SPORTS ADVISORS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(6) Philadelphia (42-42, 38-44-2 ATS) at (3) Orlando (60-24, 49-34-1 ATS)
The Magic hope to steal back home-court advantage in this Eastern Conference series when they travel to the Wachovia Center to take on the 76ers in Game 3.
For the second straight game, Orlando let an 18-point lead slip away, but unlike in Game 1, the Magic put it back together in time Wednesday night to get a 96-87 victory to even the series and snap a 1-4 SU slide. However, Orlando failed to cover as a 10½-point home chalk, falling to 1-7 ATS in its last eight games. Courtney Lee led the Magic with 24 points, and Dwight Howard was held to just 11 points, but he still finished with a double-double, grabbing 10 rebounds.
Philadelphia’s rally fell short this time, but the Sixers still moved to 2-0 ATS in this series. Andre Miller racked up 30 points, and Game 1 hero Andre Iguodala filled up the boxscore with 21 points, eight rebounds, seven assists and three steals, as Philly outshot the Magic 46.7 percent-43.0.
Orlando is 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in the last six games between these two teams and is on a 5-2 ATS run in Philadelphia, and the road team in this rivalry has cashed in the last four clashes. However, the underdog is now 25-11 ATS in the last 36 contests.
The Magic are a solid 27-14 SU and 26-14-1 ATS on the highway this year, while the Sixers are 24-17 SU but just 18-21-2 ATS at home.
The Magic are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 starts following a pointspread setback, but along with their current 1-7 ATS skid, they are on spread-covering slides of 0-8 against the Atlantic Division, 1-5 in the Eastern Conference, 1-5 laying points and 1-4 after a SU win.
The 76ers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 starts against Southeast Division foes, covering the last four in a row, and they’re on a 10-3 ATS roll as a home pup of under five points. But they’re still on negative ATS stretches of 2-5 overall (all in the East), 7-15-1 as a playoff underdog, 0-5 after a SU loss and 3-9 following a road trip of seven days or more.
The under for Orlando is on tears of 7-2 overall, 5-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 after a SU win, 8-2 after a day off, 7-2 against the Atlantic Division and 6-2 on the road. On the flip side, the over for Philadelphia is on streaks of 7-1 overall (all against the East), 4-0 after a day off, 7-1 from the underdog role, 4-1 as a home pup, 21-5-2 after a SU loss and 9-4 against winning teams.
Finally, the first two games of this series split on the total, with Game 1 going over and Game 2 staying under.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
(1) Cleveland (68-16, 52-32 ATS) at (8) Detroit (39-45, 34-50 ATS)
After earning two double-digit wins at home, the top-seeded Cavaliers now head to the Palace of Auburn Hills seeking a commanding 3-0 lead over the Pistons in this best-of-7 Eastern Conference series.
After getting a 102-84 win in the series opener, Cleveland scored a 94-82 victory in Game 2 on Tuesday, narrowly cashing as an 11½-point favorite. The Cavs had three players with 20 points or more, led by LeBron James’ 29 points, 13 rebounds and six assists. Mo Williams added 21 points for Cleveland and Delonte West had 20, but it was the defense that dominated as the Cavs held Detroit to 39.5 percent shooting and outrebounded the Pistons 43-34.
Cleveland is on a 7-1 SU and ATS run overall and they are trying to advance past the first round of the playoffs for the third straight year.
Detroit has now lost five straight overall and it is 0-6 ATS in its last six overall. Furthermore, the Pistons are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 contests and 1-8 ATS in their lasts nine against Central division rivals.
Including the first two SU and ATS wins in this series, the Cavaliers have now won five straight head-to-head matchups with the Pistons (4-1 ATS), but they have won just once in their last four tries in Motown (SU and ATS). The home team is on an 8-3 ATS run in this series and the chalk is 10-1 in the last 11 clashes.
Cleveland was 27-14 on the road this season (22-19 ATS) while the Pistons were just 21-20 at home, including a horrible 13-28 at the betting window.
The Cavaliers are on ATS runs of 12-4 on Fridays, 8-0 as a playoff favorite of up to 4 ½ points, 6-0 against the Eastern Conference, 13-3 as a favorite of up to 4 ½ points and 6-1 against Central Division teams. The Pistons are on a plethora of ATS slides, including 1-9 as an underdog of up to 4 ½ points, 11-27 coming off a straight-up loss, 7-18 at home, 0-6 overall and 0-6 against the Eastern Conference.
