Friday Service Plays

LT Profits

Dayton +8.5

The West Virginia Mountaineers may come out of the powerful Big East, but they cannot sleep on this very good Dayton Flyers team here that is very capable of an upset.

Dayton is a very good 26-7 straight up this season, and while they went undefeated at home, they still have a winning 8-7 record on the road and at neutral sites. Their defense makes them a dangerous out in this tournament, as the Flyers are limiting their opponents to just 39.7 percent shooting from the field this season, and they are in the top 50 in the entire country in both defensive two-point percentage (44.5) and in defensive three-point percentage (31.7).

That may be the key to this contest,, as West Virginia has had some offensive lapses this season, which is the main reason for their mediocre 23-11 record. Sure, they played a brutal Big East schedule, but they also lost to such non-NCAA Tournament teams as Cincinnati, Davidson and Kentucky, and this Dayton defense they are facing here is actually statistically better then those clubs.

West Virginia has relied on great three-point shooting in recent years, but they rank just 211 in the country from beyond the arc this season at 33.1 percent, so we do not see them pulling away from the pesky Flyers here. Take these big points on a potential upset.

Pick: Dayton +8.5

Matt Fargo

Temple vs. Arizona State
Play: Arizona State -5.5

It has been six years since Arizona St. last made a trip to the NCAA tournament and it is not going to go out early as this team has the makeup of making a big run. It is obviously one game at a time but the Sun Devils got a very good draw in the South Region. A win here likely sets up a game against Syracuse and it is anyone’s guess how the Orange are going to react after their marathon trip to through the Big East Tournament. A possible showdown with Oklahoma looms in the Sweet 16 but first things first and that is taking out a Temple team what won the Atlantic Ten Tournament and likely would not be here if not for that. Arizona St. players obviously have no experience on this stage but that should not be a detriment. The Sun Devils head coach Herb Sendek has plenty of experience from his days at NC State and Miami Ohio where he guided the Wolfpack and RedHawks to six tournament appearances, going 6-6 and most importantly, 5-1 in first round games. The Sun Devils went 9-5 against this year's NCAA field and Sendek said he thinks that's enough to overcome their lack of postseason experience. Arizona St. has a very important asset to be successful in the tournament and that is strengths both inside and outside. It has the very versatile James Harden, who will make many first-team All-America lists, as well as the nation's most accurate shooter in Jeff Pendergraph. Both teams put up solid numbers in their conference runs and Temple is no doubt a very hot team right now. However, comparing the Atlantic Ten to the Pac Ten is like comparing a Jeep to a Hummer. It is nice and efficient but not nearly as strong. The Pac Ten is ranked in the top three conferences while the Atlantic Ten is well below that, coming in anywhere between 8th and 10th, in the same line as the MVC and C-USA who each got just one team into the tournament. The Sun Devils have advantages in two key areas and those are free throw shooting and assist/turnover ratio. Those margins are even bigger when looking at the last five games of each team and that is with Temple winning all five of those. The Owls win over Xavier was a solid win but you have to go all the way back to December to see their last quality win and hat was a victory over Tennessee, arguably one of the bigger disappointments in the country this season. Those were the only two wins over tournament teams as they went 0-4 in the other games against other teams in the field. For the season, Arizona St. went 10-6 against the nation’s top 50 including 4-2 against the top 25 while Temple went just 2-4 against the top 50 and 1-4 against the top 25. Arizona St. is 8-2 ATS this season when coming off a non-cover and it falls into a solid situation. Play on teams from the six major conferences when playing against a team not from those six conferences when favored between 3.5 and 9.5 points and coming off a conference loss. These play-on teams are 45-17 ATS over the last 12 years including a 17-5 ATS mark over the last five years. The Sun Devils will prove to be too much for the Owls on Friday. 3* Arizona St. Sun Devils

