Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on LA Dodgers -123
The Dodgers are 17-3 at home this season and I'll back them tonight behind Clayton Kershaw and his 0.95 home ERA. The Dodgers are a perfect 3-0 in his home starts this season. LAD is 11-0 against the money line in home games after a game where the bullpen gave up no runs this season and 11-1 against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -150 this season. Without Vlad or Abreu, I don't see the Halos having enough fire power to compete against Kershaw tonight.
Matt Rivers
For Friday take the Brewers in Minnesota.
This is certainly far from being a mortal lock but the way Manny Parra has been pitching of late and the way the Brew Crew have been taking care of business over the past month or so I'll take my chances with Milwaukee here at this price.
It's tough to go against Ron Gardenhire's Twins at the Metrodome as they win a lot more than they lose there with the advantage of their turf as well as the roof and other factors but over the past month or so Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and the Brewers have been arguably the best team in all of baseball and should get another victory today.
Losing Rickie Weeks for the season certainly did not help anything but this Milwaukee team is extremely athletic and talented and should be just fine against Kevin Slowey today. I like the Minnesota righthander as the guy is good but he is also not a guy that I totally fear at all.
Parra was horrific to start the season but has settled in nicely over his past three or four starts and being a lefty against Mauer and Morneau is not a bad thing. I am not expecting a gem at all from the Southpaw but Milwaukee has been playing the much better baseball of late and therefore will back them here, even on the road.
John Ryan
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Baltimore Orioles
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Baltimore as they face the Washington Nationals in inter-league play slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 112-9 making 59 units since 2003. Play on all dogs with a money line of +100 or higher after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games facing an opponent after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games. Washington is just 17-32 (-15.5 Units) against the money line versus teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons; 9-23 (-18.9 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons; 6-18 (-16.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons; 9-23 (-14.2 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .350 or better over their last 20 games over the last 2 seasons. Zimmerman has not pitched well at all posting an 8.47 ERA over his last 3 starts and a 6.35 ERA for the season spanning 6 starts. Take Baltimore.
WUNDERDOG
Orlando at Cleveland
Pick: UNDER 188.5
Game one in this series was a shootout as the teams combined for 213 points. Orlando shot a ridiculous 55.1% from the field as their three-point game came back to them. As a result, we grab 4 full points in value in game two with the line rising to 188.5. I expect both teams to bring a better defensive effort here. That game one was a fluke. Prior to that game, Cleveland hadn't allowed more than 85 points in a playoff game! They were averaging just 80 ppg allowed in the playoffs. Orlando had allowed 100+ just twice in 13 playoff games, allowing around 90 on average. The teams combined for a 15-6 UNDER mark in the playoffs going into that game. Expect defensive adjustments. This game figures to be more defensive as Cleveland is 24-10 to the UNDER after scoring 100+ points. They are also 28-12 to the UNDER off of one day of rest. Orlando comes into this game at 52-21 to the UNDER after scoring 100+ in their previous game. They are 29-12 UNDER this season vs. teams that average 100+ ppg. The Magic are also 10-1 UNDER the past two seasons following a game in which they made 55%+ of their shots while Cleveland is 11-2 UNDER this steason after scoring 60+ in the first-half of their prior game. The play here is contrarian after seeing these teams light up the scoreboard last game, but I'm looking for things to return to form and for this game to go UNDER.
Yankee Capper
NHL
Detroit/Chicago Over 5.5
MLB
New York Yankees -155
San Diego Padres -140
Minnesota Twins -125
St. Louis Cardinals -125
JACK JONES
Cleveland Indians -108
The Reds have obviously struggled at home where they are just 8-11 on the year. They haven't had much offense in Cincinnati this year, scoring just 4.4 runs per game, and they'll need as many as they can score tonight with starter Bronson Arroyo on the mound. Arroyo is somehow 5-3 on the season, but his numbers a terrible, particularly at home. In 3 starts in Cincy, Arroyo is 1-2 with a 16.34 ERA and a 2.53 WHIP. Cleveland is currently scoring 6.2 runs per game and hitting .296 on the road this year. Cleveland's line up should feast on Arroyo tonight.
Dwayne Bryant
Half-unit play on Orlando Magic +9
Cleveland is a very public team and everyone expects them to bounce back at home and even this series. And while I think they do just that, I also think this number is way too high.
There's a reason Orlando has won three of four against LeBron and the Cavs this season; The Magic match up extremely well with Cleveland. Their perimeter shooting (Turkoglu, Lewis, etc.) combined with Dwight Howard's presence down low presents all kinds of problems for the Cavs.
