Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
How easy was that winner last night on Villanova? The Wildcats come through huge with an enormous outright win over Duke. That win now puts us at 11-4 our last 15 Comp Plays and we’re adding to our win total tonight as we’re continuing with action in The Tournament.
Tonight, we’re going with Michigan State big over Kansas as these two meet for the second time this season. The first time these two hooked up, on Jan. 10, the Spartans destroyed the Jayhawks 75-62 as a 6-point favorite.
Now the Spartans come into this game having covered 4 straight against non-conference opponents and 6 straight against the Big XII. Also, Michigan State has covered in 15 of its last 19 games when installed a favorite in The Tournament and has gone 20-6-2 ATS its last 28 games when installed as a favorite between 1/2 and 6 1/2 points.
The Jayhawks aren’t as strong as they were last year when they won the national championship and will not be able to defend its title as the Spartans lay another beat down like the one they administered earlier this year.
Take Michigan State easy in this one tonight.
3♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Sports Gambling Hotline
Arizona +9 vs. LOUISVILLE - at Indianapolis, IN
No such luck tonight in backing Louisville to blow out Arizona, as we feel the linesmakers have once again inflated the price on the tournaments overall number one seed.
No doubt Rick Pitino's team should have the moxy to get by Arizona, but with the Cardinals failing against both Morehead State, and Siena, we don't see them covering this big number against an Arizona team that has a few future NBA players on their roster.
Arizona's Russ Pennell is familiar with Rick Pitino, as he used to be an assistant at Ole Miss, and did face Kentucky when Pitino was coaching in Lexington. That familiarity should definitely help in keeping the Cardinals in check, and the fact Louisville is an under 65% free-throw shooting team should give the Wildcats a fighting chance to stay inside of the large number they are getting in this Sweet Sixteen matchup.
The Wildcats have looked very solid to us in disposing of a decent Utah team, and a dangerous Cleveland State team, both wins coming by double-digits!
We give Arizona a fighting chance in this one to stay close against the mighty 'Ville.
Play on the 'Cats.
3♦ ARIZONA
Karl Garrett
Arizona vs. LOUISVILLE - at Indianapolis, IN
G-Man off his third straight comp play win last night on Xavier plus the points, and tonight I am releasing a rare tournament total, as I like Arizona and Louisville to combine for an OVER play.
Arizona has played OVER the posted total in 8 of their last 11 games dating back to the regular season, and their tourney opener against Utah did head OVER the posted price. The only reason their game against Cleveland State did not eclipse the total was because they held the Vikings to just 57-points.
It seems unlikely the Wildcats will be able to hold the Cardinals to under 60-points, as Louisville has been in the 70's in both of their tournament games to date.
The Cards have been OVER the total in 2 of their last 3 games, and they just missed the HIGH in the opening round against Morehead State, coming in a 3-pointer shy of the total.
6 of Arizona's last 8 games played at neutral sites have seen the OVER come through, and this game to me sure has the potential to be in the high-140's, making the OVER the play in this matchup.
2♦ OVER
Drew Gordon
Gonzaga vs North Carolina -8' at Memphis, TN
Lay the points. For all the good things the 'Zags bring to the table, the disparity in talent becomes crystal clear in this contest. Tarheels simply have more and better at each position, and it all starts at the PG position with Ty Lawson. He looked great against LSU, dropping in 23 points on 7 of 13 shooting, plus 6 assists! Simply put, there's no one on Gonzaga's roster who can stay in front of him, and that presents HUGE problems for a usually sound Bulldogs D. If Lawson is allowed to penetrate, Gonzaga's defense will collapse, and that's where the problems begin.
Also, while Heyvelt and Daye looked good against teams like the Hilltoppers, they're about to take a major step up in competition. We already know what Tyler Hansbrough brings to the table, Green and Thompson are solid, and the emergence of freshman F Ed Davis (12 ppg, 6 rpg boards, 6 blocks, and just 1 turnover in tourney action) makes for a formidable frontline, especially with little depth behind Heytvelt and Daye.
From a trend standpoint, its tough to ignore the fact the Bulldogs are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record! That says a lot about their inability to "step it up" against better competition after kicking ass in the weak-ass WCC all season. Also, for all the public adoration this team gets during March Mayhem, they're 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games during this time of the year, and that's should have plenty of 'Zags-backers worried in this one. In the end, Tarheels are simply too much for a good, but overmatched Bulldogs squad Friday night!
Take North Carolina over Gonzaga in this college hoops match up.
1♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Michael Cannon
Gonzaga vs. North Carolina -8', at Memphis, TN
Take North Carolina minus the points over Gonzaga.
The Tarheels are hitting their stride and I don’t see Gonzaga hanging with them tonight.
North Carolina got a boost from point guard Ty Lawson in its second-round win over Lsu. The speedy point guard scored 23 points and was dominant in the second-half of that win.
Gonzaga will no doubt try to slow the pace tonight, but the Tarheels are the master of getting out on the fast break and the Bulldogs will be powerless to stop it once it gets going.
