SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
(3) Orlando (9-5 SU, 7-7 ATS) at (1) Cleveland (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS)
The Cavaliers, coming off their first loss of the 2009 postseason, look to get back on track when they face the Magic in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals at Quicken Loans Arena.
Cleveland had a 15-point halftime lead Wednesday night, then gave it all away over the course of the final 48 minutes, losing 107-106 as an 8½-point home chalk after posting double-digit wins in its first eight games of the playoffs. LeBron James went off for 49 points, eight assists, six rebounds and three blocks, and everybody in the Cavs’ starting lineup scored in double figures, but they got outshot 55.1 percent to 48.9 percent.
The Cavaliers were allowing just 78.1 ppg in the playoffs prior to Wednesday, giving up no more than 85 points in sweeps of Detroit and Atlanta.
Orlando big man Dwight Howard had another double-double of 30 points and 13 rebounds, and Rashard Lewis scored 22 points, including what proved to be the game-winning 3-pointer with 14 seconds remaining. Hedo Turkoglu added 15 points and 14 assists as the Magic moved to 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games – including two elimination contests in the conference semis against the Celtics -- while the Cavs have failed to cash in their last two games after starting the postseason 7-0 ATS.
The Magic are on an 11-1 ATS tear in this rivalry, including cashing in each of their last six games in Cleveland. This year, Orlando is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against the Cavaliers. The underdog is now 9-3 ATS in the last 11 clashes, and the road team is on a 7-3 ATS roll.
Prior to Game 1, Cleveland had lost just one meaningful home game all season and the Cavs remain 43-3 SU (32-14 ATS) at Quicken Loans Arena this year, including 4-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs. Orlando is 32-17 SU (30-18-1 ATS) on the road (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS in the postseason).
The Cavaliers are still 30-5 SU in their last 35 starts and remain on virtually nothing but positive ATS runs, including 11-2 overall, 37-15 at home, 6-1 in the Eastern Conference finals, 18-6 as a playoff chalk, 40-19 after a non-cover and 54-25-1 following a SU loss. All that noted, in addition to it spread-covering struggles against Orlando, Cleveland is 6-14 ATS in its last 20 games against Southeast Division opponents.
The Magic are on ATS upticks of 7-3 overall, 6-1 against the Central Division, 36-16-2 as an underdog, 16-6 as a road pup and 5-2 getting points in the playoffs. However, Stan Van Gundy’s squad is still just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 overall and 4-7 ATS in its last 11 on the highway.
Wednesday’s contest sailed over the posted price of 184, and the over is 4-0 in Cleveland’s last four conference finals starts. But the Cavs remain on “under” rolls of 6-2 overall (all from the favorite’s role) and 16-6-1 as a home chalk. Likewise, Orlando carries “under” streaks of 22-9 overall (4-1 in its last five), 11-5 on the road and 7-3 with the Magic catching points on the highway.
Finally, despite the Game 1 result, the total has stayed low in four of the last six Magic-Cavs meetings overall and four of the last six clashes at Quicken Loans Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
INTERLEAGUE
Philadelphia (22-17) at N.Y. Yankees (24-17)
The streaking Yankees go for their 10th consecutive victory when they hand the ball to A.J. Burnett (2-1, 5.02 ERA) to open a weekend interleague series against the Phillies and Brett Myers (3-2, 4.50).
New York completed a three-game home sweep of the Orioles with Thursday’s 7-4 victory. The Yankees have won seven straight at home during their winning streak, which comes on the heels of a 2-7 overall slump and a five-game home slide. Joe Girardi’s club is on additional runs of 8-0 as a chalk, 5-0 against right-handed starters, 37-18 at home, 7-1 on Friday and 54-20 when hosting N.L. opponents.
Philadelphia improved to 6-1 on its current 10-game road trip with Thursday’s 12-5 rout of the Reds. The Phillies, who are a major league-best 14-5 on the highway, have scored 50 runs during their current trip. The defending champs are on additional streaks of 23-9 on the road dating to 2008, 4-1 against right-handed starters, 4-1 against the A.L. East, 7-3 as a road ‘dog and 38-16 against teams with a winning record, but they have dropped 18 of their last 25 interleague roadies.