Tuesday’s game stayed well below the total and has the under standing at 36-15 in the last 51 series clashes, including 17-5 in the last 22 games in Detroit.
Cleveland has stayed under the total in 10 of 14 against Central Division teams, 23 of 32 after a spread-cover and four of five after getting two days off, but it is on “over” streaks of 7-1 on Fridays and 5-1 as a road chalk. Detroit has topped the total in 15 of 23 overall, but otherwise it is on a bevy of “under” runs that include 25-12-1 as a ‘dog of up to 4 ½ points, 25-10-1 after getting two days off, 12-3-1 at home against teams with winning road marks and 4-1-1 as a home ‘dog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
(5) Houston (54-29, 41-41-1 ATS) at (4) Portland (54-29, 46-37 ATS)
Having split the first two games in Portland, the Rockets return home looking to take a 2-1 advantage when they welcome the Trail Blazers to the Toyota Center for Game 3 of this best-of-7 series.
Brandon Roy was unstoppable for the Blazers in their 107-103 Tuesday win in Game 2, pouring in 42 points and grabbing seven rebounds but Portland was unable to get the cash as six-point home favorites. LaMarcus Aldridge added 27 points and 12 rebounds as Portland shot 51.4 percent from the floor. Houston lost despite a 50-percent shooting effort and despite having six players in double figures.
The Trail Blazers, back in the postseason for the first time in six years, have won seven of their last eight overall (5-3 ATS). The Rockets have won six of their last eight overall (SU and ATS).
The host has won four of the five meetings between these two this season, but the Rockets have dominated at the window, cashing in six of the last eight. Houston has won eight of the last 10 overall, including four straight at home.
Portland is 20-21 on the road this season (19-22 ATS) while the Rockets went 33-8 inside the Toyota Center (20-20-1 ATS), including six straight home wins (5-1 ATS) to end the regular season.
The Rockets are in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, but they have lost six straight playoff series and haven’t gotten out of the first round since 1997.
The Blazers are just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 as a road ‘dog, but they are on a host of ATS runs, including 13-5 overall, 10-4 against Western Conference teams, 7-2 on the road and 7-3 after getting two days off. Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a playoff favorite and 10-23-1 following a spread-cover, but it is on ATS streaks of 6-2 overall, 7-1 against Northwest Division teams, 5-0 as a home chalk and 5-1 after a straight-up loss.
The first two games of this series have flown over the total, making the over 6-0 in the last six head-to-head meetings between these two.
For Portland, the under is 25-12 in its last 37 as a road ‘dog and 5-1 in its last six on the highway, but the “over” is on runs of 5-2 after a non-cover, 5-1 after getting two days off and 6-0 against teams with a winning record. The Rockets are on “over” streaks of 5-2 against the Western Conference, 5-0 against teams with a winning record and 5-1 at home against teams with losing road records.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Chicago Cubs (8-6) at St. Louis (11-5)
Two fierce N.L. Central rivals hook up for the second straight weekend, this time at Busch Stadium, where the Cardinals will send Adam Wainwright (2-0, 3.31 ERA) to the mound against the Cubs’ Ryan Dempster (1-0, 5.00).
St. Louis wrapped up a three-game sweep of the Mets on Friday, rolling to a 12-8 victory behind a pair of Albert Pujols home runs. Tony LaRussa’s squad has won seven straight home games and 10 of its last 13 overall, with two of the losses coming last weekend in Chicago. Going back to 2008, the Redbirds are on hot streaks of 17-5 overall, 21-8 at Busch Stadium and 5-2 versus the N.L. Central, and they’ve also won four straight series openers.
Chicago is coming off Friday’s 7-1 loss to the Reds, finishing off a disappointing 5-4 homestand. On the bright side, the Cubs are off to a 4-3 start on the road and they’ve won 25 of their last 36 on the highway. Additionally, they’re 5-3 in their last eight against the N.L. Central.
The Cubs took two of three from St. Louis in last week’s rain-shortened four-game series, and Chicago has now won four of the last five in this rivalry (all at home).
Dempster has pitched exactly six innings in each of his first three starts, giving up two runs in the first contest before allowing four runs in each of the last two outings. However, Chicago lost his debut 3-2 at Houston, but won the last two by scores of 8-5 over the Brewers on the road and 7-5 over the Cardinals at home.
Including last week’s outing, Dempster has faced St. Louis four times since the start of last season, posting a cumulative 3.65 ERA with the Cubs winning three of the games at home but losing the lone road contest. For his career, the right-hander is 6-5 with a 4.73 ERA and 15 saves in 38 games (12 starts) against the Cardinals.
