Matt Rivers
For Friday take the points with Stephen F. Austin
Syracuse is a very dangerous team as they have guys in Andy Rautins and Eric Devendorf who are certainly not afraid to bomb away from three and a point guard in Jonny Flynn who just proved his worth in that unreal Big East Tournament run.
But with the above said Jim Boeheim's club struggled too much this season for me to fully believe they have all of a sudden found themselves and some magic like the team with Gerry McNamara and Carmelo Anthony. This Syracuse team may also be a three seed in the tournament but they are not close to what that National Championship team had and I really wouldn't be all that surprised if the Orange crapped on themselves here after playing so much as the underdog in the Garden last week.
'Cuse was playing on adrenaline last week after that six overtime win against UCONN and rose to the occasion in the upset victory against West Virginia and the first half against Louisville. But they did collapse a bit in the second half against the Cardinals and now will not be feeling as free and comfortable as they are no longer playing with house money. In fact today's game represents the exact opposite approach as the Orange are now the hunted and not the hunter which will supply a nice amount of extra pressure.
The Lumberjacks are clearly not the best team on the floor today and should lose but to get about a dozen points here down in Miami is enough for me. Stephen F. Austin has won eight in a row, beat Drake earlier in the season and destroyed an ok Austin Peay team, 93-54. Danny Kaspar's group also dominated the Southland Conference at 13-3 and got lucky playing a team that is truly not a three seed. In fact the Orange really weren't too far off of that bubble before the postseason began.
I like Boeheim's crew when getting numbers because they do have some bite but in this spot I just do not see them cashing the ticket as they have too many negative's in their corner for them to cover this hefty price.
Jake Timlin
Possible upset win for the Owls here I look for Temple plus the points to earn the cash today. I mean given that I just can’t trust Arizona State who is traveling across the country and doing so just days removed from playing in the PAC 10 title games I say go with Temple. A Temple team that is red hot having won last 5 games and 10 of their last 12 games. Meanwhile, for the Owls they won’t have the best player on the floor they will enjoy a more balanced team then the Sun Devils as Christmas now has a supporting case around him this season. Plus, given the slow tempo that both team will enjoy playing getting any sort of points becomes valuable. So in game that will be close throughout I say take the Owls plus the points as they stay inside the number.
PICK: Temple Owls
Craig Davis
Here we go again on the free play run. With two easy winners on the Citadel and Western Kentucky, that makes five straight plays without a loss and we’ll give you TWO MORE solid free play winners, just to show you what I’m capable of.
North Dakota State might not seem like a sexy pick, but I DO know how much talent they have and they’re capable of playing with any of the mid-majors that come their way, as evidenced by a nice nine-point win over Wisconsin Milwaukee earlier in the year. The good news for the Bison is the fact this game is being played in Minneapolis… a closer journey for Bison fans than it is for Jayhawks fans. And although NDSU isn’t as battle-tested as Kansas, they did their fair share of post-season posturing, coming back from nine down to beat Oral Roberts in the conference tourney… a team that had won four straight regular season conference titles. The Bison ended the season ranked in the top 25 nationally in 3-point percentage (second), field goal percentage (fifth), scoring offense (eighth), scoring margin (11th), fewest turnovers per game (11th) and assist-to-turnover ratio (13th). Impressive, even for a small school. Kansas wins, but the Bison keep it close.
As for Tennessee, I think this might be the most exciting game of the second day to watch because there will be athletes galore all over the floor for both teams. Tennessee will be making its fourth straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament, all under coach Bruce Pearl, but this will be their lowest seed of all the appearances. That, in itself, will motivate the talented Vols to make a statement in round one. Taking nothing away from Oklahoma State, because they had a tremendous second half of the season, but I just don’t believe they have the shooters to stay with Tennessee with a full 40 minutes. The difference in this game could be the step-back ability of 6-9 forward Wayne Chism. A forward by nature, he has all of a sudden developed a three-point game and that could cause trouble inside if OSU is forced to come out and guard him. Vols win and cover this afternoon to make it two more free play winners.
4♦ NORTH DAKOTA STATE
2♦ TENNESSEE
SPORTS ADVISORS
MIDWEST REGION
(at Minneapolis)
(14) North Dakota St. (26-6, 1-1 ATS) vs. (3) Kansas (25-7, 18-7-1 ATS)
Kansas fell to Baylor on March 12 in the Big 12 quarterfinals, losing 71-64 as eight-point favorites. Prior to that setback, the Jayhawks won six of their last seven regular-season contests (5-1-1 ATS), with their only blemish being a shocking 84-65 road loss at Texas Tech as 10-point favorites.
The Bison are the first-ever team from North Dakota to reach the NCAA Tournament, and for their effort they get the defending national champions. North Dakota State won its final seven games (1-1 ATS in lined action), including a 66-64 victory over Oakland in the Summit League championship game on March 10. The Bison played two NCAA-tourney teams this season, losing at Minnesota in November 90-76 and falling at Southern Cal 61-57 on Dec. 20.
While this is the first Tournament appearance for the Bison, Kansas is in the Big Dance for the 20th consecutive season, the second-longest ongoing streak behind Arizona.
The Bison are 6-2 ATS in their last eight lined games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven non-conference lined contests. Kansas is on ATS streaks of 22-8-1 overall, 13-6 in non-conference action, 36-15-1 against teams with winning records and 4-0 after a straight-up loss, and the Jayhawks went 5-1 ATS en route to winning the national title last season.
Favorites went 12-4 SU but 7-9 ATS in Thursday’s opening-round NCAA Tournament action. Additionally, double-digit favorites were 7-0 SU, but only 3-4 ATS.
For NDSU, the under is on runs of 5-1-1 overall, 4-0 in neutral-site games and 4-1-1 in non-conference action. Kansas is on “under” streaks of 8-0 in NCAA Tournament action, 7-1 in neutral-site games, 9-4 overall and 7-3 with them as a favorite.
Lastly, the over went 10-6 in Thursday’s first-round tourney action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(11) Dayton (26-7, 13-15 ATS) vs. (6) West Virginia (23-11, 15-16 ATS)
Dayton grabbed one of the coveted at-large bids into the NCAA Tournament despite losing to Duquesne 77-66 a week ago in the Atlantic 10 conference semifinals as 2½-point favorites. The Flyers struggled late in the season, going just 2-3 (3-2 ATS) in their final five games and went 4-4 ATS in their last eight overall.