North Carolina has grabbed the cash in its two wins in the tournament and they should get past this price again tonight.
The Bulldogs are in ATS slides of 1-7 in non-conference play, 0-4 in the Big Dance, 5-14-1 on Friday and 4-11 against teams with a winning record.
The Tarheels are on ATS runs of 36-15 in non-conference play, 8-3 on neutral courts and 6-1 in tournament games.
Take North Carolina as they grab the win and cover.
3♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Bobby Maxwell
Gonzaga +8' vs. N. Carolina, at Memphis, TN
Your winner tonight comes from Memphis as we grab the points and play Gonzaga to cover the number against North Carolina.
This is just too many points to pass up. We've got to give Gonzaga a shot in this one as they ae playing well as anybody right now.
The Bulldogs have won 11 straight and beat Western Kentucky 83-81 in the second round but didn't come close to covering as an 11-point favorite. These guys showed their balance by having all five starters reach double-digits. The Zags improved to 8-1 SU in neutral-site games and 20-1 SU in their last 21 overall.
One big factor for Gonzaga tonight is they won't come in with an ounce of fear or hesitation and they've had a week to gameplan for the Tar Heels and Tyler Hansbrough and PG Ty Lawson. How effective will Lawson be tonight on that injured big toe? And he's already got trouble having to go up against the Zags' Jeremy Pargo and Matt Bouldin.
Another matchup I like in this one is the Bulldogs' Josh Heytvelt going up against Hansbrough. Heytvelt faced these Tar Heels a couple seasons ago and put up 19 points and grabbed eight rebounds. Hansbrough scored just nine points in 32 minutes in the matchup as Gonzaga won 82-74 in a November preseason tourney contest.
The Heels are on ATS slides of 1-8 after a spread-cover, 9-17 overall and 5-17 after a straight-up win. This is just too many points to pass up. Play Gonzaga.
4♦ GONZAGA
Nick Parsons
Vancouver Canucks @ Colorado Avalanche
Play: Colorado +140
Vancouver is coming off a disheartening loss to the Blues last night, and with the recent "scuttlebut" of star Goaltender Roberto Luongo telling local media that he wants to "go to a contendor" when his contract runs out, I look for the Canucks to let another one slip by this evening as the Avalanche offer us great value this evening. The Av's are coming off a beatdown loss at home to the Ducks, and I expect them to play with more intensity this evening; Colorado is 13-11 (+9.2 units) when playing against a team with a winning record. I recommend a great value play on the AVALANCHE!
Tom Freese
Memphis at Sacramento
Sacramento is 10-2 OVER their last 12 games off a double digit home loss and they are 4-1 OVER their last 5 home games. The Kings are 10-4 OVER on Friday and they are 5-1 OVER their last 6 home games vs. the Grizzlies. Memphis is 8-0 OVER their last 8 games as road dogs of 4.5 or less points and they are 6-1 OVER vs. a team with a win percentage of under 40%. The Grizzlies are 4-1 OVER when playing with three or more days of rest and they are 4-1 OVER their last 5 games vs. losing teams. PLAY ON 'OVER'
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Charlotte Bobcats +5.5
Charlotte is working hard to try to play its way into the postseason. After back-to-back losses, which includes a bad one to Washington in its last game in which it blew a big lead, I expect a very motivated effort from the Bobcats tonight. Charlotte played Philly to a 6-point on the road earlier this season facing this same number and the Bobcats are a better team than they were then and they will be playing with a larger sense of urgency. Charlotte has been a money underdog this season at 28-19 ATS in the role. The Bobcats are also 20-11 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. With Philly, fatigue will be a concern tonight and the 76ers are just is 4-13 ATS in home games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 seasons. Take the points.
LARRY NESS
New Orleans Hornets @ New York Knicks
PICK: New Orleans Hornets
The Knicks were in the thick of things back in mid-March, with a realistic shot of making the East Conference playoffs (trailed Chicago and Milwaukee by just a half-game for that final spot). However, that was then and this is now. The Knicks will take a six-game losing streak into their Friday night home game with the Hornets and currently reside a full SIX games out of the final playoff spot, with four teams in between. New York's trouble all season has been its defense (allow 108.6 PPG to rank 29th) and over the last five games of the team's six-game slide, the Kicks have allowed 118.4 PPG. Al Harrington (20.8 PPG in his 57 games with the Knicks), Nate Robinson (18.3-4.1-4.1) and David Lee (16.1-11.9) have been the team's best players but right now, the Knicks sure look 'lost!' The Hornets could really use a win tonight, as they are 5th overall in the Western Conference playoff picture but just THIRD in their own division (trail the Spurs by 2 1/2 games and the Rockets by 1 1/2). EIGHT of New Orleans' final 12 games are on the road and the team closes with SEVEN consecutive games vs opponents with better than .500 records. Paul (22.2-5.4-10.9) and West (20.0-88.3) lead the way but the Hornets need to get Peja (13.8-4.4) and center Chandler (8.8-8.9) back in the lineup. Peja has missed 11 straight games but could return soon, while Chandler has missed the last four with no real info on when he could be back in the lineup. The Hornets are coming off an embarrassing 101-88 home loss to the Nuggets on Wednesday and as stated earlier, could really use a win in this one. The Knicks are in a terrible rut right now and the Hornets, who rank fourth in PPG allowed (93.4), should be able come away with a win here. They should well-remember the Knicks' 101-95 Jan 12 win in New Orleans, which ended a seven-game winning streak over the New Yorkers. The Hornets have won their last four visits rto MSG and I say they make it five straight tonight, "with room to spare!"