John Ryan

Temple vs. Arizona State
Play: Under 124

Ai Simulator 3* graded play Under Temple/Arizona State slated to start at 2:45 EST. AiS shows a 76% probability that 120 or fewer points will be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 32-14 UNDER for 69% winners since 1997. Play under with all teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games and with the game taking place on Friday nights. Friday is an important night of the week as many times only the NEC and IVY League teams are competing, so it becomes rare, even in Tournament season that a Friday condition would apply to a system. Regardless of the Conference, these teams qualify for this system and under scores the grading from the AiS. Both teams can run offense out of transition, but both teams will defend their defensive glass well. This minimizes second chance opportunities for each team. AiS shows a 76% probability that Temple will shoot between 40 and 46%. Note that ASU is 12-1 UNDER (+10.9 Units) in road games when their opponents make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Temple is a solid 15-4 UNDER (+10.6 Units) when playing against a good team sporting a win percentage of 60% to 80% over the last 2 seasons; 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in road games versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. ASU is also in a powerful series of UNDER roles noting they are 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. Take the UNDER.

Cajun Sports

Cornell vs. Missouri
Play: Missouri -12.5

Cornell’s opening round draw is not a good one when it comes to style of play and the ability to enforce your will onto that opponent. Cornell did a good job against Ivy League competition with their half-court sets and draining three-pointers but Missouri plays a very intense defensive scheme that will not allow the Big Red to get those uncontested treys. The key in this contest is not only the high pressure style of the Tigers it’s also the fact they have the athletes to make them work. Cornell may have the ability to make it close early on but Missouri’s intensity and deep bench will eventually wear down and overwhelm the Big Red in today’s game. Cornell is in a negative situation which is not good news for their backers as they are 0-6 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Missouri on the other hand has found success against teams that do not turn the ball over, going 11-1 ATS versus teams committing <=14 turnovers per game after 15+ games this season. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers the last 2 seasons. A solid defensive team that doesn’t turn the ball over and can score sounds like the perfect combination for an easy win and cover for the Tigers on Friday. A check of the database has uncovered a CBB system that tells us to Play ON CBB Neutral court teams as a favorite or pick after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers against an opponent after a game committing 8 or less turnovers, 29-9 ATS the last five seasons. It may be double-digits but that will not matter in the end as Missouri rolls past the Cornell Big Red and advances to the next round of the tournament.

Graded Selection: 2* Missouri Tigers 78 Cornel Big Red 56

Craig Trapp

Wisconsin vs. Florida State
Play: Florida State -2.5

Craig has this ACC and Big Ten Clash as a key game of the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Not necessarily because one of these teams can win it all but more to see how the two conferences do against each other. Take a look at records and trends below!

Team records:

Wisconsin: 19-12 SU, 12-16-1 ATS

Florida State: 25-9 SU, 18-9-1 ATS

Wisconsin most recently:

When playing on Friday are 9-1

Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

After a loss are 5-5

Florida State most recently:

When playing on Friday are 6-4

Florida State is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games

After a loss are 9-1

Sitting your conference power rankings before the NCAA Tournament can be a key indicator for the both bracket winners and ATS winners. Craig had the ACC ranked #2 and the Big Ten as #4. How do we use this to help pick winners. Easy in this match up Craig had the game as -6 FSU and even at that number still liked FSU. Pretty simple in this game Tony Douglas is the best scoring guard in the tournament and Wisconsin has not faced anybody nearly as good as him all year. Last loss to Ohio State the badgers struggled to stop Turner which is not as good as Douglas. This game might get out of hand early and with the style of Wisconsin might be trouble for them coming back. This spread is a gift and love it. SCORE FSU 72 - WISC 63