West Virginia lost in overtime to Syracuse in the Big East semifinals, falling 74-69 as a 6½-point chalk. The Mountaineers went 7-3 (6-4 ATS) in their final 10 games, including a 74-60 win over Pitt as a 4½-point underdog in the conference tournament quarterfinals.
The Mountaineers reached the Sweet 16 in last season’s Tournament, falling in overtime to Xavier 79-75 as 1½-point favorites. West Virginia has advanced past the opening weekend in each of its last three Tournament appearances since 2005, going 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS. Dayton’s last NCAA Tournament appearance was in 2004, when it lost to DePaul in the first round. The Flyers won two NIT games last season before falling to eventual NIT champion Ohio State, 74-63 as a 7½-point road pup.
Dayton is on ATS runs of 7-3 against teams with winning records, 4-1 against Big East teams, 4-1 as a ‘dog and 4-0 after a straight-up loss. West Virginia is on positive ATS streaks of 8-1-1 in NCAA Tournament games, 6-1 after a non-cover, 5-2 on Fridays and 4-0 after a straight-up loss, but the Mountaineers are also on ATS slides of 5-11 against Atlantic 10 teams and 2-6 in non-conference games.
The Flyers are on “over” streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-1 at neutral venues, 5-2 as neutral-site ‘dogs and 4-0 when playing Big East teams. For the Mountaineers, the under is on runs of 7-2 overall, 9-3 as a favorite, 4-1 in neutral-site games and 5-1 after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WEST VIRGINIA
(10) USC (21-12, 17-14 ATS) vs. (7) Boston College (22-11, 15-13 ATS)
Boston College lost a heartbreaker in the ACC quarterfinals Friday, falling 66-65 to Duke but easily cashing as a 10-point underdog. The Eagles have followed up a five-game winning streak (4-1 ATS) by going just 4-5 SU and ATS in their last nine overall and alternated wins and losses in their final six regular-season games.
The Trojans punched their own ticket to the Big Dance with a 66-63 upset win over Arizona State in the Pac-10 championship game Saturday, cashing as two-point ‘dogs. Southern Cal has won five in a row (SU and ATS) and mounted a furious rally in the second half Saturday after trailing Arizona State by 15 at halftime.
The last time the Eagles were in the Tournament was 2007 when they lost to Georgetown 62-55 as 7½-point ‘dogs in the second round. USC advanced to the Sweet 16 of the Big Dance in 2007, but was knocked out in the opening round a year ago, falling 80-67 to Kansas State as three-point favorites.
USC is on ATS streaks of 5-0 overall, 5-0 on Fridays, 4-1 in neutral-site games and 5-1 as a favorite. Boston College is 22-8 ATS in its last 30 neutral-site contests, 5-0 ATS in its last five NCAA Tournament games and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 as a neutral-site pup.
The Trojans are riding “over” trends of 5-2 overall, 4-1 in the Tournament and 4-1 in non-conference action, but the under has been the play in 10 of USC’s last 14 neutral-site games and five straight against ACC squads. The Eagles have topped the total in 35 of 51 non-conference contests, but otherwise they are on “under” streaks of 6-0 overall, 12-2 as a neutral-site ‘dog and 4-0 in Tournament action as a ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON COLLEGE
(15) Robert Morris (24-10, 0-1 ATS) vs. (2) Michigan St. (26-6, 16-12-1 ATS)
Michigan State had a six-game winning streak snapped by Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament semifinals Saturday, losing 82-70 as an eight-point chalk. The Spartans went 13-3 SU (9-5-1 ATS) in road and neutral-site games this season, and prior to the loss to the Buckeyes, they had allowed an average of 56 points during their six-game streak.
Robert Morris reached their first NCAA Tournament in 17 years when they won the Northeast Conference title game, edging Mount St. Mary’s 48-46 on March 11 but coming up short as four-point favorites in its only lined game of the season. The Colonials enter this contest with a five-game winning streak, and they’ve held the opposition to 64 points or fewer in each of their last eight contests.
While this is Robert Morris’ first time in the Tournament since losing to UCLA in the first round in 1992, Michigan State is making its 12th consecutive Big Dance appearance, the fourth-longest active streak. Last year, the Spartans went 2-0 SU and ATS in wins over Temple and Pitt to get to the Sweet 16, where they got steamrolled by Memphis 92-74 as 5½-point ‘dogs. Under coach Tom Izzo, Michigan State is 26-10 SU in the Tournament, reaching four Final Fours, seven Sweet 16s and one national championship (2000).
Izzo’s Spartans are on ATS runs of 17-8-1 in NCAA Tournament games, 13-3-1 as a favorite in the Big Dance, 11-5 on Fridays, 9-0 after a straight-up loss and 5-0 after a non-cover.
The Colonials, who played only one lined game this season, has stayed under the total in four of their last five games on the board. Michigan State is on “under” streaks of 9-2 overall, 8-1 as a favorite, 15-7 after a straight-up loss and 7-3 after a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MICHIGAN STATE and UNDER
MIDWEST REGION
(at Miami, Fla.)
(12) Arizona (19-13, 18-13 ATS) vs. (5) Utah (24-9, 19-13 ATS)
Utah won the Mountain West tournament title Saturday with a 52-50 victory over San Diego State, cashing as a one-point favorite. The Utes have cranked up the defense lately, not allowing an opponent more than 58 points in their last four contests, all victories (3-1 ATS). Utah is on an 18-4 SU roll.
Arizona received the final at-large bid to the Tournament despite going just 1-5 SU (3-3 ATS) down the stretch. The Wildcats are coming off a 68-56 loss to rival Arizona State in the quarterfinals of the Pac-10 tournament March 12, failing to cover as 4½-point ‘dogs.
This is the Utes’ first trip back to the Big Dance since 2005, when they lost to Kentucky in the Sweet 16, 62-52 as 4½-point underdogs. Meanwhile, Arizona is playing in the NCAA Tournament for the 25th consecutive season, the longest such streak in the nation. However, the Wildcats didn’t get out of the opening round the last two years, losing 75-65 to West Virginia as two-point pups last year and falling 72-63 to Purdue as a three-point favorite in 2007.
