the Verizon Center – they are capable of stepping up, bringing energy, and playing a good game. That’s exactly how they beat the Bulls by 23 in that contest. But without some sort of obvious spark, interim head coach Ed Tapscott has no way to motivate his squad, as evidenced by Washington’s other recent home games: a 31 point loss to San Antonio, an eleven point loss to New Orleans, an eight point loss to Philadelphia and a nine point loss to Atlanta that was garbage time throughout the fourth quarter.
There is virtually no home court edge for the Wizards these days, playing in front of a half empty arena – we’re talking about a team that is 10-23 SU, 12-21 ATS at home this year, with no signs of improvement. Washington’s defensive effort is atrocious; their ball movement stinks and they aren’t working hard on the boards – this is, for all practical purposes, a ‘dead’ team here in March. The Magic have won the previous three meetings with the Wizards by a combined 49 points. Expect Dwight Howard to dominate the paint and the Magic’s perimeter shooters will rain three’s whenever they want to against this level of defense. 2* Take Orlando.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Detroit Pistons -1
Off a loss to New York , I like the Pistons to bounce back tonight against the ice cold Raptors, who have lost 6 in a row SU and ATS. The Pistons are expected to be without Rasheed Wallace but it won't matter and odds makers have taken that injury into too much consideration with this line. Plays against home teams where the line is +3 to -3; cold team failing to cover the spread in 8 or more of their last 10, well rested team - playing 6 or less games in 14 days are 40-15 ATS since 1996. In addition, Toronto is 1-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season and 5-17 ATS in March games over the last 2 seasons. Take Detroit .
Tom Stryker
MEMPHIS (-) over Houston
Memphis looked awful in its 51-41 home win over Tulane yesterday. Tigers head coach John Calipari was happy his troops were able to play well on the defensive end of the floor and walk away with the ugly victory. Without question, that dismal performance will serve as a wake-up call for Memphis. The Tigers have quietly won 23 straight and they'll come out with a little more attitude this afternoon. Let's take a look inside the numbers.
Coach Calipari's kids faced Houston twice this season and walked away with a pair of impressive 83-68 and 69-60 victories. Nothing I have indicates that the Cougars can make a game out of this one. Technically speaking, double-digit home favorites in conference tournament action are a reliable 32-22 ATS matched up against an opponent that enters off a SU and ATS win. If our host is matched up against a foe that is seeded fifth or higher, this situation improves to a reliable 24-14 ATS!
Off three consecutive wins over SMU (twice) and Texas El Paso, Houston will take a serious step up in class when it faces Memphis. Surprisingly, as an underdog with momentum coming off three or more straight up wins, the Cougars have lost their growl posting a woeful 11-19-2 ATS mark including a stunning 0-11 SU and 2-8-1 ATS mark in their last 11 in conference play.
It's rare to see the Tigers play poorly in two consecutive games at FedEx Forum. Coach Calipari and the boys escaped yesterday with a victory over the Green Wave. This one will come much easier. Take Memphis.