Scott Rickenbach
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians
PICK: Under 8.5
Justin Verlander of the Tigers shows a 2-2 record and 5.66 ERA in the books. That is giving us value in a situation like this. He's struck out 45 in 35 innings. He's only allowed hitters to hit .257 against him and Verlander is coming off of a back to back stellar outings. Look for another strong effort from him tonight. As for the Indians, Cliff Lee shows an unimpressive 1-4 mark in the books so far this season. However, note that the southpaw has allowed just six earned runs combined in his last four starts!
Cliff Lee was 10-0 at home last season and even though he's 0-2 at Progressive Field this season, note his solid 2.57 ERA at home! This one has all the makings of a pitchers duel. Yes, Lee got hit quite hard at Detroit in his last outing but he's a different pitcher at home. As for Verlander, he's on top of his game right now! Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Cleveland on Friday night. Thank you for checking in here and don't miss Scott Rickenbach's 15-6 (71%) MLB run and long-term 68-44 Hoops Top Play run both being put to the test on Friday night!
CG Betting Consultants
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
Tonight CG's freebie is the Toronto Blue Jays. CG never lays more than -130, except in rare situations. When he only likes two big favorites, he will parlay them. In this freebie you have the Toronto Blue Jays traveling to Oakland to take on the struggling Oakland Athletics. The Oakland A's, 5-8 at home, will start (L) Outman 0-0 with a 4.41 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. Oakland are 2-5 in L7 home games and are 0-4 in L4 vs. right-handed pitchers. The Blue Jays, 9-7 on the road will start (R) Richmond 4-0 with a 2.57 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Toronto are 8-1 in L9 meetings and are 5-2 in L7 meetings in Oakland. Lay the small price on the better pitcher and the better team.
John Ryan
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Philadelphia as the host the division rival Braves. – Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 41-17 making 32.8 units since 2003. Play on any NL team with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season and after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. Atlanta is 3-10 (-9.7 Units) against the money line versus good defensive catchers allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season; 3-9 (-9.3 Units) against the money line versus a NL team with an on base percentage of .340 or better this season. Atlanta’s starter Reyes is just 9-21 (-14.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. Philly bullpen, which was the core strength of the 2008 World Championship, is pitching well again this year posting a 3.63 ERA and is 8-3 on the season. Take the Phillies.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Milwaukee Brewers -120
The Cubs have caught a little bit of fire, by smart money goes on the Brew Crew tonight, as I like their big bats against Cubs no-namer Randy Wells. Plus, the Brewers send Dave Bush to the hill and he has been one of the most profitable home hurlers to back. In fact, the Brewers are 20-8 in Bush's last 28 home starts and an even more impressive 17-4 in Bush's last 21 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Cubs have had Bush's number in the past, but I like his chances tonight with a great lineup behind him. Plus, the Cubs are 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog. Take the Beer Makers!
Nite Owl Sports
Boston Celtics @ Orlando Magic
3 units ATS: Boston Celtics +4
Well, both of these teams have taken turns beating up on each other on the scoreboard, with Magic blowing out to a big HT lead in game on and then holding on for a 5 point win, and Celtics following that with a much better performance in a wire to wire game 2 win. But a foolish “head slap” in the third quarter of game two may go a long way in determining the outcome of game 3, as with magic point guard Rafer Alston suspended and #1 point guard Jameer Nelson already injured and out for the year, the Orlando Magic are running out of point guards. The NBA suspended Alston for this game after viewing films of a blatant “head slap” delivered by a frustrated Alston to the back of Eddie House’s head (a really stupid move, despite Alston’s contention afterward that House had goaded him into doing it). So with Alston in the NBA’s “dog house,” that leaves the point guard dutires for Magic in the hands of 34-year-old Anthony Johnson and seldom-used Tyronn Lue for this Game 3 against the Boston Celtics in their Eastern Conference semifinal series. And we well remember how the Magic struggled mightily for a stretch in mid-season after Nelson went down with his season ending shoulder injury, until Alston (acquired in a trade with Houston during All Star break) had played enough games with Magic to get comfortable directing their offense.