These teams last met in 2006 with the Yankees taking two of three in Philadelphia, and New York has won four of the last five clashes, all in Philly.
Myers has delivered a quality start in five of his last six trips to the mound, giving up a total of three runs on eight hits with 11 strikeouts in his last two outings totaling 13 innings, including Saturday’s 8-5 win at Washington. Philadelphia has alternated wins and losses in Myers’ eight starts this season, but with the right-hander pitching, the Phillies are on positive runs of 4-0 on the road, 7-1 as an underdog and 5-2 on Friday. On the downside, they’ve lost Myers’ last four interleague starts and seven of his last eight against the A.L. East.
Myers is 3-0 with a 4.97 ERA on the highway, and in his only career outing against the Yankees in 2006, he gave up two runs in 6 2/3 innings en route to a 4-2 home win.
Burnett is coming off a solid effort against the Twins, yielding two runs in 6 2/3 innings, but he gave up six hits and six walks and got a no-decision as New York scored a 3-2 win in 10 innings. The veteran right-hander has given up three earned runs or fewer in five of his eight starts as a Yankee.
New York is 3-1 in Burnett’s first four home starts in the Bronx, with the hurler failing to get a decision in any of those contests while posting a 4.15 ERA. Burnett is also 5-7 with a 4.57 ERA in 16 career appearances (15 starts) versus the Phillies.
The over is 5-2 in Myers’ last seven starts overall, 4-0 in his last four as a visitor and 5-1 in his last six on Friday, and six of Burnett’s last seven starts against Philly have topped the total.
Philadelphia carries “over” streaks of 6-2-1 overall, 14-4-1 on the highway, 9-3 as an underdog, 8-0-1 on Friday, 6-2 in interleague road games and 12-5-1 against winning teams. The over is also 10-3-2 in New York’s last 15 at the new stadium (4-0 last four), but otherwise the Yanks sport “under” trends of 4-0 in interleague play and 12-5 on Friday. Finally, the under is 4-1 in the last five Phillies-Yankees clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and OVER
N.Y. Mets (21-19) at Boston (25-16)
The Mets return to the East Coast carrying a four-game losing skid as they send ace Johan Santana (5-2, 1.36) to the hill at Fenway Park for a series opener against the Red Sox, who welcome back Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-1, 12.79) after a six-week stint on the disabled list.
New York took Thursday off after getting swept in a three-game series at Dodger Stadium, losing the three contests by a combined tally of 10-6. The Mets’ current 10-game road trip began with three straight wins in San Francisco and they scored a total of 24 runs, but they’ve since lost four in a row and managed just the six runs in Los Angeles. The team’s four-game slide follows an 11-2 overall run and a five-game road winning streak.
Boston capped a three-game home sweep of first-place Toronto with last night’s 5-1 victory. The Red Sox have won four of their last five, allowing a total of 10 runs during this five-game stretch. Additionally, Terry Francona’s pitching staff has given up three runs or fewer in five straight games overall and six of seven at home.
The Red Sox swept a three-game home series from the Mets in the most recent matchup back in 2006, with a scoring differential of 23-8. Going back to 1999, the home team is 9-2 in the last 11 head-to-head battles, with New York losing four straight at Fenway Park.
The Mets are 55-27 in their last 82 games after an off day and they’re on additional upticks of 5-0 on Friday, 8-2 as a favorite, 5-1 in interleague roadies and 7-2 in series openers. Boston is riding positive runs of 22-10 overall, 79-33 at Fenway Park, 4-0 as a home underdog, 9-2 versus lefty starters, 52-16 in interleague play, 43-12 when hosting N.L. squads and 26-5 against the N.L. East.