Despite a strong ERA, Wainwright has yet to deliver a quality performance (at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or less allowed) through three starts. Most recently, he surrendered a season-high four runs on six hits in six innings at Wrigley Field eight days ago, but it was enough for a 7-4 victory. Behind Wainwright, St. Louis is on runs of 19-7 overall, 20-8 at home, 11-4 against division rivals, 6-1 in series openers, 4-0 on Friday and 3-0 versus the Cubs.
Including last Thursday’s 7-4 win in Chicago, Wainwright is 2-3 with a beefy 6.08 ERA in 16 all-time appearances (seven starts) against the Cubs. He’s also 16-10 with a 3.10 ERA in 62 career games (30 starts) at Busch Stadium.
These teams stayed under the total in each of their last four meetings in St. Louis in 2008. Other than that, though, both teams are riding significant “over” streaks, including 7-1 for the Cardinals overall, 10-4 for the Cardinals at home, 4-1 for the Cardinals against the N.L. Central, 4-2 for Chicago overall and 6-2 for Chicago against division rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (9-6) at Boston (9-6)
The Red Sox and Yankees renew their storied rivalry when they clash for the first time in 2009, with New York’s Joba Chamberlain (0-0, 5.06) set to oppose Jon Lester (1-2, 5.50) in the opener of a weekend series at Fenway Park.
The Yankees needed 14 innings to get past the A’s on Wednesday, getting a walk-off, two-run homer from Melky Cabrera to pull out a 9-7 victory, their third win in a row. New York produced 33 runs en route to going 4-2 in its first homestand at new Yankee Stadium, but the pitching staff surrendered 50 runs. In addition to its three-game winning streak, Joe Girardi’s club rolls into Fenway on surges of 21-8 overall since last season, 12-4 against the A.L. East, 5-2 on the road, 4-0 on Friday and 6-2 against lefty starters.
Boston swept a doubleheader from the Twins on Wednesday by scores of 10-1 and 7-3, and the Sox have now won seven in a row, including outscoring their last four opponents by a combined 31-6. As part of its seven-game winning streak, Boston is 6-0 at home, 5-0 against right-handed starters and 4-0 versus division foes. Additionally, the Red Sox are on tears of 71-31 at Fenway Park, 8-2 on Friday, 45-18 after a day off and 16-5 in series openers.
The Yankees took the season series last year by a slim 9-8 margin, winning the last three in a row. The visitor had the majority of success in 2008, winning nine of the last 13 battles, with New York going 4-1 in the last five at Fenway.
Chamberlain followed up a solid 2009 debut (one earned run allowed in six innings at Kansas City) with a terrible outing last Friday against the Indians, giving up five runs (all earned) on six hits and five walks in 4 2/3 innings. However, the offense and bullpen bailed him out, rallying for a 6-5 victory. New York is 9-5 in the right-hander’s 14 career big-league starts.
Four of Chamberlain’s last five road starts going back to last June have been quality outings, and he posted a 2.61 ERA in those contests. He made two starts against the Red Sox last year (one home, one road) and gave up a combined three runs on seven hits with 14 strikeouts in 13 innings, winning 1-0 and 5-4. Including relief outings, Chamberlain is 2-0 with a 3.12 ERA in 17 1/3 innings versus Boston.
Lester bounced back from two terrible starts to begin the season (11 runs allowed in 11 innings) and beat Baltimore 2-1 on Sunday, scattering four hits and two walks while striking out nine in seven scoreless innings. With Lester hurling, the Red Sox are on streaks of 36-17 overall and 23-5 at home, but they have lost five of his last six Friday outings and four of his last five overall (playoffs included).
Lester is 17-3 with a 3.33 ERA in 32 career starts at Fenway Park and 2-0 with a 3.42 ERA in four lifetime starts against the Yankees. Three of those starts versus New York came last year, with the southpaw giving up a total of three runs, 19 hits and three walks while whiffing 24 in 22 2/3 innings (1.91 ERA).
The over was the play in five of the last seven clashes between these clubs last year, and 21 of the last 28 meetings in Boston have hurdled the posted price. Additionally, the “over” is on streaks of 10-1 for the Red Sox overall, 45-1 for the Red Sox at home, 7-3 for New York overall, 5-1 for New York against A.L. East foes and 4-0 in Chamberlain’s last four starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
DUNKEL
Portland at Houston
The Rockets are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite between 5 and 10 1/2 points, while the Blazers are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog by the same margin. Houston is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (-5 1/2).