These teams had a home-and-home series in 2004 and 2005 with the Wildcats taking both games, winning 67-62 but failing as a 14-point home chalk in 2004, then destroying the Utes 73-43 in Salt Lake City as a five-point favorite in 2005.
Arizona is riding several positive ATS trends, including 9-4 overall, 12-5 after a straight-up loss, 6-2 in non-conference games, 6-2 in NCAA Tournament games and 6-0 after a non-cover. Utah is on ATS runs of 5-1 in neutral-site contests and 7-3 following a straight-up win.
The ‘Cats have topped the total in seven of nine overall, five of six Tournament games, four straight non-conference contests and five straight after a non-cover. On the flip side, the Utes are on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 4-0 in neutral-site games, 9-3 on Fridays and 5-0 after a straight-up win.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
(13) Cleveland St. (25-10, 18-12 ATS) vs. (4) Wake Forest (24-6, 15-11 ATS)
Cleveland State pulled off the Horizon League tournament shocker on March 10, upsetting regular-season champ Butler 57-54 as 6½-point underdogs to get the automatic ticket to the Big Dance. The Vikings have won four straight (2-2 ATS) and 12 of their last 14.
Wake Forest was bounced in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament on Friday, losing 75-64 to Maryland as a six-point favorite, snapping a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS). The Demon Deacons started the season 16-0 and were the last Division I team to taste defeat.
The Demon Deacons are back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2005 when they lost to West Virginia in the second round. This is Cleveland State’s first Big Dance appearance since its Cinderella run in 1986 when it lost to David Robinson and Navy in the Sweet 16.
The Vikings are on positive ATS runs of 20-7 after an ATS win, 24-10 after a straight-up win, 5-1 in non-conference action and 4-0 as an underdog. Wake Forest is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a favorite, but the Deacons have failed to cover in eight straight NCAA Tournament games and they’re 6-22 ATS in their last 28 on a neutral court and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 as a neutral-site favorite.
Cleveland State has stayed under the total in five of its last six as a ‘dog and seven of 10 non-conference games, but the Vikings have gone over the total in six of eight neutral-site contests. Wake Forest has stayed under the total in four of five neutral-site games, but otherwise is on “over” runs of 7-3 overall, 9-4 after a non-cover and 4-1 in the Big Dance.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND STATE
MIDWEST REGION
(at Dayton, Ohio)
(16) Morehead State (20-15, 19-12 ATS) vs. (1) Louisville (28-5, 21-12 ATS)
Louisville comes in as the Tournament’s top overall seed after winning 10 straight (8-2 ATS) to close the season, including three impressive victories to claim the Big East Conference tournament last weekend in Madison Square Garden. The Cardinals, who also won the Big East regular-season title, beat Syracuse in Saturday’s tourney finale, winning 76-66 as 7½-point favorites.
Morehead State won the play-in game Tuesday, beating Alabama State 58-43 as a 2½-point favorite, the Eagles’ fourth consecutive SU and ATS victory. Morehead State earned the Ohio Valley Conference’s automatic bid by beating Austin Peay 67-65 in overtime back on March 7 as a one-point underdog.
Louisville reached the regional final last season, falling to North Carolina in its bid for the Final Four. The Cardinals are 57-36 in 34 Tournament outings, qualifying for this even each of the last three years, and coach Rick Pitino owns a 35-12 SU Tournament record while coaching Providence, Kentucky and Louisville. Morehead State’s last Big Dance showing came in 1984, when it ironically lost to Louisville in the first round.
These teams opened the season against each other on Nov. 22, with Louisville rolling to a 79-41 victory as a 29½-point favorite. The Cardinals have won all three head-to-head showdowns this decade (2-1 ATS), all in Kentucky, with margins of victory of 38, 24 and 64 points dating back to 2004.
Morehead State is just 6-25-4 ATS in its last 35 non-conference games and 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog of 13 points or more, but the Eagles are on ATS runs of 6-1 as a ‘dog, 4-0 in neutral-site games and 17-5 against teams with a winning record.
The Cardinals are on positive ATS streaks of 38-17-1 overall, 7-2 as a chalk, 6-0-1 as a NCAA Tournament favorite and 23-9 after a spread-cover. Also, including Thursday’s action, No. 1 seed are 5-1 ATS in first-round action since the start of last year’s Big Dance.
For the Eagles, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall, 7-3 as a ‘dog and 4-0 after a spread-cover. Louisville is riding “under” streaks of 12-5-1 in non-conference action, 4-1 on neutral courts and 6-1-1 as a neutral-site favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE and UNDER
(9) Siena (26-7, 14-15-1 ATS) vs. (8) Ohio State (22-10, 17-11 ATS)
Ohio State got an at-large invite to the Big Dance thanks to a late-season surge that saw the Buckeyes win four of their final five games SU and ATS. The lone setback came in Sunday’s Big Ten tournament championship game, as Ohio State fell to Purdue 65-61 but cashed as a 5½-point underdog. The Buckeyes won the NIT postseason tournament a season ago after reaching the 2007 NCAA title game, losing to Florida.
Siena lost just once in its last nine games (5-4 ATS) en route to the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament title and the league’s automatic bid into the Big Dance. The Saints rallied past Niagara 77-70 in the conference title game, cashing as 3 ½-point favorites on their home court.
Ohio State is 37-19 SU in 20 all-time trips to the Big Dance. Siena is making its fifth appearance in the NCAA Tournament. Last year, the Saints upset Vanderbilt 83-62 as a 6½-point underdog in the opening round before falling to Villanova 84-72 as a 5½-point pup.
Siena is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 neutral-site games, but it is 4-1 in its last five non-conference games and 16-7 in its last 23 as a pup. Ohio State is on ATS slides of 3-9 in the NCAA Tournament overall and 2-8 as a Tournament favorite, but the Buckeyes enjoy positive pointspread runs of 12-3 in non-conference games, 6-2 as a favorite and 6-0 in neutral-site contests.
For the Saints, the over is on runs of 9-4 overall, 4-0 as a ‘dog, 4-1 in non-conference games and 8-3 after a straight-up win. Ohio State has gone over the total in four straight Touranment games as a favorite and five of six NCAA games overall, but the under has been the play in five of the Buckeyes’ last six overall and 11 of their last 15 Friday outings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
SOUTH REGION
(at Miami, Fla.)