With Santana on the hill, New York is on surges of 16-5 overall, 14-4 as a favorite and 7-1 on the road. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 35-17 in Matsuzaka’s last 52 starts overall, 24-9 in his last 33 at home, 5-1 in his last six interleague contests and 7-0 in his last seven on Friday.
Santana is coming off by far his worst start of the season as he gave up six runs (four earned) in seven innings at San Francisco on Saturday, but the former Cy Young winner finally got some run support and came away with a 9-6 victory, which was the last time the Mets won. Prior to Saturday, Santana had given up a total of four earned runs in his first seven starts of 2009 (0.79 ERA) and a total of six earned runs in his last 10 outings dating to last September (0.86 ERA).
Santana is 2-1 with a 2.29 ERA in three road efforts this season and going back to his days with the Twins, he’s 4-4 with a 3.40 ERA in 12 appearances (nine starts) against the Red Sox.
Matsuzaka has been on the disabled list with arm fatigue since leaving his April 14 start at Oakland after getting rocked for five runs in one inning of his team’s 6-5 loss. The veteran right-hander, has given up nine runs on 14 hits (three home runs) in 6 1/3 innings of big-league work this season, including a 4-3 home loss to Tampa in his season debut.
For his career, Matsuzaka is 17-8 with a 4.18 ERA in 31 starts at Fenway Park, and tonight marks his first-ever appearance against the Mets.
The under is 7-2 in Santana’s last nine starts overall, 4-0 in his last four on Friday, 6-2 in Dice-K’s last eight home starts and 5-2 in his last seven Interleague contests. Additionally, the “under” is on streaks of 4-1-1 for Boston overall, 40-19-7 for New York on Friday and 8-2-2 in this periodic rivalry. However, the Mets are on “over” stretches of 9-4-1 overall and 8-1 as a chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Matt Fargo
Arizona D-Backs vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Arizona D-Backs
Oakland dropped a tough game yesterday, losing to he Rays by allowing three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning. That is a difficult loss to overcome and even though the A’s are heading home, they are in a struggle and should not be laying this kind of number. Oakland has the worst record in the American League and it is just 8-10 at home on the season. The pitching has been decent overall but is has not been successful recently as it has posted a 6.18 ERA over the last 10 games. The offense broke out in the final two games in Tampa Bay with seven and five runs but this offense is still very below average as the A’s are hitting .241 on the season, worst in the American League. Arizona certainly is not better offensively as it is hitting just .234 on the season but it is coming around of late with a .255 average over its last 10 games. Most importantly, it is scoring runs, averaging 6.0 rpg over that span. After starting the season 4-8 on the road, the Diamondbacks have won four of their last five games away from home so there is absolutely no edge for Oakland here on its home field. Trevor Cahill gets the start for the A’s and he has had a solid season thus far but it has been extremely inconsistent. In eight starts, he has allowed two runs or fewer six times but he has also allowed seven runs in the other two games. His ERA sits at 5.01 but even more disturbing is his 1.65 WHIP. That does come down at home but it also goes up in night games to 1.98. He will be opposed by Billy Buckner but is back in the big leagues for his first start since 2007 when he was with the Royals. He pitched well in the Minors before getting called up as he allowed three runs in 16.2 innings in his recent efforts and overall he went 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA in 28.1 innings while allowing just one home run. Oakland is just 3-7 in its last 10 games as a favorite and is 6-18 in its last 24 games after allowing five runs or more in its previous game. 3* Arizona Diamondbacks
James Patrick Sports
Red Wings vs. Blackhawks
The World Champions travel to Chicago's United Center to take on the Windy City Boys in Game #3 of the Western Conference Finals. Our Stanley Cup complimentary selection is Detroit Red Wings as the Champs are 24-9 their past 33 games with Chicago and 56-26-6 in Friday action.