Dennis Macklin
Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks
Prediction: Anaheim Ducks
This week may have been the defining week in the Oiler season as Edmonton plays themselves out of the playoff. Just one-point out of the Eastern Conference eight hole, the Oilers have lost three straight being outscored by 9-4 aggregate. Ducks have won five straight outscoring opponents 22-10 and catch leg weary Oilers playing third game in four nights. Play Anaheim.
DAVE MALINSKY
Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic
PICK: Under
In getting that clutch win over Boston on this court Wednesday night, a victory that has the Magic a step closer to the #2 spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs, they continue to show that they have the talent and maturity to be real factors in the post-season. And in another way, to use one of the emerging phrases of this millennium, they “Get It”.
By that later phrase we mean that Stan Van Gundy and his team are developing an understanding for what it is going to take to keep playing into June. It means grinding out wins right now by not extending the pace more than is necessary, and also about getting seriously down and dirty on defense. They are focusing on the latter so well that they are now #2 in the NBA on our best set of defensive ratings, and finishing at #1 in that category is within their grasp. So where do we best put this into play? By looking for Under opportunities in games in which they can control; in other words, when favored at home. And they are gearing it up just the right way – in six such March settings they are 5-1 to the Under, with those games finishing a collective 71.5 points below the projections, or nearly 12 full points per game. And for the full season they are 5-2 to the Under when favored in double figures, the only games going Over in that span being unavoidable routs of the Kings back in the third game of the season when pace management was not an issue at all, and a shredding of the injury-riddled Clippers in early February. Now they get a chance to face an opponent that they are capable of locking down, having just done that on the road last week, and having had Thursday to prepare, and with nothing on deck until Monday, we can count on them to do just that.
It was a 106-80 Orlando rout in Milwaukee back on March 18th, when the Bucks only scored more than 20 points in a quarter one time. There is little reason to expect that to change here. Mired in a 2-8 slide they are showing the kind of offensive breakdowns that can happen when role players and rookies are in prime roles – Richard Jefferson is the only current starter that has been an NBA full-timer before, and while his legs are still there, the others are misfiring badly. They have played five games in March against teams that currently sport winning records and averaged an anemic 81.8 per outing, and tired only gets more tired at this time of the season for this class of roster.
Scott Rickenbach
Edmonton Oilers @ Anaheim Mighty Ducks
PICK: Anaheim Mighty Ducks
The Ducks are in a price range that is a little higher than I like to venture into for a star rated/guaranteed pick. However, the reason you're reading about Anaheim here is that I do see value with them here, even in this price range! The Ducks are heating up again at just the right time! As for the Oilers, they failed miserably at Phoenix last night and their late season collapse continues. Not only is this a back to back spot for Edmonton but their confidence has been shaken. It won't get any better for the Oilers tonight as they are in a tough scheduling spot and facing a surging Ducks team. Consider a small play on Anaheim on the money line on Friday night.
FairWay Jay
Memphis Grizzlies +3
Thanks to those that bet and supported our GOY winner on the Chicago Bulls last night, and lets fire away with an ugly ‘Dog Friday. We took a shot with Memphis on Monday night and the young Grizzlies are showing improvement despite a lack of wins and ability to finish games. Memphis has lost eight of their last nine games entering the week, but are 5-4 ATS. They were beaten soundly by Miami Monday, and Memphis is tied for the leagues fewest road wins. The Grizzlies figure to bring a solid and motivated effort Friday as they play with four days rest and redemption for a home loss to Sacramento five weeks ago. That embarrassing home loss to shorthanded Sacramento was also the most points that Memphis has allowed in their last 15 games. Sacramento is struggling and the Kings are the leagues worst defensive team. Newly acquired forward Andres Nocioni has missed three straight games entering the week (knee), and while the Kings also are rested, I believe the Grizzlies are capable of a rare road win. Take the 3 points with the young and improving Grizzlies.
Vernon Croy
Oklahoma City vs. Toronto
Play: Oklahoma City +5½
We are getting solid line value here with the Thunder who are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games after failing to cover the spread in their previous game. The Thunder are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games against an Eastern Conference opponent and they are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 trips to Toronto. Toronto is just 2-7 SU in their last 9 games against a Northwest division opponent and they are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of -5.0 to -10.5 points. The Raptors shot just 36.4% in their only game against the Thunder this season and Thunder Star Kevin Durant is listed as probable for this game so I look for him to have a huge night against a Raptors team that has struggled defensively this year.