Info Plays
3* on Baltimore Orioles -129
(Listing Padilla and Uehara)
Reasons why Baltimore wins:
1.) Vicente Padilla has lost it in Texas, giving up runs like it’s going out of style. Padilla has allowed 15 earned runs in 14 innings of work this season for a monster 9.64 ERA. He has given up 23 hits and 5 walks for a 2.000 WHIP as well. Padilla already faced Baltimore once this season, giving up 7 earned runs on 11 hits in only 3.3 innings. Koji Uehara has been solid for the Orioles, especially at home where he has posted a 1.80 ERA at Camden Yards.
2.) System Play. We’ll Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (TEXAS) - allowing 5.2 or more runs/game on the season (AL) against opponent horrible team, outscored by opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season. This is a 33-5 ML System hitting 87.5% over the last 5 seasons. Bet the Orioles at home.
Black Widow
1* on Orlando Magic -3.5
Orlando feels they should be up 2-0 after blowing Game 1 to the 76ers, so they realize they have to steal one tonight in Philly to get back home-court advantage. Winning in Philly hasn’t been a problem for the Magic, as they’ve won 2 straight and 4 of their last 5 visits. The Magic actually played their best basketball on the road all season, going 27-14 SU and 27-14 ATS in road games this year. Orlando is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=33% of their attempts this season. The 76ers are 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The 76ers are overmatched tonight and they probably will not win another game in this series. Take the Magic and lay the points.
Dwayne Bryant
TAM (-130) vs OAK
The Rays went 6-3 versus the Athletics in 2008, including a 4-2 mark at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Facing Oakland could help Scott Kazmir (2-1, 5.40 ERA) bounce back from his latest outing. The left-hander, who is 6-2 with a 2.70 ERA in 11 starts against the A's, allowed six runs and five hits while walking six in four innings of an 8-3 loss to the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. The A's are batting just .203 vs. lefty starters this season (2-7). I like Kazmir in this bounce-back spot against a team that has struggled against lefty starters this season. Tampa's pen (2.45 ERA & 1.14 WHIP on the road) should be able to close the door on this one.Take the Rays with Kazmir over Oakland for a half-unit.
GoodFella
KAN (-155) vs DET
Detroit a late night game in Anaheim last night & had to travel to Kansas City to take on the Royals, in a difficult travel spot for them tonight. RHP Rick Porcello, the scheduled starter Friday night for the Tigers, flew to Kansas City ahead of the team because his teammates won't get in until the early morning hours. "It's kind of mind-boggling to me that we didn't play an afternoon game today," Leyland said. "I just can't buy that. That makes no sense at all to have any major league get in at 6, 7 o'clock in the morning to play a game that same night." Detroit (8-7) allowed 10 runs for the second straight night Thursday in Los Angeles, but unlike the previous night's 12-10 win, the Tigers produced a season-low seven hits and committed a season-high four errors in a 10-5 loss. Detroit will try to bounce back behind rookie right-hander Rick Porcello (1-1, 3.75). Porcello gave up four runs over five innings in his major league debut April 9. Porcello bounced back to earn his first career victory Sunday, allowing one run over seven innings of an 8-2 win in Seattle. "He looked like he belonged there. He still looks a little green at times but you expect that," Tigers manager Jim Leyland said. "Obviously the stuff is there, so we'll take it from there and see what happens." Kansas City hands the ball to their Ace Zach Greinke on Friday night. Greinke (3-0, 0.00 ERA) extended his scoreless streak to 34 innings dating back to last season with a seven-hit shutout of the Rangers on Saturday night. The 25-year-old right-hander, who has pitched 20 innings this season without allowing a run, struck out a season-best 10, one shy of his career high, and walked none in the 2-0 victory. "It kind of blew me away. I think it's almost impossible to do 34 scoreless innings in these days," Greinke said. Greinke is 8-4 with a 3.19 ERA in 17 career appearances versus the Tigers, 14 of them starts. I really see a starting pitching advantage for use here with Zach, but Porcello does have some very good stuff as well, but I would trust the young pitcher much more if he was pitching in his own ballpark. I look for a Kansas City bounceback game tonight, after they gave the game away yesterday to Cleveland.
SPORTSKINGZ
FLORIDA -135
DODGERS -110
SEATTLE -120
Jack Jones
Baltimore Orioles -128 over Texas Rangers
These two teams are both going to score runs, but you have to like Baltimore going against Vincente Padilla today. In his last four starts against the Orioles, Padilla is 0-4 with a 16.20 ERA. He was hammered for seven runs and 11 hits in 3.3 innings earlier this year against Baltimore and gave up five runs in five innings last Sunday. Koji Uehara has pitched just one game at home this year and went five innings with a single ER. He had one bad start and even though that was against Texas I think he gets the job done tonight. The Rangers are just 1-5 on the road this year, while the Orioles are 6-3 in their own park.