Cajun Sports
Cleveland Indians @ Cincinnati Reds
Selection: 2* Cincinnati Reds -120
Great American Ballpark will be the site of a three-game interleague series between the host Cincinnati Reds and their instate rivals the Cleveland Indians with game one set for Friday night and a first pitch at 7:10PM Eastern Time. The Indians troubles this season have been wide spread with pitching and hitting both falling well below preseason expectations. Cleveland entered their ten-game road trip batting .266 overall and a mere .249 with runners in scoring position. Although they have recently seen those numbers improve while facing the Royals and Rays they have struggled against this Reds team during interleague play. The Indians have hit .248 while losing six of their last seven to the Reds; during four straight losses at Great American they could only manage a batting average of .218. The Reds have seen their bats cool of while losing five of their last six games but they could get a huge boost if first baseman Joey Votto is able to return to their starting lineup tonight, he was hitting .366 before missing their last four games due to an inner ear infection. His return could make an immediate impact in the Reds lineup and that’s not good news for an Indians starter who is struggling on the bump this season. Cleveland will send Anthony Reyes to the hill with his 1-1 W/L record and ERA of 6.56 on the season. Over his last four starts Reyes is 0-1 W/L with an ERA of 8.84. Even though the Reds have been struggling themselves of late they hope to be able to take advantage of Reyes as he is 1-2 W/L with an ERA of 8.53 in four starts versus Cincinnati. Reyes is 0-8 W/L (-9.4) during May starts over the last two seasons. Cleveland is 2-8 W/L their last ten interleague road games, 1-6 W/L their last seven interleague games versus right-handed starters, 1-7 W/L last eight interleague games when installed as an underdog, 1-6 W/L their last seven meetings against Cincinnati and 0-4 W/L their last four meetings in the Queen City. The Reds will send Bronson Arroyo to the bump with his 5-3 W/L record and ERA of 6.56 on the year. The Reds are 16-5 W/L (+10.7) in home games during the month of May over the last two seasons. Cincinnati is 12-5 W/L (+9.8) versus teams whose hitters strikeout seven or more times per game. We also want to Play ON MLB (NL) favorites -110 or higher with an OBP =1.550 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse on the season, 36-12 W/L (+21.1). With significant technical support for the host and our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index projecting Arroyo to give his team a quality start we will lay the short price with the Reds as they get another win versus the Indians in the Queen City on Friday night.
Graded Selection: 2* Cincinnati Reds 6 Cleveland Indians 2
Marc Lawrence
Play On: Tampa Bay w/Sonnanstine
When the Rays travel across I-75 to take on the Marlins in Miami tonight in the opener of this three game Interleague matchup they will send Andy Sonnanstine to the hill at Land Shark Stadium. Sonnanstine is 3-0 with a 3.64 ERA inn his MLB career team starts in this series. With Florida spiraling downward, look for the Rays to make it six straight win in this park here tonight.
Scott Rickenbach
San Francisco Giants Money Line (+) @ Seattle
The Giants are absolutely worth a look here. There was a big early line move here and a lot of that had to do with Johnson's struggles and the fact that Vargas had an impressive outing for the Mariners. However, it's so early for Vargas that not so much weight should be put into his early numbers.
As for Johnson, he has recently had to pitch at Colorado and face a couple of tough lineups in his last three starts. Now, going back to Seattle where he pitched so well for so many years, we can absolutely foresee him getting back on track here. He's facing a very weak (and struggling!) lineup in a pitcher's park. That said, we see the Giants giving him enough offensive support here to make San Francisco worthy of a look as a small underdog play on Friday night.
BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
Play on: Washington over Baltimore
In Washington, the Orioles come to town in a game that will go a long way to test the fan base of both clubs. Washington is 23-6 as a chalk in Inter-League play, while the Orioles are 1-10 on Friday's. Washington leads the series winning 7 of 10. Back the Nationals to pick up a big win tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Play: Kansas City Royals
On Friday night the comp play is on KC.Game 923 at 8:05 eastern.These free plays habe been hot the last 2 weeks tonight we have a live dog.KC. has righty K.Davies going tonight vs the Crds and he has pitched lights out in his road starts this year with a 1.89 era allowing just 4 runs in 19 innings work.In his last start in ST.louis he went 7 solid innings allowing just 1 run.For the Cards its righty T.Wellemeyer on the mound.In his home starts he has been terrible this year with a 6.51 era.He is in awful current form with a 6.88 era in his last outings.This is a big rivalry and the Royals usually stay right with the Crds despite the talent edge for the red birds.The Royals over the last 3 years are 23-13 in interleague play and may very well spring another upset.On Fridays card I have a 5 unit Interleague system play that cashes year in and year out.The nba will be up on the afternoon report.For the Free play take the Royals.
