Dwayne Bryant
HOU +5.5 vs LAL
Not an ideal situation for the Lakers. LA is coming home off a long seven-game road trip and they have the look of a tired team. They also have home court advantage wrapped up throughout the playoffs, so motivation is a huge question mark for LA.
Houston has motivation in a couple different ways. First, they're vying for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Houston currently sits in fourth place in the West, which would give them home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. But the second through seventh seeds are separated by just a few games, so Houston could quickly find themselves on the road in Round 1.
This is also a triple same-season revenge game for Houston, as LA has won and covered all three meetings. The last two were Lakers wins in Houston, which cannot sit well with the Rockets. It's been seven years since LA swept the season series from Houston. With Houston coming off a tough road loss at Phoenix on national TV, I expect the Rockets to be ready to put on a better performance on ESPN tonight.
This figures to be a close battle and the situation favors the Rockets, so I'll grab the points with Houston.
Vernon Croy
San Antonio Spurs vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Under 200
The Spurs are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA with opponents averaging just 93 ppg against them and the Spurs are only averaging 96.8 ppg overall this season. The last time these two teams met the posted total was 208.5 and the final total score was just 180 and I look for a similar result tonight. Both of these teams shot over 40% from beyond the arc in their last meeting and yet this game still went under the posted total by 28 points. The O/U is 2-8 for the Spurs in their last 10 games against a Central Division opponent and 0-4 for the Spurs in their last 4 games when favored on the road. The O/U is 1-11 for the Pacers in their last 12 home games and 1-6 in the Pacers last 7 games against a team with a winning record over .600. The O/U is 10-21 in the Spurs last 31 games as a road favorite of -0.5 to -4.5 points and the O/U is 0-7 for the Pacers in their last 7 home games as a dog. Take the Under as my Friday Night NBA Premium Free Play since this is my only play released for Friday.
LT Profits
Portland Trail Blazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Under 193
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been an Under machine lately, and we look for that pattern to continue at home tonight vs. a defensive oriented team in the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Under is 7-2 in the last nine Oklahoma City games overall, as well as a perfect 8-0 in the last eight Thunder home games. This is not entirely due to bad offense either, as the Thunder are coming off of one of their better defensive performances in a shocking 96-95 upset of the Spurs on the road in San Antonio.
This is not to say that the offense has not been a major contributing factor to this amazing Under run, as Oklahoma City has now gone 16 consecutive games without reaching 100 points. After playing respectable offense in the first half of the year, the offense is now sputtering to the point where the Thunder have averaged just 92.4 points on 42.5 percent shooting the last five games.
Things do not figure to improve tonight vs. a Portland defense that is allowing only 95.1 points per game for the entire season. Sure, the Blazers have allowed over 100 points in three of the last four games, but two of those came vs. fast paced teams (Suns, Jazz) and the third one was in overtime. We look for them to play closer to their normal season average here tonight.
Blazers road games are averaging a combined 191.4 points this season, and given the current struggles of the Oklahoma City offense, you could probably shave a couple of points off of that average here.
Pick: Blazers/Thunder Under 193
John Ryan
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic -3.5
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Orlando as they host Cleveland slated to start at 8:00 EST. I nailed a 10* winner on Washington as they won SU against the Cavs and were 9.5 point dogs too. Cleveland looked tired and more importantly were a one dimensional team last night. Sure, they were caught looking ahead, but they are also fighting for best record too. AiS shows an 83% probability that Orlando will win this game by 4 or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 68-37 ATS for 65% winners since 1996. Play against road teams that are hot teams having won 20 or more of their last 25 games facing an opponent that is a hot team having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. AiS also shows a 90% probability that CLV will score between 93 and 98 points in this game. Note that Orlando is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when they allow 93 to 98 points in a game this season. Orlando is also a stout 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) versus good shooting teams making >=46% of their shots this season; 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season. Take Orlando.