(14) Stephen F. Austin (23-7, 1-0 ATS) vs. (3) Syracuse (26-9, 17-14 ATS)
Syracuse seven-game SU and ATS winning streak came to an end in Saturday’s Big East tournament finals as it got lost 76-66 to Louisville as a 7 ½-point underdog. The Orange got to the championship game thanks to a dramatic six-overtime, 127-117 win over UConn in the Big East quarterfinals as a 5½-point underdog, followed by another overtime win, this one a 74-69 upset of West Virginia as a 6 ½-point pup.
Syracuse is back in the Big Dance for the first time since 2006, when it followed up a run to the Big East tournament title by getting bounced in the first round by Texas A&M. The Orange are 40-24 in 25 Tournament appearances under coach Jim Boeheim.
Winners of eight in a row (1-0 ATS), Stephen F. Austin earned its first NCAA Tournament berth by winning the Southland Conference’s postseason tournament with a 68-57 win over Texas-San Antonio on Sunday, cashing as eight-point favorites in its only lined game this year. The Lumberjacks are known for their defense, having held 18 consecutive opponents to 67 points or fewer, including giving up 60 or less 12 times during this stretch.
Stephen F. Austin faced just three marquee squads this year – Texas A&M, Arkansas and Texas Tech, losing those three contests by respective margins of seven, 16 and 14 points.
The Orangemen are on ATS runs of 5-2 in neutral-site games, 4-0 as a favorite and 5-1 against teams with winning records. Syracuse is also riding “over” streaks of 5-0 overall, 7-2 as a favorite, 7-0 in neutral-site contests and 5-2 as a neutral-site favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SYRACUSE
(11) Temple (22-11, 18-11-1 ATS) vs. (6) Arizona State (24-9, 18-11 ATS)
Arizona State dropped three of four (2-2 ATS) to close the regular season, but reached the finals of the Pac-10 tournament Saturday before losing to USC 66-63 as a two-point underdog. The Sun Devils, who blew a 15-point halftime lead to USC, haven’t been to the Big Dance since 2003 when they lost to Kansas in the second round.
Temple has rattled off five consecutive SU and ATS wins and last weekend completed a three-game sweep to win the Atlantic 10 Conference tournament for the second straight year. In Saturday’s championship game, the Owls held off Duquesne 69-64, cashing in as a 4½-point favorite.
Last year, Temple was ousted in the first round of the Tournament by Michigan State, losing 72-61 and coming up short as 6 ½-point pups.
These teams met in both 2003 and 2004 with Arizona State prevailing both times by narrow margins. The Sun Devils scored a 70-66 home victory in 2003, coming up short as an eight-point favorite, and then got a 65-62 win at Temple in 2004, cashing as a four-point underdog.
Temple is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six games as a ‘dog, but the Owls are on ATS runs of 35-16-1 overall, 16-5 after a spread-cover and 5-0 in neutral-site contests. Arizona State is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 neutral-site outings and 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after a non-cover.
For Temple, the under is on streaks of 9-2 overall, 7-1 after a spread-cover, 6-2 in neutral-site games, 14-5 as a ‘dog, and 6-2 as a neutral-site pup. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils are riding “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-1 in non-league contests, 16-5 in neutral-site games and 7-1 as a neutral-site favorite.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
EAST REGION
(at Dayton, Ohio)
(9) Tennessee (21-12, 14-16-1 ATS) vs. (8) Oklahoma St. (22-11, 14-12-1 ATS)
Oklahoma State was red-hot down the stretch, winning six of seven (7-0 ATS) to close the regular season and then reached the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament before losing to Missouri 67-59 as a 4½-point pup in the semifinals.
Tennessee was able to win five of its last seven games (4-3 ATS) and earn an at-large bid into the field of 65. The Vols reached the finals of the SEC tournament but fell 64-61 to Mississippi State on Sunday despite being a 5½-point favorite.
Tennessee reached the Sweet 16 last season before getting blown out by Louisville 79-60 as two-point underdogs. The Cowboys haven’t been “dancing” since 2005 when they lost to Arizona in a Sweet 16 contest.
These teams met in 2005 with Oklahoma State scoring an 89-73 home win as three-point favorites, but the Vols returned the favor in 2006, winning 79-77 but coming up short as four-point favorites.
Tennessee is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against Big 12 foes, 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine as an NCAA Tournament favorite and 2-5 ATS in its last seven non-conference games. The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 overall and 16-7-2 in their last 25 neutral-site contests, but they are on pointspread slides of 3-10 as a ‘dog, 1-5-1 as a neutral-site ‘dog, 1-4 after a non-cover and 5-12-1 on Fridays.
For the Vols, the under is 8-3 in their last 11 overall, but the over is 8-3 in their last 11 neutral-site games as a favorite and 6-0 in their last six against Big 12 competition. Oklahoma State is on “under” runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 in non-conference games, 5-1 in neutral-site games as a ‘dog and 4-0 in NCAA Tournament games as a pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(16) E. Tennessee St. (22-11, 2-1 ATS) vs. (1) Pittsburgh (28-4, 16-9-1 ATS)
Pitt went one-and-done in the Big East conference tournament, losing to West Virginia 74-60 in the quarterfinals as a 4 ½-point chalk. The Panthers had won 10 of 11 (8-2 ATS) to close out the regular season, including an impressive 70-60 home win over UConn in the regular-season finale as 4½-point favorites.
The Panthers won the Big East tournament championship last season, but then fell in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, losing 65-54 to Michigan State as 2½-point favorites. Pitt has made six consecutive trips to the Big Dance under sixth-year coach Jaime Dixon, but has yet to make it past the Sweet 16.
East Tennessee State is on a five-game winning streak and got the Atlantic Sun conference tournament title with an 85-68 blowout victory over Jackson State on March 7, cashing as one-point underdogs in its only lined game of the season. The last time the Buccaneers were in the Big Dance was 2004 when they were knocked out by Cincinnati in the opening round.
The Buccaneers are on several positive ATS trends, including 11-5 overall, 10-4 in non-conference action, 14-5-1 in neutral-site games and 7-2 as underdogs. Pitt also is riding several ATS streaks, including 8-3 overall, 5-2-1 in neutral-site games, 7-3 as a favorite, 4-0 after a straight-up loss and 14-4-2 on Fridays.