LeBron was on absolute fire in Game 1, but that also led to his teammates standing around looking more like spectators than anything else. There was little motion, ball movement or strategy. And while I expect LeBron to put the team on his back again and get the win tonight, I don't expect them to win in a blowout.
I like how Orlando matches up with the Cavs, so I'll gladly take +9 with the Magic tonight for a half-unit.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -142
The Tigers enter Interleague play having won 6 in a row to improve to 14-5 at home this season. The Rocks are only 9-14 on the road and they will not have the edge tonight. Detroit sends young gun Rick Porcello to the hill, who is 3-0 with an ERA of just 1.00 over his last 3 starts. He should be plenty good enough to get the job done tonight against a Rockies team averaging only 4.1 runs per game on the road, considering that his team is getting 6.6 runs per game at home. Colorado is 1-14 against the money line in road games after batting .225 or worse over a 5 game span over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 3.7 to 8.2 in these games. Take the Tigers.
Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports
265 - 172 run 60 % (10-2 last 12 )
FREE play FRI Baltimore
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Free Selection from Totals4U
Friday's free selection: Arizona/Oakland over 9 1/2
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EZ'S FREE SELECTION
Game: Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers
(910) Detroit Tigers -$140
(Listing Porcello and Jimenez)
I'm going to keep riding the Tigers as they keep providing
us with free winners! Detroit's rookie starting pitcher Rick
Porcello has great stuff and is starting to put it together. In
his last three starts Porcello is 3-0 with an ERA of 1.00.
I look for him to have another great outing against a Rockies
team that is one of the worst hitting teams in MLB. The
Rockies starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez is throwing 99 mph
fastballs, but he is very hittable and very erratic.
I look for the Tigers win again!
2009 Free Selections Record 76-62 (55.1%)
8)
GREG SHAKER
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
Play: Cubs +135
Note: Great odds here with Zamby on the mound and perhaps Peavy being a bit unfocused with all of the trade talk going on. Zambrano likes the road, and he likes being a road dog. They Cubs are 3-0 last 3 he has thrown away from Wrigley and 6-1 the last 7 times he has done so as a Dog. He is a competitor and his team has lost 4 straight. This has good performance written all over it. Zambrano, who needs one victory for 100 in his career, has had no trouble beating San Diego lately. The three time All-Star is 6-1 with a 1.80 ERA in eight starts against the Padres since 2003, and 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in four career outings at Petco Park. The only blemish came in 2007, when he gave up one run and two hits in a complete game, 1-0 loss. The Cubs do like to play here and are 7-1 the last 8 times they have played this team. San Diego has lost 5 of the last 6 that Peavy has thrown and that is primarily do to their lack of scoring runs. They are not scoring right now for sure but they are managing to win games. However, this can't last forever with SD batting right near the .200 mark over the last 10 played. The Cubs pose a lot more of a threat than the Giants and Reds and at this price a Cubs Play is a Must Do.
Drew Gordon
Kansas City +115 at ST. LOUIS
Despite their issues on the highway, one Royals pitcher I'll happily back on the road is Kyle Davies, who boasts a stellar 1.89 ERA away. True, he's winless on the road thus far this season, but if you saw him pitch at the Angels (1 run over 6 innings), at the Rangers (3 runs over 6 innings), and at the White Sox (7 scoreless) before that, then you know he's pitched well enough to win. Look for him to continue his success in hostile territory tonight at Busch, where he won his only start there back in June, allowing 1 run over 7 strong innings!
Opposing Davies is the Cardinals struggling righty Todd Wellemeyer, who started the month of May well, but had tail-spun in his last starts, allowing 11 runs over his last 10 innings, losing at Pittsburgh and then against Milwaukee in his last one. Like Davies, his ERA at home (1-3, 6.51 ERA) is much worse than his ERA on the road (2-1, 4.91 ERA), so to say Wellemeyer should pitch well at Busch tonight goes against everything we've seen this season!
Finally, while we give the edge to the Cardinals offense overall, of late its been the Royals who've been hitting righties well, batting a solid .275 over their L10 games in that spot. Compare that to the Redbirds, who are batting just .226 vs righties over the same 10-game span, and all of a sudden the plus money is looking mighty good in this one. In the end, I know the Cardinals are tough at home, but remember Kansas City has played well in St. Louis, going 7-3 in their last 10 meetings there! In the end, Royals are the play here, as Davies delivers another solid road start!
Take Kansas City behind Davies over St. Louis and Wellemeyer in this MLB match up.