Craig Trapp
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -5.5
Portland needs to finish this season strong if they are going to get a first round home court advantage. Currently they are only a 1/2 game behind for the 4th playoff spot. The Blazers have won three games in a row at home and now are starting a road trip at OKC. OKC is coming off a very good win over SA on WED!! Lets look at records and trends in this match up:
Records
Portland: 47-27 SU, 40-34 ATS
Oklahoma City: 21-53 SU, 42-31-1 ATS
Trends:
-Trail Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
-Trail Blazers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
-Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
-Thunder are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 home games.
At this point of the season love playing teams that have motivation for the playoffs and also love playing the teams that are hot. OKC has not given up but don't think they have the motivation that PORTLAND has. Lets take Portland and Brandon Roy to extend there win streak to 4 games and win easy. SCORE POR 101 - OKC 92
Dennis Macklin
Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild
Prediction: Under
Both these teams suffering from power outages with the L5 Calgary games producing just 18 totals goals and the Flames 6-1-1 under overall in L8. The Wild have scored more than two goals just twice in their L7 and the under 5-1-2 in their L8. Goals would appear to be at a premium here and making the UNDER the play.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Thunder +5.5
Portland has been fool's gold on the road all season long and that will continue to be the case tonight. After a big win over division rival Utah and with Houston up next, expect to see the Blazers get caught looking ahead here. Portland is 5-17 ATS off a win by 20 points or more over a division rival since 1996, losing in these spots by an average score of 91.8 to 94.3. A big win over San Antonio in OKC's last game looks like it could spell letdown as well, but I don't think so as the Thunder will be out for revenge after getting kicked 92-106 the last time they faced off with the Blazers. The Thunder are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games as a home underdog and the Trail Blazers are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Oklahoma City. Take the points.
Black Widow
1* Hawks/Celtics Over 186
Boston has been forced to play small ball with the loss of Kevin Garnett. It hasn’t hurt their scoring, but it has really hurt their defense. The Celtics are giving up 8 more points per game when Garnett is not on the floor. The last meeting between the Hawks and Celtics played in Boston saw 205 combined points with a similar Total of 185.5. These teams just played on March 27th a week ago with 192 combined points in a 99-93 Boston win. We see no way the final score of this game stays under 190 simply because Boston has to play a different style of basketball without KG. On the season, the Celtics average 104.2 points per game at home. As a result, the Celtics are 23-14 OVER (+7.6 Units) in home games this season. The OVER is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The OVER is 6-0 in Celtics last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. The OVER is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in this series. Take the OVER 186 points here.
Greg Shaker
Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies - Over 196
Interesting trends for this game tonight at FedEx Forum with the last 6 contests and 9 of 10 played between these NBA Teams going Under the Total. That would certainly put this play into the "What the Hell are you doing Greg" catagory. Dynamics are different for this one I think, and I am pretty close to the situation happening here in Memphis. These Grizzlies, despite having an awful year, are having fun these last few games and they are getting very sound offensive production because of it. It was the reason why Memphis was the play the other nite verses Washington and it is the reason why they 3 of their last 4 contests outright. In those winning contests they have netted 113 points per game and they are doing it with stronger pace, they are doing it with better shot selection. Their pace has picked up a bit though but not measureably so. Dallas is securely in the playoff picture with a 4 game lead over the Suns and even though they are still chasing Utah for the 7th place spot in the playoffs, that is not much motivation for this crew. That is going to to lead to less intense D for this game and that alone is probably going to give us what we want. The Heat Win a couple of days ago was absolutely huge for Dallas and a breath of relief is filtering through this team right now. They do have the Suns ontap on 4/5 and that is enough to keep the Mavs somewhat unfocused tonight. The Grizzlies have struggled a lot verses the NBA Better D Squads but Dallas is not one of those, allowing right at 100 points per contest. I do think that Dallas will show up tonight, and I do think they will continue to score points with 98 or more of them in the last 4 of 5 contests. I also think that Memphis will continue to do what they have been doing and that is playing loose D, and very loose O. The one thing that did catch my attention? Dallas is OVER at 13-5 last 18 spotted as a favorite. The Grizzlies are 5-0 OVER last 5 at this arena. I think we will see some points tonight and I would play this game up to 200.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
CAL (-110) vs MIN
With their fifth consecutive playoff berth wrapped up, the Calgary Flames will next try to win the battle for first in the Northwest Division and home ice in the postseason. Attempting to stay ahead in both races, the Flames seek their first-ever season sweep of division rival Minnesota on Friday night at the Xcel Energy Center; I expect Calgary to keep the pedal to the metal to insure the Division win! In fact it's interesting to note that Calgary is an awesome 20-12 its last 32 when playing against a team with a losing record! Look for Minnesota to fall to 4-11 its last 15 when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season; play on MINNESOTA!