For East Tennessee State, the over is on runs of 5-1 overall, 8-2 in neutral-site contests, 4-1 in non-conference action, 11-3 after a straight-up win and 5-2 as a neutral-site pup. Pittsburgh is on “under” runs of 4-0 in neutral-site games, 4-1 in non-conference action and 5-2 after an ATS setback, but the Panthers have soared over the title in six of eight NCAA Tournament games and six of seven after a straight-up loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
EAST REGION
(at Boise, Idaho)
(13) Portland State (23-9, 12-15-1 ATS) vs. (4) Xavier (25-7, 16-12-2 ATS)
After winning 20 of their first 22 games to start the season, Xavier split its last 10 contests – all in the Atlantic 10 Conference – including a 55-53 loss to Temple in the A-10 tournament semifinals, failing as a four-point favorite. The Musketeers went just 4-6-2 ATS down the stretch, all as a favorite, but they’ve held five of their last six opponents under 60 points.
Portland State enters the NCAA Tournament with a six-game winning streak (3-3 ATS). The Vikings earned the Big Sky Conference’s automatic bid by edging Montana State 79-77 in the league tournament final on March 11, failing to cover as a 7½-point favorite. Only one of Portland State’s six wins during its streak came by more than eight points.
Xavier knocked off Georgia, Purdue and West Virginia (3-0 ATS) to advance to the regional final in last year’s Big Dance, but its Final Four dreams ended in a 76-57 loss to UCLA as a six-point underdog. The Musketeers are in the Tournament for the fourth straight time, going 2-1 (1-2 ATS) in first-round games the last three years. Meanwhile, Portland State fell to Kansas 85-61 as a 21-point underdog in the first round last year, the school’s first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance.
The Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games when catching points at neutral sites, but they’re on ATS slides of 1-6 when an underdog of 7 to 12½ points, 2-5 on Friday and 1-4 versus teams with a winning record. Xavier is on positive pointspread runs of 9-2 in the Tournament, 35-17-1 at neutral venues, 17-7 as a favorite at neutral sites and 9-4-1 against squads with a winning record.
For Portland State, the over is on stretches of 13-5 overall, 5-1 on Friday and 5-2 as an underdog, while Xavier has topped the total in 10 of its last 11 NCAA Tournament contests and six straight non-conference games. Conversely, the under is on runs of 7-2-1 for the Musketeers overall (all as a favorite), 5-0 for the Musketeers at neutral sites and 4-1 for Portland State at neutral sites.
ATS ADVANTAGE: XAVIER
(10) Wisconsin (19-12, 12-16-1 ATS) vs. (7) Florida State (25-9, 18-9-1 ATS)
Florida State stunned top-seeded and No. 1-ranked North Carolina 73-70 to advance to the ACC tournament championship game for the first time in school history, but it was no match for Duke in Sunday’s final, falling 79-69 as a 6½-point underdog to end a three-game winning streak. Despite failing to cash against the Blue Devils, the Seminoles had one of the best pointspread records in the nation and are still on a 13-6-1 ATS run.
Wisconsin ended the regular season on a 7-2 roll (5-4 ATS), but went one-and-done in the Big Ten tournament, losing 61-57 to Ohio State as a three-point favorite a week ago today. After allowing 68.3 ppg during a midseason 0-6 slide, the Badgers have tightened things up on the defensive end, holding 10 consecutive opponents to 61 points or fewer and surrendering only 53.6 ppg during this stretch.
These teams met in an ACC/Big Ten Challenge back in 2006, with the Badgers cruising to an 81-66 victory as a 10½-point home favorite.
Florida State is back in the Tournament for the first time since 1998, when it lost to Valparaiso in the second round, and the Seminoles are 12-10 all-time in this event. This is Wisconsin’s 14th appearance in the Big Dance, and the seventh under coach Bo Ryan. Last year, the Badgers opened up with double-digit blowout wins over Cal-State Fullerton and Kansas State (2-0 ATS), but fell in the Sweet 16 to Davidson 73-56 as a five-point favorite.
The Seminoles’ slew of ATS hot streaks include 22-10-2 overall, 6-2 against the Big Ten, 6-2 at neutral sites, 7-2 as a favorite of less than seven points, 4-1 on Friday and 8-0-1 after a non-cover. Wisconsin has cashed in six of its last seven against teams from the ACC and it is 4-1 ATS as an underdog of less than seven points in the Tournament. However, otherwise, the Badgers are in pointspread funks of 1-4 overall, 0-5 against winning teams, 1-4 at neutral sties, 1-4-1 as an underdog and 2-6-1 on Friday.
The under is on runs of 6-1 for the Badgers overall, 5-1 when the Badgers are an underdog, 5-2-1 for the Badgers at neutral sites, 6-2 for Florida State overall, 15-5-2 for Florida State at neutral venues, 5-1 when Florida State is favored and 5-1-1 for Florida State on Friday. Conversely, the over is 5-0 in Wisconsin’s last five against the ACC and 5-1 in the ‘Noles’ last six versus the Big Ten.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA STATE and UNDER
WEST REGION
(at Boise, Idaho)
(11) Utah State (30-4, 14-12-1 ATS) vs. (6) Marquette (24-9, 14-13-1 ATS)
Marquette resided in the Top 25 virtually the entire season, but struggled mightily down the stretch, losing five of its final six games, all in the Big East. The lone victory came in the opening round of the conference tournament (a 74-45 rout of St. John’s), but the Eagles were eliminated the next day in a buzzer-beating 76-75 loss to Villanova, covering as a 2½-point underdog. Marquette cashed in both Big East tournament contests after ending the regular season in a 2-7 ATS rut.
Utah State earned the Western Athletic Conference’s automatic bid by knocking off host Nevada 72-62 as a 1½-point road underdog in the league tournament final. The Aggies, who started the season 24-1 and briefly crept into the Top 25, enter this game on a 4-0 run (2-2 ATS), and five of their last six victories were double-digit routs in WAC play. They’ve scored more than 70 points in six consecutive outings.
Marquette is making its 26th Tournament appearance and its fourth in a row. Last year, the Eagles knocked out Kentucky 74-66 as a six-point favorite in the first round before losing to Stanford 82-81 in overtime as a 2½-point underdog. The Aggies’ last trip to the Big Dance came in 2006, when they lost to Washington in the first round. They’re 6-19 SU in 17 all-time Tournament appearances.
