Jrtips
WIZARDS vs. NUGGETS
The Nuggets look for a season high-tying fifth straight win tonight against the slumping Washington Wizards. Denver (44-25) looks for its 18th victory in 22 games at the Pepsi Center after they rallied from a 13-point fourth-quarter deficit to defeat Memphis 111-109 as Carmelo Anthony scored Denver's final 10 points. After scoring 35 points in his last game, Anthony could have another big scoring night as he's facing a Washington team that's allowing 104.1 points per game during its 3-11 stretch. In the Wizards' last visit to Denver, Anthony hit 19 of 25 shots and scored 49 in a 111-100 victory and he had 23 points, eight rebounds and six assists in just 26 minutes of a 124-103 win over the Wizards (16-53) on Feb. 6th. Chauncey Billups is averaging 18.6 points and 6.3 assists per game and recorded his second straight double-double Wednesday with 18 points and 12 assists. J.R. Smith looks to continue his hot shooting after going 5-of-10 from 3-point range and scoring 21 on Wednesday. He's averaging 17.0 points and shooting 50.0 percent (15-of-30) from long range during the winning streak. Washington, meanwhile, is looking to improve upon its East-worst 5-29 road record. The Wizards dropped their second straight overall and fell to 0-2 on their four-game western swing with Wednesday's 123-108 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. The Wizards played a game with eight guys in their last game while the team's second-leading scorer at 20.1 points per game, missed his third consecutive game with soreness in his left hamstring. Antawn Jamison will be trying for his third straight double-double. Denver has won five of six at home against Washington. Washington just doesn"t have enough healthy players to compete on the road against this Denver team as shown when they completely lost it down the stratch against the Clippers, although they won"t be so luck to stay in the game that long against this hot Nugget team.TAKE DENVER-14
Ben Burns
Charlotte Bobcats at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Under
These teams just faced each other on Monday, at Charlotte. That game finished with 198 (112-86 Charlotte) combined points, sneaking above the closing total of 194. That result has helped to provide us with a relatively generous over/under number for today's rematch.
Note that the Raptors saw their most recent home game finish below the number by double-digits. They held the high-scoring Pacers to just 87 points in that game. That's worth mentioning as Indiana averages better than 104 points per game, the second most in the Eastern Conference. Conversely, Charlotte averages a mere 93.1 per game, the lowest mark in the entire league.
That wasn't a normal result for these teams though, as they averaged just 173.5 in this season's earlier two meetings. Those games had over/under lines of 184 and 186.5 but finished with scores of 93-86 and 89-79. With tonight's over/under line listed a full 10-12 points higher, consider a play on the UNDER.
DAVE MALINSKY
Utah State @ Marquette
PICK: Marquette
No, Marquette is not the same team without Dominic James. But now that there has been a full week of practice time to make some adjustments the Golden Eagles are still far better than this opponent, and bring some major matchup advantages that they can exploit, along with a sincere sense of purpose – you will see shaved heads when they take the court today, a sign that seniors Jerel McNeal, Wesley Matthews and the supporting cast have not given up on their mission.
While Marquette was indeed 1-5 after losing James, when you take a closer look it is difficult to find any fault at all. Three of the defeats came against tourney #1 seeds Louisville (62-58 in a hard-fought game on the road), Pittsburgh (where they led by nine on the road in the second half), and Connecticut (the actual game in which James was injured); while the other two were vs. #3 seeds Syracuse (in overtime) and Villanova (76-75 at the buzzer in Madison Square Garden). The only time they stepped down in class at all in that span was a 74-45 blowout of St. John’s in the Big East tourney opener. And the reality is that they are stepping way down in clss again.
With James this was a Final Four contender, but without him the Sweet 16 may still be within reach, and this particular opponent was an excellent draw. The athleticism of McNeal and Matthews will be too much for a slow Aggie defense, which means penetration to the basket to set up easy scoring opportunities, and likely foul trouble as well for a team unaccustomed to this level of athleticism. The Utah State schedule rated only #179 this season, without a single road game against an NCAA tourney team, and yet there were signs of wear down the stretch anyway – late-season road losses by 10 at Boise State, 13 at Nevada and 11 at a Saint Mary’s team without Patty Mills, and in the W.A.C. tourney the Aggies trailed New Mexico State by 13 in the second half of the semi-finals before gutting out a one-point win.
Stew Morrill is one of the best tactical coaches around, but you do not attract great athletes to Logan, Utah. As such he has only gone 1-6 in the Big Dance with this program, and the resume does not bring nearly enough to be in this short of a price range against this class of opponent.
Dave Price
1 Unit on OKC Thunder +5
Utah is finally healthy, but it has not solved its road struggles. The Jazz have lost 3 straight on the road to fall to just 13-20 away from home on the season and they will have a major tendency to look past OKC here with a game against Houston up next. The Thunder have been a gamblers dream this season and we will continue to back them tonight. The Underdog is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings in this series. The Thunder are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as a home underdog and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog of 5.0-10.5. OKC beat the Spurs outright as a 5-point underdog 4 days ago and I like the Thunder in the underdog role again here.