Game 513-514: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.772; Detroit 122.423
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 4 1/2; 178
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+4 1/2); Over
Game 515-516: Orlando at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 117.191; Philadelphia 118.611
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 3 1/2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Under
Game 517-518: Portland at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 124.875; Houston 131.349
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 6 1/2; 180
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 5 1/2; 184 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-5 1/2); Under
MLB
San Francisco at Arizona
The Diamondbacks look to build on their 10-4 mark in Doug Davis' last 14 home starts against teams with a losing record as they take on the 6-8 Giants. Arizona is the underdog pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115).
Game 901-902: Atlanta at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Vazquez) 15.653; Cincinnati (Volquez) 14.923
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-125); Over
Game 903-904: Washington at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Olsen) 15.535; NY Mets (Santana) 14.344
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-265); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+245); Over
Game 905-906: Philadelphia at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Myers) 14.117; Florida (Johnson) 15.217
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Florida (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-145); Over
Game 907-908: Milwaukee at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.729; Houston (Paulino) 16.080
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+115); Under
Game 909-910: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 15.384; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.245
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+130); Under
Game 911-912: LA Dodgers at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Stults) 14.678; Colorado (Cook) 14.982
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+105); Over
Game 913-914: San Francisco at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 13.511; Arizona (Davis) 14.933
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115); Under
Game 915-916: Pittsburgh at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Snell) 14.655; San Diego (Correia) 15.300
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-135); Under
Game 917-918: Texas at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Padilla) 16.138; Baltimore (Uehara) 15.123
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-140); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+130); Over
Game 919-920: Minnesota at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.593; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.261
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Under
Game 921-922: NY Yankees at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 17.017; Boston (Lester) 15.471
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+115); Over
Game 923-924: Toronto at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Tallet) 15.794; White Sox (Floyd) 16.858
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-130); Over
Game 925-926: Detroit at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 16.313; Kansas City (Greinke) 14.906
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+145); Under
Game 927-928: Tampa Bay at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 16.132; Oakland (Cahill) 14.950
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Under
Game 929-930: Seattle at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Bedard) 14.516; LA Angels (Loux) 15.290
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+110); Over
NHL
NY Rangers at Washington
The Rangers are coming off a 2-1 win in Game Four and look to build on their 7-3 record in their last 10 games after scoring 2 or fewer goals in the previous contest. New York is the underdog pick (+180) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+180).
Game 31-32: NY Rangers at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.086; Washington 11.738
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+180); Over
Carlo Campanella
Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons
Cleveland heads to Detroit for Game #3 on Friday night on a 7-1 SU & ATS winning streak, that includes a 2-0 lead in this first round Playoof series. This is one of the few series where the road team will be favored both on the home and on the road, as the Cavs are slight Favorites to win Game #3. Cleveland lead Game #2, 46-32, at Halftime but then fell asleep to have that large margin slip away late in the game to win, 94-82. LeBron James and the rest of the team realized that you can't let your guard down during the Playoffs, and expect a solid wire to wire performance after that wake up call, especially as we find Detroit 0-10 ATS following a loss against a Division rival this season!
Play on: Cleveland
Steve Merril
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5
A pair of 9-6 teams begin this series in San Diego with the Padres hosting the Pirates. Pittsburgh is sending Ian Snell to the hill. He's 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA but he has allowed two earned runs in his last 13 innings pitched. Snell has had good success against the Padres going 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a WHIP of 0.667. Last year he faced San Diego and won 6-3 on the road as a +130 underdog. Padre hitters struggle mightily with the righty hitting .197 as a team against him with Chris Burke (0-6), Kevin Kouzmanoff (0-5) looking for their first hit against him. San Diego sends Kevin Correia to the hill. He is 0-1 with a 4.09 ERA this season only managing to get to 6 innings once in his two starts. Correia is a converted reliever taking up a spot in SD's rotation. He faced the Pirates once last season losing 7-0 giving up three of those runs in 4.3 IP. The Pirates hit .371 against him in limited at-bats. Adam LaRoche (.556), Freddy Sanchez (.600) and Nyjer Morgan (.333) lead the charge against him. The Pirates are hot coming off a sweep of the first place Marlins and the Bucs should continue their momentum tonight.
Craig Trapp
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Cincinnati Reds
Hope everybody was all in with our Free Play yesterday!! The Dodgers pulled off an easy win and hopefully will start a nice winning streak for Craig. Today we have a great free MLB play that Craig has winning easily. Todays free matchup is between the Braves and Reds in Cincinnati today!!
