Jeff Benton
San Francisco (+180) at L.A. DODGERS
Now on a 25-15 roll with free plays after Thursday’s easy winner on the White Sox over the Tigers. We’ll stay in baseball Friday and take a shot with the Giants as a big underdog at the Dodgers.
Los Angeles began life without Manny Ramirez on Thursday, and while the offense did put up a six spot in the first inning and finished with nine runs against the Nationals, the Dodgers still blew the game and fell 11-9. That ended the team’s seven-game overall winning streak and was the first time in 14 games that L.A. lost at Dodger Stadium. That the Blue Crew lost on the day that Manny’s 50-game suspension came down wasn’t a surprise, even against Washington.
But to jump out to a 6-0 lead in the first inning and not put that game away has to hurt and have the entire team questioning if this is the prelude of things to come without their big slugger. Now the archrival Giants come to Dodger Stadium to start a three-game series, and while San Francisco can’t match L.A.’s everyday talent – even with no Manny in the lineup – it is definitely catching the Dodgers in the perfect situation.
Finally, although I haven’t been a Barry Zito fan the last few seasons – who has been? – you can’t argue with his results lately. Over his last three starts, Zito has posted a 1.33 ERA, giving up just 13 hits and four walks while striking out 11 in 20 1/3 innings. Although the veteran lefty didn’t get a decision in any of those three contests, the Giants won all three, including a 5-4 home victory over the Dodgers on April 27.
Going back to last season, the Giants are 7-3 behind Zito and 10-4 in their last 14 games against N.L. West foes. Throw in this massive underdog price we’re getting and I’ll take a shot with San Francisco, which is 11-5 in its last 16 games.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Karl Garrett
St. Louis (+115) at CINCINNATI
The G-Man is on a 6-3 comp play run the last 9 days.
Baseball winner tonight for you, as St. Louis comes to town having won their last pair of games, and their recent track record against the Reds and Johnny Cueto looks pretty good to me.
The Redbirds have bested the Redlegs in 10 of the last 15 meetings, and the last 2 times they have faced Cueto, they have tagged him for 12 runs in just 7 innings of work, handing him a pair of losses.
Joel Pineiro is coming into this one off his first loss of the season, but he only allowed 1 earned run in that loss over 7 innings, so it is not like he was hammered in that outing.
Pineiro went 2-0 in 3 starts against Cincy last season, allowing 5 runs over 18 innings of work.
With Cincy still trying to reach the .500 mark at home, I will take the Cards in the small road dog role.
3♦ ST. LOUIS
Matt Rivers
For Friday take the Rays at Fenway Park.
Last week Brad Penny and James Shields went at it and it was the home Rays who prevailed thanks to two runs in the fourth inning. More times than not I would back the losing team as revenge seems to occur a lot of the time. But Penny is not the same guy we have seen over the years as something is just not right and in the end today with Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury banged up I'll take my chances on Shields and the Rays. Yes Penny was better in that last quality start but I do not see that as a sign of things to come at all. If he hurls another solid six innings then maybe I'll start to change my tune but no way can I do that right now.
Tampa has had Boston's number for awhile now. Last season Joe Maddon's club continuosly beat Terry Francona's, including the ALCS and things have not really changed all that much this season.
Pena, Longoria, Crawford and today's visitors have not been that great early on this season but with the clear superior hurler and the healthier and possibly overall superior club makes me fine with the boys from the Trop.
I'm not calling this a total steal at all as the BoSox are still very good and could win this game but the way Penny has been, more times than not, I just do not see him able to muster enough to outpitch a borderline stud in Shields.
Tony Weston
Today's Selection:
We take a loss last night as the Blue Jays and Angels don’t quite put up the offensive show they should have last night as the Over does not come in.
That’s fine because we’re getting a win tonight as we’re cashing in with some NBA postseason action as we’re taking the Under in the Lakers-Rockets matchup.
The number for this one is set at about 194 points and these two will fall short of that.
Consider that over their last 4 meetings, including two in the postseason, the Under has gone 3-1.
For Houston, the Under has come in 5 of its last 6 games overall and it is on a 5-0 run at home. When installed as a home underdog, the Rockets have seen the Under come in 7 of their last 9 games.
