Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers +150
Zack Greinke has been fantastic for KC, but the Royals are being overvalued here when you consider that they've lost 3 of 4 and are facing a pitcher in Porcello that was sensational in his last start in Seattle. We must also consider that the first home game after a long road trip can sometimes be a letdown spot and that has been the case for the Royals who are just 7-24 against the money line after 5 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. Another thing to consider is that Greinke is only 12-39 against the money line vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. Lastly, it's tough not to play on road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (DETROIT) - very good offensive team (>=5.7 runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA<=4.20) (AL), with an average bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 on the season when this system is 30-13 since 1997. Take the Tigers at a great price.
King Creole
NYY (+120) vs BOS
Why is it that this has been a ROAD-dominated series? Ours is not to question WHY.... but just to follow along with the patterns and tendencies. Dating back to last season ,the ROAD team is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings... and that includes 4-1 IN Fenway Park. Not only that, but we'll get to play ON the Yankees in a couple of very profitable situations for them. Number One, the Yanks might not be the best FAVS in the world... but they are OUTSTANDING Underdogs. New York is 7-1 as a road dog of +150 or less. Number Two, they have done very well against SOUTHPAWS as well. So far this season, New York is hitting .328 vs Lefties while the Red Sox are hitting 60 points LESS against righties (only .266). The Yankees are 6-2 in their last 8 versus Southpaws.
Joba Chamberlain's ROAD ERA is already 1.50 on the season. Dating back to last year, his road ERA is only 2.64. He's faced the Red Sox twice in his short career and is a PERFECT 2-0 with an ERA of 2.08. And IN Fenway Park, the numbers are even better as he threw 7 SHUTOUT innings last year... allowed only 3 hits... and had a K/BB ratio of 9-1. Jon Lester's HOME ERA against the Pin-Stripers is 7.59. If he were on the road, he'd be a great "play ON Underdog". But a a home favorite, we must look the other way. He's also a PERFECT 0-2 in his two NIGHT time starts so far in 2009, with an ERA of 9.00 and an opponent team batting average of .420. Lester might be Boston's best pitcher... but he struggles against fellow AL East division opponents (1-5 L6 starts)... and is 1-4 on Fridays.
Johnny Guild
Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons are back at the Palace, hoping to avoid going down 0-3 against the Cleveland Cavaliers, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Detroit averages 94.2 points per game, while the Cavaliers are allowing opponents to shoot 42.9 percent, an average of just 91.4 points per game. Take LeBron James and crew at The Palace of Auburn Hills. Detroit is just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and a horrible 7-18 ATS in their last 25 home games, 3-6 ATS in its last 9 clashes versus Cleveland in Detroit.
Cleveland Cavaliers -5
Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers
The Magic are a good road team, 27-14 on the road this season, tied with Cleveland and Boston for tops in the Eastern Conference. They have won the last two clashes in Philadelphia and have been a profitable away from home this season, 26-14-1 ATS. Take Orlando! Bizarre as it may be, the Magic play more aggressive on the road.
Orlando Magic -3.5
MLB Computer Picks
Cleveland Indians -150
New York Mets - 280 * * * (Best Bet)
Los Angeles Dodgers -110
Mr A
Cleveland Cavaliers -4½
Orlando Magic -3½
Houston Rockets -5½
Baltimore Orioles -140
Los Angeles Dodgers -110
Gina
Portland Trail Blazers at Houston Rockets
The Rockets have won ten of the last 11 contests against Portland at home. In the last meeting at the Toyota Center on April 5, Houston beat the Blazers 102-88. Go with the Rockets in their house to grab their fifth straight home victory over the Trail Blazers. Houston is 33-8 at home this season and is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games versus Portland.
Houston Rockets -6
Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals
Kansas City's right-hander Zack Greinke (3-0, 0.00 ERA) has pitched 20 innings this season without allowing a run and Detroit's rookie right-hander Rick Porcello (1-1, 3.75 ERA) pitched well last Sunday, allowing just one run over seven innings of an 8-2 win in Seattle. Go with the under in tonight's contest at Kauffman Stadium. The total has gone 'under' in nine of the last 11meetings and the last five in Detroit .
Under - 8½