JIM FEIST
WASHINGTON WIZARDS / DENVER NUGGETS
Take UNDER
Washington is on a 2-1 run under the total with all kinds of problems on offense. With Caron Butler battling an injury, the Wizards (16-51) will again play without four projected opening-day starters: Butler, Gilbert Arenas, Brendan Haywood and DeShawn *******on, who is out for the season. Arenas, who has been practicing off and on since Feb. 16, is not on the trip, while Haywood is hurting. With 15 games remaining in the season, time is running out for a return by Arenas or Haywood. Because the team had yesterday off before flying to Salt Lake City, Haywood will not have an opportunity to participate in a full practice until next Tuesday. Denver is on a 6-4 run under the total, holding the last 4 home opponents under 100 points. Play the Wizards/Nuggets under the total.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cleveland State at Wake Forest
Wake best be careful in this first round matchup. The Deacons lost five of 11 to close the season and their former #1 ranking is now a distant memory. They are just 4-16 against the spread away from Winston-Salem when coming off an outright loss as a favorite. They are just 1-9 ATS their last 10 NCAA Tournament games! They are just 9-24 ATS as a neutral court favorite. CSU is 11-1 ATS coming off a road win.
Play on: Cleveland State
Charlie Scott
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Under 157.5
My basic analysis for this game is, if OK st want to be competitive with Tennessee they keep this UNDER 157. It is the NCAA Tourney which means even Tennessee will give an effort on defense. I looked at OK st last 5 road games with high totals, and except for being blown out at Texas, their road games played UNDER 157. PLAY UNDER !
Alex Smart
Cleveland State +9
No.4 seed Wake Forest (24-6) of the ACC goes head to head with No.13 seed Cleveland State(25-10) the Horizon League champs. The winner Advances to take on No. 5 Utah (24-9)-No. 12 Arizona (19-13) winner on Sunday.
Cleveland State might be the smaller team from the lower tier conference , but they still must not be under estimated. This is the same team that took the Butler Bulldogs to the limit in two regular season games before dispensing them in the conference championship finale.
The The CSU front line of 6-5 J'Nathan Bullock, 6-8 George Tandy and 6-9 Chris Moore, are capable of playing physical in the paint, while the their stingy defense will at the same time make sure the Deacons speedy transition game gets slowed to a crawl.
We do not need a miracle here, just a cover. Take the points with Cleveland State
Final notes & Key Trends: Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games and have covered 4 straight as underdogs. The Demon Deacons are 0-8 ATS L/8 NCAA tournament games, including 6 straight as favorites. Wake Forest is also 6-22 ATS L/28 in neutral site tilts.
Play on Cleveland State to cover
Wunderdog
Tennessee vs. Oklahoma State
Pick: Tennessee -2
Tennessee lost 133 out of 200 minutes of contributions from last year's team that lost trying to advance to the Elite 8. This team took some time to gain experience, and came within three points of winning the SEC Championship, so they are ready. Oklahoma State had a shinning moment in the Big-12 Tournament by knocking off Oklahoma. The problem is that they dropped all of their road conference games to the good teams. Out of conference, they got hammered by the good teams as well. I think this team is still a year away from winning in the NCAA Tournament, so I'll go with Tennessee here.
Greg Shaker
Florida St. -2.5 vs Wisconsin
I am having a hard time figuring this line out and that usually scares me but not this time. Florida State is clearly the better team here. The ACC has been very good this year and certainly the Big 10's Thursday was not that stellar. The Key in this contest is the outstanding defense that the Sems play and that has gotten better here late in the season. Over their last 9 contests, opponents have had serious difficulty with good looks to the basket and in doing so, they have shot just over 37% from the court. The Badgers have played well down the stretch but their competion level has been sub-par playing Indiana twice and 2 other squads over their last 9 that are not Dancing. Let's make no mistake about one thing. The Badgers have outstanding offensive efficiency, ranked #27 in this land. But the Seminoles have faced some pretty good one's this year as 8 ACC Squads have a better ranking or close to that of Wisconsin. It did not stop them from putting together an extraordinary record this year and it did not stop them from accomplishing what they have here late in this season. It did not stop them from accomplishing the D numbers they have. This team continues to grow and they are playing with extreme confidence right now. Much like the Maryland Play yesterday, this one is along the same lines. The ACC is the dominent conference in this tourney, like it or not. The Seminoles are the best team on this court today when they step upon it playing the Badgers. Oh oh oh oh oh--oh oh oh oh--oh oh oh oh!! In case you were wondering, that was the FSU Tommyhawk Thing they do. We are likely to see that a lot tonight.