SPORTS ADVISORS
Atlanta (43-32, 41-33-1 ATS) at Boston (57-19, 39-37 ATS)
The Celtics will try to sweep the season series from the Hawks when these two meet inside TD BankNorth Garden in Boston.
Doc Rivers’ squad has beaten Atlanta all three times this season, but the Hawks have cashed in two of the three games, and the largest margin of victory for the Celtics is just six points, coming on Friday night in Atlanta, 99-93 as one-point road favorites. These two teams played a thrilling seven-game series in the playoffs a year ago with the home team winning every game. The host is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two, and the Hawks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Beantown.
Atlanta has lost four of its last six games overall (2-3-1 ATS), including Tuesday’s 98-85 loss in Philly, failing to cash as a two-point pup. The Hawks have struggled to score lately, going four straight games with 93 points or less and reaching triple digits just twice since mid-March.
Boston has won seven of its last eight (5-3 ATS) but needed double-overtime at home Wednesday to dispose of Charlotte 111-109, coming up well short as an 11-point favorite. The Celtics have been stingy on defense since March 20, holding the opposition to 93 points or less in six of seven games.
The Hawks are on ATS slides of 1-7 against Atlantic Division teams, 3-7 on the road and 2-5 as a road ‘dog, but they are on positive ATS spells of 9-3-1 overall, 10-3 against winning teams and 5-2-1 after a straight-up loss. The Celtics are 11-4 ATS on Fridays, but otherwise it’s all negative ATS trends for them, including 2-10 at home, 4-11 as chalk, 3-9 against the Eastern Conference and 1-6 against teams with losing road marks.
Atlanta is on “under” runs of 5-2-1 when getting two days off and 10-4 as a road ‘dog of between five and 10 ½ points. For Boston, the over is on streaks of 16-6 at home, 12-5 after a non-cover, 4-1 against Southeast Division foes and 12-5 after a non-cover. The over is also 6-2 the last eight times these two have met, but the under has been the play in nine of 12 clashes in Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Cleveland (61-14, 45-30 ATS) at Orlando (55-19, 46-27-1 ATS)
The Cavaliers will try to bounce back after a surprising loss Thursday night in Washington, as they travel to Amway Arena in Orlando to take on the Magic.
Cleveland had its 13-game winning streak (6-7 ATS) snapped last night by the Wizards, losing 109-101 as a 9½-point road chalk. It was the first time since March 13 that a team was able to put up more than 96 points on the Cavaliers, who had allowed just 81.4 points per game in their previous five. Also, Thursday marked the first time all season that the Cavs scored at least 100 points and failed to win.
Orlando had its six-game winning streak (3-3 ATS) halted on Wednesday, losing 99-95 at home to the Raptors as a 10-point chalk. The Magic got pounded on the boards 49-35 and shot just 31-of-76 from the field in the loss, snapping a seven-game home winning streak (4-3 ATS).
These teams have split the first two meetings this season with the host winning both contests, but the Magic covered in both games and have gotten the cash in nine of the last 10 meetings. Orlando scored a 99-88 home win back on Jan. 29 as a five-point favorite and is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes in Florida. Additionally, the underdog is on an 8-2 ATS run in this series.
Cleveland is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven against Eastern Conference teams and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 overall, but this Cavs are only 11-3 ATS in its last 14 Friday tipoffs and a healthy 5-1 ATS in its last six when playing the second night of a back-to-back. Orlando is on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 20-8 against teams with a winning record, 7-3 in Friday games and 4-0 against Central Division squads.