Nelly

North Dakota State + over Kansas

Kansas has lost two of the last three games, both to mediocre teams and the Jayhawks may be one of the more overrated #3 seeds in recent years. Kansas had a great tournament run last year to take the championship but this is a completely different team. The Jayhawks benefited from a weak conference schedule and got its biggest win with Blake Griffin out of the lineup. In non-conference play Kansas was very ordinary and the overall strength of the Big 12 appeared down this year. Kansas was a strong ATS team this season but that will translate into an inflated line in this opening match-up. It might be tough for Kansas to get a high level of energy for this early game and the Metrodome will be filled with North Dakota State fans as the Bison make their first NCAA tournament appearance. North Dakota State plays very tough defense and can be a great scoring team with a veteran lineup that is battle tested. North Dakota State lost by just four at USC and played close at Minnesota this season and in the last two years owns wins over Marquette and Wisconsin so this is a team that can compete with the big boys. The favorable location should help energize a crowd that will pull for the underdog. Prior to last year's great run the Jayhawks have had several early exits from the NCAA tournament and this could be a tough game for Kansas.

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Toronto

Note: When the Raptors play host to the Bobcats north of the border tonight they will do so knowing they are 5-0 SU and ATS in their franchise history in this series when Charlotte takes the court off back-to-back wins. With the Bobbies off 16 and 26-point wins, the latter at Charlotte against Toronto this past Monday, look for Toronto to get their revenge here tonight.

Jimmy The Moose

Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder

Utah comes into this one 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games. The Jazz are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite between 5.0-10.5 points. In their last 7 vs. a Northwest opponent they are 2-5 ATS. The Thunder are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as a home dog. In their last 16 games following an ATS loss they are 14-2 at the window. Oklahoma City is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. a Western Conference opponent. In their last 54 games overall they are 36-17-1 ATS. Utah is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 trips to Oklahoma. The Thunder are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Play on the Oklahoma City Thunder +.

Larry Ness

Cornell at Missouri
Prediction: Missouri

It was a MAJOR story in the Ivy League when Cornell ended 20 years of domination by Penn and Princeton (one or the other had represented the Ivy League in every NCAA tourney from 1989 through 2007) by taking last year's Ivy League title with a 14-0 record. The Big Red are back again this year, making them the loop's first repeat winner (other than Penn or Princeton) since Dartmouth turned the trick in 1958 and '59. Cornell went in 11-3 the Ivy League this year (21-9 overall), despite the fact that Adam Gore (10.2 PPG / 41.5 percent on threes) missed the entire season and his backcourt partner Louis Dale didn't get into the lineup until Dec 6. Dale averaged 13.5 PPG and 4.3 RPG, almost matching his numbers of the previous two seasons (13.3-4.5 and 13.7-4.4) The 6-6 Wittman (18.5-3.6-2.7) was the team's best player this season, joined in the frontcourt by the 7-0 Foote (11.8-7.1) and the 6-7 Tyler (6.7-4.6). Freshman guard Wroblewski (6.7-2.3) has been starting alongside of Dale and junior guard Reeves (9.1) has been the first player off the bench. This team can score, averaging 74.1 PPG and shoots 47.8 percent from the floor (41.5 on threes, which ranks third in the nation). Do the Big Red have a chance against Missouri? Possibly, as the Tigers must be "full of themselves" after capturing the school's first Big 12 tourney title but the danger for Cornell backers is that Missouri only knows how to play one way. Mike Anderson claimed he had the talent and depth this year to fully implement his mentor's (Nolan Richardson) "40 Minutes of Hell" and he wa right. The Tigers went unbeaten in Columbia (owned the nation's largest margin of victory in home games) and as just mentioned, won the Big 12 tourney title (3-0 ATS) with wins over Texas Tech by 21, Oklahoma St by eight (off its upset of Oklahoma) and Baylor by 13 (after the Bears had beaten BOTH Kansas and Texas). The 6-8 Carroll (16.8-7.3) and the 6-9 Lyons (14.2-6.0) have both been terrific, while the 6-7 Lawrence (9.0) leads a group of seven other players all getting 12 minutes or more of playing time (two other players just dropped under 10 MPG of action, late in the season). Tiller (7.9-3.3-3.6) and Taylor (6.5-3.1-3.5) have shared the PG duties and the Tigers average 81.1 PPG on 47.2 percent shooting. Mike Anderson's up-tempo and high-pressure style (fueled by a terrific group of athletes) will likely limit Cornell's ability to run its half-court offense and to get those "open looks" its three-point shooters need. It's not a FLUKE that Ivy League reps have failed to 'cover' in NINE of their last 10 first round games. Lay it with the Tigers.