3♦ KANSAS CITY
Tony Karpinski
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees
Nine straight wins and the Bronx Bombers are hosting the defending champion Phillies. Sounds like a winner to me. After all, what better time to make even more of a statement, like when you're winning as much as New York is, and step right into Interleague play to take on the defending champs. The Yankees have won seven straight at home during their winning streak, and are on additional runs of 8-0 as a chalk, 5-0 against right-handed starters, 37-18 at home, 7-1 on Friday and 54-20 when hosting N.L. opponents.I like A.J. Burnett since the Yanks are 3-1 in his first four home starts in the Bronx and he is getting used to this stadium.
LARRY NESS
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Oakland Athletics
PICK: Oakland Athletics
Think things don't change quickly in the world of sports? Bob Melvin, the 2007 NL Manager of the Year, was fired by the D'backs on May 8. He was replaced by AJ Hinch, the director of the team's farm system, but someone with no managerial experience. Go figure? The D'backs initially went into a 1-6 slide under Hinch but enter this game having won four of five. However, one can't be too confident in playing on the D'backs in this one, with little-used Billy Buckner on the mound. Buckner made seven appearances (five starts) for the Royals back in 2007, posting a 5.29 ERA (he was 1-2 with a 6.49 ERA in his five starts). He made 10 appearances with the D'backs last season, all in relief, pitching only 14 innings. Buckner opened the season with the big club but made three relief appearances early on, allowing seven hits and seven ERs in just four innings (15.75 ERA), so off he went to Reno. He's done OK there, going 2-2 with a 3.81 ERA in seven appearances (five starts) and has been recalled today, to open this three-game series with the A's. The A's will counter with Tom Cahill, who will be making his ninth start of 2009, which is his rookie season. He's had two awful outings, including his last one at Detroit (2.1 IP / 7 hits / 7 ERs). He also allowed seven ERs at home to Tampa Bay on April in just 2.1 innings but one can't ignore the fact that in his other six starts, he has allowed just nine ERs over 36.1 innings (2.23 ERA). Neither team hits much, with the D'backs batting .234 (29th) and the A's, .241 (28th). However, most of Oakland's woes have come vs lefties in 2009, as the A's are 4-11 vs southpaws, while going 11-12 vs right-handers. Cahill has won his last two home starts (2.08 ERA) and he should be just fine here, vs the light-hitting D'backs. The A's are worth a small play.
BEN BURNS
Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres
The Padres were swept at Wrigley earlier this month. They come in as the much hotter team for this weekend's series though. In fact, they've won six straight. Conversely, the Cubs have lost four in a row. For the season, the Cubs are a money-burning 9-11 (-3) on the road while the Padres are a profitable 14-6 (+7.2) here at Petco Park.
After refusing to be traded to the White Sox, Peavy should be highly motivated to deliver a strong performance here. Judging by his recent stats, that's a fairly strong possibility. Looking at Peavy's last three starts and we find him with an excellent 2.45 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. In his last game, he tossed a complete-game 4-hitter, allowing just a single run. He had eight K's and just one walk and the Padres won by a score of 3-1.
Of course, when he's on his game, Zambrano is also capable of dominating. While he's had success vs. the Padres in the past, he hasn't been quite as sharp as Peavy in his most "recent" starts and his road WHIP of 1.474 shows that he's allowing a relatively high number of baserunners. Worse, he's been on the disabled list and hasn't made a start since May 3rd. He's expected to be on a limited pitch count.
Note that Zambrano allowed four runs and five hits in 3 2/3 innings of a rehab start for single-A Daytona. Peavy, who averages greater than seven innings per start here at home, should be able to outlast him. Consider San Diego
Dave Malinsky
Cubs (RL) @ Padres (RL)
PICK: Cubs +1.5
We can understand some of the line movement to the Padres in this one, with a team on a W6 facing one on an L4 drawing the usual attention from streak bettors, and the fact that Carlos Zambrano is coming off of a layoff, and facing a pitch count, an added factor. But that has now taken the Run Line into a range in which we can not resist. The numbers behind the punchless Padres in this category are simply staggering.
San Diego is an awful 7-34 as -1.5 so far this season, including a dismal 2-16 vs. teams outside of the N.L. West. The past two seasons they have gone 22-84 laying -1.5 outside of the division. And it is not as though the presence of Jake Peavy as the starter turns that around – they are 2-7 laying -1.5 with him on the mound this season, and 9-24 in that role over his last 33 starts. Even in the current 6-0 run the Padres have only been able to win twice by more than a single run (both of those only being two-run victories), and they only scored 20 runs in the regulation nine innings in those wins.
Close wins come at a cost, and for San Diego that cost is the likely absence of Heath Bell tonight. Bell has recorded saves in each of the last three games, throwing 43 pitches, which will likely force a night off here, leaving some vulnerability for the late innings. The Cubs face no such issues, with all of the key bullpen arms rested and ready, and that makes it even more difficult for the Padres to ever build any kind of margin.