On the other side, the Lakers have seen the Under hit in 8 of their last 9 games when installed as a road favorite and have seen the Under go 20-8 their last 28 when installed as a favorite anywhere.
The Under will continue to be the smart play as it comes in easily in tonight’s playoff game.
3♦ LAKERS-ROCKETS UNDER
Red Dog Sports
San Francisco at Los Angeles
Play: Under 8
Look for an under on Friday night as Manny Ramirez has been suspended and both pitchers have pitched well. Zito has an ERA of 1.33 in his last 3 and Billingsley's ERA is 1.66 in the same time frame. These two are rivals and I think we see a 4-2 type of game.
Premium picks from Jimmy Boyd
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NBA | May 08 '09 (7:05p)
Boston Celtics vs Orlando Magic Orlando Magic
-4-105 at spbook
3* ESPN Prime Time SMASH on Magic -4
No Rafer Alston for the Magic tonight, but I expect them to get the job done anyway. They were able to win in Philly without Dwight Howard, who is a much bigger piece of the puzzle, in their first round series so they shouldn't have a problem at home without Alston. After getting worked in Game 2, you can expect Orlando to play with a much bigger sense of urgency tonight. Orlando has won 20 of its last 26 at home against Boston and 5 of its last 6 at home against Boston the last 3 seasons. It's important to note that the Magic are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 14-3 ATS revenging a loss where its opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Boston defense has not been nearly as good in these playoffs without Garnett, especially on the road. Lay the points.
-= TOP PLAY =-
NBA | May 08 '09 (9:35p)
Los Angeles Lakers vs Houston Rockets Los Angeles Lakers
-115 at bookm
5* NBA Western Conference Playoffs GOTY on Lakers pk
I don't see the Lakers trailing in this series again. Game 1 was a wake up call and LA showed in Game 2 that it would not be out-muscled by the Rockets with its physical play. The Lakers won both meetings at Houston during the regular season, and I expect them to take care of business tonight. The Lakers will be without Fisher, but that gives the Rockets no real advantage as Jordan Farmar is very capable of stepping in. The LA Lakers are 8-0 ATS in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging =102 PPG) against a good offensive team (98-102 PPG), after a win by 10 points or more, are 32-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. This super system makes my last point. The Lakers just have too much fire power to contend with. Take LA!
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MLB | May 08 '09 (8:10p)
Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox
-115 at bodog
4* Major A.L. SMASH of the Week on White Sox -115
The White Sox broke their 4-game skid with a 6-0 win over Detroit last night and I like the Sox to rattle off another one at home here. While Texas has been swinging mighty bats in the early going, they haven't been hitting nearly as well on the road, scoring 1.1 runs per game less than their overall season average. Contreras has not been good for the Sox in the early going, but let's face it, he's due. Plus no real edge goes to the Rangers here because Harrison has struggled so badly in the early going for them. The White Sox are 24-7 against the money line in home games after a win by 4 runs or more over the last 2 seasons and 27-10 against the money line in home games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. But here's the clincher: plays on home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a starting pitcher who is winless after 5 or more starts, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games, are 36-10 since 1997. Bet the Sox.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Kansas City Royals
The road team has won 12 of the last 16 meetings between these teams and Kansas City should continue a red hot six-game winning streak in this series opener. Kansas City has been one of the most profitable teams in baseball so far this season and the Royals have out-scored opponents by 32 runs in just 29 games this season. Kansas City is 8-5 in road games and 10-6 in games against right-handed starters. This is clearly a different Royals team and a team that is ready to win now after years of rebuilding. Gil Meche has been a reliable option at the top of the rotation and he has just one bad start to his credit in six outings this season. Meche is yet to allow a home run in 37 innings pitched and he is backed up by an excellent bullpen that has some of the best numbers in the AL.
The Angels have been a perennial playoff team but injuries have taken a significant toll already this season. The pitching staff has been decimated with injuries which has forced Matt Palmer into the rotation. Palmer pitched well in New York in his last start but he has only pitched in five career big league games and the overall numbers are mediocre. He has benefited from strong run support to pick up two wins and he could be exposed by a Royals team that is hitting well and will have a bit more film on him. Though a rookie, Palmer is 30-years old and has the stuff a of a career minor league forced into action, rather than a young player on the rise.