Rocketman
Morehead State vs Louisville
Play: Louisville -20.5
Morehead State, winner of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament, comes in with a 20-15 record on the season. Louisville, winner of the best conference in the nation this year (the Big East), comes in with a super 28-5 record this year. Morehead State had to play the "Play-In" game which featured the 64th seed against the 65th seed. Morehead State came out victorious over Alabama State with a 58-43 win as a 2 1/2 to 3 point favorite to move into today's matchup with Louisville. Morehead State now sits in the #16 seed and will face a very good Louisville team who is seeded #1 in the Midwest Region and is the #1 overall seed for the entire tournament. Both of these teams come from the state of Kentucky and have faced each other before. The last two meetings between these two saw Louisville winning by 38 points and 24 points. Louisville did beat Morehead State this year at home 79-41. Rick Pitino's Louisville team is led in scoring by Earl Clark at 14 points per game followed by Terrence Williams 12.3 points per game. Clark is also the team's leading rebounder grabbing 8.8 boards per game while Williams is close behind grabbing 8.5 points per game. Morehead State is led by 6-5 Senior Leon Buchanan scoring 15.1 points per game. Kenneth Faried leads the team in rebounding with a whopping 12.8 rebounds per game.
Here are some numbers for this game. Louisville is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS this year in all tournament games. Morehead State is only 15-34 ATS since 1997 in non-conference games. Morehead State is 29-110 SU since 1997 as an underdog. A #1 seed has never lost to a #16 seed outright in the tournament but the last 4 years the #1 and #16 teams are 8-8 ATS. Last year the better seed was 38-22 63.3% overall. Louisville is 43-13 ATS last 3 years and 15-5 ATS this year after a conference game. Louisville is 33-11 ATS last 3 years after a win against a conference opponent. We'll recommend a small play on Louisville tonight!
TopSportsBets
UTAH -1 Arizona *POD* (5 UNITS)
I love everything about this game. Everyone loves Arizona here because of the seeding. Everyone loves the 12 vs. the 5. I understand more than most because Northern Iowa was our POD yesterday (winner) at TopSportsBets.com, and they were a number 12 seed. The other 12 seed won outright yesterday. So i understand the Arizona love here. However, Utah is clearly the play here. These teams are absolutely complete opposites of each other. Arizona is the more physically gifted team, i will give them that. But that's all i will give them. Arizona is one of the biggest disappointments of the entire College Basketball season. This team is loaded with NBA talent, yet they underachieve. I'm a huge Budinger fan, as i used to watch him in high school. I think Hill is a top 6 pick in next years NBA draft. Wise can score on almost anyone. But they underachieve! This team has no heart, absolutely none. This team doesn't play well together. Look at their season as whole. Utah on the other hand are overachievers. This team is incredibly smart and scrappy. They are very well coached, and because of that, are very tough to beat. This team is just full of winners. They also happen to match up well with Arizona. Utah will be able neutralize Hill because of their own massive talent in the paint. Look for Utah's scrappy and smart defense to severely hamper Nic Wise. I expect Budinger to have a good game, but that's it. For Arizona to win, they need more than Chase. It won't happen. I know both these teams well, and i'm confident that Utah wins this game going away. This score won't be nearly as close as the spread indicates. Take Utah -1 as your POD today!
Who2BetOn
We have been saying all year that the Big Ten is mostly garbage this season, and this matchup between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Siena Saints seems like the ultimate test, a test we expect mid-major Siena to pass with flying colors.
Remember that the Saints blew out Vanderbilt in the first round of this tournament last year, and this is an experienced senior laden team that remembers that experience quite well, and is looking for a deeper run this season. Siena likes to play at a fast pace, averaging 77.7 points per game, and they are very efficient, hitting 47.3 percent of their shots from the floor despite having so many possessions.
This is precisely the kind of team that should give Ohio State fits, as the Buckeyes are not accustomed to this pace after facing a plodding Big Ten schedule. Sure, OSU actually has a higher field goal percentage offensively at 48.4 percent, but the fact that they are only averaging 66.7 points with such a high percentage should give you an idea of how slow they play.
Siena is out to prove that their 26-7 record this season was no fluke, and not only do we expect them to pull the upset here, but we actually expect the Saints to win handily.
Pick: Siena +3
EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Siena Saints
(834) Ohio State Buckeyes (-3)
The Siena Saints are no longer an unknown team that can provide
you with good value when you wager on them. They have became
a public darling and it shows in the line on this game. Ohio State
is rolling coming into the tournament and they are well aware of what
Sienna can do. I'll lay the short number here with OSU in what
amounts to a home game for them.
2009 Free Selections Record 43-35 (55.1%)
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
226 - 153 run 60 %
Friday Boston College
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maddux sports is on a 60% run since
2003 on their free pick.
Today's Free Pick is Pittsburgh -19.5
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8)
Yankee Capper
NHL
LA Kings/Pittsburgh o6
NY Islanders/Carolina o5.5
NBA
Dallas/Indiana o210
Sacramento/NY Knicks 0225
NCAA HOOPS
RMU/Mich St o133
West Virginia -9