Despite its ATS slumps of 4-7 overall, 1-4 as a favorite and 1-4-1 in non-conference games, the Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral-site contests, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a favorite at neutral venues and 16-5 ATS as a chalk of less than seven points. Utah State sports positive pointspread streaks of 10-4 in non-conference play, 9-3 at neutral venues, 6-1 as an underdog and 6-1 as a neutral-site pup.
For the Aggies, the over is on runs of 6-1 overall, 19-8 as an underdog and 5-2 at neutral sites, while Marquette is on “over” tears of 5-2 overall, 24-11 at neutral sites, 9-1 in the Big Dance and 5-0 when favored in the Tournament.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
(14) Cornell (21-9, 13-10 ATS) vs. (3) Missouri (28-6, 17-10 ATS)
Missouri capped a surprising season by rolling to its first Big 12 tournament championship with Sunday’s 73-60 rout of Baylor as a 6½-point favorite. The Tigers went 3-0 SU and ATS in the conference tourney, winning by margins of 21, 8 and 13 points, and they’ve had four separate winning streaks of four games or more this year.
Cornell qualified for the Tournament for the second straight season by virtue of capturing the Ivy League championship. The Big Red have been idle since beating Penn (83-59) and Princeton (60-51) on consecutive nights on March 6 and 7. They’re 16-3 SU in their last 19 games, but only 8-6 ATS in lined games, all against Ivy League foes and all as a favorite.
The Tigers’ last Tournament appearance came in 2003, when they lost a second-round game to Marquette in overtime. Meanwhile, Cornell has never won a Tournament game in three previous appearances, getting crushed 77-53 in a first-round loss to Stanford last year, never threatening to cover as a 16-point underdog.
Missouri carries a bunch of positive ATS streaks into this game, including 4-1 overall, 5-1 at neutral sites, 7-1 as a chalk, 5-0 when laying between 7 and 12 ½ points, 6-2 in the Tournament, 8-3 versus winning teams and 4-0 on Friday. Cornell is 18-8 ATS in its last 26 non-conference contests, 19-7-1 ATS in its past 27 as a ‘dog and 35-16 ATS in its last 51 after a non-cover, but the Big Red are 1-4 ATS in their last five against winning teams and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven when catching between 7 and 12½ points.
The under is on runs of 5-0 for Cornell overall, 8-3-2 when Cornell is an underdog, 4-1 for Missouri overall (all as a favorite) and 4-0 for Missouri at neutral sites. However, the over is 13-6 in the Tigers’ last 19 non-conference games and 7-0 in their last seven Tournament contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MISSOURI
NBA
Boston (51-18, 34-35 ATS) at San Antonio (45-22, 34-31-2 ATS)
The Spurs will attempt to sweep the season series from the defending champs when they host the Celtics at the AT&T Center in a clash of two of the top five teams in the NBA.
San Antonio is coming off Tuesday’s 93-86 win over the Timberwolves, but it came up short as a nine-point favorite as All-Star center Tim Duncan sat out the contest to rest. The Spurs have alternated SU wins and losses in their last five games and have followed up a 3-0 ATS run by going 1-3 ATS in their last four. The Spurs are still 10-5 in their last 15 games (9-6 ATS), and prior to Tuesday, the SU winner had cashed in 18 consecutive San Antonio contests.
Boston snapped a two-game slide with Wednesday’s 112-108 overtime win over the Heat, winning without the services of Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Leon Powe. However, the Celtics failed to cover as a seven-point favorite against Miami, their sixth consecutive ATS setback. Doc Rivers’ team has cashed just once in its last 11 games, going 0-5 ATS (1-4 SU) on the road during this stretch.
The Spurs went to Boston on Feb. 8 and upset the Celtics 105-99 as a 6½-point underdog, ending a three-game SU and four-game ATS slide in this rivalry. The Celtics have prevailed in their last two visits to the AT&T Center, both times as an underdog. In fact, the pup has cashed in five straight meetings, with four consecutive outright upsets.
In addition to ATS slumps of 1-10 overall and 0-5 on the road, the Celtics have failed to cash in 11 of their last 12 games played on one day of rest, but they’re 9-4 ATS in their last 13 on Friday and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 against the Southwest Division. The Spurs have covered in 10 of their last 14 against winning teams and four of their last five versus the Eastern Conference, but they’re 5-13-2 ATS in their last 20 against Atlantic Division foes.
The over is on streaks of 4-1 for Boston overall and 6-2 for the Spurs against the Atlantic Division, but the under is on stretches of 18-7 for the Celtics on the road, 5-2 for the Celtics against the Western Conference and 5-2 for San Antonio overall. Finally, the last three series meetings have gone over the total after the previous three had stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Dave Cokin
Robert Morris vs. Michigan State
Play: Michigan State -3'
Robert Morris is one of those dangerous unknown quantities. Fact is, this team is pretty good. But they're matched up badly in this contest. I don't think the dog can stand up to a really physical team, and Michigan State certainly qualifies on that count. I also see the site as a plus for the Spartans. Look for the chalk to eventually wear down their opponent here en route to a big win. I can't make this a strong play at such a lofty price, but the lean is to Michigan State minus the points.
Dwayne Bryant
5.5-point Mixed Teaser
Oklahoma City +10.5 & Wake Forest -2.5
Quick Analysis: The Jazz are just 13-20 SU on the road this season, while OKC has been an ATS machine. OKC is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog, and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss. In the CBB game, I like Wake's size advantage to get the job done. We saw Horizon League power Butler fall to a team from a major conference yesterday and I expect the Vikings to suffer the same fate tonight.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Toronto Raptors -1
The Raptors were just crushed 86-112 in Charlotte 4 days ago and I look for them to return the favor tonight. Charlotte is just 10-22 on the road this season so it is obviously not as good when playing away from home. Toronto has won 7 of the last 10 in this series and 4 of the last 5 at home. We haven't seen it much lately, but the Raptors are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite and the favorite is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Odds makers are tipping their hand here by favoring a Raptors team that was just slaughtered by these same Bobcats. Take Toronto.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Jazz/Thunder UNDER 199
The Under has been the call on the Thunder at home this season as they are 22-13 UNDER in home games this season. More specifically, they are 9-1 UNDER as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 points this season. Utah doesn't score as many points on the road and I don't expect too inspired of an effort from the Jazz here with Houston next on their mind. The Under is 7-0 in Jazz last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and 8-2 in Jazz last 10 overall. The Under is 6-0 in Thunder last 6 home games and 6-0 in Thunder last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. The Under gets the call.