Craig Trapp
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Craig kept up his MLB hot streak going 2-1 yesterday. Unfortunately KC did not come through for us but LAA and NYY won easily. Today Craig has one 5 star MLB 5 star GOLDEN GLOVE PLAY and one free MLB Friday Free Play. Lets look at the free plays records, trends, and winning breakdown.
Records
Tampa Bay Rays 21-22, 10-12 away (Sonnanstine 2-4, 7.36 ERA)
Florida Marlins 19-23, 8-12 home (Nolasco 2-4, 7.78 ERA)
Betting Trends
-Rays are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
-Rays are 5-1 in Sonnanstines last 6 interleague starts.
-Rays are 7-1 in the last 8 meetings.
-Marlins are 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games.
Love the American League Powerhouse teams when interleague play starts. Florida has not been good the last month and in fact are 2-8 the last 10 games. The Rays have dominated the Marlins in recent interleague games going 5-1 last year. Both pitchers today have been giving up runs in bunches but the real difference is that FLA has not been facing great lineups like the AL Rays. Sonnastine will welcome the average hitting NL Marlins and will pitch much better in FLA today. The right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA in three starts against the Marlins. No way this game is close the power lineup of the RAYS will dominate tonight. SCORE TB 8 - FLA 3
Jeff Benton
Not only did the Lakers’ pathetic performance at the free-throw line down the stretch last night cost me my 20 Dime Best Bet, it cost me my third straight free-play winner on the game going OVER the total, as it missed by three points. Let’s get back on track Friday with our first interleague freebie of the baseball season, backing the Dodgers against the Angels.
The Halos have had their neighbor’s number recently, but last year, the Dodgers at least managed a split of a the six-game interleague series, winning two of the three contests at home while giving up a grand total of one run – yes ONE run – in those three contests at Dodger Stadium. Tonight, Joe Torre gives the ball to young lefty Clayton Kershaw, who came within six out of a no-hitter on Sunday at the Marlins.
Moreover, the 22-year-old has given up just two runs and nine hits with six walks and 21 strikeouts in 19 innings pitched at home, with the Dodgers winning all three of his home starts. By comparison, the Angels’ Jered Weaver is 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA in five home starts (four of them Angels wins), but 0-2 with a 5.21 ERA in three road efforts (all Angels losses).
Finally, the Dodgers are 17-3 at home this season and 43-14 in their last 57 as a host, while the Halos have dropped four of seven on their current road trip and are just 9-11 as a visitor this season. Back Kershaw and the rested Dodgers – they had Thursday off after sweeping the Mets in a three-game series – at this very reasonable price.
4♦ L.A. DODGERS
Scott Delaney
Nice little 3-0 spurt with the comp plays and tonight we're going to play the low number between the Red Sox and Mets today, as I believe Dice K and Johan Santana will end up in a pitchers' duel.
Diving into the numbers to assist us with this comp play, we find the low number is 7-2 in Santana’s last nine starts overall, 4-0 in his last four on Friday nights, 6-2 when Matsuzaka toes the slab at Fenway and 5-2 in his last seven Interleague contests.
On top of that, the under is on streaks of 4-1-1 for Boston overall, 40-19-7 for New York on Friday and 8-2-2 in this East Coast rivalry.
No question we're in store for a low-scoring game.
Play Mets/Red Sox Under
Tony Weston
We finally break through in a one-run game as the Diamondbacks pull off the win last night and hand us a W in this spot.