Moreover, despite the obvious talent on this Magic team, we’re not sure they have the “character” necessary to make a serious run at the NBA title. Unlike the Celtics, who came back and almost caught Orlando in game one after a horrible first half (where they showed the obvious “wear and tear” from their tough 7 games series against Chicago, and were down by 18 at HT), the Magic pretty much “packed it in” after getting behind early in game two. And physical play has frustrated the Magic throughout the playoffs and ballooned into a series of foolish retaliations, a weakness that crafty Celtics head coach Doc Rivers will try to continue to take advantage of as the series shifts to Orlando, tied at 1-1. For example, Dwight Howard lost his cool and elbowed Samuel Dalembert in the head in game 5 of Magic’s first round Philly series to draw a suspension for Game 6, although Orlando still managed to win over the “sorry” Sixers, in a game where Magic’s Hedo Turkoglu was ejected for an incident with Dalembert. Then the usually calm J.J. Redick was ordered out of the arena Wednesday in game two at Boston for arguing with officials after he fouled out. Part of being a good head coach is keeping your players under control, something that is not easy when half the players on the team make more $ than the head coach does, but Boston’s Rivers does a much better job of it (and all other aspects of coaching) than Magic’s Van Gundy.
But let's also take a look at some numbers and records which are relevant to this game. First, Boston is 3-1 ATS the last two years in Orlando, including 2-0 TY, with a ten point win and then a two point loss in March, a game in which Kevin Garnett played, but only sparingly (just 16 minutes, as he was being worked slowly back into the line up after missing several games with a knee injury), and was not a factor, scoring just four points on 2-5 shooting. And in that game, Magic stud Dwight Howard was dominant, scoring 24 points on 11-18 shooting and grabbing 21 off the glass, but Magic as a team shot just 37%, and frittered away most of an 8 point lead after three quarters to end up victorious by just two and not cover ATS, allowing the Boston backers to line up at the "pay window" after the game.
And how has Boston done TY on the road when playing the NBA's top defensive teams (Orlando being in the top five defensively, even though they did not look like it in game two)? Other than their two bad losses to Cavs at the "Q," a place where they seem convinced they can't win (and thus don't), they were they were 4-1 ATS (with average margin of loss of just one point) in their other five road games against such teams, with two ATS wins at Orlando and SU wins at SA and Houston on the plus side, and a nine point loss to Lakers at Staples being their only ATS loss out of the five. On the other hand, the Magic were just 4-5 ATS at home TY vs such good defensive teams, with an average margin of victory of just 3 points in those games.
So combining and averaging the results of these two teams in these relevant representative games, and counting the two Celtics-Magic games in Orlando TY just twice instead of four times, we get an 8-5 ATS advantage for Boston, and a projected one point win for Magic, good enough to support this 3 unit ATS pick on Boston getting +4> points.
Mike Rose
Chicago Cubs / Milwaukee Brewers Over
If not for landing on the DL, Carlos Zambrano would have toed the Miller Park rubber for the second time this season. Instead, Randy Wells will make his first big league start. Wells is pretty much an unknown commodity even though he’s appeared in four games in the past. The career minor leaguer is said chomping at the bit to prove himself in his first professional start.
David Bush has pitched exceptionally well for the Brewers thus far. Even though he sports just a 1-0 record, the righty is off to the best start in his six-year career. He’s allowed just 29 hits and 16 earned runs through 33 total innings of work, and boasts a solid K/BB ratio of 25/9. He’s played the role of a piñata against the Cubs though, going 1-7 with a 4.98 ERA in 12 overall starts; his team went 1-11 in those starts. He was robbed of a rare victory against the Cubs earlier this season when Carlos Villanueva surrendered a go-ahead two-run bomb to Alfonso Soriano in the top of the 9th of the Brewers gut-wrenching 6-5 defeat.
Both clubs offenses come into the first of this sports betting series on fire; especially Milwaukee’s. With Wells pretty much an unknown and Bush getting pounded regularly by the Cubs offense, look for tonight’s game to be of the higher scoring variety. The ‘over’ is 12-4-2 the L/18 overall meetings, and it’s a $$$-making 14-4-2 the L/18 times these clubs hooked up in Milwaukee. This rivalry has really turned into one of the best baseball has to offer. Big leads are never safe, and neither team should ever be counted out until the 27th out is rung up. Look for Miller Park’s scoreboard to get a workout Friday night!
Free Selection from Totals4U
Friday's free selection: Atlanta/Philadelphia over 9 1/2
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Free Selection from Mike Wynn
Free Play: Boston w/Penny +100 Over Tampa Bay
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Free Selection from Harry Doyle Sports
NHL: Pittsburgh Penguins - 170
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EZ'S FREE SELECTION
(719) Los Angeles Lakers -1
The Lakers bounced back with a big win in game two of
this series and I expect them to gain back the home court
advantage with a win in this game. Derrick Fisher will be
out due to a suspension, but Jordan Farmar matches up
better with Houston's quick point guards. Kobe will have
another huge game. Lakers win game three.
2009 Free Selections Record 68-56 (54.8%)