Drew Gordon
Utah at OKLAHOMA CITY +5
Don't make the mistake of confusing the Jazz home play with their road play, because there's a HUGE difference. Say what you will about Utah, but sitting at just 13-20 SU & 15-18 ATS on the road, they're a below average team in hostile territory. It just so happens they're about to run into a Thunder team playing great ball at home, and the result will be more of the same from the Jazz on the road.
Remember guys, we're talking about an Oklahoma City team that's won 4 of their last 5 games at the Ford Center, including an outright win over the Spurs this past Monday! True, they had a letdown against the Bulls in their last one, but that was to be expected after their big-time win over San Antonio... Look for the Thunder to refocus tonight, and that's bad news for Utah-backers!
Several match ups in this contest intrigue me, including the Thunder's rookie stud Russell Westbrook versus Deron Williams. Normally you'd think this would be a tremendous mismatch, but Westbrook is an excellent defender, and he'll make life very difficult for Williams all game long. Also, with Durant back and healthy, the Thunder have one of the best offensive players in the NBA since the All-Star Break, and there's no one on Utah's roster who can even think about guarding him.
Finally, a couple trends: the underdog in this series is a solid 11-4 ATS over their last 15 meetings! And Utah is just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 meetings with Oklahoma City, including an outright loss the last time they visited the Ford Center back on January 14th! The betting public has a hard time differentiating between the Jazz playing in Salt Lake and the Jazz playing anywhere else... Fact of the matter is Utah is very beatable on the road, especially considering how well the Thunder have played at home of late.
Take Oklahoma City plus the points over Utah in this NBA match up.
4♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Bobby Maxwell
North Dakota State vs. Kansas -10, at Minneapolis
Here's your comp winner for Friday's first round of the Big Dance as we go with Kansas to lay the wood to North Dakota State.
North Dakota State has reason to celebrate. The Bison had a great season and reached the Big Dance the first year they were eligible. But that's where the celebrating is stopping. There are not wearing Cinderella's slipper today. Kansas is going to win this one by 20 at least.
Kansas is the defending national champion. They won this thing last year, and while there aren't a lot of returners from that championship squad, there are some and they know the drill. They know what it takes to win and advance. They won't get caught off-guard by the Bison.
The Jayhawks lost in the Big 12 quarterfinals to Baylor but closing out the regular season they won six of their last seven and went 5-1-1 ATS down the stretch. They are in their 20th straight Big Dance and they are on ATS runs of 22-8-1 overall, 13-6 in non-conference action, 36-15-1 against teams with winning records and last year they went 5-1 ATS en route to the national crown.
North Dakota State just doesn't play many lined contests, and while the Bison might have been good for their conference, this is a step up in class they aren't ready for. They won the Summit League title with a 66-64 win over Oakland. They played two other tourney teams this season in Minnesota, losing 90-76 and losing at USC 61-57. Kansas is much better than either of those two.
Play Kansas to end the hopes of the Bison tonight. The big bully wins this fight.
4♦ KANSAS
Utah State +4' vs. Marquette, at Boise, Idaho
Marquette played most of the season in the Top-25 but the loss of guard Dominic James with a broken foot has really changed this team. That's why we think this could be a prime upset today with Aggies. Play Utah State.
The Eagles lost five of their last six with the only win being a victory over lowly St. John's in the first round of the Big East tournament. They finished the 2-7 ATS in their last nine regular season games but did get two covers in the conference tourney.
Utah State won the WAC and won the tournament title with a 72-62 win in the championship game, beating Nevada on its home court in Reno, cashing as a 1 1/2-point road chalk. The Aggies opened the season 24-1 and had a stint in the Top-25. They can score points and shoot close to 50 percent from the field, near the top of the country for field-goal accuracy.
The Aggies are on ATS runs of 10-4 in non-conference action, 9-3 on neutral courts, 6-1 as an underdog and 6-1 as a neutral-site 'dog. On the other side, the Eagles are just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 overall, 1-4 in their last five as a favorite and 1-4-1 in non-conference contests.
Grab the points and play Utah State as they shoot it well in this one and take this one right down to the buzzer.
3♦ UTAH STATE
Jeff Benton
USC -2 vs. Boston College, at Minneapolis, MN
How ‘bout that outright free-play winner with Michigan over Clemson on Thursday? Let’s go for two in a row Friday by backing USC against Boston College in a No. 10 seed vs. No. 7 seed showdown.
This play essentially comes down to one key fact: USC enters the Tournament on a five-game SU and ATS winning streak, including three impressive wins in the Pac-10 tournament, while Boston College was maddeningly inconsistent all season long, and that was especially true down the stetch when the Eagles lost five of their final nine games both SU and ATS.
Start with the Trojans. Knowing they needed to win the Pac-10 tournament to advance to their third straight Big Dance, USC scored three upsets in as many days over Cal (79-75), UCLA (65-55) and Arizona State (66-63), with the tournament-clinching win over the Sun Devils being particularly impressive, as they rallied from a 15-point halftime hole. USC’s late-season run really wasn’t all that surprising, as this team was much better than it played in the middle of the Pac-10 season (when it lost six of seven games). You may not remember, but back on Dec. 4, the Trojans went to Oklahoma and took Blake Griffin and the Sooners to the limit, losing 73-72 as an 8½-point underdog.
As for Boston College and its inconsistency, here’s all you need to know: The Eagles opened ACC play with a stunning seven-point road win at No. 1 North Carolina, then lost four straight (including an embarrassing eight-point home loss to Harvard!), then won four in a row before closing on that 4-5 slump.
Lastly, when you get these Tournament matchups against seemingly equal teams, coaching becomes increasingly important. And I trust USC’s Tim Floyd a lot more than I trust Al Skinner – just as I trusted Michigan’s John Beilein a lot more than I did Clemson’s Oliver Purnell (and the 10th-seeded Wolverines beat the 7th-seeded Tigers outright). Simply put, there’s a reason the 10 seed in this one is favored over the 7 seed. Lay the small price.
5♦ USC
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
Michigan comes through with the outright victory over Clemson and puts us at 5-2 our last 7 Comp Plays.