By a wide margin, the Angels have featured the worst bullpen in baseball. Los Angeles relievers own a collective ERA of 7.52 while opponents are hitting .311. The Angels have blown five save situations and taken eight losses from relievers while picking up a win in the bullpen just once. The Angels bullpen has allowed nearly three times as many runs as the Royals bullpen this season. Given that advantage and featuring a pitcher much more likely to go deep into the game the Royals are an attractive play in a nearly evenly priced match-up.
Dennis Macklin
St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Under
Joel Piniero has been outstanding this year going 4-1 with a 3.24 ERA. He's been even better againts the Reds going 3-0 and 2.22 lifetime. Cincy's Johnny Cueto has been almost unhittable at 2-1 and 1.65 but doesn't always get run support from Red lineup. Cueto hasn't been any mystery to the Cards at 0-2 and 16.19 in two starts making play on the total under far preferable to a side. Take St Louis/Reds under.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Arizona Diamondbacks -130
The D-backs return home after a long 8-game road trip and I expect them to get back in the win column tonight against the lowly Nats. Arizona has won 10 of the last 13 in this series and Washington is just 13-46 in its last 59 road games. Martis has been a pleasant surprise for the Nats, at home, but he has been awful on the road. In fact, the Nationals are 0-4 in Martis' last 4 road starts. Petit has struggled for the Snakes, but he has to pick up his first win sometime, and tonight looks like a good night, especially since the Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days and 7-3 in their last 10 games following a loss. Plus, the Nationals are only 9-21 in their last 30 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. But here's the clincher: Washington is 0-11 against the money line in road games after batting .333 or better over a 3 game span over the last 3 seasons. Take Zona at home.
Dwayne Bryant
CLE / DET Over 9
Cleveland's Cliff Lee is 0-7 with an 8.28 ERA in his last 8 home starts against Detroit. Detroit's Justin Verlander is 1-7 with a 10.24 ERA in his last 8 road starts in Cleveland.Cleveland's bullpen owns a 6.65 ERA and 1.67 WHIP, while Detroit's pen sports a 4.63 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. So we can expect some help on the scoreboard when the relievers come into this one.13 of the last 18 in this series at Cleveland have gone OVER.
Take the OVER in this one.
Brian Joseph
Philadelphia Phillies (-170) over Atlanta Braves
Do you think Cole Hamels is finally 100% and not snakebitten this year? I’m not completely sold but with the Braves tossing out Jo-Jo Reyes, the Phillies can overcome another rocky Hamels outing if it happens. The number is pretty big but Hamels has pitched well in his last two outings even though they were shortened by non-throwing injuries. That being said, the offensive output of the Phillies can overwhelm any poor pitching outing, even one by an ace like Hamels.
Rocketman Sports
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets
Play: Houston Rockets +1.5
Houston is 10-2 ATS this year after a loss by 10 points or more. Houston is a very good 36-8 at home this year allowing only 90.5 points per game on their home court. LA Lakers have lost 4 of their last 6 games overall ATS. Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Lakers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Rockets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. We'll recommend a small play on Houston tonight!