Boston Red Sox -121 over New York Yankees
Jon Lester looks like he got back to form in his last outing, going seven shutout innings against the hot-hitting Orioles. He also dominated the Yankees a year ago, going 2-0 with a 1.19 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 3 starts and he's 21-4 at home the last three years. Joba Chamberlain gave up 5 runs in just 4.7 innings last time out and hasn't gone past six innings in any game this year. Boston is also 36-15 against teams whose bullpens are throwing 3.2 innings or more the last two years while the Yankees are 16-31 on the road against left-handers the last three years.
Wunderdog
Tampa Bay at Oakland
Pick: Oakland +120
The Rays are really struggling right now and have dropped seven of their last nine, and look nothing like the team that shocked the baseball world by making it all the way to the World Series last year. Scott Kazmir continues to have location problems which have led him to a 5.40 ERA after three starts, walking six in his last outing. The A's are a team built around on-base percentage. They will patiently wait him out, extending pitch counts for favorable hitting situations. The Rays have managed three runs or less in more than half their games already and have not gotten on track offensively yet. Trevor Cahill hasn't made a name for himself yet, but the top prospect has gotten off to an admirable start with a 2.60 ERA through three appearances. The A's are catching Kazmir and the Rays at the right time with a plus stuff pitcher on the hill. I will go with the A's here.
Vegasflyer Sports
Mike Hillin
Atlanta-105
Houston+120
Dodgers+115 rec 9-8
Jeff Benton
Still on a 19-9 run with free plays – including 10-3 in the last 13 days – despite Thursday’s tough loser on the Royals. We’ll stay on the diamond Friday – and remain in the American League as well – and play the first Yankees-Red Sox battle of 2009 UNDER the posted total.
Both of these teams have been hitting the hell out of the ball over the past week or so – and flying over the total in the process – but I think it was more a result of specific circumstances than anything. Those circumstances being: 1) the Yankees just played six games in their new bandbox of a ballpark, which makes Coors Field look like Petco Park, and 2) the Red Sox have been facing questionable pitching (the played the Twins and Orioles in their last seven games, all at home).
Tonight, though, the strength for both teams will be on the mound. Boston’s Jon Lester, after two shaky outings to start the season, was flat-out dominant on Sunday against the Orioles, going seven scoreless innings and allowing just six baserunners (four hits, two walks) while striking out nine in a 2-1 victory (the only “under” that Boston has played in its last 11 games). Meanwhile, Chamberlain was a victim of new Yankee Stadium in his last start, but in his debut at Kansas city, he gave up just one earned run in six innings.
Also, check out the numbers that both pitchers put up against their respective opponents last year. Chamberlain made two starts against Boston and yielded just three total runs while recording more strikeouts (14) than hits and walks allowed (12). Lester was even better against New York, limiting the Yankees to a total of four runs in three games while striking out 24 in 22 2/3 frames!
Finally, the under is 5-2 in Lester’s last seven home starts and 6-2-1 in New York’s last nine against left-handed starters. Throw in two rested bullpens (both teams had yesterday off) and this will be a much lower-scoring affair than the experts think.
4♦ Yankees-Red Sox UNDER
Craig Davis
Good news and bad news. The bad news is, San Antonio completely failed to show up last night, Tim Duncan scored just four points, and the Spurs gave up in the third quarter. That game was one of the most unentertaining games to watch, and the total didn’t come anywhere near the OVER. After Chicago got drummed by Boston, I knew it just wasn’t my night. The good news is, I don’t often have too many back-to-back-to-back losing nights. That means I’m due for a 3-0 finish tonight and it starts with the NBA playoffs.
Two straight free play winners and we plan to make it three tonight with the Seattle Mariners. Color me unimpressed with the Angels bullpen and it’s not like they’re dominating at home. One of my favorite lefties in baseball, Erik Bedard, takes the hill tonight for Seattle, and despite a 1-1 record and a team record of 1-2 when he pitches, his numbers are staggering. He hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in any of his three starts yet this year, and actually shut out the Oakland A’s in his second start of the season, going 8.1 innings, scattering just three hits and walking one. The dude is lights out when he’s on his game, and so far this season (especially his last two starts), he has been brilliant. Anaheim counters with Shane Loux, and although his numbers are respectable, let’s be real… he’s no Erik Bedard. Loux is 0-1 this season and the team is 0-2 in his two starts. Seattle is playing better than many expected them to at this point in the season and they would love nothing more than to get a much needed road win against a division opponent. Take the Mariners as your FREE PLAY WINNER #3 in a row.