We’re staying in Florida as we’re taking the Tampa Bay Rays on the road at the Marlins.
The Rays come into tonight’s game having won 5 of their last 7 games and are 10-6 their last 16 games overall.
Now Tampa battles a Florida team that has gone totally in the tank after getting off to a strong start when the season was first underway.
After starting the season 11-1 the Marlins have won only 8 of their last 30 games overall and are only 2-9 their last 11 games overall.
Over their last 10 home games Florida has only 2 wins and have only won 3 of their last 14 games in front of the home fans.
Tonight, the Marlins will drop another one in front of the home fans as the Rays get over tonight.
3♦ RAYS
Bobby Maxwell
N.Y. Mets at BOSTON +115
We scored our second straight FREE winner Thursday with the Padres as they beat the Giants in San Diego with a ninth-inning rally. Today we've got our third straight comp winner as we go with the Red Sox at home against the Mets.
The Mets go limping back to the East Coast after losing four straight in California. They dropped the final game in San Francisco on Sunday and then got swept in a three-game set in Los Angeles.
Now they go to Boston where the red-hot Red Sox are waiting and ready to welcome back starter Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-1, 12.79 ERA) tonight. We're playing Boston tonight who are coming in off a 5-1 win Thursday and a three-game sweep of the Blue Jays. The Red Sox have won four of their last five overall and allowed just 10 runs in those five games.
Matsuzaka has been on the DL since April 14. In his career, he is 17-8 with a 4.18 ERA in 21 starts in Fenway Park, but today is he first outing against the Mets.
New York has Johan Santana (5-2, 1.36 ERA) on the mound tonight who is coming off his worst outing of the year when he gave up six runs in seven innings in San Francisco on Saturday. In his career against the Red Sox, Santana is 4-4 with a 3.40 ERA in 12 appearances agaisnt Boston, including nine starts.
New York is coming in off a long flight and won't be ready for the Red Sox. And you know they'll get a good effort from Matsuzaka tonight. This one will be low scoring but give the Red Sox the edge.
2♦ BOSTON
Sports Gambling Hotline
Philadelphia at NEW YORK
Another comp play winner on Thursday as the Nuggets-Lakers hold UNDER once again.
Now 7 straight free play winners, 35-19-3 overall comp play run.
MLB total for you tonight, as we like the Phillies and the Yankees to keep the lumber cranking, and Friday night's game in the Bronx to go OVER the posted total.
Both teams went OVER the total on Thursday, as Philadelphia enters this series having played HIGH in 5 of their last 7 contests, while the Yankees OVER last night made it 4 straight in the OVER column. It also ran the new stadium's ledger to 13-5 OVER in the 18 games played there.
There are plenty of big sticks in both lineups, and with ALL 4 of Brett Myers road starts this year playing HIGH, and AJ Burnett still sporting a season ERA over 5, we have a feeling it will be the hitters who have plenty to say about the outcome of this game.
Expect plenty of crooked digits on the Yankee Stadium scoreboard tonight.
Play on the OVER.
3♦ OVER
Chris Jordan
Philadelphia at NEW YORK -155
Nine straight wins and the Bronx Bombers are hosting the defending champion Phillies. Sounds like a winner to me.
After all, what better time to make even more of a statement, like when you're winning as much as New York is, and step right into Interleague play to take on the defending champs.
The Yankees have won seven straight at home during their winning streak, and are on additional runs of 8-0 as a chalk, 5-0 against right-handed starters, 37-18 at home, 7-1 on Friday and 54-20 when hosting N.L. opponents.
And while I know Philly is 6-1 on its current 10-game road trip, they’ve lost Brett Myers’ last four interleague starts and seven of his last eight against the A.L. East.
I'd rather side with A.J. Burnett since the Yanks are 3-1 in his first four home starts in the Bronx. And get this, he's yet to get a decision in the new Yankee Stadium. Here's the perfect opportunity.
1♦ N.Y. YANKEES