Larry Ness
Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
The 16-12 Cubs and the 16-13 Brewers open a three-game series at Miller Park tonight. The Cubs took two of three games earlier this year (April 10-12) at this venue and while both of these teams qualified for last year's postseason (Cubs won the NL Central with the Brewers grabbing the wild card), each find themselves staring up at the 19-10 Cards after about five weeks of play in 2009. The Cubs placed Carlos Zambrano on the 15-day DL this past Monday with a strained hamstring and will turn to Randy Wells tonight. Wells has pitched well in Triple-A , going 3-0 with a 2.77 ERA in five starts and 21 strikeouts in 26 innings. However, this will be his first major league start. He previous major league experience has consisted of 5.1 scoreless innings spanning four relief appearances last year, three of those games coming as a Cub. The Brewers will counter with Dave Bush (1-0, 4.36 ERA). The Brewers began 2009 just 4-9 but have won 12 of their last 16 games. Milwaukee had gone 99-63 (.611) during the 2006 and 2007 seasons in Miller Park but the team's road woes (59-103, .364) during that same two-year span, kept them a sub-.500 team. However, the Brewers went 41-40 on the road last year (49-32 at home), which allowed them to reach the postseason for the first time since 1982. No pitcher on the team's staff has better mirrored Milwaukee's home/away dichotomy these last three seasons, than tonight's starting pitcher. Dave Bush posted a 33-31 record (4.57 ERA) from 2006 through 2008, with the Brewers going 46-47 in his 93 starts. However, note the home and away breakdowns. The Brewers were just 14-32 (5.58 ERA) in his road starts but 32-15 in his home outings (3.69 ERA). Bush has pitched slightly better on the road (3.68 ERA) in the early going of 2009 than at home (4.91 ERA), but let's focus on his three-year record. I'd be making a bigger play on Bush and the Brewers in this game, if not for his poor lifetime record against the Cubs. He has lost five straight decisions to Chicago since his lone victory (Aug 9, 2006) and is 1-7 with a 4.80 career ERA in 12 starts (team is 1-11) and 13 lifetime appearances against Chicago. Still, I'll make a small play on the Brewers.
GREG SHAKER
MLB: Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox
Play: WhiteSox
I am not going to sugarcoat the performance that the WhiteSox Hurler has put forth this year. The Guy has been horrible. He had one of his worst performances verses these Rangers just a few days ago, allowing 7 runs over 3.1 innings at Arlington. But Harrison has not been too spiffy either as I have stated many times before, the starter in any contest is only part of the puzzle. Having said that, I will say this. Harrison has not shown me anything away from home, with 25 hits, 2 Dingers, and poor K/BB ratios in 16.2 innings of work. I don't see any advantage for either team along this line but I do see one with the Bullpens, as Chicago, despite not winning much lately, has gotten superior work out of their's in the last 10 games played. Mark Buehrle gave Chicago what they needed last night, and that puts this team back into focus, and back in a better situation here at their homepark, verses Texas who beat them 2 of 3 in Texas. It also puts them back into their best hitting posture, as recently they have banged Southpaws at 65 points higher with batting average, and they have beaten lefties the last 14 of 19 here at this park. BINGO! The Rangers have never been a good road proposition, they have lost their last 4 of 5 here in Chicago, and they have traveled halfway across this country following a loss. Offensive numbers, and especially verses righthanded throwing have been down for Texas when they stay in Hotels. Jose's last home thrown game was not too bad, allowing just 3 runs over 7 innings. He does have some good support behind him with secondary pitching. I will lay this small number.
Dave Malinsky
Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox
We certainly did not expect to find the Red Sox at even money, or even a plus return, in this one, but with the early markets creating that opportunity we will not pass it up. With Jacoby Ellsbury and David Ortiz returning to the lineup tonight, and with Fenway Park a complete “House of Horrors” for James Shields, this is an excellent fit.
Shields has worked to an abysmal 0-4/9.56 from this mound in his career, and when the starter gets cuffed around that badly it is not easy for the team to compete – the Rays lost those four starts by a combined 19 runs. And we are not talking about ancient history – just a month ago he got rocked for five runs in 5.1 innings and it could have been worse. Dustin Pedroia and Jason Varitek hit home runs against him in that one, and of the other 10 batters that reached via either a hit or a walk, only three scored. It was a single-game 8.44 that was worse than it appears because of the good fortune of the strand rate. And behind Shields tonight there are problems galore in the Tampa bullpen. J. P. Howell, Dan Wheeler, Brian Shouse and Joe Nelson worked each of the last two nights in the Bronx and carry high fatigue ratings, as does Lance Cormier off of 29 pitches over 1.2 innings last night. And while Troy Percival got Thursday off, he has worked four times in the last six days.
Meanwhile the markets have certainly shown a belief that Brad Penny’s 7.61 ERA over 23.2 innings defines him, but note that on Sunday he finally could have gotten a speeding ticket, taking the radar guns near the mid 90’s for the first time this season. He simply showed up for spring training out of shape but will gradually round into form, and behind him is a bullpen that brings the key arms rested and ready off of splitting back-to-back blowout games that did not produce any late-inning stress.