2♦ SEATTLE
Drew Gordon
Cleveland at DETROIT +5
Let's begin this analysis by understanding that Vegas isn't stupid. A perfect example was yesterday's Lakers/Jazz game, where everyone in the country jumped on the Lakers bandwagon and lost outright (except my customers - who got the Jazz as my SIXTH straight 200K NBA winner). Point being, before you go blindly jumping on an enormous public favorite, consider that things aren't as obvious as they may seem.
That being said, I agree that the Pistons have looked like garbage thus far this series. However, if there's any place and any situation in which they are going to finally put up a fight, its tonight at the Palace in Game 3. Forget Game 4, if the Pistons lose tonight, this series is all but over - we know it and they know it - and I expect them to play respond accordingly.
I know the Pistons were a terrible bet at home during the regular season, but you know who else knows that? The guys in Vegas, so relying on that trend is a dangerous propsition in this spot. We all know there's no such thing as a free lunch, especially from an oddsmaker, so jump on what "appears" to be a bargain price on the Cavs at your own risk. I for one, am not taking the bait.
Finally, the Pistons couldn't have played much worse in Game 2, Wallace and Prince were both garbage, Stuckey and Hamilton both shot well under 50%, and the Pistons overall looked lost for large stretches of the contest. I'm not saying they win outright, but look for the Pistons to regroup and come out a hell of a lot more energized and focused than they did Tuesday. Also, sitting on a 2-0 lead, would it really surprise you if the Cavaliers came out a little too overconfident in this contest (similar to the Lakers last night in Salt Lake)? In the end, I'm on the other side of this huge public favorite tonight, as Detroit makes their stand tonight at the Palace.
Small play on Detroit plus the points over Cleveland in Game 3 of this Eastern Conference Playoffs match up.
1♦ DETROIT
Cleveland at DETROIT +5
Let's begin this analysis by understanding that Vegas isn't stupid. A perfect example was yesterday's Lakers/Jazz game, where everyone in the country jumped on the Lakers bandwagon and lost outright (except my customers - who got the Jazz as my SIXTH straight 200K NBA winner). Point being, before you go blindly jumping on an enormous public favorite, consider that things aren't as obvious as they may seem.
That being said, I agree that the Pistons have looked like garbage thus far this series. However, if there's any place and any situation in which they are going to finally put up a fight, its tonight at the Palace in Game 3. Forget Game 4, if the Pistons lose tonight, this series is all but over - we know it and they know it - and I expect them to play respond accordingly.
I know the Pistons were a terrible bet at home during the regular season, but you know who else knows that? The guys in Vegas, so relying on that trend is a dangerous propsition in this spot. We all know there's no such thing as a free lunch, especially from an oddsmaker, so jump on what "appears" to be a bargain price on the Cavs at your own risk. I for one, am not taking the bait.
Finally, the Pistons couldn't have played much worse in Game 2, Wallace and Prince were both garbage, Stuckey and Hamilton both shot well under 50%, and the Pistons overall looked lost for large stretches of the contest. I'm not saying they win outright, but look for the Pistons to regroup and come out a hell of a lot more energized and focused than they did Tuesday. Also, sitting on a 2-0 lead, would it really surprise you if the Cavaliers came out a little too overconfident in this contest (similar to the Lakers last night in Salt Lake)? In the end, I'm on the other side of this huge public favorite tonight, as Detroit makes their stand tonight at the Palace.
Small play on Detroit plus the points over Cleveland in Game 3 of this Eastern Conference Playoffs match up.
1♦ DETROIT
Michael Cannon
Orlando at PHILADELPHIA +3'
Take the points with the 76ers at home tonight over the Magic.
Philadelphia has played Orlando pretty tough in the first two games of this series. They had the great fourth-quarter comeback in Game 1, then almost pulled off another comeback in Game 2 before losing, 96-87.
But they have cashed in the first two games and now they’re listed as the home dog for Game 3.
I know Orlando is the better team, but home court advantage in the NBA playoffs does account for something, and all you need to do is look at Utah’s win over the Lakers last night to see that.
It’s true the Magic jumped out to big leads in the first two games, but they also allowed Philadelphia to come back in each instance and that right there gives the 76ers all the confidence they need for Game 3.
The Magic are on ATS slides of 1-7 overall, 0-8 against the Atlantic Division, 1-5 against the Eastern Conference, 1-5 as a chalk and 1-4 after a SU win.
The 76ers are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games against the Southeast Division and they’re also 10-3 ATS in their last 13 as a home dog of less than five points.