Lee Kostroski

Cleveland State @ Wake Forest
PICK: Cleveland State

Many of the so called “upsets” in the NCAA tournament are mainly because of match ups. The little guy, so to speak, matches up nicely vs. their opponent from a major conference. That is the case here. In fact, CSU is a bad match up for a young Wake team.

First of all, Wake is still a young team with a number of freshman and sophomores playing key roles. In fact, the Demon Deacon squad does not have a senior that averages more than 11 minutes per game. Because of that, this team has been inconsistent all year long. They look like world beaters one game and then slip up against a sub par opponent the next. We like fading those teams at this time of year especially when laying significant points against a solid opponent.

Cleveland State is a senior laden team with a very good back court. The Vikings have five seniors that average more than 20 minutes per game. Senior guards Cedric Jackson & DAundray Brown are experienced players who can create on offense and wreak havoc on defense. That’s not a good mix for Wake. Why? Because this young Demon Deacon team is really poor at protecting the ball. They average almost 16 turnovers per game (297th nationally) with a turnover rate of 20.3% which ranks them near the bottom of Division 1A. Because of that, Wake’s assist to turnover ratio is a bad 0.844. That plays right into CSU’s hands as their pressure defense is among the best nationally. The cause opponents to turn the ball over a whopping 24% of the time which is 11th in the country. The Vikings, and their senior guards, are very good at protecting the ball and limiting turnovers. Those two things combined, tell us CSU will get more possessions than Wake here making it tough for the Deacs to cover this number.

Cleveland State played a tough non-conference schedule which proved they can play with the big boys. The played @ West Virginia, @ Kansas State and @ Washington and played each fairly tight. This team won @ Syracuse and played Butler to the wire three times winning one and losing the other two by 2 points each. Wake, on the other hand, struggled their final six games playing close with a number of teams they should have handled easily. It culminated in a 9-point loss to Maryland in the ACC tournament. We have no doubt that CSU keeps this one close and we have an 8-point cushion in our favor. Take the points here.

Teddy Covers

North Dakota State @ Kansas
PICK: Kansas

Kansas hasn’t gotten a lick of respect from the betting markets all year. In game after game the wiseguys played against the Jayhawks; in game after game the wiseguys lost money. That’s how the Jayhawks – the team that won the national title last year; the team that won the Big 12 this year; a public team if there ever was one – finished as the second best major conference pointspread team in the country, a near impossible task.

Well, the wiseguys are doing it again, and this time, they have the TV talking heads agreeing with them. All the pundits are claiming that North Dakota State is going to give Kansas a tough game. We saw the Bison play Minnesota earlier this year and the crowd was half North Dakota State supporters. And there’s no question that North Dakota State will have plenty of fans making the relatively short trip to Minneapolis for this one. But let’s not forget how well Kansas travels either. The Jayhawks played in Vegas last year and it was a virtual home game for them. The trip from Lawrence to Minneapolis isn’t that much further than the trip for North Dakota State supporters. Kansas is going to enjoy a raucous crowd of their own, every bit as vocal as the Bisons supporters.

North Dakota State played one game against an NCAA tournament team this year – at Minnesota. They lost that game by 14. In their previous lined game, last year at Cal, they also lost by 14 against a .500 Cal squad. The Summit League was one of the weakest conferences in all of college basketball this year. Yes, the Bison have a starting five of seniors, but remember, these guys have never played in a game of this magnitude in their lives. They are not Kansas in terms of size, speed , poise or experience.

Sherron Collins in the backcourt and Cole Aldrich in the frontcourt have the potential to be impact players at the next level, far superior than anybody North Dakota State has faced this year. The only under-rated, undervalued team on this floor is the cheaply priced favorite. Take Kansas.