We’re nailing another winner today as we’re taking the Missouri Tigers big over Cornell of the Ivy League.
The Tigers come into this game on a tear, having ripped through the Big XII tournament, beating Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Baylor by an average of 14 points per game, covering against each of those teams and covering in 7 of their last 9 games.
Missouri comes into this game having covered in 7 of their last 8 games when installed as a favorite and the Tigers are 6-2 ATS their last eight games in The Tournament.
Now they battle a Big Red team that’s covered only once in its last 7 games when installed as an underdog of between 7 and 12 1/2 points and is only 2-5 ATS its last 7 games when installed as a dog at neutral sites.
Consider also that while Missouri was playing and beating teams like Oklahoma, Kansas and Oklahoma State in a brutal Big XII conference, Cornell was dealing with - and losing SU and ATS to - lesser Ivy League teams like Harvard, Yale and Princeton.
The Tigers are more battle tested against better competition and will destroy the Big Red. Take Missouri in this opening round matchup.
3♦ MISSOURI
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Ohio State/ Siena Over 142
The Over is 5-1 in Buckeyes last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5, while the Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 non-conference games. Siena's games have averaged 147.7 ppg overall and 154 ppg when playing away from home, plus their last 10 games have averaged 152.2 ppg. The saints rank 28th in scoring at 77.7 ppg and 31st in FG% at 47.7%, while their odefense is 228th in points allowed (70 ppg) and 194th in defensive FG% (43.7%). Now the Buckeyes aren't your offensive juggernaut as they have averaged just 66.7 ppg, but they are an efficient offense as they are 9th in FG% (48.4%). With that kind of shooting I can easily see them getting 70+ in this one. The Buckeys have also hit 37.9% from beyond the Arc (33rd) and 70% from the FT line (136th). The Buckeye defense is tough, but the Saints have been able to score on everyone this year and I see tonight's game as no different. Siana will get the Buckeyes into a running game and I look for a game in the 150's here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Syracuse -11.5 over Stephen F. Austin
The Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. the Lumberjacks have had a fine season as they went 23-7 overall, including a 7-4 mark vs non-conf opponents, but they did play 3 schools from the BCS conferences (Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Arkansas) and they were 0-3 vs those schools and were outscored by 12.3 ppg in those games. The Orange have been impressive down the stretch, but the OT's in the Big East tourney finally caught up with the in the Big East Final and they eventually lost the Title game to Louisville. Before the 6 OT game the Orange had been playing some of the best ball in the country. Greanted they beat up on some bottom feeders in the Big East, but prior to the UConn game the Orange went 5-0 and those wins included a 25 pt win over St Johns, a 24 pt win over Cincinnati, a 30 pt win over Rutgers and a 15 pt win over Seton Hall. Why do I list those games? Because I feel that those teams could still probably beat the Lumberjacks and If the Cuse can demolish those teams then they should be able to take this one by 15+ with ease. The Cuse are now rested and ready and should have an easy win here.
Pitt/ East Tennessee State Over 147.5
The Over is 8-2 in Buccaneers last 10 neutral site games, while the Over is 6-0-1 in Panthers last 7 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater. The Buccaneers have been anoffensive machyine of late as thyey have averaged a whopping 89.4 ppg in their last 5 games. Overall ETSU is 18th in the nation in scoring at 78.5 ppg and 51st in FG% at 46.6%. Pitt comes in averaging 78 ppg overall (26th) and they are 12th in FG% hitting 48.2% of their shots. Pitts defense has been good overall as they have allowed just 64 ppg, but gthey may be tiring a bit down the stretch as they have allowed 73.6 ppg in their last 5 games. EYTSU has not been a good defensive team this year, as they have allowed 70.4 ppg overall (231st) and 74.6 ppg in their neutral site games. When Pitt has been a double digit fav this year their games have averaged 149.9 ppg, while ETSU's neutral site games have averaged 154.6 ppg. Both teams will look to push the ball in this one, so i look for a game that will approach the 160's.
Dayton/ West Virginia Over 126.5: The Over is 5-1 in Flyers last 6 neutral site games and 19-5 in their last 24 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5, while the Over is 5-1 in Mountaineers last 6 vs. Atlantic 10. The Flyers last 6 games have averaged 144.2 ppg, while their neutral site games have averaged 138.8 ppg on the year. West Virginia's games have averaged 134 ppg on the year, including 133 ppg in their neutral site games and 135.8 ppg in their last 5 games. Both defense have played well this year, but the offenses have stepped it up of late and should be able to put enough on the board to get an easy over here.
2 UNIT PLAY
Missouri -12.5 over Cornell
The Big Red are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5, while the Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Cornel has had a nice year but most of their damage has been done at home this year, where they went 13-0. Once the Big red left their home court this team went just 8-9, including neutral games. Back in Nov & Dec, Cornell played St John's, Siena, Indiana, Syracuse, Minnesota and St Joes all away from home and were 0-6 in those games and were outscored by 12.5 ppg in those games. Missouri is better than all of thos teams so Cornell should have some real struggles today vs a team that has just won the Big 12 Tourney and may just find themselves in the Final Four when all is said and done. Missouri by 15+ here.
1 UNIT PLAY
Oklahoma State/ Tennessee Under 157.5
The Under is 7-2 in Volunteers last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, while the Under is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 5-1 in their last 6 neutral site games as an underdog. Down the stretch the Cowboys gamnes have been a bit lower scoring than normal as they have averaged 140.1 ppg in their last 7 games. The Vols last 10 games have averaged just 145.6 ppg. Both teams can score but teams have been playing better defense of late and that will keep the score down here.
Evan Altemus
Selection: MISSOURI -12.5
The Ivy League is arguably one of the weakest conferences in all of Division I basketball. That showed last season in the NCAA tournament when Cornell was completely blown out by Stanford. There is simply too much of a talent gap for Ivy League teams to get games close against quality opponents. Syracuse, Minnesota, Indiana, Siena, and St. John's were all able to get relatively easy wins over the Big Red. Missouri is a bad match-up for Cornell as well because of the Tigers high pressure defense. They love to play up-tempo under head coach Mike Anderson, which puts a premium on opposing teams having good ball handlers. Cornell simply doesn't have the guard play needed to keep this game close. Look for Missouri to get a blowout win.