Take the points with the 76ers tonight as they stay within the number.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA
Milwaukee -130 at HOUSTON
Take the Brewers for the road win over the Astros.
It’s official. Houston stinks.
They were shutout last night against the Dodgers and it wouldn’t surprise me if it happened again tonight.
That’s because Yovani Gallardo absolutely owned the Astros in his two career starts against them. The right-hander is 2-0 in two games against Houston and hasn’t allowed an earned run in 15 innings.
The Astros will counter with Felipe Paulino, who was recently called up from Triple-A. The right-hander will have the daunting task of facing a Brewers offense that is coming in red-hot.
Milwaukee has won three of four and third baseman Ryan Braun is coming off a series against the Phillies in which he went 8-for-10 with three homeruns, six RBIs, five runs and four walks.
I see the Brewers continuing their run while the Astros continue to stumble.
Take Milwaukee as they grab the road win.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
GREG SHAKER
Texas Rangers at Baltimore Orioles
Play: Orioles -130
What a difference a venue change makes. Texas continues to struggle away from home in all aspects of their game and this young squad is going to continue doing that unless they can find someone to put out those opponent scoring fires. This team is also not hitting away from home and that is a bad combination. They are batting just below .200 and a mere .175 verses righthanded pitching. The O's have had problems of their own this year stopping their opponents but that has changed somewhat over the last 3 played, and te fact is, they have had a couple of games where they have allowed a ton of runs. 19 verses these Rangers in the last game of their 3 game series earlier this year. They certainly have been more consistant and have been able to gather an 8-8 record so far, 6-3 here at home. Vincenti Padilla is 0-4 with a 16.20 ERA in four starts against Baltimore since 2007, and three of the Orioles offensive leaders have hurt him the most. Brian Roberts, Aubrey Huff and Nick Markakis are a combined 24-for-36 with 15 RBIs in their careers versus Padilla. BINGO! Mr. P was hammered for seven runs and 11 hits in 3 1/3 innings in a loss to the Orioles in that 3 game series in Arlington. Needless to say, the O's are not his favorite team to throw at. Except for the poor performance at the Hitter Friendly Park in Texas, the Orioles Hurler has been very good with just 3 earned runs over 12 innings. I don't know how good he is going to have to be tonight, but I do know that Baltimore is likely to score some runs in bunches.
Tony Karpinski
New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals
Play: New York Rangers +1.5
Henrik Lundqvist has all but single-handedly put the Rangers within one victory of advancing to the Eastern Conference semifinals for the third straight year. He is absolutely shutting down this Capital team and they are baffled.
Washington has outshot (149-99), outscored (8-7) and arguably outplayed New York over the balance of five games, but the Capitals’ potent offense found its rhythm only in Game 3’s 4-0 win. I expect the Rangers goaltender to once again take the spotlight tonight! Look for NEW YORK to advance to the 2nd round and improve to 9-4 (+6 units) in a road game where the total is 5 or less!
Dave Malinsky
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: Over
Summer has come early to St. Louis, with a hot and humid evening with a strong wind blowing out, and that leaves us with excellent value to back a hot offense, and an offense that has been under-valued off of recent outings, against two pitchers that they just faced, and can get good swings against.
The Cardinals are smacking the ball around quite well right now, with eight straight games of five runs or more, and 23 runs against the Mets in this homestand despite never batting in the 9th inning. They lead the N.L. in runs by a wide margin, with only the Dodgers within 1.0 runs per game of their average, and they are first in doubles and home runs, and second in walks. Although we are not convinced that Brendan Ryan’s .304 has much chance to hold up, there is not an easy out anywhere, and that includes Adam Wainwright, who has hit .289 with four home runs in 132 at-bats the last 3+ seasons. They scored four runs against Ryan Dempster in six innings at Wrigley last week, and we will be taking a posture most of the season that Dempster can not repeat his 17-6/2.96 of 2008, which was far outside of his career parameters. With 10 walks in his first 18 innings, with at lest three in every start, and more fly ball outs than ground outs, pencil him as vulnerable here.
Meanwhile the Cubs also scored four runs in six innings off of Wainwright last week, including a home run from Kosuke Fukudome, and after being hand-cuffed by Aaron Harang and Johnny Cueto the last two games we get excellent timing for their pendulums here. With many of the key cogs off to good starts (five of the top six spots in the order will bring batting averages of .317 or higher) there is no reason to believe that the last two games were anything more than running into guys that had great stuff. That has not been the case with Wainwright, whose 2-0/3.31 masks the fact that he has allowed 26 base-runners in 16.1 innings, with a walk rate that is particularly alarming, and behind him Tony LaRussa continues to search for the best bullpen rotation, without necessarily finding the answers.