Karl Garrett

Morehead State vs. LOUISVILLE -21 - at Dayton, OH

After watching both number one seeds destroy the competition yesterday, I have a feeling Louisville will follow suit tonight with a destruction of Morehead State.

The Eagles won the play-in game on Tuesday, but only netted 58-points in doing so. In fact, Morehead has been in the 60's or less in 3 in a row, and 5 of their last 6.

I have a feeling State is going to have a very hard time keeping pace with this Louisville team.

Don't be surprised if Louisville ends this game in triple-digits the way # 1's Connecticut, and North Carolina did yesterday.

The Redbirds have won 10 straight, and they have covered their last 4, and 8 of their last 10.

Pitino's team is playing with an energy level that will see them in Detroit before long.

Go right ahead and lay this big number, as the 'Ville makes their statement on Friday night.

4♦ LOUISVILLE

Michael Cannon

USC -2' vs. Boston College, at Minneapolis, MN

I started off March Mayhem with the 4-0 sweep yesterday for my paying clients, and also delivered the 2-0 sweep with my free plays including an outright winner on Western Kentucky! I'm now on a 9-2 run with my last 11 overall free plays.

Take Usc as the small chalk over Boston College in the Midwest Regional.

The Trojans come into this game riding a five-game SUATS winning streak and captured the Pac-10 crown by knocking off Arizona State on Saturday.

I like the job coach Tim Floyd has done with this group, and he should be able to get some mismatches with 6-6 power forward Demar DeRozan, who averaged 21 ppg in the conference tournament.

Boston College is just 4-5 SUATS in its last nine overall and I don’t see them getting things done over the red-hot Trojans.

Usc is on ATS streaks of 5-0 overall, 5-0 on Fridays, 4-1 in neutral-site games and 5-1 as a favorite.

Take Usc minus the small number as they grab the win and cover over Boston College.

3♦ USC

Dayton vs. West Virginia -9, at Minneapolis, MN

I started off March Mayhem with the 4-0 sweep yesterday for my paying clients, and also delivered the 2-0 sweep with my free plays including an outright winner on Western Kentucky! I'm now on a 9-2 run with my last 11 overall free plays.

Take West Virginia minus the points over Dayton in the Midwest Regional.

Tough matchup for Dayton, who has only two players averaging double-digits in scoring. The Flyers play good defense, but West Virginia plays it even better, surrendering only 41.9 percent shooting from the field playing in the rugged Big East conference.

The Mountaineers are a well-balanced offensive team that gets good production from Devin Ebanks and Darryl Bryant. Da’Sean Butler and Alex Ruoff are the scoring leaders and it’s going to be tough for Dayton to hold West Virginia in check.

Dayton went just 2-3 SU in its final five games and 4-4 ATS in its last eight overall.

West Virginia is on ATS runs of 8-1-1 in The Big Dance, 6-1 after a non-cover, 5-2 on Fridays and 4-0 after a SU loss.

Take West Virginia minus the points as they grab the win and cover.

4♦ WEST VIRGINIA

Sports Gambling Hotline

Portland State +10' vs. XAVIER - at Boise, ID

Take the points tonight in Boise, as Portland State should get a little boost from the "home" crowd in their game versus Xavier.

The Vikings have won their last 6, and 8 of their last 10 games, and do catch the "X"-Men in a bit of a road funk.

Including the Atlantic 10 tournament, Xavier went just 2-5 straight up their last 7 away from the friendly Cintas Center. Over their last last dozen games, the Musketeers went just 4-6-2 against the spread, so you can see why we are reluctant to lay the double-digits with Xavier in this spot.

Xavier is an eastern time zone school playing far, far, away from their home, and the Vikings figure to have a few fans in the seats in this game.

The longer Portland State can hang around the tougher it is going to be for Xavier to get on top, and stay on top of this number.

Play on Portland State do stay inside of this roomy impost.

3♦ PORTLAND STATE