The Cavaliers are on “over” streaks of 7-2 on the second night of a back-to-back, 5-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 5-1 on Fridays and 9-3 as a road ‘dog of up to 4 ½ points. For the Magic, they are on a host off “under” runs that include 19-7 as a home favorite, 7-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 5-1 after a day off and 6-2 against the Eastern Conference. In this rivalry, the under is on a 4-0 run overall and is 4-1 in the last five in Florida.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO and UNDER
Houston (48-27, 36-38-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (59-16, 38-37 ATS)
The Lakers return home after a seven-game road trip and host the Rockets in this matchup between two Western Conference playoff squads.
Los Angeles is coming off a 5-2 road swing (4-3 ATS) that concluded on Wednesday in Milwaukee with a 104-98 win, though the Lakers came up just short as a seven-point chalk. The Lakers have gone six games without allowing a team to score in triple figures and have surrendered just 90 ppg in their last five.
Houston has won five of its last seven (4-3 ATS) but lost Wednesday in Phoenix 114-109 as a 1½-point pup. The Rockets have dropped two in a row on the road (SU and ATS) and are just 18-19 SU (19-18 ATS) on the highway this season.
The Lakers have taken all three head-to-head meetings this season (SU and ATS), including a 111-82 blowout win in the Staples Center back on Nov. 9 as seven-point favorites. Los Angeles is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings overall, including 5-1 ATS in the last six, and the Lakers have cashed in four of the last five in Staples.
Houston is on ATS runs of 35-16-1 after a non-cover, 6-2 on the road and 4-1 following a straight-up loss. Meanwhile, the Lakers are on ATS slides of 1-4 at home, 2-6 against teams with a winning record and 10-23 after getting one day off.
The Rockets are on a bevy of “under” streaks, including 12-5 against the Western Conference, 10-3 after a non-cover, 7-2 on Fridays, 7-1 on the road, 5-1 as a road ‘dog and 6-2 after getting a day off. For Los Angeles, the under is on tears of 16-5-1 as a favorite, 14-3 overall, 8-2 against the Western Conference, 5-0 at home and 8-1 after getting one day off. Finally, the over is 4-1 in the last five matchups between these teams in Hollywood.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL INVITATIONAL
Oregon State (17-18, 16-14 ATS) at UTEP (23-13, 19-13-1 ATS)
UTEP evened this best-of-3 series with Wednesday’s 70-63 victory over Oregon State, but failed to cash as a 10-point home favorite. The Miners, who lost 75-69 at Oregon State in Game 1 on Monday as a one-point road chalk, prevailed in Game 2 despite missing 12 of 14 three-point attempts and 15 of 37 free throws. However, UTEP enjoyed a 15-2 assist-to-turnover ratio, while the Beavers coughed up the ball 11 times.
Oregon State had its four-game winning streak snapped with Wednesday’s loss, but the Beavers once again got the money to improve to 5-0 ATS in the CBI after ending the regular season in an 0-4 SU and ATS drought. Oregon State’s five games in this tournament have been decided by a total of 21 points, none by more than seven points.
The Miners got a huge game Wednesday from guard Stefon Jackson (28 points, 10 rebounds), and Jackson has scored 45 points and pulled down 16 rebounds in the first two contests. Meanwhile, big man Roeland Schaftenaar has led the way for Oregon State with a combined 36 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists and three blocks. Schaftenaar has scored in double figures in four straight games.
Including the CBI, UTEP has won four straight home games and is 7-1 SU (4-4 ATS) in its last eight in El Paso. Conversely, the Beavers have now dropped five straight road/neutral-site games (1-4 ATS).
With the Game 2 result, the SU winner is now 8-1 ATS in UTEP’s last nine games and 12-1 ATS in Oregon State’s last 13 starts.
The Miners have scored at least 69 points in nine straight games and are averaging 76.3 points per game during this stretch. Oregon State is averaging 68.5 ppg in its last four contests after being held to 54 points or fewer in its previous four.
UTEP is averaging 75.5 ppg at home, while allowing 69.1 ppg in going 13-4 SU (7-7 ATS in lined contests). Oregon State has put up just 57.9 ppg on the highway, nearly nine points fewer than its opponents (66.4 ppg), going 4-10 SU (6-7 ATS in lined games).