Records
Atlanta Braves 7-8 Vazquez 1-1 (3.00 ERA)
Cincinnati Reds 9-6 Volquez 2-1 (6.46 ERA)
Betting Trends
Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 road games.
Braves are 7-24 in their last 31 games as a road favorite.
Reds are 5-1 in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
Reds are 4-0 in Volquezs last 4 starts as a home underdog.
The Reds are coming home after a long road trip where they were 7-3. Finishing with 2 straight wins over the divisional favorite Chicago Cubs. With great weather predicted Cincinnati will have a big friday night crowd and welcome a very hot Reds team. The Braves are very average on the road the last few years and only going 4-5 thus far this year. Volquez had two average starts to this season but last game looked like his old self shutting down the Astros. He will shut down the Braves today and the Reds bats will give him a few runs to play with early. SCORE CIN 3 - ATL 0
Nelly
Los Angeles at Colorado
Play: Under
Colorado still owns a reputation as one of the highest scoring parks in baseball but the Rockies have only played three home games so far this season and although all three games went 'over' too much is being read into that series with Philadelphia. As a team Colorado is batting just .243 as a team and although the Rockies hit left-handed pitching well the Dodgers pitching staff has been among the best in baseball. Colorado's offense has scored five or fewer runs in nine of the last ten games and expecting an outburst tonight would be a reach.Eric Stults is far from a young pitcher but he is a relative unknown after bouncing back-and-forth between the Dodgers and the minors the past few seasons. This year injuries have given him a regular spot in the rotation and he has delivered. Stults has allowed just three runs in two starts and he is yet to allow a home run. The Los Angeles offense is hitting just .247 away from home and the Dodgers have not been the same team on the road. Los Angeles also faced a night game in Houston Thursday and travel could take a toll for this game.Aaron Cook was one of the best pitchers in the NL last season and his rocky start should be overcome in short order. Cook will get a chance at redemption against, and the last time he faced LA at home he delivered eight innings of shutout ball for a 1-0 win.
James Patrick Sports
Rangers vs. Orioles
Texas and Baltimore usually like a slugfest when they match up and we look for another here in Camdem Yards as these teams average 15.7 rpg here. Our Friday complimentary selection in the Major Leagues is Rangers - O's Over the Total.
Dave Cokin
DETROIT TIGERS VS KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Take: KANSAS CITY ROYALS
The numbers for Zack Greinke are getting downright scary. Go back to last season and over Greinke's last 11 starts, covering 71.2 IP, he's given up just 9 earned runs. That includes a grand total of zero this season. Greinke is as good as it gets right now and he's also a solid 8-4 lifetime against the Tigers. Detroit's impressive rookie, Rick Porcello, has been outstanding thus far, but the Royals and Greinke have to rate the edge tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Atlanta w/Vazquez vs Volquez
The Braves open a 3-game weekend series with the Reds in the Queen City this evening when they send Javier Vazquez to the mound against Edison Volquez. With Volquez nowhere near the plate early on this season (13 walks and 15 strikeouts) and Vaquez in commanding KW form with 6 walks and 25 strikeouts in his last three starts, look for him to improve to and 6-2 in his MLB career team starts against the Reds here tonight.
Cajun Sports
Game: Milwaukee Brewers @ Houston Astros
Selection: 2* Houston Astros +100
Minute Maid Park will be the site of tonights National League battle between the host Houston Astros and the visiting Milwaukee Brewers. This is not one of the Brewers favorite places to play having posted a record of 21-44 their last 65 trips to Houston. The Brewers are 5-15 on the road overall their last 20, 4-10 their last 14 on the road versus right-handed starters and 6-20 their last 26 when facing a starter with a WHIP of 1.15 or less. Milwaukee will send right-hander Yovani Gallardo to the bump with his 1-1 record and ERA of 4.58 on the season. Brewers are 0-4 in his last four trips to the bump during game one of a series, 1-4 his last five starts when installed as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 3-7 his last 10 starts overall. Houston will send Felipe Paulino to the hill with his 0-0 record and an ERA of 0.00 in one start this season which was a home loss to the Reds 4 to 2. The Astros are 25-12 their last 37 home games overall. Houston is 22-16 versus a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start the last 2 seasons and 27-16 versus a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start the last 2 seasons. Comparing their Home/Away splits Houston averages 1.30 more runs at home while Milwaukee is -2.00 runs on the highway. The Brewers are only managing to average 3.2 runs per game when playing on the road with a batting average of .234. Their bullpen has struggled as well with an ERA of 5.47 and a WHIP of 2.108. Houston has been a little more efficient scoring 4.2 runs per game with a batting average of .291 and an OBP of .364. The Astros bullpen has an ERA of 4.35 at home with a WHIP of 1.290. We are going to back the home underdog here as the Houston Astros grab game one of this three-game set.