Along with their current 5-0 ATS run (all in non-conference play), the Beavers are on pointspread upswings of 5-1 after a spread-cover and 4-0 as an underdog, but they’re just 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a SU loss. The Miners are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games, but 0-4 ATS in their last four against Pac-10 foes.
Game 1 in this series flew over the posted total, but Game 2 stayed low. For the Beavers, the under is on runs of 5-2 overall, 5-1 as an underdog, 4-1 after a SU loss and 14-3 as a pup of 7 to 12½ points. UTEP’s “under” runs include 6-2 at home, 5-1 as a home chalk and 6-2 after a non-cover, but the over is 36-16-1 in the Miners’ last 53 non-conference games and 6-1 in their last seven overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic
Speaks volumes that Cleveland is a road favorite here, but considering that they have lost back to back games just one time this season, maybe that shouldn't be such a surprise. Also, one of the most impressive trends we've seen this NBA betting season is the Cavs' 12-0 ATS record when coming off a road loss. Incredibly, they are also 13-4 ATS when playing the 2nd of back-to-back games.
Play on: Cleveland
Carlo Campanella
Oklahoma City returns home from a 3 game road trip on Friday night to host Portland. Oklahoma City has gone "Under" in 24 of their 37 home games this season. Shockingly, Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU & ATS during their last 5 as host in this series, with those games turning into defensive battles, as they've posted a 1-4 (Over/Under) record. Playing the "Under" once again as Portland owns a 9-20 (Over/Under) record against Division opponents this year.
7* Play On UNDER
Ted Sevransky
Miami Heat @ Charlotte Bobcats
PICK: Miami Heat
The Charlotte Bobcats have a distinct ‘flavor of the week’ appeal to them right now. Kornheiser and Wilbon were discussing their playoff chances on PTI yesterday. The New York Times just did a feature story on Larry Brown. It seems as if the entire basketball world is amazed that the Bobcats could beat the Lakers and then take Boston to double overtime in Boston on the second night of back-2-backs.
Charlotte does have a slim chance of sneaking past the Bulls or the Pistons for that final playoff spot in the East. But tonight, the Bobcats are in a very, very tough spot as they try to bounce back from that double OT defeat at the hands of the Celtics. The betting public seems enamored with Charlotte’s strong 45-30 ATS record, third best in the league, including their current 18-8 pointspread run. That run is in the rear view mirror now; Miami is likely to bring their ‘A’ game tonight; and the Bobcats are going to be in a dogfight just to win this game, let alone to win it by any sort of a margin.
Miami has lost four of five, including a particularly devastating defeat on Wednesday Night. Trailing by one point in the closing seconds at Dallas, rookie point guard Mario Chalmers was whistled for charging; Dwayne Wade never touched the basketball on that final possession. Look for an inspired effort out of Miami here against an opponent that they’ve beaten in each of the last two meetings.
Statements like this one from Gerald Wallace following the Bobcats loss in Boston on Wednesday always concern me. “We had a great opportunity to beat the defending champs in their own building. We’ve got to put this game behind us.” Even a Larry Brown coached team comes out flat every now and then. 2* Take Miami.
😀
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EZWINNER'S FREE SELECTION
Date: Friday, April 3, 2009
Game: Oregon State Beavers @ UTEP Miners
Sport: NCAA Basketball
Time: 9:00PM CST
(522) UTEP Miners (-8.5)
The Miners couldn't quite cover the number against the Beavers in game two
of this championship series but I expect them to tonight. UTEP has had a few
days at home to get their legs back and I expect them to shoot lights out tonight.
The Beavers had a great run at home and were competitive in the last game, but
I expect them to loss by double digits here. Lay the points.
2009 Free Selections Record 51-41 (55.4%)
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Friday's free selection: New Orleans - 3 1/2
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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
237 - 158 run 60 %
Friday Over the total Org State 133 1/2
Thursday: Hockey San Jose TY
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Undefeated's system plays now 6 - 1
Today's pick Portland/Oklahoma UNDER 192
Good luck 8)