Graded Selection: 2* Houston Astros 5 Milwaukee Brewers 3
ROCKETMAN
Tampa Bay @ Oakland
Play: Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is scoring 5.8 runs per game against right handed starters this year. Tampa Bay bullpen has been good with a 2.53 ERA on the road this season. Scott Kazmir is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA on the road this year. Kazmir is 6-2 with a 2.70 ERA overall vs Oakland since 1997. Rays are 37-14 in their last 51 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rays are 17-5 in Kazmirs last 22 starts vs. American League West. Rays are 6-2 in Kazmirs last 8 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Rays are 20-7 in Kazmirs last 27 starts as a favorite. Rays are 20-8 in Kazmirs last 28 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Rays are 14-6 in Kazmirs last 20 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game. Rays are 9-4 in Kazmirs last 13 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Rays are 23-11 in Kazmirs last 34 starts. Athletics are 16-39 in their last 55 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Athletics are 8-21 in their last 29 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Athletics are 8-23 in their last 31 vs. American League East. Athletics are 1-9 in their last 10 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Rays are 9-3 in the last 12 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Tampa Bay tonight!
Big Al Mcmordie
Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
At 7:05 pm our member selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland righthander Fausto Carmona didn't have to worry about run support in his last start as his team put up 14 runs in the second inning at the new Yankee Stadium as the Tribe embarrassed the Bronx Bombers 22-4. But somewhat lost in that record-breaking performance was the fact that Carmona did not pitch particularly well, and had his third sub-par performance in as many starts. Although he obviously got the win in that blowout, Carmona should probably be 0-3 as he gave up four runs on six hits in six innings. But perhaps most troubling is that he had four walks and only one strikeout in that outing. The Twins' righthanded starter Nick Blackburn has pitched better this season than his 0-1 record and 5.71 ERA would indicate. Blackburn pitched into the seventh inning in his last start at home against the Angels and came away with a no-decision. More importantly, the Twins are 2-1 when Blackburn has taken the hill this season, and they should continue the success tonight at Jacobs Field where Blackburn is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two career starts. Take the Twins.
Dennis Macklin
Chicago Cubs at St Louis Cardinals
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
Last year Ryan Dempster had a breakout career year but if you really look at the numbers closely, you'll see he did most of his damage in the Friendly Confines of Wrigley. Dempster off to a very ordinary start at 1-0 and 5.00 in three starts, 16 hits over 15 innings. Wainright is 2-0 and 3.31 over three starts but enjoys extra rest knowing Cards are 7-2 defending home turf. Take the homestanding Red Birds in this classic MLB rivalry.
Nick Parsons
New York Rangers +175 @ Washington Capitals
Henrik Lundqvist has all but single-handedly put the Rangers within one victory of advancing to the Eastern Conference semifinals for the third straight year. Washington has outshot (149-99), outscored (8-7) and arguably outplayed New York over the balance of five games, but the Capitals' potent offense found its rhythm only in Game 3's 4-0 win; I expect the Rangers goaltender to once again take the spotlight tonight! Look for NEW YORK to advance to the 2nd round and improve to 9-4 (+6 units) in a road game where the total is 5 or less!
Karl Garrett
NY Yankees at BOSTON -125
Well, here we go once again, the annual Yankees-Red Sox rivalry renews tonight at Fenway Park, and both team come in sporting winning streaks. New York has captured 3 in a row, while Boston has won 7 in a row to improve to 7-2 this season at home.
G-Man will back Boston on their home field to draw first blood, as Jon Lester looks like he has shaken off his 2 early bombings, and has righted his ship. Lester fired 7 scoreless his last time out in a home win over Baltimore.
Lester also went 2-0 in his 3 starts against the Yankees a season ago, working 23 innings while allowing a scant 3 runs to score.
Joba Chamberlain is still a work in progress in the starting rotation, and his last start of 5 runs in just 5 innings in a no-decision against the Indians has the G-Man not trusting Joba in this series opening spot.
Boston's 7-game winning streak is the one that continues, while the Yankees 3-game uptick takes the hit.
Go with the Red Sox minus the small home chalk.
4♦ BOSTON